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DUBAI -- OPEC member Kuwait said on Friday it would be premature to cap Nigerian and Libyan oil production as the two African countries' output needed to stabilize further.

The market is on a recovery track due to rising global demand, Kuwait's OPEC governor Haitham Al-Ghais told Reuters.

In an effort to eradicate a supply glut, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is curbing output by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) until March 2018, while Russia and other non-OPEC producers are cutting half as much.

But oil prices have fallen more than 15 per cent this year due to still-booming supplies and stubbornly high global stocks, which remain way above OPEC targets despite the cut agreement.

A ministerial committee from OPEC and non-OPEC countries, which is headed by Gulf OPEC member Kuwait, meets in Russia on July 24 to discuss compliance with the cuts, from which Nigeria and Libya are exempt due to years of output-sapping unrest.

"All this talk about putting a production cap on Libya and Nigeria is premature," Al-Ghais said. "Data so far is showing that the real spike in production only happened in June."

The official added that output had increased on average by between 300,000 and 500,000 bpd from the two countries combined since the start of the supply-cutting agreement in January 2017.

He said representatives from Libya and Nigeria had been invited to a technical OPEC/non-OPEC committee meeting on July 22 ahead of the ministerial gathering, to give presentations on production from both countries.

"We have to look at the sustainability and stability of production from those countries," said Al-Ghais, who also heads the technical committee. "We need to wait and see more production data before we can make any decision."

The technical committee could make recommendations on Nigeria and Libya, which the ministerial committee would then review. The latter cannot take production decisions but can make recommendations to OPEC and other participating producers, which are scheduled to meet formally in November.

Al-Ghais said that despite production increases from Libya and Nigeria, there were signs of market rebalancing including U.S. government data showing a large drop in stockpiles.

"We feel that the market is on the right way of correcting itself," he said. "Demand will pick up and we expect to see stronger demand in the third quarter."

Originally posted here:
Premature to cap Libya, Nigeria oil output: Kuwait's OPEC governor - BNN

Libya is struggling to control its long borders with Sudan, Chad and Niger.

Italian Interior Minister Marco Minniti on Thursday proposed a pact with Libya to combat human trafficking during a visit to Tripoli to meet mayors of cities affected by the scourge.

"We will make a pact to liberate our lands from traffickers," Minniti told 13 mayors from south Libya, urging them to mobilise against people smugglers.

Libya is struggling to control its long borders with Sudan, Chad and Niger.

Cities in south Libya have become the first stops for many illegal immigrants' journeys to Europe.

EU interior ministers on July 6 pledged to back an urgent European Commission plan to help crisis-hit Italy, which has been overwhelmed by a wave of migrants arriving by sea from North Africa.

"We have a moral duty to eliminate this traffic that has caused deaths... and extraordinary and unacceptable pressure on my country," Minniti said.

Fayez al-Sarraj, leader of the internationally backed Government of National Unity, said "Libya will do its best to relieve the pressure on the Italian coast", according to a tweet by Rome's embassy to Tripoli, the only Western diplomatic mission to have reopened in the Libyan capital.

Minniti also visited Tripoli in May to hand over four patrol boats repaired in Italy as both countries fight illegal immigration.

The situation has worsened since the fall of dictator Moamer Kadhafi in 2011, with smugglers exploiting the chaos to increase the flow of illegal migrants to Italy just 300 kilometres away.

Italy has been urging its EU partners to make a "concrete contribution" to dealing with the crisis both in terms of trying to limit departures from Libya and also taking in some of those who survive the perilous journey.

Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni warned last week that Italy did not have "unlimited" capacity to keep taking in people, having already accepted around 85,000 of the 100,000 people who have arrived this year.

Read the original here:
Italy proposes Libya pact to curb illegal migration - New Vision

WASHINGTONThe Pentagon has expanded the criteria for the Global War on Terrorism Expeditionary medal to include the U.S. campaign against ISIS in Libya.

The geographic criteria for the medal highlights the extent of the American operation to remove ISIS from the Libyan city of Sirte.

The U.S. military operation to liberate Sirte from ISIS was conducted from Aug. 1, 2016 until Dec. 19, 2016, and authorized under the Obama administration. The operation was dubbed Operation Odyssey Lightning.

Service members who participated in Operation Odyssey Lightning from Aug. 1 to Dec.19, 2016 the date Libya ended operations in Sirte, are eligible for the Global War on Terrorism Expeditionary medal.

Odyssey Lightning was launched with the support of Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA) the current U.N.- and U.S.-backed government that came into existence after extensive political negotiations in December 2015.

The operations primary objective was limited in scope to the removal of ISIS in Sirte, according to officials at U.S. Africa Command. However, the criteria for the GWOT Expeditionary medal for the Libya operation includes Algeria, Chad, Egypt, France, Greece, Italy, Libya, Niger, Spain, Tunisia and the Mediterranean Sea from the Straits of Gibraltar.

Despite the limited scope of the operation to liberate Sirte, the size and scale of U.S. air support assets needed to assist Libyan ground forces combating ISIS was quite large.

The expansive geographic criteria for the GWOT-E in Odyssey Lightning is a result of regional and offshore U.S. supporting assets to include air, intelligence, strike aircraft and surveillance assets, according to Maj. Audricia Harris, a spokesperson for the Pentagon.

"At any given time there are approximately 5,000-6,000 U.S. personnel on the continent [Africa]," said Robyn Mack, a spokesperson for AFRICOM. Most of those forces operate out Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti.

The prosecution of U.S. operation against ISIS in Libya was similar in design to Operation Inherent Resolve, where a U.S. led coalition is battling ISIS in Syria and Iraq.

The U.S. has thousands of U.S. troops and supporting air assets outside of Iraq and Syria supporting operations against ISIS to include Kuwait, Qatar, Turkey, Jordan, and Bahrain, according to Harris. Overall, U.S. ground forces in Syria are small in comparison to the tens of thousands of support personnel and air assets outside Iraq and Syria with roughly 5,000 troops in Iraq and a force manning level set at 500 in Syria.

However, the expansive criteria for the Odyssey Lightning campaign also highlights an expanding role of U.S. forces in north Africa and ISIS reach in the region, according to Emily Estelle, an expert covering Libya at the American Enterprise Institute.

It reflects AFRICOMs recognition of the extent of ISISs network in northern Africa. Sirte served as ISISs hub in Africa, from which the group both recruited militants and sent fighters to neighboring states in the Maghreb and the Sahel, Estelle told Military Times.

The U.S. footprint in north Africa has been steadily growing over the last several years because of threats posed by a host of non-state actors like ISIS, Boko-Haram, and al-Qaida offshoots operating in areas of ungoverned spaces.

"We [AFRICOM] maintain several enduring locations such as Garoua, Cameroon; Chebelley, Djibouti; and Agadez, Niger on the African continent which give the United States options in the event of crisis and enable partner capacity building," Mack told Military Times.

In Niger, for instance, the U.S. built a $100 million dollar drone base back in September, primarily to keep tabs on movement of Boko-Haram, according to a report by Reuters.

This base is meant to serve ISR needs across the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin, and I expect the Maghreb as well, Estelle said. The benefit to [Operation Odyssey Lightning] OOL would be tracking any southward movement of ISIS personnel leaving Sirte.

As U.S. airpower pushed ISIS fighters out of Sirte, the fighters attempted to flee the city and Libya. I expect that AFRICOM dedicated ISR assets from Niger to keep track of ISIS fighters attempting to leave Libya to the south, Estelle explained.

In Chad, the U.S. has a strong relationship with Chadian forces, and it is likely the U.S. is operating small training posts and forward operating bases to monitor the movement of militants in the region, Estelle said.

Algeria has a more tenuous relationship with the U.S., but the U.S. has provided Algeria with access to U.S. intelligence to combatal-Qaidain the Maghreb, or AQIM. In turn, Algeria has opened its airspace to U.S. and French air assets, Estelle said.

It is not entirely clear if the U.S. has ever conducted airstrikes or operations outside of Libya in support of Odyssey Lightning. When asked by Military Times, a spokesperson for AFRICOM responded that "asmall number of U.S. forces have gone in and out of Libya to exchange information with local forces and they will continue to do so as we strengthen the fight against ISIS and other terrorist organizations."

Much like the war against ISIS in Iraq and Syria, the U.S. brought to bear the force of tens thousands of U.S. ground forces without having to put a large footprint on the ground in Libya. Outside air assets and small surveillance outposts throughout north Africa and the Sahel assisted in the operation to liberate the city of Sirte from ISIS.

Odyssey Lightning was temporarily reinstated at the request of the Libyan government on Jan. 18, 2017 to strike a couple of ISIS camps outside of Sirte. "The ISIS terrorists targeted included individuals who fled to the remote desert camps from Sirte in order or reorganize," Mack said.

Read more from the original source:
US troops eligible for medal for US operation against ISIS in Libya - Military Times

This article first appeared on the Atlantic Council site.

As the chaos in Libya continues, recent reports indicate that the United States is considering ramping up its diplomatic and military involvement in Libya.

On July 10, CNN reported that the Trump administration could soon finalize a new policy for Libya to expand US presence in the country.

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If realized, a new policy for Libya must prioritize the stabilization of the country in coordination with key European allies. Despite President Trumps initial hesitation to consider Libya of critical importance to US national security, it has become clearer that the United States cannot ignore the security threat that Libya poses to US allies in the southern Mediterranean.

Southern Europe faces three major security threats emanating from Libya: illegal migration, criminal activity, and terrorism.

Libya is the largest crossing point for migrants to Europe; more than seventy thousand migrants reached Italy this year; the number reached more than 180,000 in 2016. Criminal organizations engage in cross-border human trafficking networks from sub-Saharan Africa to the Mediterranean and smuggle products including drugs and weapons.

A member of the Libyan National Army, loyal to the country's east strongman Khalifa Haftar, in central Benghazi on July 6, 2017, after retaking the area from jihadist fighters. Libyan military strongman Khalifa Haftar on July 5 announced the "total liberation" of second city Benghazi, which was overrun by jihadists three years ago. Defense Secretary Mattis and his Italian counterpart recently discussed how to best intervene in Libya. AFP/Getty

Terrorists and other extremist armed groups in Libya benefit from these criminal activities. Libyas porous borders also benefit terror organizations; ISIS has launched attacks from Libya in neighboring countries such as Tunisia as well as in Europe.

These threats are products, rather than causes, of instability and the absence of rule of law in Libya.

The Libyan coast guards cooperation with powerful armed militia groups in the countrys coastal cities has led to criticisms of human rights abuses. UN investigators and activists have accused some armed groups of patrolling migrant sea crossings in order to protect their own criminal interests.

And while ISIS was pushed out of its Libyan stronghold in Sirte in late 2016 with the help of US airstrikes, the group is by no means eradicated from the country. ISIS may seek to draw on Libyas criminal networks as it regroups.

The UN-backed Presidency Council and Government of National Accord (PC/GNA), meanwhile, remain unable to assert authority over the country as it battles both the opposition in Tripoli and faces opponents in the east.

Against this backdrop, Italy has repeatedly called on the international community, including the United States, to elevate solving the conflict in Libya as a priority for global stability.

So far, those calls appeared to have fallen on deaf ears; Trump in March said that he did not foresee a role for the United States in Libya beyond counterterrorism.

However, the report by CNN could indicate that the administrations view has shifted or that individuals within the administration that recognize the importance of stabilizing Libya may prevail in crafting a Libya policy.

Moreover, a recent meeting between US Secretary of Defense James Mattis and Italian Defense Minister Roberta Pinotti emphasized US and Italian cooperation on terrorism and the migrant crisis; and therefore the importance of solving the Libyan crisis.

According to the CNN report, the new policy for Libya would aim to support reconciliation between rival factions in the east and west and would send up to fifty US special operations troops to Libya on a rotating basis to engage in counterintelligence sharing, as well as possible training of Libyan forces.

The Libya policy would also seek to reopen the US embassy in Tripoli and re-establish a US presence in the city of Benghazi.

This plan could face several immediate challenges. The first of which is the ongoing proxy war in Libya that has severely weakened the PC/GNA.

The United States will need to convince Egypt and the United Arab Emirates to cease their proxy support for the House of Representatives and Khalifa Haftar in the east and push for all parties to come to the negotiating table, led by the UN, in good faith.

Meanwhile, on the issue of training, European training programs for Libyan troops have not seen much success, and US efforts to train forces in Syria in the fight against ISIS also witnessed little progress.

The reestablishment of a US diplomatic presence in Tripoli would send a powerful message of support for the PC/GNA. Italys move earlier this year to become the first Western diplomatic mission to reopen its embassy in Tripoli was a significant vote of confidence for the UN-backed government.

However, fighting continues near Tripoli between rival militia forces opposed to and aligned with the PC/GNA. And although Haftar recently proclaimed Benghazi liberated from Islamists by his Libyan National Army, security in the city remains uncertain.

In particular, the statement in the CNN report that the new policy would call for closer cooperation and intelligence sharing with Haftar, should be viewed warily. It is clear that the eastern strongman must be included in a settlement to end the Libyan conflict.

However, in any settlement, a strong central government must be empowered to establish authority and promote good governance; Haftar cannot rule the country militarily. Should Haftar continue to refuse to accept civilian oversight, US intelligence sharing with him and his Libyan National Army would damage the credibility of the PC/GNA.

The United States should pursue a new policy on Libya in coordination with key European partners including Italy that elevates the stabilization of the country as the primary goal.

In doing so, emphasis should be placed on eradicating criminal networks in Libya that exacerbate the migrant issue and empower terror groups. These are the two threats that most significantly impact European national security and therefore the security interests of the United States.

Moreover, greater stability in the country could contribute to empowering the PC/GNA to undertake critical reconstruction efforts.

Italy should continue to press the Trump administration on the importance of stabilizing Libya. Coordinated Western engagement is necessary to end insecurity in the country, address major threats to shared transatlantic interests, and support Libyan efforts to find a negotiated solution to the crisis.

Karim Mezran is a resident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council's Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East.

Elissa Miller is an assistant director at the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East.

Continue reading here:
With ISIS on the Brink of Defeat, Is Trump Planning a Surge in Libya? - Newsweek

The steady recovery of oil production in Libya and Nigeria in recent months has prompted OPEC to consider limiting the output of the two African producers that are currently exempt from cuts in the deal.

The Joint OPEC-Non-OPEC Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) is gathering in Russia on July 24, and has invited Nigeria and Libya to attend to discuss their current production and short-term plans. According to Kuwaits Oil Minister Issam Almarzooq, OPEC might ask the two nations to cap output as soon as possible.

Talk of Libya and Nigeria possibly capping crude production has had little effect on the market, and analysts doubt that a limit would be lower than the current production of the two countries. Observers think that the two producers would agree to cap output when they reach their short-term production targets, which is 1.25 million bpd for Libya and 1.8 million bpd for Nigeria.

If those two OPEC members were to limit output when they reach their desired respective levels of production, all other participants may have to review their quotas to compensate for the African duos increased output, some analysts reckon.

That is, if OPEC and friends really want to do whatever it takes to erase the global oversupply and lift the price of oil.

According to OPECs latest Monthly Oil Market Report, Libya and Nigeria contributed the most to the 393,000-bpd increase in the cartels total crude output in June compared to May. Libyas output jumped by 127,000 bpd to 852,000 bpd, while Nigerian crude production rose by 96,700 bpd to 1.733 million bpd.

The combined Libya-Nigeria production growth last month was nearly half of what OPECs biggest producer, Saudi Arabia, must cut under the deal. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, the two exempt producers increased their combined output in the past two monthsMay and Juneby 440,000 bpd, almost the entire volume that Saudi Arabia is taking off the market each month.

So production growth in Libya and Nigeria is really offsetting a large part of the OPEC cuts. Related:The Major Wildcard That Could Send Oil To $120

Libya is right on track to reach its goal to raise crude output to1 million bpdby the end of July.

Nigeria, for its part, signaled on Wednesday that it would be willing to cap when it reaches a stable production of 1.8 million bpd, according to Oil Minister Emmanuel Kachikwu.

"You have to watch it for a couple of months to be sure that what you see as peace is in fact sustained, Kachikwu noted.

Nigeria is very close to reaching 1.8 million bpd, with June production averaging 1.733 million bpd per OPEC secondary sources.

According to Nordine Ait-Laoussine, president of Geneva-based consultant Nalcosa and former energy minister of Algeria, bringing Libya and Nigeria on board without revising the quotas for other members would only be exacerbating the problem of excess supply.

Its not going to be easy just to say Maybe we should just bring Nigeria and Libya into the line and it will be fine, Ait-Laoussine told Bloomberg.

And if Libya and Nigeria do reach their desired production levels, total OPEC output could be close to 33 million bpd by the end of this year, according to Ait-Laoussine.

OPEC would be producing too much if the other quotas are left unchanged, he said.

However, revising the parameters for the cuts would be like OPEC opening a big can of worms, Thomas Pugh, commodities economist at Capital Economics Ltd, told Bloomberg. There is little political will to deepen the cuts, according to Pugh.

Analysts and investment banks have been warning for some time that without steeper cuts by OPEC, oil prices could slip to US$30. The deeper cuts narrative has been going on since the market and OPEC itself had to admit that the oversupply is not diminishing at the pace the cartel had expected. In one of the most recent comments on the topic, OPECs Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo said that no further cuts are on the agenda for the July meeting of the JMMC in Russia.

While OPEC and Russian officials are saying that nothing is off the table and nothing is on the table every other day, analysts and investment banks are increasingly citing rising supply from Libya and Nigeria as the main driver together with U.S. shale for the drastic cuts in their oil price forecasts. Earlier this week, BNP Paribas slashed its WTI forecast for 2017 by US$8 to US$49 per barrel and the Brent forecast by US$9 to US$51. The cuts in the 2018 forecasts were even more drastic - down US$16 to US$45 for WTI, and US$15 off the Brent price projection, to US$48. BNP Paribas is the latest bank to slash forecasts in a series of cuts in oil price projections that major banks have made over the past month.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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Capping Libya, Nigeria Output Won't Help Erase The Glut - OilPrice.com