News Roundup - Thu, Jul 13, 2017 The Libya Observer Benghazi Defense Brigades said it has nothing to do with political conflicts or military ones in the west of Libya, denying the news on social media that said it was involved in the clashes in east Tripoli. It added that such news aims at deforming the ... |
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News Roundup - Thu, Jul 13, 2017 - The Libya Observer
A series of military victories over extremist Islamic groups along Libya's Mediterranean coastline has forced hundreds of militants, including Islamic State fighters, to seek refuge in the vast deserts of the North African nation, already home to militias from neighboring countries, cross-border criminal gangs and mercenaries.
Libya's lawless, desolate center and south provides a sanctuary for militants to reorganize, recruit, train and potentially plot for a comeback. That is especially important at a time when the Islamic State group lost not only its urban holdings in Libya but is crumbling in Iraq and Syria.
In Libya's remote stretches near the borders with Egypt, Sudan, Chad, Algeria, Niger and Tunisia, multiple armed groups already operate freely. Arms are easily available. Human trafficking and cross-border smuggling, especially fuel, are rampant and lucrative.
Lack of effective border controls has allowed militiamen fighting the Sudanese and Chadian governments to set up camp inside Libya. Alongside them came soldiers-for-hire from places as far afield as Cameroon. Tribal and ethnic rivalries frequently boil over into deadly strife.
Militants "travel back and forth near the southern borders and all the way to the central parts of the country, robbing travelling cars and attacking civilians," said Brig. Gen. Abdullah Nouredeen of the Libyan National Army. "They sometimes work close to the borders since there is money to be made from smuggling and arms trading."
The migration of the militants comes after rivals drove them out of coastal cities like Sirte, Benghazi, Sebratha and Derna. Their dispersion into the desert undermines prospects for a return of stability in oil-rich Libya.
Claudia Gazzini, the International Crisis Group's senior Libya analyst, said IS militants were generally lying low in the desert south of the coastline, moving in small convoys so as not to attract attention or just going home. Others, she explained, were active around Sirte, staging occasional attacks against their adversaries.
Going forward, she said, IS remnants will likely try to influence and win over groups opposed to Gen. Khalifa Hifter, the Egyptian-backed commander of Libya's national army who has been fighting militants.
"We are already seeing signs that this may have already happened," she said.
Sensing danger, Egypt has begun to closely monitor its borders with Sudan and Libya, fearing the area could turn into a major staging ground for attacks inside its territory. Egypt has said IS militants fighting its security forces in the Sinai Peninsula receive arms and fighters from Libya. It said militants behind recent deadly attacks against Christians were trained in Libya and sneaked into Egypt across the porous desert border.
Like the rest of Libya, the desert towns and villages in the country's central and southern regions have seen law and order vanish since the 2011 ouster and death of dictator Moammar Gadhafi. Across the country, militias many of them with Islamist ideologies have carved out fiefdoms, imposing their will on local administrations.
Some estimates put the number of full-time militiamen in Libya at around 120,000 and IS fighters around 1,000, but there is no way to independently verify these figures.
Gen. Hifter has sought to drive out Islamic militants and bring the center and south under his control but with limited success. He said he intends to seal off Libya's borders with Egypt, Sudan and Chad by early July to stop the flow of arms, fighters and migrants.
It is widely believed, however, that his forces don't have the resources to enforce order in the vast region or take on the hardened militants and militiamen there.
In a sign of desperation over deteriorating security, Libya's national oil company halted shipments to the south, after a series of hijackings of convoys delivering fuel. Invariably, the fuel surfaced later in the black market or in neighboring countries.
The following are key geographical locations for the militants and armed groups:
ZAMZAM VALLEY:
Zamzam Valley is south of Misrata about 50 kilometers (30 miles) from the coast. Scores of IS militants found refuge there after they were defeated last year by militiamen loyal to the U.N.-backed government in Tripoli after a months-long battle. IS fighters in Zamzam Valley occasionally launch attacks against Misrata, the hometown of the militia that drove them out of Sirte, as well as kidnap travelers or attacks checkpoints.
AL-AWAYNAT:
This location in the remote southwestern corner of Libya close to the borders of Algeria and Niger has become something of a "mercenaries central" because of the hundreds of guns-for hire stationed there. The men, mostly from Chad, Niger and Cameroon, are hired mostly to fight under the banners of different militias. They make an average of $2,000 a month when hired. Militias and criminal groups in al-Awaynat, meanwhile, make money from human trafficking, kidnappings for ransom and smuggling of weapons, drugs and fuel.
AL-KUFRA:
Small cells of IS and al-Qaida fighters are believed to have moved to the outskirts of this oasis city in southeast Libya in recent months. Al-Kufra has for decades been torn by a deadly conflict pitting the Arab Alzway tribes against the sub-Saharan African Tabu group, which inhabits a large swath of territory stretching across northern Chad, southern Libya, northwestern Sudan and northeastern Niger.
Alzway dominate the city and accuse the Tabu of harboring criminals and militants from Sudan and Chad. The Tabu deny the charges. Militias from both sides are involved in tit-for-tat raids that often target civilians. The conflict is widely seen as a rivalry over control of border crossings and lucrative smuggling routes.
Two brigades from Hifter's Libyan National Army are stationed at al-Kufra, but they don't have the manpower or resources to enforce law and order in the vast desert area.
SABHA:
Most of the hundreds of militants who managed to flee the assault on Sirte last year are thought to have made it near this town in central Libya.
It was a perfect destination. The city is virtually out of control, with several ongoing conflicts. The main players are Awlad Suleiman, an ethnically Arab tribe, and the Tabu and Twareg, all of whom have for years been vying for a bigger slice of the smuggling trade.
Anti-government militiamen from Sudan and Chad provide a pool of mercenaries for any armed group. They are also involved in cross-border arms smuggling, according to local politician Youssef Kalourki.
IS fighters in the area keep a low profile, spending most of their time in valleys and mountains outside the city.
In May, forces loyal to Hifter seized a nearby air base and several localities. It was a significant victory, but Hifter's forces remain a long way away from controlling the region.
UBARI:
This town southwest of Sabha saw fierce fighting among rival criminal gangs in 2015 that displaced almost the entire population. The hostilities were triggered by an attempt by several militias to control the black market in subsidized fuel provided by the Tripoli government.
Radical militant groups in the area, including al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, are known to be involved in the illicit trade, selling the fuel in neighboring countries for at least 10 times the price in Libya.
Hendawi reported from Cairo.
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Militants find sanctuary in Libya's wild south - ABC News
AFP on July 12, 2017, 11:50 pm
Newborn among migrants reaching Italy after rescue off Libya
Rome (AFP) - The first of more than 3,500 would-be migrants picked up off the coast of Libya in recent days arrived Wednesday in Italy, as Rome pressures other countries into taking their share.
The early morning saw a coast guard vessel with 481 migrants aboard reach the southern Sicilian port of Pozzallo, while the Phoenix vessel of Maltese NGO Moas began disembarking 422 more further up the coast at Trapani.
One migrant was a newborn Cameroonian named Christ, whose mother gave birth to him Tuesday aboard a rickety wooden boat.
Rescuers applauded as she made her way up a ladder to haul herself on to the Aquarius, a vessel chartered by SOS Mediterranee and MSF.
The little boy's father has still to attempt the hazardous trip to Europe from Libya.
MSF midwife Alice Gautreau tweeted how she cut the child's umbilical cord.
"Little Christ is doing fine, his mother too. But it would have been better for both if she had not had to give birth in the middle of the Mediterranean, surrounded by 100 men," Gautreau added.
Vessels from four other NGOs -- Medecins sans Frontieres (MSF), SOS Mediterranee, Save the Children and ProActiva Open Arms -- were on their way to Italian ports with a cargo of some 2,700 more migrants, including many children, picked up Tuesday, those organisations said.
Italy has been urging its EU partners to make a "concrete contribution" to dealing with the crisis both in terms of trying to limit departures from Libya and also taking in a portion of those who survive the perilous journey.
Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni warned last week that his country did not have "unlimited" capacity to keep taking people having already accepted around 85,000 of the 100,000 people who have arrived this year.
EU interior ministers last week pledged to back an urgent European Commission plan to help Italy by earmarking 35 million euros ($40 million) in aid.
The issue was high on the agenda of Wednesday talks in the northeastern city of Trieste between Gentiloni, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel attending a Western Balkans summit.
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Newborn among migrants reaching Italy after rescue off Libya - Yahoo7 News
OPEC wants an orderly recovery in oil production fromLibya, Nigeria and Iran andhas a flexible output target under its cuts agreementto accommodate more crude from the three member nations,the groups Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countrieswas anticipating a revival in production from the three when it set a targeted output range from 32.5 million to 33 millionbarrels a dayunder its Novemberagreement, Barkindo told Bloomberg Television on Wednesday at a conference in Istanbul. Nigeria will support a cap on its production,the countrysMinister of State for Petroleum Resources Emmanuel Kachikwu told reporters in Abuja.
OPECs Barkindo discusses the recovery of oil production in Libya and Nigeria
(Source: Bloomberg)
What we would like to see is an orderly recovery that would not disrupt significantly the re-balancing of the market, which is a very delicate process which has taken longer than expected because of the change in fundamentals, Barkindo said.By setting a range for the production ceiling, OPEC was making provisions for the expected recovery of production from Libya, Nigeria and Iran, he said.
OPEC decided in November to reduce its output by 1.2 million barrels a day to 32.5 million starting Jan. 1 to clear a global glut. Other producers including Russia joined the deal, which was extended through March 2018.
Libya and Nigeria were both exempted from the cuts due to their internal strife, while Iran was allowed to raise production by 90,000 barrels a day as it was recovering from sanctions. Crude slid into a bear market last month amid concerns that cutbacks by OPEC and allied producers are being partially offset by a rebound in supply from Libya and Nigeria and by U.S. shale output.Benchmark Brent crude has dropped 16 percent this year and was 10 cents lower at $47.64 a barrelin London on Thursday at 7:24 a.m. local time.
OPEC pumped 32.6 million barrels a day in June, and its output exceeded demand in the first half of this year, according to a report the group issued Wednesday.
Libya and Nigeria may be asked to cap their output soon in an effort to help re-balance the market, Kuwaiti Oil Minister Issam Almarzooq said Monday at the Istanbul event.Both African nations are expected to send representatives to the next meeting of theOPEC and non-OPEC Joint Technical Committee on July 22 inRussia, Barkindo said.
OPEC recognizes thatLibya, Nigeria, and Iran have faced severe challenges, and it welcomes their increased production,he said. We are glad these countries are recovering fast.
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Nigerias output limit would come into play when the nation can pump at a stable rate of 1.8 million barrels a day, about 100,000 more than its currently producing, Kachikwu said. We still are below the 1.8 million barrel a day benchmark set for us by OPEC, he said. I think that over the next one or two months, hopefully, we can get to that point where we can say the recovery has been tested, it is systemic and predictable.
Nigeria will miss an OPEC ministerial committee meeting in Russia scheduled for July 24, but Kachikwu plans to meet with Saudi Arabia and Russia after that, he said.
Libyas output has risen to 1.05 million barrels a day, or 45,000 barrels a day more than the country was pumping at the beginning of July, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter who asked not to be identified for lack of authorization to speak to the media. The nations output is at the highest level since June 2013, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The global cuts accord between OPEC and non-OPEC producers faced headwinds in the first quarter this year and didnt cause crude stockpiles to decline fast enough, Barkindo said.The current market downturn is lasting longer than previous slumps, due largely to 700,000 to 800,000 barrels a day of additional supply from the U.S., he said.
Supply and demand now show us we are on the right course to achieving OPECs goal of reducing stockpiles to their five-year average, he said.
Shale producers need to join us so that together we can restore stability and maintain it, Barkindo said. The global economy itself benefits from stable oil markets.
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OPEC Can Absorb 'Orderly' Oil Recovery From Libya, Nigeria, Iran - Bloomberg
Oil climbed Tuesday, as a lower 2018 forecast on U.S. crude production and speculation of possible output curbs in Libya and Nigeria fueled the strongest session gain for prices in over a week.
Expectations for a second-consecutive weekly decline in U.S. crude supplies also provided support.
August West Texas Intermediate crude CLQ7, +1.44% rose 64 cents, or 1.4%, to settle at $45.04 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That was the largest dollar and percentage gain since July 3, FactSet data show. September Brent crude LCOU7, +1.20% on ICE Futures Europe added 64 cents, or 1.4%, to $47.52 a barrel.
In a monthly report issued Tuesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration lowered its WTI and Brent oil-price forecasts for this year and next and cut its 2018 U.S. production forecast by 1% to 9.90 million barrels a day.
Still, on an annual basis, 2018 domestic production remains on track to reach a record high.
Read: Lower oil prices set to slow 2018 growth in U.S. crude production, says EIA
Earlier Tuesday, Enrico Chiorando, a U.K.-based analyst at energy consultancy Love Energy, noted that investors remain cautious, with several banks cutting their forecasts on oil.
Read: Forget about oil rising above $50 this summer, Barclays says
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries faces overwhelming pressure to curb global supplies, possibly by bringing Libya and Nigeria, which have been exempt from production cuts, into the fold, Chiorando said.
Also read: OPEC mulls oil production caps for Libya, Nigeria
Oil prices fell roughly 4% last week, but saw a tepid recovery Monday, boosted by news that OPEC could pressure Nigeria and Libya to curb their oil production, which has been on the rise. Both are members of OPEC but exempt from the group-led agreement to cut global output by 2%. The exemption was meant to allow their production to rebound following years of fighting between the countries governments and local insurgents.
Check out: U.S. shale oil investment surges more than 50% in 2017, IEA says
Libya and Nigeria have been invited to attend a meeting of OPECs monitoring panel on July 24 in Moscow.
Traders and analysts were also looking ahead to monthly oil reports from OPEC and the International Energy Agency, to be released Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
The American Petroleum Institutes weekly U.S. petroleum supplies data will be released later Tuesday. Separately, the EIAs weekly supply report will be released Wednesday.
Analysts polled by S&P Global Platts expect the government agency to report a decline of 2.6 million barrels in crude supplies for the week ended July 7. Inventories had dropped by more than 6 million barrels the previous week.
The S&P Global Platts survey also calls for an increase of 400,000 barrels for gasoline stocks, and a rise of 1.2 million barrels for distillates.
On Nymex, August gasoline RBQ7, +0.91% rose 1.8 cents, or 1.2%, to $1.518 a gallon, while August heating oil HOQ7, +0.81% climbed 2.3 cents, or 1.6%, to $1.476 a gallon.
Natural-gas prices traded at their highest levels of this month so far as warm weather forecasts raised demand prospects.
August natural gas NGQ17, -0.36% settled at $3.047 per million British thermal units, up 11.8 cents, or 4%.
Weather forecast revisions have continued to lean bullish over the past 48 hours, with expectations for above average temperatures across the Midwest and western U.S., as well as parts of the east coast, all expected to boost cooling demand and connected gas power burn, said Robbie Fraser, commodity analyst at Schneider Electric.
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Oil up over 1% on lower US output forecast, Libya, Nigeria production-cap talk - MarketWatch