Mediaboss Marketing

Whenever a major oil-producing region is engulfed in prolonged warfare, speculation starts to abound regarding all the potential changes to its oil and gas policy and the companies willing to take a share in its projects. The future of Iraqi oil production seems more or less settled for the upcoming years with international majors operating the most complex and grand-scale enterprises, whilst the Iraqi state companies generate know-how. Syria, too, despite occasional flareups, seems to have decided which way to go with its hydrocarbon projects the likelihood that state-affiliated companies from Russia or China will play a crucial role in re-erecting the countrys damaged infrastructure is higher than ever. But what about Libya?

The above question might be put a tad differently - projects which remained safe throughout the past months and years will surely remain as they function today but what would happen to the ones near or inside conflict zones? Deciding to invest into Libyas upstream requires a substantial amount of courage as the North African country is still torn between two rival governments, still struggles to come to terms with the Field Marshal Haftar-led offensive on Tripoli. Thus, if one is to invest into onshore projects (offshore production has remained uninterrupted throughout the Civil War), especially in territories which might be considered disputed, one needs some solid backing. Perhaps a return of a Russian oil company might provide a compass for future projects to come.

Tatneft has resumed exploration in its Block 04 acreage within the Ghadames Basin early December, less than 2 months after it had publicly voiced its interest in returning to the North African country. Having clinched eight blocks in Libya in the 2006-2007 licensing rounds and all of them under 100% control and operatorship, Tatneft managed to drill 6 wildcats in the first years of appraisal (with 2 commercial discoveries announced in Block 04). The seismic surveys of the Ghadames blocks are still not finalized AGESCO was tasked now to follow up with the remaining acreage that was still not covered in 2014 when Tatneft announced its suspension of all activities. Related: Is This The Beginning Of A Shale Crisis?

Graph 1. Tatneft Acreage in Libya.

Source: Author.

Tatneft claims that it would seek to invest $15 billion in new upstream investment by 2040, although the majority of those would go to projects in the Volga-Urals Basin in Russia. Moving abroad would also be considered a good step for Tatneft as it still has some reputation to ameliorate following its 2000s investments into Libya and Syria. It has spent more than $200 million in Libya without any tangible results so far, hence the pressure to deliver is manifest. Although it might be justifiably claimed that the Civil War rendered field development impossible and that less than half of the 14 years that passed since the signing of the first production sharing deal has actually passed, still, a Libyan breakthrough might be Tatnefts best option to effectuate a real breakthrough. Related: Another Oil Major Bails On Marcellus Shale

It has been reported that the Libyan NOC might compel Tatneft to take an even more active role in Libyan upstream, with political backing to keep the burgeoning negotiations intact. The crux of the matter lies in LNOCs relative lack of experience with heavy viscous crudes, a segment in which Tatneft (thanks to its extensive experience with sulphurous crudes from depleted reservoirs) could be very helpful. This was one of the reasons why LNOC reached out to Tatneft to start joint work on heavy projects, too. Tatneft is one of the key recipients of Russian tax exemptions as most of its output comes from fields that are considered depleted thus allowing to keep its production relatively cost-efficient despite the usage enhanced oil recovery (EOR) methods.

Graph 2. Tatneft Crude Production in 2010-2019.

Source: Tatneft reports.

The rationale behind Tatnefts decision is straightforward enough compelled to work in the mature producing Volga-Urals region (i.e. in and around Tatarstan) with very little international upstream exposure, the company needs high-profile assets that can insulate it from sudden risks and diversify its resource base. The Russian firms production has been on the increase in the past 5 years, expected to reach 588kbpd in 2019 yet its future progress depends to a great extent on externalities i.e. whether the government continues to subsidize mature production by means of tax exemptions, whether it does not separate heavy sour Tatneft crude into the occasionally flaunted Urals Heavy stream and whether external pricing would support the usage of EOR techniques.

Given that it is Libya it seeks a return to, a nation that Moscow has long sought to cultivate friendly relations with, the Russian state would buttress its claim going forward. Tatneft could opt to develop its acreage in the Sirte Basin, too, however saw Ghadames a more viable bet. This might seem odd given the constructive relationship between Moscow and Field Marshal Haftar Sirte is much deeper in Haftar-controlled territory and thus might be perceived as safer to work at yet in this case it is the 3 previous discoveries that eventually carried the day. If heavy streams are added to Tatnefts portfolio or if Gazprom decides to restart works on its offshore block, the political link between Moscow and Tripoli might get even more thorough.

By Viktor Katona for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:

Read more:
Putin Makes A Move In Libya's Oil Crescent - OilPrice.com

By AFPMore by this Author

Layla Mohammed barely had time to gather her children's belongings before fleeing their southern Tripoli home when shelling targeted the Libyan capital's outskirts earlier this year.

For months she moved her family between apartments as soaring rents in the crowded city exhausted her savings, eventually leaving them squatting in an unfinished building alongside dozens of other families.

More than 140,000 Libyans like Mohammed have fled their homes since April, when forces loyal to eastern-based strongman Khalifa Haftar launched an assault on Tripoli, seat of the UN-recognised government.

In central Tripoli, the grey skeletons of a high rise construction site -- abandoned since 2008 due to a property dispute -- now host more than 170 families.

For some, the high rises in Tarik al-Sekka were "a gift from heaven", since the alternative was living in the street.

But "we live like animals -- without running water, electricity, or even sewerage," said Mohammed, a mother of seven.

Her youngest son is sick with a chronic respiratory illness. "The dust will kill him," Mohammed despaired.

"All we want is to live in dignity," she said.

Neighbour Samira crowds her four children into a single room in a nearby building, preferring the greater warmth it affords over any sense of privacy.

She feels safe in the eight square metre room, which thanks to a benefactor has a door and a window. "Even if it's not ideal, at least it's free," she said.

Initially, Samira was determined to stay in her southern Tripoli home, even as combat crept closer over the months.

But when a rocket fell near her house the terror became too much and she fled, she said.

The buildings sheltering Samira and Mohammed are just metres from the seat of the Government of National Accord (GNA).

But authorities have done little to help.

Mayssoun al-Diab is in charge of displacement issues for the GNA's crisis committee but admits "the government has offered them nothing, not even moral support".

According to her, the government was unable to find shelter for all the displaced, leaving many at the mercy of avaricious lenders.

Her committee requisitioned schools, public buildings and hotels to house the displaced, but faced with an ever-growing influx as the battle dragged on, more and more families found themselves homeless.

When school resumed, the situation got worse. After living for months in one Tripoli school, Khairi al-Doukali said his family was "evicted alongside dozens of other families" to allow classes to restart.

Eventually, the Doukali family also ended up on the Tarik al-Sekka building site.

In the face of government inaction, civic-minded Tripoli residents have responded to heartfelt pleas online and stepped in to help.

Every day people give food, clothing and blankets, according to Salem el-Chatti, a member of a neighbourhood support group.

"We try to distribute donated items in a fair manner," he said.

A man named Abdel-Atti arrives to donate a mattress and blankets.

"I pass by these buildings every day," he said.

"It breaks my heart that my kids are fed and sleep warm inside while our brothers are experiencing this tragedy.

More here:
Libya war leaves thousands homeless in Tripoli - Daily Nation

A WILTSHIRE mother says she has lost track of two daughters taken to Libya by their Libyan father nearly five years ago.

Tanya Borg, of Pewsey, has been fighting to get Angel El Zubaidy, 19, and her eight-year-old sister, back to Britain since her estranged husband Mohammed El Zubaidy left them with his mother in Tripoli in 2015.

She took High Court action in London shortly after her daughters vanished.

Judges have twice jailed El Zubaidy, 41, who has lived in Wood Green, north London, since returning to England alone, for breaching orders to get his daughters back.

El Zubaidy, who left jail in November after completing his latest term, has told judges that he does not know where his daughters are and cannot get them back to Britain.

Earlier this year Ms Borg also took legal action in Libya after travelling to Tripoli.

She saw her children briefly during her visit.

But her lawyer says they disappeared after a Libyan judge ordered their grandmother to produce them at a court hearing and their whereabouts are now unknown.

Ms Borg, who was born in Malta and met El Zubaidy two decades ago, says she is heartbroken and not sure what to do next.

"I'm pretty much back to square one," she said.

"It's very complicated.

"I'm not sure what I can do next.

"I'm talking to my lawyers."

She added: "Their father is in control. He has all the power. He could get them back. I beg him to get them home."

Lawyer Pam Sanghera, who represents Ms Borg and is based at Charles Strachan Solicitors, said mother and daughters were briefly reunited earlier this year in Libya.

But she said Ms Borg's daughters vanished after a Libyan judge ordered their grandmother to produce them.

"The grandmother failed to produce the children at court and since then, has not been contactable and has left her family home," she said.

"The children's whereabouts in Libya are therefore unknown to their mother.

"She has made extensive inquiries in Libya to track down her children to no avail."

More:
Heartbroken Wiltshire mother says she has 'lost track' of daughters taken to Libya by estranged husband - Salisbury Journal

Ankara is pitting itself against several regional states through its actions in the Mediterranean and its offer to become more involved in Libyas conflict.

Turkeys memorandum of understanding on Mediterranean maritime jurisdictions with Libyas UN-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) late last month infuriated Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece, all of which stress the deal violates international law.

The deal between Ankara and Tripoli carves out a slanting sea corridor of maritime boundaries at the closest points between Libya and Turkey, potentially clearing the way for oil and gas search there, Reuters said.

Turkey has already angered regional states and the European Union by sending drilling ships inside Cypruss Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Ankara insists it has the right to drill offshore of the breakaway Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, an entity only recognised by Turkey.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlt avuolu stressed last week that Turkey would of course use military force if any other nation conducted drilling in the waters his country claims.

The Jerusalem Post reported the Turkish Navy forced an Israeli research vessel of the coast of Cyprus to turn back two weeks ago. Turkish warships last year blocked a drilling ship leased to Italian energy company Eni southeast of Cyprus, despite being authorised by internationally recognised government of the island. Cyprus, France, and Italy began a joint naval exercise in the eastern Mediterranean this month.

Levent zgl, a Turkish defence analyst and Partner at BlueMelange Consultancy, pointed out that, unlike Turkey, the allied forces in the Mediterranean are economically stable and fully supported by international law.

France, Italy, Greece, Cyprus, Egypt, the Gulf states, Russia, the United States, Britain, Israel and even Qatar, which has a licensed company operating in the Cypriot EEZ, all have plans that conflict with Turkeys goals in areas across the eastern Mediterranean, zgl told Ahval.

These, he said, include offshore Cyprus, the Republic of Cyprus EEZ, the Israel-Lebanon Leviathan basin, Crete and offshore Crete, along with the Herodotus basin and offshore and onshore Libya.

Turkeys deployment of drones to northern Cyprus is also an important message to the EU that Turkey is serious, he said.

zgl anticipates military confrontation in the eastern Mediterranean and identified Libya and Crete as the most obvious sites for Turkey, rather than fighting with Israel in Cypruss EEZ.

But the capabilities of the Turkish Navy and Air Force are too limited to exercise this kind of overseas operation, he said.

The Turkish military, he said, lacks an aircraft carrier, modern fighter jets as well as area defence missile systems like the Aegis or Aster-30 and long-range fighter jets capable of conducting combat air patrols far from Turkeys shores. The countrys air tanker fleet is also ageing and its drones are short-range, he said.

On top of that, Turkey doesnt have any long-range air-to-ship missiles like the Harpoon or Exocet.

It only possesses 30-35 km range Penguin anti-ship missiles and domestically-built SOM missiles, zgl said. These are all bottlenecks for Turkey.

Turkey also signed an agreement with the GNA under which the Tripoli government can request Turkey to deploy troops.

The deal came as General Khalifa Haftar, the leader of the Libyan National Army (LNA) that is besieging Tripoli, announced he was launching what he called the decisive and final battle for the capital. Turkey has supplied Tripoli with armed drones and armoured vehicles to help the GNA fend off the attack.

Mohamed Eljarh of Libya Outlook, a research and consulting firm based in eastern Libya, believes Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoan is serious and should not be underestimated.

Libya is now part of the Turkish foreign policy strategy to expand its sphere of influence in the Mediterranean, the region, and the world, Eljarh told Ahval.

Pro-government media in Turkey and Libya are preparing public opinion for the possibility of greater Turkish involvement in the conflict, he said.

With its military capabilities, greater Turkish military involvement in Libya would be significant and would most certainly tip the balance of power in favour of the GNA unless Haftars foreign backers increase their support, Eljarh said.

Haftars sees the anger of regional and international powers at the deal between Turkey and the GNA as a golden opportunity to escalate his military operations against Tripoli, he said.

Haftar can do so without risking condemnation from the EU, due to European opposition and anger over the MoU, or the United Nations Security Council, given that Russia and France are ready to water down any statement or resolution that would lead to direct condemnation of Haftar for the escalation in violence, Eljarh said.

Second, Haftar seems to be taking the Turkish threats seriously, and he understands that the only way to stop the Turks from coming is to capture Tripoli, he said.

But, he said, the only thing that could stop Erdoan from going to Libya is the real threat of force, or even war, from countries threatened by the MoU, such as Greece and Cyprus supported by France, Egypt, and Italy Only then would Erdoan abandon the edge of the abyss approach in favour of a more pragmatic one.

Tom Cooper, a military aviation expert, pointed out that Turkey already has personnel in Libya operating the Bayraktar TB2 unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs).

Indeed, the recent series of nocturnal air strikes on GNA air bases all flown by Emirati-operated UCAVs and AT-802U planes were specifically targeting Turkish control stations for UCAVs, Cooper said. He said that on Dec. 13, the LNA also targeted a cargo aircraft that had arrived from Turkey.

The real question is if Erdoan is going to deploy additional troops to Libya, Cooper said. I do consider this within realms of possible, but also unlikely.

As in Syria, he said, Erdoan had a preference for using surrogates to avoid exposing Turkish troops to casualties This is leading to the conclusion that the option of Turkey providing additional military hardware to its allies in Libya is far more likely, indeed certain.

Even if Turkey does deploy troops in Tripoli, Cooper does not see any serious short-term ramifications.

Both sides, Turks and Emiratis, have already suffered casualties, including fatalities, he said. As long as the number of casualties remains minimal, nothing is going to change.

Cooper also doubts that Haftar will make much progress in his latest push to capture Tripoli.

Even if commanded by Russian officers, Haftars LNA remains a disparate mixture of forces, and he controls very little of Libyas population, despite controlling more than two-thirds of the country, he said.

Therefore, it is extremely unlikely that anything will significantly change on the frontlines.

Originally posted here:
Turkey biting off more than it can chew in Mediterranean and Libya - Ahval

Hande Frat - ANKARA

The main opposition partys leader, Kemal Kldarolu, has urged the Turkish government to take lessons from the Syrian conflict and not to deploy troops to Libya as Ankara and Tripoli have agreed on a comprehensive security and defense deal.

What are we in Libya for? For what were we in the Syrian marsh? The government has to take lessons from what happened in the Syrian marsh, the chairman of the Republican Peoples Party (CHP) told the daily Hrriyet in an interview on Dec. 16.

Kldarolus warning came after Turkey and the United Nations-backed Libyan government inked a memorandum of understanding on security and defense cooperation which would constitute a legal framework for the deployment of the Turkish troops in Libya.

The memorandum was approved at the Parliaments Foreign Affairs Commission on Dec. 16, but the opposition parties voted against it on the grounds that it would make Turkey a party to an ongoing civil war between the two factions in the oil-rich country.

CHP officials expressed their support to another memorandum signed between the two parties that provides the delimitation of the maritime jurisdiction areas in the Mediterranean Sea. But they say they wont approve sending troops to Libya as it would put the lives of the Turkish soldiers in danger. The government needs to get the consent of the parliament for the deployment of troops to other countries, and it requires a simple majority.

Montreux Convention should not be amended

CHP leader has raised his concerns over the governments plans to merge the Black Sea with the Marmara Sea through what it calls the Canal Istanbul project and its impacts on the 1936-dated Montreux Convention that regulates the free passage from the Turkish straits.

For Kldarolu, Canal Istanbul is a project that can not materialize and it serves for the government to distract the public attention from socioeconomic problems.

I am of the opinion that it has been brought back to the agenda in order to remove key issues like unemployment, the economic crisis from the agenda. With which resources will it be done? Kldarolu asked.

Those who are discussing the project should be scientists, experts and not politicians, the CHP leader said, describing Canal Istanbul as being a completely irrational plan.

Kldarolu also touched on discussions to what extent the 1936-dated Montreux Convention would be affected in the case that Canal Istanbul would be constructed and function as an alternate seaway.

Even opening a discussion on the Montreux Convention in the context of the Canal Istanbul is against Turkeys interests. We should stand against even probable efforts that would put Turkeys delicate gains over the Bosporus on the table, Kldarolu said. Breaking the Montreux Agreement would lead to a series of negative developments in regard to Turkish-Russian relations.

The government says Canal Istanbul will reduce the sea traffic of the Bosporus and therefore avoid major accidents that would endanger the safety of Istanbul with its 16 million people.

Turkey-US should refrain from sanctions language

Upon questions, Kldarolu evaluated the current state of ties between Turkey and the United States in the wake of the latters attempts to sanction Ankara for its unilateral military operations into Syria and the formers threat to shut down U.S. bases on its soils.

Our wish is to see the reconciliation of ties between Turkey and the U.S., he said, urging both sides to follow common sense and a mature understanding. Sanctions would lead to further strain in ties and to an irreversible break-off. Both sides should refrain from it, he stressed.

On a question about whether Turkey should bar the U.S. from using the key military bases, ncirlik base and Krecik radar site, in retaliation, Kldarolu advised the government to engage in dialogue with Washington instead of threatening it.

Using this language in almost every incident is against the interests of Turkey. Instead, an approach that prioritizes diplomacy through keeping dialogue channels open should be embraced.

Kanal Istanbul,

See the original post:
Main opposition CHP objects to sending troops to Libya - Hurriyet Daily News