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The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan has sent countries around the world scrambling to mount a swift evacuation plan to extricate their respective nationals from the strife-torn country.

But executing an evacuation plan is not an easy job. Its a Herculean task, a disastrous nightmare that a country has to see through to safely rescue its people. The fluidity of the situation makes it incredibly difficult for the authorities to draw up a blueprint of the evacuation amidst perpetual volatility.

Not only do the government has to come up with a practical solution to rescue its marooned citizens in a foreign country but they also have to manage the political crisis developing back home with the opposition parties and the kin of people stuck abroad putting pressure on the government to get their relatives to safety.

The complexity of the task at hand adds to the pressure on the government and the officials involved in the evacuation. The country is also severely constrained in case it does not share a contiguous border with the nation from where it plans to pull out its people.

But arguably, the most difficult part is to have a handle on the situation that the country and its diplomats and foreign ministry officials buckle down to tackle. To come up with a reasonably good plan to evacuate its people to safety, the officials involved in the evacuation process need to have an acute understanding of the unfolding crisis. The diplomats should anticipate much in advance about a possible humanitarian catastrophe and work towards hatching up a plan should the push comes to shove.

In case there is a hostile takeover of the country as is the case in Afghanistan or a war situation as was the case in Libya, Yemen and Iraq, the diplomats need to know who the current stakeholders are and explore opportunities to get into negotiations with them. After getting them on board, the final modalities of the evacuation can be smoothed over and the implementation of the rescue plan could be set in motion.

India, over the years, has been one of those countries that have been remarkably successful in executing its evacuation plans and bringing its stranded citizens back home. Its foreign policies had been disastrous for a couple of decades after the independence when it committed one after another Nehruvian blunders. For instance, not obliterating Pakistan for its audacity of attacking and capturing Jammu and Kashmir in 1948 or serving the UNSC seat to China on a platter and later on misreading Chinas intentions on Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh that inevitably led to the catastrophic 1962 war.

But, in the last few years, after PM Modi came to power, there has been a radical shift in Indias foreign policy. It carried out Surgical Strikes across the border, both in the east and west, to demonstrate its willingness to go beyond the conventional methods to deal with the scourge of terrorism. With Balakot Airstrikes, it has shown the world that it is no longer the yesteryears India that will not sit back and lick its wound, but it will mount a swift offensive and exact revenge from its adversaries.

Additionally, under PM Modi, India has also aced in tackling hostage and humanitarian crises unfolding in foreign countries. Be it the Tikrit hostage situation in 2014 or the Yemen-Saudi war in 2016, or the Kabul evacuation much recently, India has demonstrated that it prizes the life of its nationals residing in other countries and would not abandon them to their fate.

Here are some of the successful evacuation operations carried out by India under the Modi government:-

In June 2014, depressing news trickled in from strife-torn Iraq, where the Islamic State was making rapid territorial gains. The ISIS terrorists had managed to intrude into Tikrit as the Civil War between them and the Iraqi Army escalated. A contingent of Indian nurses was deployed in a hospital in Tikrit to look after the injured and sick. It was just weeks after Narendra Modi had sworn in as the Prime Minister with a very new cabinet.

At midnight of 12 June 2014, all the nurses, both Indian and Iraqis, heard a crackle of bullets on a road nearby the hospital. For the Indian nurses, this was their first brush with Iraqs changing reality as they heard a volley of bullets being fired, along with a loud thud of noise coming from grenade explosions. Soon, the Iraqi nurses whispered among themselves to flee the town. The Indians, on the other hand, knew they had nowhere to go. 46 Indian nurses werestrandedin the hospital. All except one of the 46 nurses were from Kerala.

The next day, ISIS terrorists had occupied the ground floor of the hospital. The Indian nurses lived on the second floor of the hospital in the makeshift dormitories. All the hospital staff, including the patients, were hoarded up on the second floor as the incessant firing continued on the ground floor.

For days on end, the nurses lived in perpetual fear of being assaulted and executed at the hands of their ISIS captors, who were also known for committing unspeakable atrocities against women and holding them as sex slaves. They spent their time in captivity watching TV bulletins and surfing the news on their phones until the television stopped working and the internet was no longer available on the phones.

Throughout their ordeal, the Indian Embassy in Baghdad steadfastly kept in touch with them on phone and at times recharging their prepaid cell phones. On June 30, the nurses were ferried to the border by the ISIS terrorists. From their office at the border, another bus was arranged to transport the nurses to the Indian rescue team. They were then taken to the military office, and then Erbil airport after their documents were verified. The Indian Government had arranged a special flight from Delhi to Erbil to fly the nurses back. After 23 days of traumatic experience, the nurses, unscathed and unharmed, finally boarded the flight on July 5 and returned home.

The escape, which was dramatic and unprecedented, given that ISIS had become notorious for meting out brutalities on their hostages, is partly credited to the then External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj, who was continuously in touch with all the major countries, including Saudi Arabia and Iraq. It is believed that New Delhi activated informal channels and established peripheral contacts with ISIS, and other splinter groups in Iraq to precipitate the rescue. The foreign ministry later refused to identify interlocutors who had negotiated the release of the nurses.

In 2015, as fighting raged between the Houthi rebels and the Yemeni government supported by aerial bombardment from the Saudi-led coalition, the Indian government once again found itself in a tight spot. Thousands of Indians were stranded in Yemen as theRoyal Saudi Air Forceled acoalition of Arab statesin suppressing theShiiteHouthirebels.

The Indian government launched Operation Rahat to evacuateIndiancitizens and foreign nationals fromYemen.Since Yemen was not accessible by air due to a no-fly zone announced by Saudi Arabia, India chose Djibouti initially as a centre to carry out initial evacuation by sea. The Indian government also sent the then Minister of State for Overseas Indian Affairs General (Retd) V.K. Singh to oversee operations from the nearest port of Djibouti city.

Indians stuck in Yemen were asked to reach SanaaandAden, from where they would be ferried back to India. The Indian Navy redeployed thepatrol vesselINSSumitra(P59)from anti-piracy operations off the coast ofLakshadweepto the Yemeni port of Aden.

Besides, INS Mumbai and frigate INS Tarkash were also sent from Mumbai to provide protection and support to Indian ships and aircraft in the conflict zone. The Indian government also commissioned the Indian Air Force to help the Navy with the evacuation effort. Two C-17 Globemastercargo aircraft with a capacity of 600 passengers were sent to Djibouti.

In addition to this, two ferries belonging to the Lakshadweep administration, MVKavarattiandMVCorals, with a capacity of 1,500 passengers were sent to Aden, while two Air India Airbus A320 aircraft were dispatched to Muscat in neighbouring Oman. Then on April 1, 2015, INS Sumitra reached Aden to evacuate 349 Indians.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi personally spoke to the King Salman of Saudi Arabia to seek a safe passage for Indian nationals and evacuation effort. The Prime Ministers Office was personally monitoring operations and looking over seamless cooperation between various arms of the state including ministries of external affairs, defence, shipping, railways, navy, IAF, Air India and various state governments to provide relief to those in distress.

After India was permitted to fly to Yemen on April 3, 2015, it began evacuating people from Sanaa to Djibouti and from there to Mumbai or Kochi. The two C-17 Globemasters flew nine sorties to Mumbai and two to Kochi to transport the expatriates back to India.

Over the next few days, India rescued about 4,640 Indians stranded in Yemen, along with 960 foreign nationals from more than 41 countries.Some of the countries did not have the operational capability to carry out a complex evacuation process so they sought Indias help. India happily obliged and rescued the beleaguered foreign nationals.

With the security situation on the ground rapidly deteriorating in Libya, the then External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj in April 2019 announced that an entire contingent of CRPF troops was removed from the conflict zone.

The root of the crisis that continues to plague Libya to this day is the unrest that sparked the Arab Spring in 2011. The uprising had then overthrown and killed long-ruling dictator Moammar Gadhafi and since his death, various rival factions within the country had been jousting for power.

An UN-backed internationally recognised government headed by Fayez al-Sarraj was installed but the rebels continued to fight with each other, in their bid to undermine the government and stake their claim to power.

The infighting escalated in 2019 with the launch of a military campaign known as theWestern Libya campaign, initiated on 4 April 2019 by theOperation Flood of Dignityof theLibyan National Army, which represents the LibyanHouse of Representatives, to capture the western region ofLibyaand eventually the capitalTripoliheld by theUnited Nations Security Council-recognisedGovernment of National Accord.

The Indian government initiated a massive evacuation plan to rescue the marooned people from the country. Later, the then External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj tweeted that the evacuation of an entire contingent of CRPF forces was carried out as the situation in Tripoli had worsened.

Indian Embassy in Tunisia has evacuated the entire contingent of 15 CRPF personnel yesterday itself. I appreciate the excellent work by the Indian Embassy in Tunisia. #Libya, she had tweeted.

With the situation exacerbating, the Indian government foresaw the possibility of the crisis devolving into a long-drawn-out conflict. During this time, some Indians residing in Tripoli were still hesitant to leave everything behind and get rescued from the war-torn country. With more than 500 Indians still in Tripoli, the then EAM Sushma Swaraj requested families and friends of people in Libyas capital city Tripoli to persuade them to leave immediately amid an emergency.

With the peace talks in Doha going sideways and the Taliban not holding up to its end of the bargain, the Indian authorities anticipated that there would come a time when New Delhi will have to decide whether to stay put or extricate itself from Afghanistan.

Then, on August 15, 2021, the Taliban terrorists walked into Kabul, facing no resistance from the Afghan armed forces and declaring themselves as Afghanistans rulers. Panic and fear had swept across the country after the fall of Kabul, following which a multitude of city residents flocked to the airport, in a desperate attempt to fly out of the country.

With India anticipating a humanitarian crisis emerging in Afghanistan, it had already laid the groundwork for initiating a swift evacuation campaign. Indians were dogged by primarily two concerns. Firstly, it didnt share a contiguous border with Afghanistan, which meant that the evacuation had to be carried out at a broader level with an all-embracing approach. Secondly, India had no security footprint in Afghanistan.

Our overriding concern was the security of our officials on the ground. So we prioritised it in our plan to exfiltrate them from Afghanistan should the Taliban gets hold of the country, TOI quoted a senior official as saying, who wished to remain anonymous because of being unauthorised to speak on the issue.

As of August 22, India brought back 392 people, including two Afghan lawmakers, in three different flights as a part of the mission to evacuate its nationals and Afghan partners from Kabul.

A total of 168 people, including 107 Indians and 23 Afghan Sikhs and Hindus, were flown from Kabul to Hindon airbase near Delhi in a C-17 heavy-lift military transport aircraft of the Indian Air Force (IAF). The evacuation plan is still underway as India undertakes repatriation of remaining Indians stranded in Afghanistan while helping other countries evacuate their marooned nationals.

The Indian government is still making all efforts to bring back Indian citizens as well as Hindus and Sikh Afghan nationals as well as other Afghans to India.

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From Iraq to Yemen to Libya to Kabul: Some of the toughest evacuations executed by the Modi government - OpIndia

What, I wonder, is Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar up to in Libya? The simple answer to that complex question is that he still wants to rule the country. The next question is: how he is going to do it?

Over the past seven years Haftar has tried the armed route to conquer the country and get rid of his adversaries, both military and political. At one point in his military adventure he enjoyed the support of three-quarters of the permanent members of the UN Security Council. That was when he launched his campaign, on 4 April 2019, to conquer the Libyan capital Tripoli, disrupting UN mediation efforts aimed at settling the conflict.

Thirteen months later, in June last year, Haftar's military campaign collapsed in defeat. Reflecting on that situation, former UN Acting Envoy to Libya Stephanie Williams told MEMO in May that on 24 April 2019 Haftar received a phone call from US President Donald Trump, which the self-styled field marshal interpreted as a "green light" to take the capital. France and Russia, both permanent members of the Security Council like the US, supported Haftar's efforts. Nevertheless, he failed, thanks to Turkey's military intervention on the side of the UN-recognised Tripoli government.

Haftar is still around. He has never visited the front line in western Libya, but he still harbours his old dream of ruling the country.

His tactics are apparently flexible as the political situation in the North African country evolves. When in March the Government of National Unity (GNU) was sworn in he appeared to be welcoming and reconciliatory. Haftar didn't actually commit to anything specific, though, such as accepting that he was under a new government and would obey its orders. At the time, the GNU considered this to be a step in the right direction that would ultimately lead to unification of the armed forces under its command. However, little has been achieved towards this objective, one of the main priorities for the interim government whose mandate will expire on 24 December when presidential and legislative elections are due to be held.

READ: Gaddafi's finances may save Libya's new budget

Despite still holding to his old dream of controlling Libya, Haftar is yet to take any practical steps towards, for example, putting himself forward as a candidate in the presidential election. He has never said whether he will stand, although he voiced support for the elections to take place.

The deliberations of the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum, which is charged with coming up with a constitutional base or framework for elections, has stalled. One of the stumbling blocks has been whether serving military officers, like Haftar, should be allowed to stand as candidates or if they should resign first. Those who are against them standing while in the armed forces argue that an officer appearing in uniform while he is a candidate for president, for example, jeopardises free and fair elections. Would such an officer who loses then obey orders from the winning candidate who, as president, will be Commander in Chief of the armed forces? In the politically polarised situation in Libya this is very serious issue, and banning serving officers from running in the elections makes a lot of sense.

Moreover, ever since the GNU took office, Haftar has contradicted his earlier reconciliatory tone. For instance, he denied having any links with the government just weeks after welcoming its formation. On 11 August, the forces under his command announced the capture of a Daesh member described as "dangerous" without any further details. This happened despite the fact that the Presidency Council did not authorise such operations. And in April, the council banned military officers from making any public statements without its authorisation, and yet Haftar hasn't stopped making all sorts of announcements. In a televised speech last week, for example, he said that his forces will only "obey orders" from an elected president. A week earlier he announced promotions for dozens of officers among his troops, despite the fact that the Presidency Council has banned such personal advancement.

Politically, Haftar has lost a lot of popularity, further decreasing his chances of winning any election should he decide to run. After his rise to power in mid 2014, his popularity skyrocketed, particularly in eastern Libya where he is credited with bringing a certain degree of peace, security and stability in restive Benghazi up to the Egyptian border. He got rid of all extremist groups, including Daesh, and his forces played a significant role in curbing lawlessness in the southern region, albeit less successfully.

READ: What is next for Libya after the failure of the Geneva dialogue?

Furthermore, his attack on Tripoli was a serious political and military miscalculation. Speaking on condition of anonymity, one security expert described it as "his biggest blunder so far that cost him dearly." His opponents accuse him of facilitating the Turkish military intervention and the presence of Turkish troops on Libyan soil. They say his attack on Tripoli forced the former government to seek Turkish help. The presence of mercenaries among Haftar's forces, particularly the Russians, has further eroded his popularity. His defeat in June 2020 diminished his political options yet more.

Even so, the man is not giving up. A political expert on Libya, Hussein Abdelsalam, told MEMO, "Do not expect this septuagenarian officer to give up yet. This is a man who invested in his entire career to rule Libya and still thinks that he can."

While Haftar is yet to announce if he is going to contest the presidential election, his support is waning quickly. However, his very presence in the military and political landscape, coupled with his ability to command a sizeable military force very much loyal to him, make him an important player in Libya. For any political solution to succeed, it must include him; attempts to keep him out could lead to another war and partition of the country.

Despite his military defeat at the gates of Tripoli last year, his foreign backers believe in him and think that he still has a role to play. Russia and the UAE, among others, are convinced that Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar is worthy of their support, at least as far as their short-term objectives are concerned.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.

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What is Haftar up to in Libya? Middle East Monitor - Middle East Monitor

By Sami Zaptia.

Happier days? PM Aldabaiba posing for a photo in parliament in March (Photo: Alrasmiya TV).

London, 23 August 2021:

The announcement that there was to be no parliamentary session discussing any topic this week send a further signal that relations between the Abd Alhamid Aldabaiba Government of National Unity (GNU) and the HoR has fast unravelled.

The sense of harmony, unity and positive outlook to the 24 December 2021 elections that came across in March this year when the HoR endorsed the GNU seems to be dissipating.

Parliament and the government are falling out

There were hints in the interview HoR head Ageela Saleh gave to Russian media, if we needed anymore hints, that the dynamic with the government has changed for the worse.

Saleh had accused the government of failing to unify the countrys institutions and that the unification of these institutions means the participation of all regions in power from ministers to embassies to investment companies. He said the government focused management in one place and increased centralization.

The budget is ancillary?

Moreover, Saleh made it clear that the Aldabaiba government did not need the 2021 budget to be passed by parliament as it was able to continue to run the country under existing legislation spending one-twelfth of last years budget (some argue one-twelfth of its proposed budget) per month.

Saleh made it clear the government only needs a budget to be passed by parliament to give it legal cover for its spending.

This lack of urgency by the HoR to hold a session to discuss the 2021 budget at the end of August underscores the fact that the government is happy to carry on its business irrespective of budgetary approval by Libyas parliament.

The government does not want a restrictive, accountable budget?

Indeed, there is a view now by Libyan analysts that the government prefers to operate without a budget. A budget would force it to categorise its spending and keep to this whilst operating without a budget Aldabaiba can spend where he wants and how he wants within the maximum amount the Tripoli-based Central Bank of Libya (CBL) grants him.

Cynics say Aldabaiba inflated his proposed budget in the face of HoRs demand that he reduces it exactly so that the HoR could reject it.

Sacrosanct rentier state-sector salaries

Moreover, the sacrosanct state-sector salaries section of the budget never stops being disbursed as long as the Tripoli-based CBL is happy to handover oil revenues to the Finance Ministry in Tripoli.

Tripoli still centre of power and money?

The whole episode underscores once again the centralization of Libyas power and decision-making in Tripoli. Tripoli is where the CBL, the National Oil Corporation, the Audit Bureau and the government lie. These four power houses can continue to function regardless of Libyas parliament in Tobruk. They did so for the period 2014 to the start of 2021 when Libya was politically split.

Aldabaiba leaving in December?

There is the view that Prime Minister Aldabaiba is not too concerned with the legal niceties. No previous Libyan Prime Minister has been held to account on his spending or decision-making. If the dream scenario that elections are indeed held on 24 December, Aldabaiba will be out of office in four months. He is not too concerned by legal cover for his spending. He will leave that to his successor. If parliament does not want to approve the budget Aldabaiba will not spend too many nights worrying over it.

Government by announcement

Aldabaiba will continue to make policy announcements and spending announcements as he visits hospitals, regions and various institutions. If parliament releases money for projects, he can take the credit, if it does not, all of Libya know parliament failed to pass the budget.

HoR making itself even less relevant?

While Aldabaiba may get away with his win-win scenario, it is unclear if the same applies to the HoR. If Aldabaiba underscores that the unified Libyan government can continue operating without parliament approving its proposed budget, it begs the question: what is the use of the HoR?

If the HoR reinforces this perception, it will make itself seem even more irrelevant to the average Libyan than it is already perceived.

Division of power

The dynamic between the HoR also underlines the problem of the respect of the clear division of power between Libyas executive and legislature. Former prime minister Ali Zeidan had spoken previously on how parliamentarians were in ever constant contact with him during his term in office trying to influence his executive decisions.

The HoR has a habit of wanting to influence details of Aldabaibas decisions. Individual members and those aligned to cities, regions and Hafter are always seeking to extract political and monetary decisions for their area or political stream at the expense of the greater national good. They have no qualms about stopping a national budget if there is nothing in it for them.

The dynamic is problematic and is holding back Libyas progress to further economic and political development least of all on the road to the planned elections.

HoR: No sessions to debate 2021 budget this week, government summoned for questioning on 30 August | (libyaherald.com)

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Libya's parliament and government are falling out: Analysis | - Libya Herald

Tunisian Foreign Minister, Othman Al-Jarandi has said that they have no objection to reopen the Ras Ajdir and Dehiba border crossings, if the scientific committee concerned with confronting Coronavirus allows it.

This came during his phone call with the Foreign Minister, Najlaa Al-Manqoush, during which he indicated that the continued closure of the crossings is a precautionary health measure, aimed at protecting the citizens of the two countries and preventing the spread of the Coronavirus pandemic.

For her part, Al-Manqoush put Al-Jarandi in a picture of the suffering of citizens on both sides, especially families and patients, noting that she is following with interest the issue of the Tunisian side continuing to close the crossings despite Libya's announcement to reopen them as of Thursday, August 19, 2021.

Libya closed the border crossings with Tunisia last July due to the spread of the Coronavirus in Tunisia, announcing last Tuesday the reopening of the crossing as of Thursday, August 19, but that the Tunisian authorities did not open the crossings from their side, which led to a state of confusion among travelers at the border.

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Tunisia: Reopening of border crossings with Libya depends on Scientific Committee's permission - The Libya Observer

MOSCOW--Russias top diplomat assured his Libyan counterpart Thursday that Moscow supports the withdrawal of all foreign fighters from the North African country and is prepared to help work out the details with other countries.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said after the talks in Moscow with Najla Mangoush that the Libyan leadership is forming a consultative mechanism to formulate the concrete parametres under which the foreign forces will leave.

Russia was among the foreign powers backing the warring sides in Libyas conflict, with some officials and media reports alleging that Russian private military contractors from the Kremlin-connected Wagner Group took part in the fighting.

We will be prepared to constructively take part in this work alongside other countries, Lavrov told a press conference.

The Libyan foreign minister said her government considers the issue of withdrawing foreign fighters important and a priority, but stressed that it should be done gradually and in a synchronised manner.

Thats why working out implementation mechanisms is necessary, Mangoush said. Such decisions are aimed to avoid repeating (the) negative lessons of some of our neighbours, to avoid an ill-considered withdrawal of troops and to avoid sliding into chaos, so that the national security of Libya doesnt suffer in the end.

Libya has been wracked by chaos since a NATO-backed uprising toppled longtime ruler Muammar Gadhafi in 2011 and split the country between a government in the capital, Tripoli and rival authorities loyal to Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA), in the east. Each was backed by different armed groups and foreign governments.

In April 2019, Haftar launched a military offensive to capture the capital. His campaign was backed by Egypt, Russia and France, while his rivals had the support of Turkey, Qatar and Italy.

Turkey, in particular, brought in military personnel and equipment as well as thousands of mercenaries from Syria.

Haftars march on Tripoli ultimately failed in June 2020. Subsequent UN-sponsored peace talks brought about a ceasefire and installed an interim government that is expected to lead the country into general elections in December.

Mangoush stressed that the withdrawal of mercenaries and foreign forces requires that we look at it in a realistic way, as the withdrawal must be regulated, pondered and in stages.

She also expressed her appreciation for the Russian efforts to support the Government of National Unity, lauding Russias positive role in launching ceasefire initiative in January 2020 and encouraging Libyans to sit together at the negotiating table.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Vershinin previously said that Moscow is not conducting negotiations about the withdrawal of foreign mercenaries from Libya, whether with Turkey or with any other country, as the Libyans themselves must resolve this problem, but if this process is launched, foreign fighters must simultaneously leave the country.

Last Saturday, the Libyan Joint Military Committee 5+5 (JMC) announced that it had agreed on a set of points, during the seventh round of negotiations in a meeting in coastal city of Sirte.

The JMCs final statement said that specific measures and an urgent plan had been agreed upon to remove all mercenaries and foreign elements from Libyan territory.

Last Sunday, the Libyan High Council of State expressed its rejection of the request by the JMC to freeze the security agreements signed by the previous Government of National Accord (GNA) with Turkey, calling on the committee to keep away from political issues or international agreements.

Ankara has up to now refused to consider the departure of its military personnel and mercenaries claiming they are covered by bilateral agreements with Libya. On November 27, 2019, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Chairman of the Presidential Council of the former Libyan Government of National Accord, Fayez al-Sarraj, had signed two memoranda of understanding covering security cooperation and maritime areas.

The deal proved highly controversial in the region and politically prolarising in Libya.

The UN estimated in December that there were at least 20,000 foreign fighters and mercenaries in Libya, including Syrians, Russians, Sudanese and Chadians.

Last month, UN Special Envoy to Libya Jan Kubis said that factions starting the withdrawal of all foreign fighters from the country would be a major step for Libya.

Originally posted here:
Are Russia's Wagner mercenaries in Libya on the way out? | | AW - The Arab Weekly