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Mr Morrison has also opened the way to stand Mr Porter aside. The Prime Minister has taken advice from the Solicitor-General. He is now talking to his own department about how that sits with ministerial standards and intends to make further decisions about the West Australian MPs future.

The Prime Minister said he was very open to the idea of introducing quotas for female MPs. Labor introduced quotas for women running in winnable seats in the mid-1990s, which has led to almost half the federal caucus being female compared with just one-quarter of the Coalition.

Ministers Marise Payne, Karen Andrews, Sussan Ley and Melissa Price spoke out in support of the measure along with a slate of other Liberal MPs as the party searches for ways to recruit more women into Parliament in an effort to change its culture.

We tried it the other way and it isnt getting us the results we would like to see, so I would like to see us do better on that front, Mr Morrison said, adding he thought many other Liberals were coming to a similar view.

Ms Andrews is one of those changing her mind, saying the work done so far hasnt had the success that its needed so far.

Ive always been quite anti-quotas because I felt that it was a disadvantage to women because they would be perceived as only getting promoted, only getting a job because they were a number, she said. We cant continue doing the same thing and expect a different outcome. So Im certainly open to a discussion about quotas.

Cabinet minister Karen Andrews has flipped her anti-quotas stance because the Liberals hadnt been successful at getting enough women into parliament.Credit:Allex Ellinghausen

Ms Ley said that right now she was for the outcome more than the mechanism but she had called for a debate on quotas for some time.

We need more women believing they can run for politics and knowing they will be supported in doing so, she said.

Senator Payne, the Minister for Women, said there were significant frustrations in encouraging more Liberal women into Parliament and the party should take a good, hard look at quotas because, clearly, there are ongoing issues that mean in parts of our organisation we have not been able to achieve the outcomes we want.

Ms Price said the party had to have a serious conversation involving men and women about what quotas would mean, although she did not see them as the only answer.

Liberal backbencher Katie Allen said she was open to quotas if they helped get more women in the decision-making room, and Senator Hollie Hughes said everything should be back on the table. Veteran MP Russell Broadbent, who has asked the Prime Minister to convene a summit of womens organisations, also thinks quotas are a good idea.

Melissa McIntosh, who represents the western Sydney seat Lindsay, said she had an honest and detailed discussion with the Prime Minister last week that included talking about the experience in the corporate sector with quotas and other mechanisms such as mentorship programs that were effective at elevating women into leadership positions.

The corporate sector has for many years been implementing quotas, and I support evidence-based programs drawing on the experience of the corporate sector that have proven success, she said.

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However, other female MPs, including Fiona Martin and Nicolle Flint, believe reportable targets are a better option than mandatory quotas.

I didnt come to Canberra to fill a quota, Dr Martin said.

The Liberal Partys federal executive has recently backed a range of measures aimed at increasing the number of women among its ranks, including continuing the Enid Lyons Fighting Fund to support Liberal women running for office or re-election. Half of the new federal MPs elected in 2019 were women.

Progress has been made. However, much more needs to be done, a party spokesman said.

Mr Morrison acknowledged that many people had not liked or appreciated his own personal responses to the allegations of sexual assault and harassment.

He has come under criticism first for saying his wife, Jenny, had told him to think about Ms Higgins as if she were one of his daughters, and for making remarks in Parliament that were interpreted as saying women should be grateful they were not shot for protesting. But he said he had listened to the stories of women over the past month.

He spoke of women being too afraid to call out bad behaviour for fear of losing their job, of being overlooked and treated like they have nothing valuable to contribute.

I have heard about being marginalised, women being intimidated, women being belittled, women being diminished, and women being objectified. That is not OK. Women who are afraid to walk to their car from the train, and they carry their keys in their hand like a knife for fear of being attacked. That is not OK. That is not acceptable, Mr Morrison said.

Colleagues in the party room said they believed the Prime Minister was now leaning into the issue and pointed out he had a history of getting behind issues only when he intended to act.

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Mr Morrison addressed all Coalition staff on Tuesday afternoon and said there would soon be mandatory face-to-face workplace health and safety training for MPs and staff. He also intends to establish a Coalition staff reference group as a catch-all advocacy team where people could raise issues informally, ask for advice and have complaints taken forward anonymously, and a Coalition human resources team to provide more formal guidance.

A Coalition staffer was sacked on Monday night for filming himself performing a sex act over a female Liberal MPs desk, while another video showed him performing a sex act on a man in a parliamentary office.

The government is trying to find out the identities of other staff Ten News reported had shared photos and videos of themselves performing lewd acts in Parliament House.

Finance Minister Simon Birmingham, whose department is the formal employer of all political staff, said the only thing standing between other staff members involved and their being sacked was their identification.

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He said colleagues were engaging with the female MP whose office appeared in one of the videos and she had been made aware of her options if she wanted further support.

Labors Don Farrell asked Senator Birmingham in a Senate estimates hearing whether he was aware that non-political staff in Parliament House had attempted to meet union representatives with concerns about the Ten News reports, but the union officials were blocked from entering the building. Senator Birmingham said it was the first he or Senate President Scott Ryan had heard of the matter and undertook to investigate.

The governments formal response to Sex Discrimination Commissioner Kate Jenkins landmark workplace sexual harassment report, Respect@Work, is now expected within weeks.

Ms Jenkins is also starting a review of the workplace culture within Parliament House, and outlined her plans to Coalition MPs on Tuesday. She met with Labor MPs and staff last week. She made it clear her intention was not to investigate individual complaints but to outline how to create the cultural reform needed.

National Sexual Assault, Family & Domestic Violence Counselling Line: 1800 737 732.

Our Morning Edition newsletter is a curated guide to the most important and interesting stories, analysis and insights. Sign up toThe Sydney Morning Heralds newsletterhere,The Ageshere,Brisbane Timeshere, andWAtodayshere.

Katina Curtis is a political reporter for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, based at Parliament House in Canberra.

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We tried it the other way: Morrison and ministers push Liberals to adopt quotas - Sydney Morning Herald

By: Editorial Staff | Updated: Mar-2, 2018

In the US, Liberal and Democratic views often overlap, but is there really a difference between the two?

Modern liberal ideas in the US started to form in the 20th century with the help of great statesmen such as Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, Harry Truman, John F. Kennedy, and Lyndon B. Johnson. In most cases, American liberals were at opposition with conservatives, but that was not always the case.

Modern liberalism has always been connected to progressivism and social liberalism, but currently the connection between liberal and progressive ideals has become a topic of much debate.

According to Wikipedia, John F. Kennedy defines a liberal as someone who cares about the welfare of the people their health, their housing, their schools, their civil rights, and their civil liberties

Franklin D. Roosevelt believed that the Government should be able to address the nations problems, and is duty-bound to do so with all its power and authority. This is to ensure that the average person has the right to his own economic and political life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.

Modern American liberalism is based on the Keynesian economic theory that holds that for a country to be prosperous, the government must be heavily involved in managing every aspect of the countrys economy. Liberals place institutions that fight economic inequality in high regard. They believe everyone should have equal access to healthcare and economic opportunities and also stress the importance of protecting the environment.

Democrats form one of the two most prominent political parties in the US, along with the Republicans. Its roots go back to Thomas Jefferson and James Madison. The Democratic Party we now know today was established around 1828 and is considered the oldest, active political party in the world.

The Democrats once held on to classical liberalist ideals, particularly in the South where populism, or the notion that elites are oppressing the virtuous and can be overthrown if people worked together, was prevalent. In the 1890s, it leaned more to the left in terms of an economic standpoint.

Franklin D. Roosevelt along with his New Deal coalition introduced social-liberal platforms promoting social justice. Today, the Democratic Party is made up of progressives and centrists, and a small percentage of conservative Democrats.

The Democratic Partys ideals are based on modern liberalism principles. It believes that it is the governments job to uphold economic and social equality. Democrats seek to have the government intervene and regulate the economy, introduce social programs, provide universal health care, support labor groups, promote equal economic opportunity, and protect consumer rights and the environment.

So now, whats the difference between a liberal and a democrat?

Democrats are practically liberals, even if they are divided into three types. Liberals believe in social justice and equality (made possible by the government) just as much as Democrats do. Both believe that there can only be liberty if the people are afforded access to important services such as healthcare and education. Liberals and Democrats both agree on protecting the environment. For them, government should be able to regulate the economy to benefit everyone, including bridging the gap between the rich and the poor.

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Liberal vs Democrat - Difference

The Liberals who proposed and then scrapped Hwy. 413 before the Progressive Conservatives revived the controversial GTA freeway are promising to kill it once and for all if elected next year.

Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca said Monday he would cancel this sprawl-spreading highway and use the $8 billion in savings to build and renovate schools across Ontario.

Let me be clear, the 413 will not make your life better. Doug Ford wants to build it to make his billionaire friends happy, he told reporters.

Del Duca was a transportation minister in the government of former Liberal premier Kathleen Wynne, who kiboshed the Vaughan-Brampton-Caledon-Milton highway in 2018, years after her Grit predecessor, Dalton McGuinty, first proposed it.

Ontario Liberals stopped this reckless project once before and we will do it again, the Liberal leader said, insisting only wealthy developers who bankroll the Tories want it built.

It is inconceivable to me that Doug Ford wants to spend billions paving over farmland, destroying wetlands and undermining the Greenbelt all for a highway that will only save some commuters mere seconds.

Fords Conservatives revived the GTA West Transportation Corridor, as Hwy. 413 is formally known, even as they are promising to expand the 800,000-hectare Greenbelt around the Greater Toronto Area.

But local councils in municipalities that would be affected by the highway have been voting against it, including in Vaughan and Mississauga.

Ealier this month, NDP Leader Andrea Horwath said theres no doubt in my mind that Hwy. 413 is the wrong thing to do.

This is all about Doug Ford giving more opportunity for his developer friends to pave Greenbelt lands, to develop farmland for housing and other kind of development, said Horwath, noting it is completely backwards to promote urban sprawl.

There is no reason for that highway to be built and there are many, many reasons for it not to be built.

Green Leader Mike Schreiner also opposes the highway.

Mindful of growing opposition to its construction and aware that a federal environmental assessment could derail it as early as May, the Tories appear to be inching away from it.

Government house leader Paul Calandra stressed three weeks ago that Hwy. 413 is not a done deal.

Theres still a tremendous amount of work that needs to be done here: some consultations that have to happen with our partners in the area, an environmental assessment, Calandra said March 1.

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Once we accomplish all these consultations, if it makes sense for the highway to proceed, it will; if it doesnt, we wont, the minister said.

Robert Benzie is the Stars Queens Park bureau chief and a reporter covering Ontario politics. Follow him on Twitter: @robertbenzie

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Liberals would kill Hwy. 413 'once and for all' and invest the $8B in school repair and construction, Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca says -...

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In a 2015 speech to the NSW Liberal Party State Council, then prime minister Malcolm Turnbull declared we are not run by factions. It was a claim that had the party faithful rolling in the aisles.

While Labor organises along strict Left-Right lines (with some smaller sub-factions, often allied with a specific union) the Liberal Party is far more byzantine. Nevertheless, factions or ideological groupings play an important role in organising the modern parliamentary party.

To report this story, The Sun-Herald and The Sunday Age conducted more than 50 interviews with 39 MPs in the 91-member federal parliamentary Liberal Party.

What emerged was agreement on two key points.

There are three broad groupings within the party a Moderate or Modern Liberals wing, with Finance Minister Simon Birmingham as its leader; a Morrison Club/Centre-Right grouping led by the Prime Minister; and a National Right group led by Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton.

The second key point is that MPs (except for the unaligned few) are drawn to one of these three groups by overlapping interests that span their state of origin and the region theyre from, allegiance to a powerful individual, faith, ideology, philosophical interests and their year of election.

The NSW and South Australian divisions of the party are the most similar to Labor in that they have a factional structure (Moderate, National Right and in the case of NSW, Centre Right). In Victoria factional allegiances are largely based on personalities and the party has been riven by divisions for at least a decade since the faction led by former federal treasurer Peter Costello and powerbroker Michael Kroger fell apart. Treasurer Josh Frydenberg close to Kroger and National Right powerbroker Michael Sukkar leads the Victorian ambition faction after he thrashed his friend, Health Minister Greg Hunt, in the contest for the deputy Liberal leadership in 2018, while the Costello group has largely faded away.

The running joke among party moderates is that in Queensland, WA and Tasmania there are no moderates like Canberras version of the Tasmanian Tiger or the Grampians Puma, there are people who swear they exist, but they rarely break cover in public.

So how do Liberal MPs align when it comes to factions? How can they be in more than one group? Who is in the ambition faction? Who is in the Prayer Group? And who are the Monkey Pod Lunch Conservatives?

To understand how the Liberal Party works, a good starting point is former Howard government minister David Kemps 1973 essay A Leader and a Philosophy. Liberal factions tend to be very different to Labors factions, Kemp says, they arent organised in the same way and they tend to cut across each other on different issues, its not as clear-cut and there is much more fluidity.

The groupings in the Liberal Party tend to be around personalities and issues but you get people with similar views in different groups.

This observation is crucial. In the 1980s and 90s there were the dries, who emphasised free-market economics and conservative social policy, and the wets, who favoured more progressive social policy and bigger government, but those groups are no more.

These days the Moderate faction is the leading advocate of free-market economics whereas the National Right is more concerned with social issues: religious freedoms, gender identity, national security and, until recently, opposing same-sex marriage.

Climate change is still a lightning rod: the Moderates favour stronger action to mitigate it, the National Right counts some sceptics among its number and the Centre Right takes a pragmatic, middle-of-the-pack approach (as it does on many other issues).

Personalities in the Liberal constellation of alliances and leaders accrue personal loyalty over time especially from those they bring into parliament, such as the 15 new MPs who won their seats in 2019.

While the partys factional lines are on clearest display during leadership spills, the groups are always present, working behind the scenes. And while the party does not rely on factions to organise and manage policy debates to the extent that Labor does, the groupings play a key role in managing competing interests.

Assistant Minister to the Prime Minister Ben Morton with Prime Minister Scott Morrison in May 2019.Credit:Alex Ellinghausen

Scott Morrison is the titular head of the Morrison Club/Centre Right group. Outside NSW, where the Centre Right is an organised faction, this grouping is the least formally structured of the three main groups. It doesnt meet on a regular basis and is really several overlapping groups with shared interests and Morrison as its figurehead.

The groups unifying philosophy is pragmatism - that means an adherence to free-market economics (but with enough flexibility to splash billions to prop up the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic) and relatively conservative social values.

As one member of the group puts it, we realise you dont win elections by yelling at people about abortion. We are dry economically and socially conservative but not in an in your face way.

Morrisons club primarily consists of MPs who entered parliament when he did, in 2007: Alex Hawke, the factional organiser of the Centre Right in NSW, Queenslander Stuart Robert and West Australian Steve Irons. This core group is also defined by their shared faith (all are members of the Prayer Group more on that below) and their lets get things done approach.

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Ben Morton, another West Australian and, like Morrison, a former state division director, is one of the PMs closest and most able lieutenants but if Morrison were not in the parliament, Mortons philosophical home would be the National Right.

In NSW, Morrison and Hawke have five other rusted-on supporters in Hollie Hughes, Melissa McIntosh, Lucy Wicks, Julian Leeser and Jim Molan. Environment Minister Sussan Ley, also from NSW, is part of the Morrison Club but historically has been a moderate and so isnt considered a core member of the Centre Right.

About half of Treasurer Josh Frydenbergs Victorian group, including Hunt, Trade Minister Dan Tehan and a handful of others, belong to the Morrison Club. A large cohort of Queenslanders, many of them first-termers, people of faith or both, and some MPs from other states are also members of the Morrison Club. In all, about half of the Prayer Group belongs to the Centre Right while the other half is in the National Right.

Both Moderates and National Right members argue that some MPs self-nominate as members of the Centre Right because its the Morrison Club personal loyalty to the PM matters, particularly for the class of 2019.

MPs who have historically been moderates but are in the Morrison Club include Hunt, Ley, Hughes, Anne Ruston, Jason Wood, Julian Leeser, Sarah Henderson and Rowan Ramsey.

On the day that Morrison leaves parliament, its likely the Centre Right will begin to lose members back to the other two factions unless Frydenberg, the clear heir apparent to the Liberal leadership, can hold the club together. Its important to remember that back in 2014 there was a (Joe) Hockey Club but political trajectories can reverse in an instant.

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, who is part of the Morrison Club, and Finance Minister Simon Birmingham, a Moderate. Credit:Alex Ellinghausen

Simon Birmingham, Marise Payne and Paul Fletcher are the three most influential Moderates in the federal Liberal Party. All three are cut from similar cloth and are quieter personalities than their factional predecessors Christopher Pyne, Julie Bishop and George Brandis.

The Moderates dont have a weekly meeting when parliament sits. Instead, they meet to discuss specific policies or legislation on a more ad hoc basis.

A grouping within the larger is dubbed the New Guard Moderates or Modern Liberals. Elected in 2016 or 2019, they typically represent inner-city lower house seats or are in the Senate.

This group are more economically dry than their elder colleagues, progressive on social issues and, if anything, willing to advocate for more ambitious climate change policy. As one member puts it: We are Menzies Liberals, the live and let live people. And we are the old dries and wets at the same time.

The New Guard have landed the chairmanships of some of parliaments most important committees, including mental health (Fiona Martin), taxation (Jason Falinski), economics (Tim Wilson), Fintech (Andrew Bragg) and treaties (Dave Sharma).

Nearly three years on from the spill, the PM has broad support across the party from all three factions.

As chief political correspondent David Crowe wrote in Venom, his book about the fall of Turnbull and the rise of Morrison, Morrison beat Dutton and Julie Bishop in the 2018 leadership contest because his core group of about 15 supporters was able to weld together an alliance that also included the Moderates, securing him his 45-40 victory in the party room.

Nearly three years on from the spill, the PM a natural conservative, not an ideological conservative, as one of his allies puts it has broad support from all three factions.

But that doesnt mean the Moderates are always happy with the PMs policy approach. Some feel he takes the Moderates support for granted; and they believe that, in a post-Morrison era, a lot of people in the Centre Right, in particular, will move back to us.

Peter Dutton is possibly the least well-understood conservative in Parliament.Credit:Alex Ellinghausen

The National Right (sometimes called the Hard Right) is the most organised faction in the Liberal Party and is undergoing a changing of the guard. For years its figureheads were Tony Abbott, Eric Abetz and Kevin Andrews. Abbott has, of course, left the building, Andrews has lost preselection and Abetz is facing a challenge from his former staffer, Jonathon Duniam, for the top spot on the Tasmanian Senate ticket.

Peter Dutton, the notional leader of the faction, is perhaps the least well-understood conservative in the parliament. He is best described as a national security conservative rather than a religious conservative, and is arguably more socially progressive than the Prime Minister.

Michaelia Cash has begun to fill that vacuum, as has rising star MP Andrew Hastie, but Mathias Cormann casts a long shadow in the west.

The exit of Mathias Cormann, Duttons close friend, has left a big gap in the National Right and in WA in particular. Senator Michaelia Cash has begun to fill that vacuum, as has MP Andrew Hastie, but the former senator casts a long shadow in the west. Angus Taylor is an important figure, insofar as hes a member of the cabinet, but doesnt tend to wield influence in factional brawls over preselections.

Victorias Michael Sukkar and the ACTs Zed Seselja have risen through the ranks and are now involved in everything from organising the annual National Right dinner to influencing internal policy debates (incidentally, the Moderates have a similar annual meal known as the Black Hand dinner, while the Centre Right doesnt have a comparable event but some attend the National Right meal).

Sukkar also wields significant influence over preselection in his home state. Hastie, as well as Queenslander Amanda Stoker and South Australian Tony Pasin, are also increasingly influential.

The National Right is more likely to speak with one voice on social policy rather than economic policy. As a member of the faction puts it, the group believes in government that is as big as it has to be and the acceptance that the future of the Liberal Party is in the outer suburbs and the regions.

We believe in defending the value of institutions that have stood the test of time.

Philosophically, the National Right and the Morrison Club have a lot in common - its a question of degrees of emphasis on specific policies - and many members could be at home in either group.

The fact that many MPs belong to more than one group underscores the partys less formal factional alignments and how interests overlap.

Key sub-groups include the Prayer Group, the Monkey Pod Lunch Conservatives, Frydenbergs Victorian group, the Rural and Regional Liberals, the Veterans group and the Morrison-Hawke Centre Right in NSW.

The Prayer Group has, at its core, the Prime Minister and some of his key allies including Irons and Robert. While some of its members are Pentecostal Christians like the PM, its not an exclusive club there are also Catholic members and Julian Leeser, who is Jewish.The group also includes members of the National Right such as Andrew Hastie, Amanda Stoker and Jonathon Duniam underscoring the confluence of interests among the National Right and the Centre Right.

Convened by Peter Dutton, the group shares a philosophical outlook, discusses policy and shares takeaway lunch on a Tuesday.

The Monkey Pod Lunch group first revealed back in 2015, and named after the tropical hardwood tree table in a meeting room in the ministerial wing of Parliament House is a group of like-minded National Right conservatives. Convened by Dutton, the group discusses policy and shares takeaway lunch on a Tuesday.

The Rural and Regional grouping of Liberals, convened by South Australian Rowan Ramsey and with at least 19 members, exists to advance regional Liberal interests in contra-distinction to the 21 Nationals MPs. Though they wouldnt be considered a faction, this Liberal group is designed to ensure the party maintains a strong presence in the bush.

Other groupings include Frydenbergs Victorian ambition faction, which takes in members of the Centre Right and the National Right. This group has 10 members, meets semi-regularly when in Canberra, and works to ensure its preferred Victorian candidates are preselected, but at a national level is split in two.

Theres also a Veterans group with eight members that includes Stuart Robert, Andrew Hastie, Phillip Thompson, Gavin Pearce, Jim Molan, Vince Connelly, Andrew McLachlan and David Fawcett but not Defence Minister Linda Reynolds, a former brigadier in the Army Reserve.

Celia Hammond (here being congratulated after her maiden speech in 2019 by Treasurer Josh Frydenberg and Prime Minister Scott Morrison) has ties to all three main groupings.Credit:Alex Ellinghausen

Then there are the independents. House Speaker Tony Smith and Senate president Scott Ryan (both Victorians) were, back in the day, dyed-in-the- wool members of the Costello faction in Victoria but that faction no longer exists. Tim Wilson, Jane Hume and Katie Allen are (broadly speaking) members of the Moderates but would be more likely to describe themselves as Classical, or even Menzies, Liberals.

WA Senator Dean Smith now tells colleagues he is a faction of one.

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WA senator Dean Smith is by disposition an arch-conservative (and monarchist) but he was also a leading proponent of same-sex marriage and now tells colleagues he is a faction of one. Fellow West Australian Celia Hammond straddles all three groups she was backed by the National Rights Cormann to take Julie Bishops seat, is a member of the Prayer Group and holds progressive views on climate change.

Fairfax MP Ted OBrien is not factionally aligned but is one of the key organisers of a Team Queensland group of MPs (which could be considered another grouping). Fellow Queenslander Andrew Laming is considered so mercurial as to be an independent.

The independents have plenty in common with each of the three groups but they also underscore just how fluid Liberal Party allegiances can be.

Read also: Whos who in Labors Left and Right factions?

An earlier version of this article said that Senator James Paterson is a member of the New Guard Moderates sub-faction. This is not correct, he is in the National Right. The article has also been updated to reflect the fact that Senator Andrew Bragg is chair of the Fintech committee.

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Whos who in the Liberals left, right and centre factions? - Sydney Morning Herald

The 13 ridings that deprived the Liberals of winning a majority government in the last federal election are still too close to call and will be key battlegrounds in determining the outcome of the next election, say pollsters.

What stands out from the list is that the Liberals are still short of a majority, said Nik Nanos, chief data scientist for Nanos Research, in an interview with The Hill Times. And the ridings that were toss-ups in the last federal election for the Liberals, which they barely lost, most of them remain very, very tight races.

The 13 closest losses for the Liberals include seven in Ontario, three in Quebec and one each in Manitoba, British Columbia and Nova Scotia. Of these, the Conservatives won nine; the Bloc won three and the NDP one seat.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his security detail, pictured March 12, 2021, leaving the West Block for a media availability at the Sir John A. Macdonald building in Ottawa. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade

If the Liberals had won 22,590 more votes in these 13 ridings depending on the margins in each, they could have won a majority. In the 338-member House, the winning party needs at least 170 seats to form a majority government.

In 2019, Prime Minister Justin Trudeaus (Papineau, Que.) Liberals lost the popular vote to then Andrew Scheers (Regina-QuAppelle, Sask.) Conservatives, but still won more seats than their chief rivals.

Of the 18.1-million votes cast, according to Elections Canada, the Conservatives won 6,239,227 votes, but ended up with only 121 seats, while the Liberals won 6,018,728 votes and still carried 157 seats. The NDP won 2,903,722 votes garnering 39 seats; the Green Party won 1,189,607 votes that translated into three seats. The Bloc Qubcois, which fields candidates only in Quebec, won 1,387,030 votes and carried 32 seats.

If they [Liberals] had another, 22,000 to 23,000 votes in the right ridings in the right place [in the 13 ridings], they could have converted [their minority] into a majority in the House of Commons, even if they had lost the popular support federally on a national basis, said Mr. Nanos.

The lowest margin by which the Liberal lost one of the 13 ridings was 1.5 per cent or by 898 votes in the riding of Shefford, Que., while the highest margin was 5.2 per cent, or 2,417 votes inCharleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley, Man.

Pollster Nik Nanos of Nanos Research says that almost all 13 ridings that the Liberals lost in 2019 with closest margins are still too close to call. The Hill Times file photograph

Mr. Nanos said according to his Nanos Time Map Modelling, based on historic data and the latest polling data to make monthly projections on individual ridings, almost all ridings in the list of 13 are still too close to call.

Mr. Nanos said the ridings decided by small margins in an election mean the national campaigns were not good enough to push the candidate over the winning line. Also, he said, this means that local riding factors, including the get-out-the-vote efforts, canvassing, the quality of the candidates, and organizations fell short.

So if youre a party that wins the election, and, in a particular place, you lost by like two per cent or less, the first thing you look at is the local situation, said Mr. Nanos. Did the party have a strong candidate? Whats the state of organization at the local level to mobilize voters to get out and vote? So, a lot of times, theyre their local factors for the ridings that are on the margins.

In the next election, Mr. Nanos said the 13 ridings will be critical and a good starting point both for the winners and runners-up. The ridings could make the difference in deciding a minority or the majority government, he said.

Youre looking at these ridings as the ones that you want at the top of your priority list, as part of your strategy to win a majority mandate, because it requires the least amount of effort, said Mr. Nanos. And these ridings will also be the priorities for the candidates that won the ridings.

Based on his polling, Mr. Nanos said that there are 64 ridings 21 ridings that are within two per cent margin wins and 43 within two to seven per cent margin winsat this time that are too close to call.

Earl Washburn, a senior analyst with Ekos Research, said a characteristic that stands out in the list is that almost all 13 ridings are suburban. Going forward, he said, suburban ridings will be even more important than before in the outcome of any election because a significant number of millennials are moving to the suburbs for affordability reasons, as due to the global pandemic, they dont have to commute to work anymore.This means the residents of suburbs will be more progressive than before and he expects this trend to continue.

Itll be a continuation of the trends that weve seen in the last decade, suburbs will become more Liberal-leaning as we go along, said Mr. Washburn.Thats really what your story is going to be when the federal election comes around: which party is going to be able to win over those kinds of seats.

Mr. Washburn confirmed that his own polling confirms Mr. Nanos projections that almost all 13 ridings are still too close to call and nothing much has changed. One key factor, among others, that could tip the balance in favour of one party or the other, especially in smaller city suburban ridings, is the quality of the candidates, he said.

Suburban ridings are less candidate-based, they vote more on the party, said Mr. Washburn. But in some of these other ridings, like Trois-Rivires, or West Nova, Kenora, even Niagara Falls, theyre ridings that vote more on the candidate versus the party.

Pollster Greg Lyle of Innovative Research says that considering the setbacks Liberals had in 2019, hes not surprised the Liberals lost the 13 ridings with close margins. Photograph courtesy of Greg Lyle

Greg Lyle, president of Innovative Research, said that the list does not include any downtown ridings in any of the major urban centres and consists of suburban, rural and smaller cities. He said this shows that there are as many swing ridings inside the 905-region, well-known for swing ridings and having a major influence on election results, as there are outside of the 905. Considering the fact that the Liberals suffered a number of setbacks right before and during the last election campaign, he said, its not surprising that the Liberals lost these 13 ridings with close margins that could have pushed them into the majority territory.

That was not a great election for the Liberals, said Mr. Lyle. I mean, they came out of the SNC-Lavalin controversy and walked intothe blackface controversy. A lot of things did go wrong. So its not hard to see why they fell short.

For the next election, he said, both of the main parties will be targeting these 13 ridings as the incumbents would like to keep those ridings in their column while the Liberals would try to win them thinking they came very close to winning in the last election.

Former Liberal MP John Aldag represented the riding of Cloverdale-Langley City, B.C., from 2015 to 2019, but lost to Conservative Tamara Jansen by a margin of 2.5 per cent of the votes in 2019. Mr. Aldag said there were a number of factors that contributed to his loss, including the political controversies, negative campaign tactics by opposition parties, and bad weather on election day. He said he was recently nominated to run for the Liberals in the next election and will be redoubling his efforts to win the riding back.

Mr. Aldag said that the current projection for the riding, which is too close to call, does not worry him as polling numbers go up and down depending on the day. He pointed out that the Liberal Partys numbers went down in the last few weeks because of the interruption in the vaccine rollout but now that the rollout is returning back on track, the numbers are improving, he said.

Polls change from time to time, and Ive been watching it, said Mr. Aldag.

When we go into a campaign, whenever that is, [constituents] will be looking at the record of myself and the record of the person who defeated me and just letting voters choose who they would want to be the representative in Ottawa.

Former Liberal MP and cabinet minister Bob Nault who lost his riding in 2019 says he will not run in the next election. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade

Former Liberal MP Bob Nault, who represented the riding of Kenora, Ont., for six terms and lost the riding to Conservative MP Eric Melillo by a margin of four per cent in 2019, said hes not planning on running in the next election. As of last week, the Liberals had not nominated a candidate in the riding, which is the largest in landmass in the province but the smallest in population, and is home to 42 First Nations. The Liberals lost this riding byonly 1,110 votes and Mr. Nault said that one key factor that led to losing in 2019 was that it was a three-way race in which the division of the progressive vote led to the Conservatives winning this riding. Mr. Melillo won 34 per cent of the votes, the Liberals 30 per cent, the NDP 28.5, and the Greens 5.5 per cent. Mr. Nault said that if theres one thing that he could have done more in the last election was to put in more resources into his GOTV efforts, which is always a major challenge in a rural riding like Kenora where some regions are not accessible by road.

I door-knocked as much as I possibly could in the communities that you can door-knock, said Mr. Nault. But now, remember, the only way somebody can get to 24 communities out of those 42 First Nations, is you have to fly. Theres no road, right. Its a little bit more complicated.

The 13 Ridings That Denied Liberals A Majority in the 2019 Federal Election

Riding Name MP Name Vote Margin Percentage Margin

Shefford, Que. Bloc MP Andranne Larouche 898 1.5%

Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill, Ont. Conservative MP Leona Alleslev 1,060 2%

Kenora, Ont. Conservative MP Eric Melillo 1,110 4%

West Nova, N.S. Conservative MP Chris dEntremont 1,365 2.9%

Cloverdale-Langley City, B.C. Conservative MP Tamara Jansen 1,94 2.5%

Trois-Rivires, Que. Bloc MP Louise Charbonneau 1,466 2.4%

Flamborough-Glanbrook, Ont. Conservative MP David Sweet 1,652 2.6%

Windsor West, Ont. NDP MP Brian Masse 1,922 3.7%

Niagara Falls, Ont. Conservative MP Tony Baldinelli 2,061 3%

*Hastings-Lennox and Addington, Ont. Ind. MP Derek Sloan 2,247 4.3%

Northumberland-Peterborough South, Ont. Conservative MP Philip Lawrence 2,408 3.5%

Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley, Man. Conservative MP Marty Morantz 2,417 5.2%

Longueuil-Saint Hurbert, Que. Bloc MP Denis Trudel 2,590 4.3%

*Derek Sloan was elected as a Conservative MP in the 2019 election but now is sitting as an Independent MP.

Data compiled by The Hill Times deputy digital editor Samantha Wright Allen

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The 13 ridings that denied Liberals majority in 2019 still too close to call, say pollsters - The Hill Times