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We're rounding the final bend, but the election campaign marathon is now becoming a sprint to the finish, with political parties of all stripes upping their campaign pace and ad spend.

Analysis of social media spending data and the movements of major party leaders suggests neither party vying for government wants to leave anything on the table in their bid to form government in less than a week.

And the data suggests that if you're sick of the campaign already, you might want to switch off social media for the next week, because the advertising is only ramping up.

Data from Facebook's ad library report shows that in the week ending Tuesday, more than $3 million was spent by advertisers in Australia on election, political and social issues.

That's up from about $2 million the week prior.

The figures include not-for-profit groups and other campaigners running ads on issues not explicitly linked to the federal election.

Spending is up everywhere, but when you account for the populations of each state and territory, we see that Tasmanians are getting far more attention than any other Australians.

That reflects the fact that a sizeable chunk of the island state's population lives in a crucial marginal seat, and the narrowing attention on key seats as targets for ads advertising.

The spend may well exceed the levels seen during the Tasmanian state election campaign last year, before the campaign winds up.

While everyone is upping the ante, one party has escalated quicker than the others.

The ABC has categorised each Facebook advertiser that has spent more than $100 in a single day on the platform at any point this year, according to whether they are political in nature, and which party or group they belong to.

Doing this gives a more comprehensive look at spending patterns across the parties than by looking at any individual candidate or party account.

The analysis shows that while the major parties had been in relative lock step through to mid-way through the campaign, Labor has since rapidly increased its spend on the platform.

Most of Labor's spend has been on the national party account, which has also dialed up its negative messaging since the first day of the campaign.

The ABC has looked at the messaging in all ads with at least $200 spent on them on the major party's main account, and classified them as primarily positive, or primarily negative.

Precise dollar figures for each ad are not disclosed by Facebook, but the ads represent, counting very conservatively, at least $1.3 million worth of spending.

The analysis does not consider any ad on any candidate or state party page.

Labor's account started the campaign purely positive, but that quickly shifted.

It swung the dial entirely negative in late April with a barrage of attack ads about Scott Morrison, but has since moderated to the point where roughly half of its ads are negative.

Meanwhile, every single ad the Liberal Party has spent more than $200 on since April 26 has been negative, attacking either Labor, Anthony Albanese, Labor candidates, or independents.

Those are the big ads at least, but both major parties are also running scores of ads with smaller spends, and the messages in those vary.

The Liberals launched a series of ads targeted at individual electorates this week.

The ads promoting "Our Plan"have been running in at least 23 key seats, featuring the party's candidates and MPs.

But the plan changes from seat to seat.

While everyone's being told the Liberals will deliver "More Jobs", "Lower Taxes", "Better Health"and "Better Roads", the fifth plank of the plan varies.

In 16 seats, including Corangamite, Pearce, and Braddon, "Stronger Defence"is being promised.

But in other seats, including those like Kooyong and Goldstein being challenged by teal independents, voters are being told about the plan for a "Cleaner Environment".

The other seats that the Liberals clearly feel like the environment is a key issue are Flinders, Curtin, Sturt, Chisholm and Boothby.

The party is also tailoring its message in other parts of the country, like in Canberra, where the local branch of the Liberal Party is chasing the vote of consultants.

"Do you work as a contractor or consultant to the APS," the ad asks.

"Under a Labor-Greens Alliance your job is at serious risk."

It's possibly the only part of the country where they make up a significant enough voting bloc to warrant direct targeting.

This week, Labor has again been running ads to older Australians, stoking fears about the cashless debit card.

One ad bought by Queensland Labor features a pensioner from Bribie Island, who says "I won't risk my pension on Scott Morrison".

Bribie Island is located in the key marginal seat of Longman, currently held by the LNP on a 3.3 per cent margin.

Victorian Labor is also running ads on the topic, promising to "scrap the cashless debit card".

While proving the effectiveness of any individual ad is an impossible task, Google Trends data does reveal a modest increase in search traffic for the term "cashless debit" in those two states in the most recent week.

The same lift has not occurred in other states for which data is available.

Posted14 May 202214 May 2022Sat 14 May 2022 at 7:07pm, updated19h ago19 hours agoSun 15 May 2022 at 7:17am

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What Labor and Liberal Facebook ad spend tells us about where the election campaign is heading - ABC News

With the election heating up, local candidates are busy trying to prove theyre the best fit to represent constituents at Queens Park. But the races are tight and all kinds of factors could swing the outcomes. Today, we take a closer look at three compelling ridings, and what candidates are up against.

As he chats breezily with customers at a small Caribbean lunch counter, Faisal Hassan doesnt look like a guy in a fight for his political life.

Hey, how are you? Family doing well? says Hassan as a customer comes up to greet him while hes waiting in line for tea at Fahmee Bakery.

Another asks if Hassan can help a relative out, and hands him a business card.

Let me see what I can do, says Hassan.

But the relatively cheerful tone belies the fact Hassan could be facing the prospect of becoming a one-term MPP.

In a riding that was previously represented by a Liberal at Queens Park for all but a few months of its existence, Hassan is already swimming upstream as the NDP candidate in York SouthWeston. Throw in the fact that the Progressive Conservative candidate happens to be Mike Ford yes, Dougs nephew and being the incumbent suddenly doesnt seem like the automatic advantage it often can be.

Hassan insists hes not worried, and says Ford who represents a neighbouring district on Toronto city council isnt a serious threat.

If the PCs were going to win this riding, it would have been in 2018, says Hassan, referring to the previous election, when PC candidate Mark DeMontis finished a close second to Hassan, earning 32.95 per cent of the vote to Hassans 36.07. Incumbent Laura Albanese finished third, with 27.83 per cent, as voters swept Kathleen Wynnes Liberals out of office across the province. That was a wave. And waves come and go.

Besides, Hassan sniffs, Ford doesnt even live in the riding and he didnt resign his council seat to run.

Hows he going to represent our community? Whos looking after the people? Its all about somebodys career.

Ford, meanwhile, is careful to point out hes donating his council salary to charity during the provincial election campaign, and that his constituency office staff is still busily working away.

People can call the office, people can call some of the neighbouring councillors. They can call me, too, but I wont be able to get back to them as quickly as I usually do. Work is still getting done. People can still get help, says Ford.

As far as not living in the riding goes, Ford says its an area he knows well and not just because his council ward is right next door.

Its a community I know very well. Its a neighbourhood that Ive lived in and grew up here. Its a neighbourhood that I played hockey in, says Ford.

As for running in a riding that has never elected a PC candidate since it was first contested in 1999, Ford says he isnt trying to make a point. Its not, he says, like Justin Trudeau running for a House of Commons seat in the federal riding of Papineau, which had been a Bloc Qubcois stronghold.

It is not lost on me that this hasnt typically gone in the Conservatives direction, says Ford. I chose York SouthWeston because its a community I know well. I worked in the local councillors office for some time. I wouldnt put myself into a position where I would just go into a riding for the sake of going into a riding.

Ford, whose uncle Doug was swept into the premiers office on a PC wave four years ago and whose late uncle Rob was an often-controversial figure during his tenure as Torontos mayor isnt running away from his family name. Not that voters would let him, he says.

Lets put Doug and the PC party aside for a second. So many people come up to me and talk about Rob, and the work he did in our city and community connecting with people, says Ford. Rob is a big reason I got involved in politics and community service. He had a huge heart for this city.

But while acknowledging hes been inspired by his familys political history, Ford insists hes got his own way of doing things.

There are always preconceptions, theres no doubt about it. But I have a proven track record of getting the job done. Thats what Ive done at city hall for the last six years work with members of council of all stripes, says Ford, a claim backed up even by some of his most ardent opponents.

Joe Cressy, one of Toronto city councils most reliably left-wing votes, made fast friends with Mike Ford after Ford was elected to council in 2016, in his uncle Robs old ward.

I think I was elected at 30, and he was elected in his early 20s. We were the two youngest councillors. He used to jokingly refer to me as Old Man Cressy. We were the two kids on council, says Cressy, who recently resigned from council and is moving into a role with George Brown College.

Cressy and Ford would frequently tangle during council debates, but it never became bitter or personal, Cressy says.

Hes a conservative, proudly so, but hes also a very collaborative individual. And so Mike and I, we would debate against each other on the floor of council very strongly, and then wed go out for a beer afterwards together, says Cressy. Hes always been somebody whos been very clear in his politics, but very much a collaborative guy, and a decent, decent person.

But even if he offers a less combative style than his uncle Doug, Mike Ford still backs PC policies which havent been good for York SouthWeston, a riding that was hit hard during the COVID-19 pandemic, argue Hassan and Liberal candidate Nadia Guerrera, a veteran teacher with the Toronto Catholic District School Board.

It took us seven months to get a COVID-19 testing centre. And vaccines? They were going to other communities, says Hassan of the riding in the citys northwest corner, which early in the pandemic suffered some of the highest infection rates in the Greater Toronto Area.

That record during the pandemic will hurt Mike Fords chances on election day, says Guerrera, adding that many front-line workers at warehouses and manufacturers, as well as educators, live in the riding.

Theres a very strong anti-Ford sentiment in this riding, says Guerrera, who insists shes no long-shot, even though shes running against a big-name PC candidate and an NDP incumbent. In 2018, Guerrera finished a distant third for the Liberals in ParkdaleHigh Park, where Bhutila Karpoche cruised to victory for the NDP.

I dont think Im the underdog. The NDP incumbent hasnt delivered. Its a two-way race. And we are the progressive option.

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Originally posted here:
Can Doug Fords nephew topple the NDP incumbent in a Liberal riding? - Toronto Star

As the government fights for its life, John Howard, the Liberals living icon, has been on the campaign trail.

Its not all been smooth sailing for the veteran, however. When Anthony Albanese had his now infamous numbers lapse, Howards first reaction was an understanding So what?

This undermined the governments exploitation of Albaneses gaffe, bringing a quick clean up by Howard the following day.

On Saturday, Howard was campaigning in his old seat of Bennelong, which he lost, with the election, in 2007.

Howard weighed into the teal independents. These men and women are all posing as independents. Theyre not independents, theyre anti-Liberal groupies.

We hadnt heard the groupies sledge before. The governments favourite attacks have been to say the teals are fakes and a vote for them is a vote for Labor. Its claimed the teals some of whom do share information and resources are really a party. And its deeply frustrating for the Liberals that many of the teals are receiving generous funding from Climate 200.

The Liberals are using sledgehammers against the teals. But in the seats where these independents are considered seriously competitive with the Liberal incumbents, notably North Sydney and Wentworth in Sydney and Goldstein and Kooyong in Melbourne, could such attacks be counterproductive?

In an election when voters are disillusioned with the main parties, including their generally disrespectful tone, the Liberals have to take care in how they mount their arguments against these candidates who are running on issues such as integrity and, at least by implication, advocating a better way of doing the political conversation.

To dismiss them as groupies sounds insulting (and somewhat old-fashioned).Regardless of the arguments for and against their election, many of the teals have impressive backgrounds and present a good deal better than some of the backbenchers who sit behind Scott Morrison.

The suggestion by some of their critics that theyre just a version of Labor is simplistically binary. Allegra Spender (Wentworth) and Kate Chaney (Curtin) come from distinguished Liberal clans. Percy Spender, grandfather of Allegra, was central in the forging of the ANZUS treaty.

The teals are challenged by the government for standing only against Liberal MPs. This isnt surprising, for a couple of reasons.

The issues at the centre of their campaigns, climate change and an integrity body, are ones on which the government is lagging.

Beyond that, the seats where they have most potential appeal are the Liberal leafy electorates, where many usually-Liberal voters are put off by Morrison.

One would expect many women, especially, in these seats may be attracted to teals who are articulate, professional women like themselves. These female voters would find Morrisons ultra-blokey style uncongenial and alienating.

What many yet-to-decide voters will want from the Liberals is not insults against the teals but answers to the criticisms they are making of the government. But there are difficulties here for example, how can a Liberal MP respond to a teal about an integrity commission when the prime minister says he wont even introduce the integrity legislation unless Labor supports his model, which is almost universally criticised?

The government attacks the teals for not declaring who they would support in a hung parliament.

That might be frustrating some voters and the candidates could pay a price for that. And there is a real issue here. Despite the case made for its virtues, a hung parliament could bring instability and unpredictability.

But would you expect teals to be doing anything other than keeping their powder dry at this stage?

Firstly, in the real world of politics, why would they show their hand, even if they had made a decision? It would throw their campaigns off course.

Secondly, for some teals (as for some of the present crossbenchers assuming they are re-elected) it would depend on the precise details of the hung parliament (who got how many seats, who won the popular vote), and on what was on offer from the two leaders. Spender last week was frank: she hadnt made a decision, and would want to see what was on the negotiating table.

Both Morrison and Albanese say they would do no deals with crossbenchers in seeking to form government in a hung parliament. Maybe, maybe not. But one would expect most crossbenchers would have plenty of questions for the leaders as they made up their minds to whom they might give confidence and supply.

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View from The Hill: Could going too negative on 'teals' do Liberals more harm than good? - The Conversation Indonesia

For many progressives, Conservative leadership candidate Pierre Poilievre holds the appeal of an ingrown toenail. He exists only to slowly and relentlessly burrow under the skin, causing pain, frustration and annoyance. Fortunately for Poilievre, he doesnt have to sell himself to liberals, upper or lowercase.

His campaign raises legitimate questions about if he can broaden his appeal and win a general election, but that is no reason to assume he cant. In fact, someone in the Liberal party had better be working off the assumption that Poilievre will win the next election.

Without the electoral imagination to understand why people would vote for Poilievre, it will be difficult for Liberals to convince people why they shouldnt.

There are strategic exercises people who would never vote for Poilievre can use to build the case for him. They can show how Poilievre could win an election and give the Liberal party three years to build a plan to ensure that he does not.

People who have developed campaign messaging are familiar with the four boxes exercise. Participants come up with answers to fill message boxes titled what do we say about ourselves, what do we say about our opponents, what do our opponents say about us, and lastly, what do our opponents say about themselves.

The last one, what do opponents say about themselves, is often the most difficult and the most valuable. Describing your opponents ideas, using their language, forces people to explore why the other side may have appeal. Or, God forbid, a valid point.

Poilievre doesnt tell the people hes peddling grievance politics and blaming a system thats employed him his entire adult life. He says the government has left you behind, and that hes the guy to give you back your freedom to live your life while making sure you can afford it.

Your only response to that message cannot be that people are stupid for believing him.

Another exercise, taken from military planning, is the concept of a red team. The red team goes beyond understanding the other side and starts acting like them. Think of white-hat hackers, who attack cybersecurity systems to look for vulnerabilities so they can be fixed.

The smartest people the Liberals have should be writing policy memos in support of Poilievres policy to abolish the carbon tax, even attacking the Liberals for its implementation. Better Liberals attack their own policies and learn to defend them, than find themselves without answers when Poilievre does.

Blind spots can affect any organization united in a common cause. The State of Israel went so far as to create a doctrine colloquially referred to as the Tenth Man. Essentially, if nine people look at the same information and reach the same conclusion, the tenth one is obligated to argue the other side. (The most succinct explanation is found in World War Z, a largely underrated zombie movie.)

Rhetoric aside, Poilievre is talking about housing, affordability, inflation and freedom. He is also drawing large crowds and media coverage while he does it. If there are nine Liberals who dont think Poilievre can win the next election, it would be wise to have a tenth one arguing why he can and will.

Finding any politician detestable is no reason to think others will. There is plenty of outright hatred for Justin Trudeau in Conservative spaces, and hes beat them three times now.

If Pierre Poilievre becomes leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, Liberals need a plan to beat him during the next election campaign in three years. Its hard to plan for something that you dont believe will happen, which is why someone must make the case for why it will.

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To defeat Pierre Poilievre, Liberals will have to first understand his appeal - Toronto Star

Quebecs next provincial election is still more than five months away, but Liberal Leader Dominique Anglade is already on the campaign trail.

On Thursday, the official Opposition leader was in Trois-Rivires, Que., a city of 140,000 people halfway between Montreal and Quebec City, promising more political power for the regions a term often used in Quebec to describe rural and less-populated parts of the province.

The Liberals arent doing well in the regions, which are mostly francophone. Last general election, in 2018, the party won four seats outside the greaterMontrealarea, where its base of anglophone and immigrant voters resides. Since then, the Liberals lost two of those four seats in byelections.

READ MORE:Quebec Conservatives see rise in support among voters, poll suggests

With the spectre of a Quebec independence referendum off the table, the Liberal party is attempting to redefine itself, but its struggling to appeal to French-speaking voters without losing support among anglophones and immigrants.

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Theres been a change in Quebecs political landscape, Valerie-Anne Maheo, a political science professor at Universit Laval, said in a recent interview.

Weve seen a shift from partisan politics that were organized around sovereigntism and federalism, toward more so-called normal politics, on a left-right axis, where we see parties competing on social and economic policies.

The shift has been difficult for the federalist Liberals and the sovereigntist Parti Qubcois the two parties that dominated provincial politics for more than 40 years because the issue of Quebecs place in Canada was such a key part of their identities, Maheo said.

While the Liberals were traditionally seen as the party of the economy, the centre-right Coalition Avenir Qubec, which took power for the first time in 2018, now occupies that position in the minds of many Quebecers, she said.

READ MORE: Former Montreal mayoral candidate Balarama Holness forms new provincial party

Premier Franois Legault, a self-described nationalist leader who campaigned for a strong Quebec within Canada, remains atop the polls. A Leger poll released the same day Anglade was in Trois-Rivires put Legaults party at 44 per cent support. The Liberals, meanwhile, polled at 17 per cent, down one percentage point from Legers March survey and down around eight points from the 2018 election, when they elected 31 members in Quebecs 125-seat legislature.

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While the party remains in second place across the province, the Leger poll put them fourth in the Quebec City region and tied for third outside Quebecs two largest cities.

Philippe J. Fournier, creator of poll-aggregating website QC125, said the Liberals came second in many ridings across the province in 2018, but he said thats unlikely to happen in the October general election.

They do have a base of Liberal voters pretty much everywhere in the province, but in the polls that we have the local polls in SaguenayLac-St-Jean, Abitibi and the Eastern Townships we see that has completely evaporated, he said in a recent interview.

Among Quebecs francophone majority, the Liberals were tied for fourth at 11 per cent, according to Leger, behind left-wing party Qubec solidaire and the Conservative Party of Quebec, which has never elected a member to the legislature.

The Liberal brand, Anglade said in a recent interview, is all about valuing every single person. Its about the rights of every single individual ? It doesnt matter what language you speak; it doesnt matter which region theyre from.

Some Liberals, however, would like to see the party occupy some of the nationalist territory claimed by the CAQ, in order to win votes outside multiculturalMontreal.

Benoit Pelletier, a member of the Quebec legislature from 1998 to 2008 and a cabinet minister in the Liberal government of ex-premier Jean Charest, says the party is neglecting identity issues and needs to redefine its relationship with Quebecers particularly the francophone majority.

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Anglades Liberals, he said in a recent interview, should advocate more strongly for the protection and promotion of Quebecs language and culture. One example of the party being too soft on identity questions, he said, is its unclear stance on a bill to reform the provinces strict language laws.

That kind of ambiguity, that kind of ambivalence, is something that is negative and it plays against the party itself, Pelletier said.

The Liberals recently introduced an amendment to Bill 96 that would force anglophones in English junior colleges to take three core courses in French only to ask for it to be withdrawn following outcry from colleges and the partys English-speaking base.

That episode reflected the tension inherent in the Liberals identity struggles: it showed the difficulty they are having trying to widen their appeal to francophones without alienating their anglophone and immigrant base.

Meanwhile, there are signs of unrest in the provinces English-speaking community.

On Wednesday, failedMontreal mayoral candidate Balarama Holness said he is launching a new party to advocate for ethnic and linguistic minorities in the province a direct assault on the Liberals Montreal-area strongholds. Another group has stated they were considering launching a party that would advocate for the provinces anglophones.

Its unlikely those new parties will do well, Fournier said, but they could help the CAQ beat the Liberals in some close ridings.

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Anglade said shes not worried about new parties. The problem, she said, isnt her partys message its that people havent heard it.

Polls are polls, she said. Theyre giving you a picture of today, but we havent been able to communicate all those ideas; we havent been able to be as present as we want to be, and thats why Im excited about the (election) campaign.

2022 The Canadian Press

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With sovereignty off the table, Quebec Liberals struggling to connect with voters - Global News