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ERBIL, IRAQThe horrific video released this weekend by Islamic State (ISIS) captured more attention than the surprise visit to Iraq on Saturday by the United States top military commander, but both events masked another trend: ISIS is suffering setbacks, with Iraqi forces reclaiming some territory lost this summer.

More than three months after ISIS extremists threatened to sweep into this capital of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), a combination of U.S. and coalition airstrikes and some ground action has won back some territory claimed by ISIS, including Baiji, a strategic town with a major oil refinery.

In parts of northern Iraq, particularly within the disputed territories, Kurdish pesh merga forces have consolidated their positions and started to roll back ISIS.

But numerous discussions this past week with KRG leaders and top figures in the Sunni Arab community driven out of Mosul indicate that the campaign against ISIS in northern Iraq will have many challenges, including:

* ISISs ability to adapt. KRG security officials told me that ISIS has amended its tactics in reaction to the airstrikes: Its fighters hide more in the population; they use taxis and no longer travel in large convoys. ISIS tends to undertake offensive operations on cloudy days, when it assumes drone monitoring is impaired and the coalition is less capable of striking.

* Ongoing tensions between Arabs and Kurds. After bouncing back from initial losses this summer, Kurdish forces have consolidated control and advanced in areas of disputed territories, including Kirkuk, a major city that the Iraqi government and KRG have sparred over for years. Several Kurdish leaders told me that the KRG is unlikely to relinquish control now that it has seized it. The back-and-forth battles in places such as Zumar, as NPRs Leila Fadel reported this weekend, are likely to rile ethnic tensions between Arab and Kurdish communities.

* Widespread perceptions that Iran is calling the shots. Despite increased U.S. engagement and support from a regional and international coalition, many Kurdish government leaders see Iran as the main driver of events inside Iraq. Kurds allege that Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar Al-Abadi gave $1 billion to fund Shiite militias, groups viewed as having close ties to Iran, and contrast it with the $500 million deal struck last week between the Kurdish government and the central government in Baghdad. Qassem Suleimani, head of the Qods Force in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Council, is seen as a major power broker in this new Iraqi government.

* Lack of clear leaders as effective partners among Iraqi Sunnis. No one seemed to have a clear idea about who might galvanize and organize Sunnis in northern Iraq, including some of the major Sunni leaders. Some Sunni leaders appear to be waiting for the United States to ask them to mobilize forces. The former police chief of Mosul has set up a camp with a few thousand individuals for training, but some other Sunni leaders dismissed this effort as not credible. As it has been in the past, the divided Sunni leadership will remain a major obstacle.

These challenges represent potential stumbling blocks in any campaign to retake the northern city of Mosul, captured by ISIS in June.

Going forward, the U.S. and its partners in Iraq and the region should advance a more comprehensive strategy that takes into account these political dynamics. If we should have learned anything from more than a decade in Iraq, its that the countrys political dynamics directly affect its security situation.

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Good News From Iraq: ISIS Setbacks

In mid-September, as the U.S. military prepared to launch cruise missiles against Islamic State militants in Syria for the first time, CIA analysts lobbied to expand the target list to include eight possible locations for leaders of a band of battle-hardened Al Qaeda operatives moving between towns west of Aleppo.

The previously obscure Khorasan Group, believed to be led by a 33-year-old Kuwaiti named Muhsin Fadhli, was getting closer to being able to execute a terrorist attack on a passenger jet by concealing explosives in clothing or cellphones, the analysts feared. Fadhli reportedly moved to Syria last year to recruit European militants to launch terrorist strikes in the West.

Intelligence officials in Washington also worried that the group's leaders would stop using phones and other traceable devices once the bombing began. If they didn't hit the tight-knit cell and Fadhli in particular in the initial wave of airstrikes, the CIA analysts argued, they didn't know when they'd get another chance.

The CIA prevailed, and the analysts believed Fadhli was visiting one of the compounds in northwestern Syria that was pulverized in the opening salvo of 47 Tomahawks on Sept. 23. Early communications intercepts gave the CIA hope he had been killed.

But nearly two months later, U.S. spy agencies have not been able to confirm Fadhli's death, according to two U.S. officials briefed on the operation. The intelligence gap reflects far broader problems for the expanding U.S.-led air war against the heavily armed Islamic State fighters and others considered terrorists who have captured large parts of Syria and Iraq.

"It's a black hole," one U.S. official said, speaking on condition of anonymity in discussing intelligence, on the challenge of tracking terrorists and assessing casualties in a war zone that is in effect off-limits to U.S. personnel.

U.S. counter-terrorism officials have identified about a dozen Americans fighting with militants in Syria or Iraq, for example, including some who have joined Islamic State. But U.S. intelligence analysts have struggled to develop a complete picture of their movements or what roles they play in the militant groups.

U.S. intelligence agencies have poured resources into the war since the spring, and the CIA has set up a training camp in Jordan for Syrian fighters. They also rely on information gathered from U.S.-backed rebel groups, including the Free Syrian Army.

The White House now is considering expanding the CIA's role in arming and training fighters deemed friendly, the Washington Post reported Saturday. The clandestine operation now vets and trains about 400 fighters a month, but the CIA-backed factions have struggled to take and hold territory. In one recent battle, they fled positions in a battle with Al Nusra Front, abandoning their weapons to the group, which is Al Qaeda's affiliate in Syria.

So far, U.S. aircraft have launched at least three raids on targets associated with the Khorasan Group. U.S. officials say the network operates in coordination with Al Nusra Front and poses a direct terrorist threat to the United States and its allies, although some counter-terrorism experts in the region question that analysis.

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CIA intelligence gap hinders counter-terrorism efforts in Syria, Iraq

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