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Mosul is back in the Iraqi governments hands and the war against Isis seems to finally be approaching its end. This is the good news. But one of the by-products of the campaign is that Irans reach now extends even deeper throughout Iraq and seems unlikely to go away any time soon.

A crucial fighting force in the battle for Mosul and other areas liberated from Isis was provided by paramilitary groups that receive supplies and support from Iran, and cross the Iran-Iraq border at will. These weresanctioned by the Iraqi governmentin November 2016 and made part of the Popular Mobilisation Forces, a coalition of paramilitary groups, some of which have multiple loyalties.

Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, a paramilitary commander who is considered one of Irans closest Iraqi allies, declared on 4 July that the Popular Mobilisation Forces will not go away, even if the government orders them to dissolve. Muhandiss statement essentially amounted to Iran saying that it plans to protect its interests in Iraq for years to come. These units, and the political forces that are associated to them, intend to prevent Iraq from establishing its own independent security policy, which could limit Irans ability to support its allies in Syria and elsewhere.

Mosul after the war: 'Utter and total devastation'

But many Iraqis are not happy to see Iran working in their country through local armed groups. This is not just a sectarian issue, either. Many Shias want to see Irans influence limited. In addition to historical animosities and theological differences with Iran, most Iraqis Sunni and Shia alike are exhausted by decades of conflict, and worry that Irans meddling will promote confrontation.

Ahead of next years general election, a large majority of Iraqs political forces are seeking to reinforce their independence from Iran. Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, who can take credit for the recent victories against Isis, has long had strained relations with Iran. Now he has become a critic of lawless behaviour in some elements of the security forces, including Iranian-backed groups. His governments position has been to strengthen state institutions and to reinforce the chain of command.

Meanwhile, Ammar al-Hakim, one of Iraqs leading politicians and the scion of one of the countrys most prominent Shia families, announced in late July that he would leave the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, a political party that his family founded in Tehran with Iranian assistance in the 1980s. He has also formed his own party, from which he continues to establish his independence from Iran.

The Sadrist movement, which represents millions of poor Shia Muslims in Baghdad and throughout southern Iraq, has also openly aligned itself in the anti-Iranian camp. The grass-roots movements leader, Moktada al-Sadr, paid a visit this summer to Saudi Arabia, Irans biggest regional rival. He also visited the United Arab Emirates, another Sunni state that opposes Iran. These trips were intended to help develop bilateral relations and, thus, Iraqs independence from Iran.

The only major political coalition to have formally adopted a pro-Iranian approach is led by former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Since leaving office in 2014, Maliki has been tainted by the armed forces humiliating defeat by Isis, for whichhe has rightly been blamed, and which has affected his popularity. He has since sought to reinvent himself as the patron saint of a pro-Iranian militant Iraq that is in confrontation with an ever-growing list of conspirators, including Saudi Arabia, Israel, the Kurds and the United States, among others.

With nearly all of Iraqs political forces lined up against Iran in 2018, it looks likely that the pro-Iranians will be trounced at the ballot. And yet it looks just as likely that this will have little effect on Irans influence in Iraq.

In Iraqs electoral system, its very difficult for any one alliance to take much more than 20 per cent of the vote. This means the various alliances must engage in horse trading and coalition building to form a government. As parties try to secure lucrative ministries, they will lose sight of the goals that they campaigned on like Iraqi independence. Like every government formed since the invasion in 2003, the next one will be made up of parties pulling the country in different directions. It is a recipe for inaction and Iran will prey on this.

Neither the United States nor Saudi Arabia nor any other country will be able to have a decisive influence. Outside countries have consistently failed to positively influence Iraqi politics. If these parties really want to prevent Iranian influence, they should provide assistance to security units, like thecounter-terrorism service, which has been by far the most effective force against the Islamic State. The continued success of professional security services, rather than Iran-backed paramilitary groups, will allow for Iraq to guarantee its own security.

Against this backdrop, there remains one wild card that could present a real challenge to Iranian domination: intervention by Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, Iraqs Shia spiritual leader.

In 2014,Ayatollah Sistani issued a fatwathat called for Iraqis to defend the country against the Islamic State. In response, tens of thousands of Shias joined the army and other groups, including pro-Iranian paramilitary forces. The fatwas unintended effect was to give these groups some form of religious legitimacy. Many commentators have speculated that Ayatollah Sistani may now be on the cusp of rescinding his fatwa, which could, in turn, force the Popular Mobilisation Forces to dissolve.

For now, that seems unlikely. The Popular Mobilisation Forces enjoy broad legitimacy for their contribution to the war effort, and many Iraqis prefer that they be maintained as part of the official security forces. Even Abadi hasopposedany such dissolution for many of these same reasons.

But a new fatwa from Ayatollah Sistani, following the total liberation of Iraqi territories from Isis, could redefine the obligations of those Iraqis who volunteered in 2014 as being to support Iraqs army and police which prohibits Iraqis from engaging in any actions that would undermine Iraqs national sovereignty. Abadi has already insisted that the Popular Mobilisation Forces areprohibitedfrom acting outside of Iraq. If the religious establishment supported the prime minister in this, it could nudge Iraq toward greater independence from Iran.

Since 2003, Ayatollah Sistani and the religious establishment have largely failed to control the worst tendencies in Iraqi politics. Now the stakes are so high that there is reason to hope for more decisive action. Iraqs future is in their hands. The margin for error is worryingly small.

Zaid al-Ali was a legal adviser to the United Nations in Iraq from 2005 to 2010, and is the author of The struggle for Iraqs future: how corruption, incompetence and sectarianism have undermined democracy.

This piece originally appeared on the New York Times.

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Can anyone stop Iran from taking over Iraq? - The Independent

Photo of Mosul in February 2017 by Arshed Baghdadi

Videographer Alessandro Pavone has been reporting in Iraq for the past three years since the Islamic State group took control of the Northern city of Mosul in the summer of 2014. Herecounts some of the key moments on the front lines.

I was on assignment in Afghanistan when Mosul fell to the Islamic State group in the summer of 2014. I had almost no access to Internet during the day and I wasnt really following the news. Out of the blue, my editor called: Pack your gear, we need you in Erbil tomorrow. I had never been to Iraq before, and I had no idea what I was getting into.

Photo of Iraqs Kalak refugee camp in June 2014 by Alessandro Pavone

Photo of Iraqs Kalak refugee camp in June 2014 by Alessandro Pavone/World Food Program

My first encounter with the frontline happened near a camp for displaced people in Kalak, right at the checkpoint with the autonomous Kurdish province. After few kilometers is the so-called caliphate Islamic State territory. Some came on foot, others by car. I remember hundreds of people crossing the desert lands of the Nineveh planes carrying nothing but the clothes they were wearing and the few things they could grab from their homes.

Every single building inside the old city has been destroyed. We have to move forward inside tunnels made by ISIS.

From the summer of 2014 until August 2017 I have been frequently traveling to KRG, the semi-autonomous Kurdish region in Northern Iraq, to film the perils and struggles of Iraqi families trying to survive after escaping death. About 500,000 people have fled their homes since the battle started. Most of them have no family to shelter them.

Photo of Iraqs Kalak refugee camp in June 2014 by Alessandro Pavone/World Food Program

Kalak is one of the biggest makeshift camps I have visited. The setup is always the same: clothes hanging outside the tents, families of 10, sometimes 15people, sleeping or just lying on the bare floor. Its simply too hot to do much else. At midday, temperatures reach 120 degreesFahrenheit. Sometimes it is so hot that even my video equipment refuses to work, and I can barely operate my camera because the metal parts are burning.

Photo of Bashiqa, Iraq, in November 2016 by Alessandro Pavone

After delays and delays, the offensive for Mosul finally began in spring 2016. Hundreds of international TV crews rushed to Erbil to film Kurdish and Iraqi forces advancing toward Mosul. The battle quickly becomes a TV set: reckless Kurdish camera teams driving a mobile studio track in between tanks, hipster correspondents armed with selfie-sticks going live on Instagram and Snapchat from the frontline, drones flying all over, Iraqi soldiers taking selfies with exotic western TV correspondents. At some point, bullets were passing over our heads on the top of this roof near the Kurdish town of Bashiqa, and we started to film each other ducking forcover.

READ MORE: Long-awaited battle to take back Mosul from ISIS will be toughest yet

The battle is brutal. ISIS snipers hidden on every corner inside Mosul target any moving human beings: soldiers, civilians and journalists. You try to quickly take cover, and you might step on one of the thousands of land mines the soldiers of the caliphate have placed all over the city.

You never know what to expect from day to day when reporting in Iraq. Photo by Matt Cetti-Roberts

Special correspondent Jane Ferguson and I wereembedded with the Iraqi armies on a number of operations. Due to our limited budget, we couldnt afford a field producer, and we had to roll with what we could find every day. After waiting and waiting to join a military operation, I was always scared when the moment came, and the Army officers would yell,Yalla, yalla! (Go, Go!) Get inside the armored vehicle, we are going inside Mosul. It was like Russian roulette, you never knew what you would get. And I will never forget those moments when the operations were over and we were finally back to the military bases safe and sound. The stress was gone, just waiting for the next day.

Photo of Mosuls old city in July 2017 by Alessandro Pavone

Photo of Mosul in July 2017 by Marcia Biggs

The last days of the battl e for the old city were probably the toughest ones. Temperatures reached 110 degrees Fahrenheit, the streets were too narrow, and armored vehicles couldnt be of much use anymore. The fight turned into urban warfare, and the Iraqi army started to escort TV crews to the frontline on foot patrols. Every single building inside the old city has been destroyed. We have to move forward inside tunnels made by ISIS. Its a somber and sinister scenario: the smell of dead bodies left behind the front lines is unbearable. The only sign of life left is desperate families, reduced to skeletons due to starvation, trying to leave the old city.

Photo of Mosul in February 2017 by Alessandro Pavone

After almost nine months, the war is over, and ISIS has been defeated. Life in Mosul is starting to go back to normal. Shops and markets are open again, young students are going back to schools and universities or what is left of them after heavy bombardments almost destroyed every building inside the city. The new threat now is to be hugged by local residents eagerto take selfies with you. Only few weeks ago, they could risk their lives just for having a phone in their hands. But deep down I believe this is only the beginning of a new bloody chapter of this battle.

The violence and brutality my colleagues and I had the privilege of witnessing will never disappear from our minds. I have been reporting from other conflict countries, but I have never seen anything like this before. Too many people died for no reason, too many families were torn apart. And now some Iraqis feel it is time for revenge. I know I will be back again and again.

Special correspondent Marcia Biggs and videographer Alessandro Pavone report on the backlashfrom recapturing Mosul.

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Analysis: Here's what I learned from 3 years reporting in Iraq - PBS NewsHour

Iraq has asked the United Nations to assist it with gathering evidence of possible "crimes against humanity" committed by the Islamic State (IS) extremist group.

In a letter released on August 16, Iraqi Foreign Minister Ibrahim al-Jafaari said government forces that have recently liberated Mosul from IS control had found evidence of crimes including mass killings, sexual slavery, and destruction of archeological treasures.

He said Britain was assisting in drafting a resolution for consideration by the UN Security Council to establish the international investigation.

Britain's deputy UN ambassador, Jonathan Allen, confirmed the effort, and said their goal was to "leave no place for Daesh to hide," using an Arabic acronym for IS.

Russia's UN Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia said Moscow will support the resolution.

British human rights lawyer Amal Clooney, who has advocated for Iraq's Yazidi religious minority, which suffered mass killings as well as sexual enslavement by IS, praised the move.

"Yazidis and other ISIS victims want justice in a court of law and they deserve nothing less," she said.

"I hope that the Iraqi government's letter will mark the beginning of the end of impunity for genocide and other crimes that ISIS is committing in Iraq and around the world."

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Iraq Asks UN To Help Investigate IS 'Crimes Against Humanity' - RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty

In this Nov. 13, 2016, file photo, an Iraqi Christian soldier from the Nineveh Plain Protection Unit fixes the bell of the St. Addai church, which was damaged by Islamic State fighters during their occupation of Keramlis village.(Photo: Hussein Malla, AP)

Stephen Rasche says the next six weeks will be critical for saving some of the worlds oldest Christian communities from extinction.

Rasche is coordinating atask force trying to return tens of thousands of Christian families to the ancient Iraqi towns from which they were driven by ISIS three years ago.

U.S. and Iraqi forces drove ISIS out of the region last fall, but the string of historic Christian towns in the northern tip of Iraq that have now been liberated stand in varying states of destruction. The towns now face a critical need over these next 60 days at the latest really at the end of September to get in enough work and enough of a core group of the population back so that it can demonstrate a viability for the recovery of the town, said Rasche, who works forthe Catholic Archdiocese of Irbil and is nowchief coordinator of a newly formed Nineveh Reconstruction Committee, a coalition of the major Christian denominations in the region.

Rasche and others involved in the reconstruction say time is of the essence for rescuing a community that was among the first converted to Christianity by the Apostles in the decades after the death of Jesus Christ.

Christianity in Iraq is on the brink of extinction. They have gone from 1.5 million people to somewhere south of 200,000, said Andrew Walther, the U.S-based vice president of communications for the Knights of Columbus, which recently announced a $2 million infusion to rebuild the town of Karemles.With the new school year coming and these towns having now been liberated (from ISIS), people'sattitude is well, we are either going to return home now or we are going to leave forever.

The effort is based on rebuilding one town at a time, providing design assistance, building supplies and other support to help residents repair their war-damaged homes enough to return from their exile in Kurdistan. And it is remarkably cheap. For many residents, a few thousand dollars will be enough to restore their home to livability and allow them to return though ultimately government support will be needed for infrastructure like water an power systems and to guarantee long-term security for the communities.

The recipients of the aid are overwhelmingly but not exclusively Christian. The aid project is also servinga smattering of other persecuted religious minorities, including Yezidis and Shabak Muslims.

Iraqi Christians attend a mass at the Church of the Immaculate Conception on July 24, 2017, in the predominantly Christian Iraqi town of Qaraqosh. Cardinal Philippe Barbarin, who said he was split between "sadness" and "hope," attended a mass for the "renaissance" in Qaraqosh, which housed one of the largest Christian communities in Iraq before its capture by the Islamic State group.(Photo: Safin Hamed, AFP/Getty Images)

The first $2 million tranche of funding for the project came from the Hungarian government this spring. Thatdownpayment has alreadyreturned about 1,000 Christian families to the town of Teleskov, the northern-most boundary of the August 2014 ISIS offensive that chased more than 100,000 Christians out of the Nineveh Plain.

The evangelical relief group Samaritans Purse its focusing its effort in the town of Qaraqosh, where it hopes to help rebuild about 600 homes. The life of Christians who fled who are now in Irbil, who left their homes, I would say life is not great for them, said Aaron Ashoff, the groups regional director for Europe and the Middle East. What is the future for Christians who would return to the historic Christian communities in Ninevah, we dont know. But if they want to return to these communities, we are going to help them.

But these efforts are racing against time. The Iraqi school year begins in October, and Rasche says families currently living as refugees in Kurdistan are unlikely to return to the area once the school year has begun, uprooting their children again.

And after three years away, if the families do not return this year, they may simply give up hope of ever returning to Iraq, said Joop Koopman, spokesman for Aid to the Church in Need, a worldwide Catholic organization that is another major donor to the reconstruction effort.

If a significant number of Christians dont return soon, it may dash the hopes of any renaissance for the Nineveh plains," Koopman said.

Most of the Christian refugees have been living in Irbil, where the local Catholic diocese has provided millions of dollars of rental and food assistance.

The churchs charity has been a lifeline for the Christian community, but it also been a barrier to government support.

It essentially ended up that the Christians, having been supported in some fashion by global Christians, were judged to be in a category where they didnt need any more help from the U.N. and the State Department, Rasche said this week in an interview from Teleskov.

We sat in meetings where people told us if we laid off on the amount of aid that we were providing so that their standards dropped then the U.N. would be happy to step in.

Walther and others who have advocated on behalf of the Iraqi Christians say the Obama administration was reluctant to address their plight.

The archdiocese of Irbil has received no direct government funding from the U.S. or U.N., Walther said. He blamed the Obama administrations mindset that people get aid on basis of immediate need only, and the rationale is that you dont want to discriminate against any individual. While that principle makes some sense, Walther said, it does not take into account the prospect that an entire community might be extinguished.

Iraqi Christians attend a Holy Mother Mary mass at the church of Mart Shmoni in Arbil, the capital of the autonomous Kurdish region of northern Iraq, on May 31, 2017.(Photo: Safin Hamed, AFP/Getty Images)

Julian Dobbs, an Anglican bishop who heads a relief group called Barnabus Aid, said he has already seen a dramatic shift in tone from the Trump administration, indicating that persecuted Christians will see much more support.

Under the previous administration, I was told personally by the State Department that they had absolutely no determination to assist Christian minorities in Northewestern Iraq, Dobbs said. By contrast, the Trump administration has repeatedly referred to Iraqi Christians as victims of genocide who are entitled to special protection.

ISIS is clearly responsible for genocide against Yezidis, Christians, and Shia Muslims in areas it controls or has controlled, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said Tuesday. The protection of these groups and others subject to violent extremism is a human rights priority for the Trump administration.

The U.S. House also passed a bill in June that would require the State Department to address the needs of Iraqi and Syrian religious minorities targeted by ISIS, and to allow federal relief dollarsto flow through church-based charities.We are our brothers and sisters keeper," said the bill's lead sponsor, Rep. Chris Smith, R-N.J., in an interview."These people a large number have been slaughtered, the women have been raped, the men beaten, their churches destroyed and we have not helped them.

His Democratic co-sponsor, Rep. Anna Eshoo of California, said there is a bedrock American principle of separating church and state, which makes it hard for the U.S. government to provideaid targeted to a specificfaith group. "But freedom of religion is also a great American value and a great export of ours," she said, "and theywere specifically targeted because they are Christians and Yezidis."

State Department spokesperson Pooja Jhunjhunwala said that while U.S. humanitarian aid is based solely on need, regardless of ethnic or religious affiliation, the department has provided more than a billion dollars in aid to Iraqis, which includes aidto members of minority communities.

In addition, separate from U.S. humanitarian and stabilization assistance, since 2008, the Department and USAID have provided more than $100 million in assistance specifically for Iraqs religious and ethnic minority communities, Jhunjhunwala said. We have also led international initiatives to highlight the plight of these minority groups.

Walther of the Knights of Columbus said helping the Iraqi Christians and other religious minorities is not just a humanitarianmandate "it is also important in order to ensure that ISIS' program of genocide and religious cleansing is not successful, even after they are defeated militarily."

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Christians in Iraq are 'on the brink of extinction.' Here's what faith groups are doing to fix that - USA TODAY

Thousands of Iraqis have fled an Islamic State-held town west of Mosul as Iraqi and coalition warplanes step up strikes ahead of a ground offensive to drive out the militants.

Tal Afar and the surrounding area is one of the last pockets of IS-held territory in Iraq after victory was declared in July in Mosul, the country's second-largest city. The town, about 93 miles east of the Syrian border, sits along a major road that was once a key IS supply route.

On Monday, hundreds of exhausted civilians were brought by Iraqi army trucks from the front line to a humanitarian collection point just west of Mosul. Many described a harrowing journey of a day or more from Tal Afar, with no food or water.

Jassem Aziz Tabo, an elderly man who arrived with his 12-member family, said he had left Tal Afar months ago and gone to a village on the outskirts to escape hunger, airstrikes and violence from the militants.

"Those who tried to escape were captured and shot in the head. They killed my son," he said. "He tried to escape, he was caught and they killed him."

He said severe shortages have caused the price of food to skyrocket in Tal Afar, which has been besieged by Iraqi forces for months, with 2.2 pounds of sugar selling for $50.

"There was nothing. We were eating pieces of bread with water," he said.

Alia Imad, a mother of three whose family paid $300 to a smuggler to lead them to safety, said there is no drinking water left in the town. "Most people drink water that's not clean. The majority are surviving on that and a bit of bread," she said.

The group she was with had come under fire during their escape from the militants, she said. A woman was killed, and they had to bury her by the road.

Lise Grande, the U.N. humanitarian coordinator, said conditions in Tal Afar are "very tough."

"Thousands of people are leaving, seeking safety and assistance. Families escaping northeast are trekking 10 and up to 20 hours to reach mustering points. They are exhausted and many are dehydrated when they finally arrive," she said.

Lt. Gen. Anwar Hama, of the Iraqi air force, told The Associated Press that airstrikes this week have targeted IS headquarters, tunnels and weapons' stores.

But Iraqi forces, closely backed by the U.S.-led coalition, are not expected to push into the town for another few weeks, according to an Iraqi officer overseeing the operation. He spoke on condition of anonymity in line with regulations.

Iraqi army, federal police and special forces units are expected to participate in the operation, as well as state-sanctioned mostly Shiite militias known as the Popular Mobilization Forces.

The militiamen largely stayed out of the operation to retake Mosul, a mostly Sunni city, but have vowed to play a bigger role in Tal Afar, which was mostly Shiite before it fell to IS, a Sunni extremist group. The militias captured Tal Afar's airport, on the outskirts of the town, last year.

Their participation in the coming offensive could heighten sectarian and regional tensions. Tal Afar was once home to Shiite and Sunni Arabs, as well as a sizable ethnic Turkmen community with close ties to neighboring Turkey. Turkish officials have expressed concern that once territory is liberated from IS, Iraqi Kurdish or Shiite forces may push out Sunni Arabs or ethnic Turkmen.

Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Bekir Bozdag said his country would be watching the operation closely.

"Tal Afar is a town where almost the entire population is Turkmen. We have always considered it a priority for the region to be cleared from (IS) and for it to be returned to its owners," Bozdag said after a Cabinet meeting Tuesday.

"Turkey has always said that the region's demographic and religious makeup must be taken into consideration," Bozdag said. The state-backed militias "should not enter the region."

On Monday, the Iraqi army began moving an armored brigade to the front line south of Tal Afar, while an infantry division was deployed about 19 miles to the town's east.

Brig. Gen. Abdul Hussein al-Khazali, deputy commander of the army's 15th division, said his forces were going to inch closer to Tal Afar village by village before they are ready to launch the final attack, partly to ensure they can protect fleeing civilians.

The United Nations says some 49,000 people have fled the Tal Afar district since April, compounding a humanitarian crisis that has lingered despite the cessation of major fighting inside Mosul. It says nearly a million people were displaced by the Mosul campaign.

Associated Press writer Suzan Fraser in Ankara, Turkey, contributed to this report.

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Thousands flee as Iraq steps up airstrikes on Islamic State-held town - Chicago Tribune