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Over the New Year holiday,pro-Iran militiamensurrounded the United States embassy in Baghdad. Ultimately, and thankfully, the American personnel remained unscathed, but it was a further reminder of the political unrest that continues to dominate that country. It also reminds us of the potential disruption that more unrest in Iraq could impact global oil markets.

TOPSHOT - A handout picture received from the US embassy in Iraq on December 31, 2019, shows a US ... [+] army apache helicopter dropping flares over Baghdad's high-security Green Zone on December 31, 2019, after Iraqi supporters of pro-Iran factions breached the outer wall of the US embassy over weekend air strikes that killed pro-Iran fighters in western Iraq. - The US State Department said that embassy personnel are safe and there are no plans to evacuate, after Iraqi supporters of pro-Iran factions attacked the compound. It is the first time in years that protesters have been able to reach the building, sheltered behind a series of checkpoints in the high-security Green Zone. (Photo by - / US EMBASSY IN IRAQ / AFP) (Photo by -/US EMBASSY IN IRAQ/AFP via Getty Images)

In recent months, Iraq has experienced large-scale protests by citizens who oppose Iranian interference in their country. The country also saw themurderofhundredsof theseprotestors. Earlier this week, the U.S.struck targetsin Iraq and Syria that were linked to Iran-backed militias.

This political unrest brings with it a potential for a real disruption to the global energy markets. In 2018, Iraq produced more oil than all but four other countries. Though reliable and updated numbers are not yet available, its oil production increase in 2019 and it is probably now the fourth largest oil producer in the world. This past summer, it produced4.88million barrels per day. But just this past week, on December 28 and 29, protestors were able toshut downan oil field that produces 90,000 barrels per day.

Iraqi oil has been less than reliable on the global market forsome time. Until recently, ISIS controlled some of the countrys oil. In the last 17 years there were also disruptions due to the military engagements caused by the U.S. invasion, conflicts between the Iraqi government and the Kurdish authorities and efforts to rebuild the countrys oil infrastructure after Saddam Husseins regime and then war. In the 1990s, international sanctions and the United Nations Oil For Food program limited the sale of Iraqi oil. In the 1980s, Iraq engaged in an eight-year war with Iran that disrupted oil production and exports.

However, lately Iraq has been producing and exporting record amounts. It typicallyoverproducesits OPEC quota. If the situation in Iraq deteriorates further in 2020, we could see real disruptions to the oil market that last more than just a couple of days, which could scare the market.

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Unrest In Iraq Reminds Us Of Geopolitical Risks To Oil - Forbes

Iraqs Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) have become involved in an open confrontation with the Iraqi protesters who have been demonstrating since Oct. 1 and calling for major reforms. Over the last three months, the PMU have been accused of participating in a crackdown on protests.

On Jan. 5, Dhi Qar provincein southern Iraqwitnessed the killing of two protesters who were among others protesting a symbolic funeral procession held by a group of armed men forthe Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force Cmdr.Qasem Soleimani, who was assassinated at Baghdad International Airport Jan. 3.

When we refused the gunmen [entrance to]the protest square, they threatened to open fire at us. They fired live bullets at us in the skirmish with the protesters, a protester in Dhi Qar told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisal. In response to the shooting, as shown in video footage, the protesters burned the PMU headquarters in the province.

Dhi Qar incurred the most deathsin the war between the Islamic State and the PMU and Iraqi security forces. Also, the province had the biggest share of victims in the Camp Speicher massacre in June 2014, when IS killed 1,700 people.

On the same day of the armed attack against the protesters during the symbolic funeral for Soleimani, PMU supporters burned down protesters' tentsin Basra province, in the south, for the same reasons.

A YouTube account that seems to belong to a PMU member or a supporter havinga photo of Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandisa top PMU leader who was killed in the same drone strike as Soleimanishared a video of the burning tents in Basra, saying it was punishment for protesters who celebrated the death of the two men.

The protesters objected to the funeral procession of Soleimani and Muhandis, which prompted the Hezbollah Brigades to fire live bullets at them and burn down their tents, killing one man and wounding another, Hussam al-Khamisi, a Basra activist told Al-Monitor.

Khamisi, who has been participating in Iraq's protests since 2015, believes thePMU will further crack down on protests in the coming days.

While the PMU have been widely accused of participating in the crackdown, a PMU source denied these claims in an interview with Al-Monitor.

Telegram channels close to the PMU have been sharing information within groups, which Al-Monitor was able to check, about the possibility of Iraqi protesters burning PMU headquarters in someprovinces. This could portend some major open confrontations between the armed PMU and the protesters.

The demonstrators in Baghdads Tahrir Square said they were innocent of the attack on the US Embassy Dec. 31, which seemed to have provoked the PMU, which accused the protesters of betraying their homeland.

Liqaa Makki, a researcher atAl-Jazeera Center for Studies, told Al-Monitor, What happened in Dhi Qar and Basra is an indication that the PMU are now ready to use their arms freely and without accountability,since there is no authority to deter themexcept formeager local influence.

The protesters are being accused of treason, which for the PMU is a valid excuse to attack them. I think the PMU will also take advantage of the tense situation with the United Statesto further suppress the protests, Makki added.

The US statements on the protests in Iraq are provocative for the PMU factions that claim Washington orchestrates the ongoing demonstrations.

David Schenker, assistant secretary of Near Eastern Affairs at the US State Department, also implicated PMU leadersin the killing of Iraqi protesters.

Aqeel Abbas, an assistant professor at the American University of Sulaimaniyah, told Al-Monitor, Some PMU leaders and members believe this would be the right time to squash the protests given the critical situation in the country. The protesters should hold their breath for a little longer to overcome this phase.

There is a real danger that the most radical PMU groups would seek to dismantle the demonstrations, Abbas added.

A video showed a member of the coordination committee of the protests in Karbala provinceaccusing PMU gunmen ofharassing and killing protesters in the last two days of December,calling on demonstrators to ready their sticks and rods to repel any attacks.

It appears this is a favorable opportunity for the PMU to crush the ongoingprotests, especially with the media blackout on the demonstrations after the attempt to storm the US Embassy and the death of Soleimani and Muhandis.

In sum, the accusations of treason against Iraqs protesters since the outbreak of the demonstrations are likely to serve as a valid religious and political justification to suppress them. This is true despite the fact that some PMU leaders have previously stated the protests were justifiable and understandable.

Some radical PMU groups, however, are openly opposed to the protests, which have seen 600 protesters killed and nearly 22,000 wounded over the past three months.

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Iraq Are Iraq's PMU militias planning to put an end to protests? - Al-Monitor

When the U.S. invaded Iraq in 2003, it was taking control of the most indebted nation in the world.

Why it matters: Iraq's debt at the time was an astonishing $130 billion, and the eradication of that debt was a rare example of international unity and cooperation in the interests of a debtor country.

The big picture: Iraq had very few debts before the Iran-Iraq war of 19801988. Western countries armed Iraq during that war, and accepted IOUs for their weapons despite knowing that Iraq was already insolvent.

After the war, the UN took the extraordinary step of immunizing all of Iraq's assets from attachment by creditors. That put Iraq in an extremely strong negotiating position, and ultimately the country managed to persuade creditors to accept a reduction of 80% in the value of their debts.

Where it stands: Iraq today may be facing political turmoil, but its sovereign finances are in good shape, with a low debt-to-GDP ratio, substantial foreign reserves, and a healthy fiscal surplus.

Go deeper: U.S. to send "additional forces" after embassy in Baghdad attacked by protesters

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Tracing Iraq's transformation from the most indebted country in the world in 2003 - Axios

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) escalated his offensive Monday on fellow 2020 candidate Joe Biden, going after the former vice president for his past positions on myriad issues, including the Iraq War.

Joe Biden voted and helped lead the effort for the war in Iraq, the most dangerous foreign policy blunder in the modern history of this country, Sanders told CNNs Anderson Cooper.

The remarks by Sanders, who prides himself on being among the few lawmakers who voted against invading Iraq, came just days after Biden falsely suggested again to voters that he opposed the war when it began in 2003.

The president then went ahead with Shock and Awe, and right after that and from the very moment he did that, right after that I opposed what he was doing and spoke to him, Biden told voters in Iowa on Saturday, referring to former President George W. Bush, according to CNN.

Biden has attempted several times to recharacterize his vote on Iraq in an effort to appeal to Democratic voters skeptical of his history of foreign policy decisions. While Monday was not the first time Sanders has attacked Biden for his stance on the now 17-year war on terrorism, the senator took it a notch higher by going after his rivals stances on several additional issues.

Joe Biden voted for the disastrous trade agreements like NAFTA and permanent normal trade relations with China, which cost us millions of jobs. You think thats going to play well in Michigan or Wisconsin or Pennsylvania? Sanders told Cooper. You know, Joe Biden has been on the floor of the Senate talking about the need to cut Social Security or Medicare or Medicaid. Joe Biden pushed a bankruptcy bill, which has caused enormous financial problems for working families.

The 2020 Democrats original positions on the Iraq War are considered especially important now that President Donald Trump is rapidly escalating tensions with Iran, a conflict that stems from the 2003 intervention in the Middle East. Many Americans fear another war after the Trump administration assassinated Irans Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani last week, a move that could further destabilize the region.

On Saturday, Sanders announced a measure he plans to introduce with Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) that would block any funding for a war with Iran that does not have congressional authorization.

All of that suffering, all of that debt, all of that huge expenditure of money for what? Sanders said at an Iowa town hall on Friday of the Iraq War. It gives me no pleasure to tell you that at this moment we face a similar crossroads fraught with danger. Once again, we must worry about unintended consequences and the impact of unilateral decision-making.

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Bernie Sanders Goes After Biden Over His Claims About Opposing The Iraq War - HuffPost

Photograph Source: Freedom Monument, Tahrir square in Downtown Baghdad, taken by Aziz1005 CC BY 4.0

Iraqis have a well-honed instinct about approaching danger which stems from their grim experience during 40 years of crisis and war. Three months ago, I asked a friend in Baghdad how she and her friends viewed the future, adding Iraq seemed to me to be more peaceful than at any time since the US and British invaded in 2003.

She replied that the general mood among people she knew was gloomy because they believed that the next war between the US and Iran might be fought out in Iraq. She said: Many of my friends are so nervous about a US-Iran war that they are using their severance pay on leaving government service to buy houses in Turkey. She was thinking of doing the same.

My Iraqi friends turned out to have been all too right in their depressing prognosis: the killing of IranianMajor General Qassem Soleimani by a US drone at Baghdad airport is an act of escalation by President Donald Trump that ensures that Iraq faces a violent future. It may not lead to a full-scale military conflict, but Iraq will be the political and military arena where the US-Iranian rivalry will be fought out. The Iranians and their Iraqi allies may or may not carry out some immediate retaliatory act against the US, but their most important counter-stroke will be to pressure the Iraqi government, parliament and security forces into pushing the US entirely out of Iraq.

Ever since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, Iran has generally come out ahead of the US in any struggle for influence within Iraq. The main reason for thishas been that the Shia community in Iraq, two-thirds of the population and politically dominant, has looked to its fellow Shia in Iran for support against its enemies. Ironically, Iranian influence and popularity had been seriously damaged because of GeneralSoleimani overseeing the brutal efforts by pro-Iranian security forces and paramilitary groups to crush Iraqi street protests, killing at least 400 protesters and injuring another 15,000.

Mounting Iraqi popular rage against Iran for its interference in Iraqs internal affairs is now likely to be counter-balanced by the even more blatant assault on Iraqs national sovereignty by the US. It is difficult to think of a grosser act of interference by a foreign state than killing a foreign general who was openly and legally in Iraq. Also killed by the drone was Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the leader of Kataib Hezbollah, the powerful pro-Iranian paramilitary group. The US may consider paramilitary commanders like him to be evil terrorists, but for many Shia Iraqis, they are the people who fought against Saddam Hussein and defended them against Isis.

I was speaking to my pessimistic friend in Baghdad in late September, in what turned out to be the last peaceable days before violence returned to Iraq. I interviewed a number of paramilitary commanders from the Hashd al-Shaabi, the Popular Mobilisation Forces, who all claimed that the US and Israel were escalating attacks on them inside the country. I wondered how much of this was paranoia.

I spoke to Abu Alaa al-Walai, the leader of Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada, a splinter group of Kataib Hezbollah, one of whose camps had been destroyed by a drone attack in August. He said that 50 tons of weapons and ammunition had been blown up, blaming the Israelis and the Americans acting in concert. Asked if his men would attack US forces in Iraq in the event of a US-Iran war, he said: Absolutely yes. Later I visited the camp, called al-Saqr, on the outskirts of Baghdad where a massive explosion had gutted sheds and littered the burnt-out compound with shattered pieces of equipment.

I saw other pro-Iranian paramilitary leaders at this time. The drone attacks had made them edgy, but I got the impression that they did not really expect a US-Iran war. Qais al-Khazali, the head of Asaib Ahl al-Haq, told me that he did not think there would be a war because Trump does not want one. As evidence of this, he pointed to the failure of Trump to retaliate after the drone attack on Saudi oil facilities earlier in September that Washington had blamed on Iran.

In fact, events developed very differently from what both I and the paramilitary commanders expected. A few days after I had spoken to them, there was a small demonstration in central Baghdad demanding jobs, public services and an end to corruption. The security forces and the pro-Iranian paramilitaries opened fire, killing and wounding many peaceful demonstrators. Though Qais al-Khazali later claimed that he and other Hashd leaders were trying to thwart a US-Israeli conspiracy, he had said nothing to me about it. It seemed likely that GeneralSoleimani wrongly suspected that the paltry demonstrations were a real threat and had ordered the pro-Iranian paramilitaries to open fire and put a plan for suppressing the demonstrations into operation.

All this could have been disastrous for Iranian influence in Iraq. Soleimani had made the classic mistake of a successful general in imagining that a whiff of grapeshot will swiftly repress any signs of popular discontent. Sometimes this works, often it does not and Iraq turned out to belong to the second category.

GeneralSoleimani died in the wake of his greatest failure and misjudgement. But the manner of his killing may convince many Shia Iraqis that the threat to Iraqi independence from the US is greater than that from Iran. The next few days will tell if the protest movement, whichhas endured the violence used against it with much bravery, will be deflated by the killings at Baghdad airport.

Wars are reputedly won by generals who make the fewest mistakes. GeneralSoleimani made a bad mistake over the last three months by turning a modest protest into something close to a mass uprising. Trump may have made an even worse mistake by killing GeneralSoleimani and making Iraq, a place where Iran has far more going for it than the US, the arena in which the rivalry between these two powers will be fought out. I can see now that my friend in Baghdad may well have been right three months ago in suggesting that retirement to Turkey might be the safest option.

Read more here:
Iraq's Worst Fears Have Come True: a Proxy War on Its Doorstep - CounterPunch