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One reason Iran can play hardball in nuclear negotiations is that they perceive Americas willingness to abandon Iraq as a sign of weakness to take advantage of, demanding maximal sanction concessions with minimal reciprocity. There is something unseemly about the worlds superpower begging a third-rate Islamist regime to accept hundreds of billions of dollars in sanctions relief in exchange for guaranteeing them a military nuclear capability with international legitimacy in less than 10 years.If you dont believe me, just read the text of the Obama administrations Iran nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

A case in point is that Iranian-controlled militias areattacking American bases in Iraq with impunity. It is evident that the Biden administration will not use military force to stop Irans nuclear program. Irans goal is to have a nuclear umbrella to make it invulnerable to attack, and to create a permanent Iranian proxy next door in Iraq bringing it one step closer to destroying Israel. Just this week, Iranian Brig. Gen. Abolfazl Shekarchi, spokesperson for Irans armed forces, said, We will not back off from the annihilation of Israel, even one millimeter. We want to destroy Zionism in the world.

Naysayers claim that any kinetic response would draw us into more conflict in Iraq, but the opposite may be closer to the truth. Iran backs down when America shows strength. When America assassinated Gen. Qassem Soleimani, one of Irans most notorious terrorists, the Iranian response was muted. This, despite the hand-wringing of those who called it reckless.

The Middle East is a notoriously challenging place to predict outcomes, and any action can backfire. American strategic interests are a game of benefit and risks. But by not responding to Iranian attacks against American bases, international shipping, or against our allies, we make the world a more dangerous place. American allies worldwide lose confidence in the U.S. as a reliable friend.

But does America need to have a presence in Iraq to advance its security interests? What does the U.S. get and what would it lose if it abandons Iraq as it did Afghanistan?

According to David Pollack of the Washington Institute, there are many reasons the U.S. should stay in Iraq: A host of crucial multilateral interests are baked into the U.S. presence, from keeping the Islamic State down to protecting vulnerable regional allies, to preventing Iran from taking Iraq's oil revenues.

In addition, ISIS is waiting in the wings in Iraq, and Iranian control of Iraq would destabilize a vital American ally in Jordan. If Jordan falls and Iraq is under Iranian control, Israel will strike in Iraq, as it does today in Syria, to prevent arms shipments. This would increase the chance of a regional war. After the Afghanistan withdrawal, the U.S. has become dependent on a strong Israel, especially for intelligence. Lastly, Iranian control of Iraq could siphon off Iraqi oil for Irans benefit, supplying needed revenue to Irans conventional and nuclear arms machines.

Iranian domination of Lebanon, Yemen and Syria will pale when compared to turning Iraq into a permanent Iranian proxy. Only conquering Saudi Arabia and taking over Islams most holy sites of Mecca and Medina would outshine a Persian satrapy of Iraqi Arabs.

Irans attempted assassination of the Iraqi prime minister this fall echoed the Iranian-directed assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri in 2005. This years assassination attempt was a clear signal to both America and Iraq that Iran lays claim to be the ultimate power in Mesopotamia, demonstrating U.S. powers impotence to the world.

The U.S. has failed the test with its non-response to this assassination attempt; the Iranian drone attack on Saudi Arabias oil fields; Irans attack on international shipping in the Persian Gulf; and the recent attack on the American base in Al-Tanf, Syria, a strategic corridor to impede Iranian precision-guided missiles entering the Levant.

Although withdrawal is cheered by Americas progressives and isolationists, this lack of action can lead to more threats against American interests. The small American presence in Iraq and Syria, numbering around 3,000 troops, has disproportionate leverage for American interests. Over the past couple of years, American casualties in Iraq and Syria have been few, allowing us to minimize the arc of Iranian expansion at a relatively small cost. In the aftermath of Afghanistan and the abandonment of the Bagram air base, these small forces are especially valuable.

But is America willing to pay the price to keep Iraq out of Iranian orbit? And are Iraqis interested in Iran controlling their lives?

According to Hussain Abdul-Hussain, a research fellow with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Iraqs top Shia cleric, Ayatollah Ali Sistani, last month called for the disbanding of all militias. This would involve the state disarming the pro-Iran Popular Mobilization Units (PMU). In turn, this would neuter Tehrans most reliable partner in Iraq, Kataeb Hezbollah, the most dangerous alternative to state power in the country.

Iraq is a mess, but it does have relatively free elections. After this years parliamentary election, when the Iranian-sponsored Fatah party lost decisively, they created chaos by claiming the election was stolen and activating their militias. The problem is that most Iraqi political parties have their own militias. That wont dissuade Iran from threatening Iraq. Irans attempted drone assassination of the Iraqi prime minister drew a muted response from U.S. and European diplomats, who care primarily about the nuclear negotiations with Iran. This could signal Iran to up the ante in both hegemony and negotiations.

Liberal internationalists in the Biden administration put diplomacy first, which can be a legitimate strategy. But they also must realize that to be perceived as more than a paper tiger, you need staying power in Iraq and a credible threat of force in the case of Iranian nuclear weapons. A few thousand non-combat U.S. troops afford disproportionate influence in Iraq, advancing American interests. They should not be withdrawn.

Eric R. Mandel is director of the Middle East Political Information Network (MEPIN). He regularly briefs members of Congress and their foreign policy aides, and is the senior security editor for the Jerusalem Report/Jerusalem Post.

Excerpt from:
How worrisome is Iranian control of Iraq for the US? | TheHill - The Hill

Riot police stand in the vicinity of Baghdad's Green Zone following the assassination attempt upon

Mustafa al-Kadhimi last month. Photo:Khalil Dawood/Xinhua via Getty Images

On the 7th of November rockets dropped from several drones crashed onto the roof of the residence of Iraqs prime minister, Mustafa al-Kadhimi. But in a country riven by nearly 20 years of sectarian conflict, the wildest part of the episode is that no one is brave enough to investigate what actually happened.

Kadhimi was not hurt in the Baghdad assassination attempt, but six of his guards were injured. Still, its clear that there is a lack of political will to investigate the powerful Iran-backed paramilitary groups that have been widely blamed for the attack. A sloppy investigation by a police force that fears the militias has so far led to no arrests or charges.

Iraqs divided and corrupt government has struggled to contain several Iran-backed militias, which continue to refuse to accept Octobers general election results. The political parties linked to the militias lost two-thirds of their parliamentary seats a significant blow to their power and influence in the country. They have since claimed, without any evidence, that the historically low turnout polls were marred by mass fraud.

While the groups have denied any involvement in the incident, they have repeatedly used the same locally made drones in similar attacks in the past few years targeting US bases in Baghdad and Erbil, which they claimed responsibility under a number of made-up names. Despite the relative calm in the Iraqi capital since the attack, the militias continue to pose a threat to a fragile government that struggles to even name the groups that tried to kill its prime minister, and tensions are mounting.

Iran-backed militias fought foreign troops periodically from the US-led invasion in 2003 until 2011, when most US troops left.

Mustafa al-Kadhimi. Photo: HUSSEIN FALEH/AFP via Getty Images

Groups such as Kataib Hezbollah and Asaib Ahl Al-Haq enjoy Iranian funding and training and are among the more extreme branches that work as part of an Iranian proxy network of armed groups across the region under the flag of an anti-Western axis of resistance.

Members of an umbrella organisation now known as the Popular Mobilisation Forces, an alliance of armed forces the Iran-backed Iraqi groups have gained enormous influence over the countrys security and institutions owing to their help dismantling the so-called ISIS caliphate. The groups were technically drafted under the Iraqi national security apparatus in the battle against the Sunni extremists and even managed to form a strong coalition inside Iraqs parliament and play a vital role in government in 2018 until the brutality they inflicted upon civilians lost them their popularity in 2021s elections.

Iranian officials moved to distance themselves from the attack on Kadhimi, rushing to condemn it, and the countrys top general and foreign military strategist, Ismail Qaani, reportedly flew to Baghdad to try and defuse the situation.

The Iraqi security forces collected evidence from the aftermath of the attack that included parts of "locally made" drones shot down by the guards, and an unexploded rocket on the roof of the building.

Qais al Khazali, the leader of Asaib Ahl Al-Haq, questioned whether the drone attack had even taken place in a televised address, saying: Targeting of the prime ministers house, if true, is serious and cannot be tolerated at all.

Khazali also criticised Kadhimi for blocking two factions from the militia groups in the investigation into the attempted assassination. We sent a message to the committee charged with the investigation. You must provide concrete evidence and real proof, not allegations, he added.

Kadhimi makes a statement following last month's attack. Photo: Iraqi Prime Ministry Press Office / Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

But the investigation committee tasked with probing the attack is not exactly making progress: it is yet to officially identify any individual or party in connection.

Last week, Qasim al-Araji, Iraqs national security adviser, held a press conference to present the evidence collected by an investigation committee. He showed footage from CCTV records showing the impact of the explosion on the house.Araji criticised the process of evidence-handling after the bomb squad detonated an unexploded projectile without collecting fingerprints from it first.

We have launched an investigation into this matter and are asking for justification on the decision to not collect fingerprints, said Araji, urging political parties to come forward and help the investigation identify the people behind the attack.

Additional security measures in the Green Zone. Photo: Haydar Karaalp/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

While Kadhimi came out right after the attack to say that We will pursue those who committed yesterdays crime; we know them well, and we will expose them, the former spy chief is in a weak position: he is only serving in a caretaker role until a new government is formed, and is seen by many as a puppet of the US, which still has 2,500 troops stationed in the country to fight ISIS in what the US says is at the invitation of the Iraqi government.

US President Joe Biden met with Kadhimi in July this year in Washington, signalling his administrations commitment to the Iraqi government. It was announced that US troops status would shift from deployment to an advisory role in Iraq by the end of 2021.

But the latest drone attack showed how far the Iran-backed militias are willing to go to push the local authorities after suffering a defeat in the latest elections. The Iraqi government inside the fortified Green Zone in Baghdad may have heard the message from the militias, but with a newly-elected parliament entering lengthy coalition government negotiations, its unlikely tensions will drop anytime soon.

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Zero Arrests and Zero Answers, a Month After Iraqs PM Survived a Drone Attack - VICE UK

Baghdad, 07 December 2021 UNDP Iraq and the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) have signed a renewed partnership agreement to monitor and support acceleration of the implementation of socio-economic infrastructure projects in Iraq. The projects are implemented by the Government of Iraq (GoI) with loan assistance from JICA with the aim of improving the economic recovery and living conditions of Iraqi communities.

Resident Representative of UNDP Iraq Zena Ali Ahmad emphasizes, This 11th renewal of JICA UNDP partnership agreement is a demonstration of confidence and strong partnership showing the solid commitment of the Government and People of Japan. UNDP and JICA will work together to support the Government of Iraq in achieving and laying the foundation for growth in key service sectors, with focus on electricity infrastructure, water and sanitation, oil, transportation, and health.

JICA Chief Representative Kei Toyama states, Since 2009, UNDP has been an important partner for JICA in Iraq. JICA and UNDP had jointly supported for the enhancement of the project management capacity of our Iraqi counterparts to overcome many challenges by close monitoring and various trainings. We look forward that our partnership will further contribute to the acceleration of the implementation of GoIs projects under our joint support in this 11th agreement.

Despite the challenges imposed by COVID-19, two major Official Development Assistance Loan projects in electricity and fertilizer production sectors were completed during the first half of 2021 with support from JICA, adding 330 Megawatts from Al-Mussayab Thermal Power Plant in Babil governorate to the national grid and an increased annual output of 300,000 tons of urea fertilizer from the rehabilitation of one production line against the previous two-lines production of 180,000 tons from the South Fertilizer Company in Khor Al-Zubair, Basra Governorate, feeding reliable supply of urea fertilizer to 50% of local market demand.

Through signing this agreement, the GoI, JICA and UNDP reaffirm their commitment to improve the state of national infrastructure, public services, and private sector development, advancing Iraq closer to the achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.

Excerpt from:
Infrastructure projects for socio-economic development in Iraq accelerated with partnership renewal between UNDP Iraq and JICA - Iraq - ReliefWeb

Issued on: 08/12/2021 - 17:33

It's a job normally reserved for men, but one group of women in Iraq has taken on the dangerous task of clearing mines in the northern region of Mosul. The area is littered with hidden explosives left behind by the Islamic State group. We take a closer look at these women risking their lives and shattering stereotypes along the way.

Meanwhile in Saudi Arabia, the Red Sea International Film Festival is running until December 15 in the port city of Jeddah. Four years ago, Saudi Arabia lifted its 35-year ban on cinemas. But critics say the glitz and glamour are a smokescreen for the kingdom's continuing crackdown on dissent.

Finally, we look at an unlikely role model for the next generation of kung fu fighters. Fadel Othman is a Syrian amputee who lost his leg in the decade-long war. But his disability hasn't stopped him from training dozens of children at his academy in western Aleppo.

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Middle East matters - The women clearing Iraq's landmines - FRANCE 24

By Osama Al-Sharif*

Of all the Iraqi religious scholars turned politicians, Shiite cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr is the most controversial, bold and charismatic. He comes from a family that has stood up to oppressive regimes on nationalistic grounds. At 47, he is still young and relatively inexperienced. Once an ally of Iran, he is now distancing himself from Tehran, but is also careful to underline his hostility to the US presence in the war-torn country.

At one point he led an armed militia, the Mahdi Army, to fight the Americans, only to break it up and form a political coalition of like-minded figures that is proud of its Shiite background, but not at the expense of the Iraqi national or Arab identity. Between the 2003 US invasion, which resulted in the dismantling of Baath Party rule, and the chaotic formation of an ethnosectarian political setup, Al-Sadr never fully embraced the new system, even when the Shiite politicians were firmly in control of the country.

Of all the major Shiite blocs and political parties, his was the only one brave enough to denounce the political quota system and the rampant corruption beleaguering the new Iraq. And he is among the few political figures to have called for the dissolution of the armed pro-Iran militias that were formed to stand up to Daesh, the radical Sunni revisionist movement that at one point was only a few kilometers from Baghdad.

The last decade, with its myriad seismic political and economic events, has ripened Al-Sadrs political vision. He remains a charismatic figure, especially among Iraqs disenfranchised Shiites, who failed to benefit from the rise of powerful leaders such as Nouri Al-Maliki and Haider Abadi.

This is perhaps why Al-Sadrs Sairoon alliance emerged as the clear winner in Octobers general election at the expense of pro-Iran blocs such as Hadi Al-Amiris Fatah coalition a political front for the pro-Iran militias. The phenomenal rejection by voters included Al-Maliki, Abadi, Ammar Al-Hakim and Ayad Allawi.

They all rejected the outcome of the elections, claiming nationwide fraud, and Al-Amiri and his ally Qais Al-Khazali threatened to use force. Their firebrand rhetoric may have prompted last months failed assassination attempt on Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi.

The Shiite powers formed a Coordination Framework that called for a manual recount of the ballots. And when the election committee confirmed the results after such a count, they invited Al-Sadr to a meeting. None wanted to dispose of the quota system that favored them. But Al-Sadr had another objective in mind: He reiterated that he wanted to form a national majority government that will be neither eastern nor western; i.e., that will end the convenient status quo that has brought the country to its knees. He will either form such a majority government with the help of the Sunni Arabs, the Kurds and the independents who were behind the 2019 mass protests, or else sit in opposition.

He would also welcome others to join, but only on his own terms. Even then, his demand that the pro-Iran militias be dissolved stands, while he continues to promise to expose those behind the assassination attempt on Al-Kadhimi.When push comes to shove, Al-Sadr and his new-found allies including the Arab Sunnis (Mohammed Al-Halbousis Taqaddum), the Kurds (Barzani branch) and the independents do have the upper hand. His rivals, under the umbrella of the Coordination Framework, may lose the glue that keeps them together when they realize that the election results will not be overturned.

Al-Sadr is proving to be a maverick by opposing the Americans and insisting on doing away with pro-Iran militias. Timing is very important and it may be on his side. The Americans are supposed to be leaving by the end of the year as they review their military presence in the Middle East. The threat of the pro-Iran militias subjugating the political system has subsided since the assassination of Qassem Soleimani last year. It is now clear that Irans grip over Iraq is waning and for many reasons. The Iraqi people are fed up with Iranian meddling, the vast corruption of the ruling political class and the failure to deal with existential economic, political and environmental challenges.

Al-Sadr has praised Al-Kadhimis efforts to keep Iraq neutral in the US-Iran showdown. He may decide to let him stay as prime minister, even if this is anathema to his Shiite rivals. This would be a major step forward for Iraq, which is trying to revive its national identity and rejoin the Arab fold. If Al-Sadr succeeds in toppling the ethnosectarian system, it will be a historic milestone in the countrys recovery. His failure would be disastrous on all fronts, so his gambit must succeed.

Originally posted here:
Al-Sadr's Gambit Must Succeed If Iraq Is To Have Bright Future OpEd - Eurasia Review