ERBIL, IRAQThe horrific video released this weekend by Islamic State (ISIS) captured more attention than the surprise visit to Iraq on Saturday by the United States top military commander, but both events masked another trend: ISIS is suffering setbacks, with Iraqi forces reclaiming some territory lost this summer.
More than three months after ISIS extremists threatened to sweep into this capital of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), a combination of U.S. and coalition airstrikes and some ground action has won back some territory claimed by ISIS, including Baiji, a strategic town with a major oil refinery.
In parts of northern Iraq, particularly within the disputed territories, Kurdish pesh merga forces have consolidated their positions and started to roll back ISIS.
But numerous discussions this past week with KRG leaders and top figures in the Sunni Arab community driven out of Mosul indicate that the campaign against ISIS in northern Iraq will have many challenges, including:
* ISISs ability to adapt. KRG security officials told me that ISIS has amended its tactics in reaction to the airstrikes: Its fighters hide more in the population; they use taxis and no longer travel in large convoys. ISIS tends to undertake offensive operations on cloudy days, when it assumes drone monitoring is impaired and the coalition is less capable of striking.
* Ongoing tensions between Arabs and Kurds. After bouncing back from initial losses this summer, Kurdish forces have consolidated control and advanced in areas of disputed territories, including Kirkuk, a major city that the Iraqi government and KRG have sparred over for years. Several Kurdish leaders told me that the KRG is unlikely to relinquish control now that it has seized it. The back-and-forth battles in places such as Zumar, as NPRs Leila Fadel reported this weekend, are likely to rile ethnic tensions between Arab and Kurdish communities.
* Widespread perceptions that Iran is calling the shots. Despite increased U.S. engagement and support from a regional and international coalition, many Kurdish government leaders see Iran as the main driver of events inside Iraq. Kurds allege that Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar Al-Abadi gave $1 billion to fund Shiite militias, groups viewed as having close ties to Iran, and contrast it with the $500 million deal struck last week between the Kurdish government and the central government in Baghdad. Qassem Suleimani, head of the Qods Force in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Council, is seen as a major power broker in this new Iraqi government.
* Lack of clear leaders as effective partners among Iraqi Sunnis. No one seemed to have a clear idea about who might galvanize and organize Sunnis in northern Iraq, including some of the major Sunni leaders. Some Sunni leaders appear to be waiting for the United States to ask them to mobilize forces. The former police chief of Mosul has set up a camp with a few thousand individuals for training, but some other Sunni leaders dismissed this effort as not credible. As it has been in the past, the divided Sunni leadership will remain a major obstacle.
These challenges represent potential stumbling blocks in any campaign to retake the northern city of Mosul, captured by ISIS in June.
Going forward, the U.S. and its partners in Iraq and the region should advance a more comprehensive strategy that takes into account these political dynamics. If we should have learned anything from more than a decade in Iraq, its that the countrys political dynamics directly affect its security situation.
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Good News From Iraq: ISIS Setbacks