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Philip Gordon, the former White House coordinator for the Middle East, North Africa and the Persian Gulf region. (photo credit:REUTERS)

A former top adviser to president Barack Obama said at a panel in Tel Aviv on Tuesday that US President Donald Trump is delusional about his ability to change the Iran nuclear deal.

It is fantasy to think that fundamental changes of the [Iran] deal could be achieved, Philip Gordon, a former top Obama administration official on Iran and the Middle East, said on Tuesday at an Institute for National Security Studies Conference panel discussion in Tel Aviv on the deals future under the Trump administration.

Gordon then listed specific aspects of the deal which he did not believe the Trump administration would be able to change.

For example, he said President Trump would fail to change: the deals sunset provisions, which remove limits on Irans nuclear program when certain deadlines pass; the number of centrifuges Iran can continue to operate under the deal; and the modalities of the deals inspection regime.

If Trumps team wants to see a fundamental revision without the support of our allies, Gordon said, anyone who thinks they can call Iran back to the table to get Iran to agree to a 30-year deadline for maintaining nuclear limits instead of the current deadlines of 6.5, 8.5 and 12.5 years, is kidding themselves, and will merely find the US itself more isolated.

I cant predict what Iran will be in 15 years, but lets see if it [the deal] buys us 10 to 15 years. If it still wants to build nuclear weapons and remains a regular threat, then the US, EU, Israel will decide what to do then, but why provoke that crisis decision today? he asked.

Gordon also predicted that even if the Trump administration does set a different tone in its dealings with Iran, at the end of the day there are structural geopolitical differences between US and Israeli interests. Those differences mean Israels threshold will probably always be in a different place in terms of at what point it feels threatened by Iran.

Former CIA director David Petraeus, who was also on the panel, called for Congress to pass a bipartisan statement that Iran will never get to enrich uranium to weapons-grade level.

Petraeus added that statement should be followed by saying openly that US Central Command has the authority to carry out any operations necessary just in case and to act with allies in the region to do more to confront Iran.

Petraus, the general who commanded US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, said the US should consider rolling back Iranian aggression in the region by backing Saudi Arabia more strongly in Yemen.

He said that the US had acted problematically by slamming the Saudis for civilian casualties caused by its attacks against Iran-allied forces in Yemen, while failing to give it more advanced precision-guided munitions, while cutting off assistance in target selection.

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Top Obama adviser: Trump is living in 'fantasy' over changing Iran deal - Jerusalem Post Israel News

New York Times

Iran, Russia and Turkey Agree to Enforce Syria Cease-Fire, but Don't Explain How New York Times ASTANA, Kazakhstan Two days of talks over the Syrian civil war concluded on Tuesday with an agreement by Iran, Russia and Turkey to enforce a fragile partial cease-fire. But neither the Syrian government nor the rebel fighters who briefly met ... Foreign powers back Syria truce deal, war erupts among rebelsReuters Russia, Turkey, Iran agree to tighten Syrian cease-fireUSA TODAY Russia, Turkey and Iran agree to jointly monitor ceasefire in Syria in step towards ending violenceTelegraph.co.uk BBC News -Deutsche Welle -Jerusalem Post Israel News all 387 news articles »

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Iran, Russia and Turkey Agree to Enforce Syria Cease-Fire, but Don't Explain How - New York Times

As the Trump administration begins planning its outreach to Moscow, one question for the new president will be whether he can persuade Russia to turn away from Iran.

The two countries have grown closer since 2015, when a group of nations lifted some sanctions on Iran in exchange for more transparency about its nuclear program. Russia sells Iran advanced air defense systems, and Iran provides its officers and militias to conquer the Syrian towns and cities indiscriminately bombed by Russian aircraft.

Trump administration officials tell me that they will explore the extent to which Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to end this relationship and cooperate with U.S. policy to counter Iranian aggression in Syria and the Middle East.

"It's important to find out what are the limits of Russia's willingness to cooperate with us with regard to Iran," said Michael Ledeen, who during the transition served as an adviser to Michael Flynn, now Trump's national security adviser. "Those conversations have to take place." Ledeen was Flynn's co-author of "Field of Fight," a 2016 book that outlined the retired general's national security vision.

That book makes the case that Iran must be defeated in order to win the war against radical Islam. At the same time, Flynn and Ledeen are also critical of Russia's value as a partner in the war against the Islamic State. "When it is said that Russia would make an ideal partner for fighting Radical Islam, it behooves us to remember that the Russians haven't been very effective at fighting jihadis on their own territory, and are in cahoots with the Iranians," they wrote. "In Syria, the two allies have loudly proclaimed they are waging war against ISIS, but in reality the great bulk of their efforts are aimed at the opponents of the Assad regime."

Now a great bulk of the Trump administration's diplomatic efforts will be to persuade Russia to cut the Iranians loose in Syria and to end arms sales to the Islamic Republic. Another factor will be the Iran nuclear agreement negotiated by Trump's predecessor. Trump has said he will not withdraw right away from it. But he has also been critical of the deal, and some incoming officials have said they would like to see if it's possible to renegotiate better terms.

In this sense, Trump is hewing closely to Barack Obama's playbook when he came into office in 2009. Back then, the U.S. scrapped a missile defense deployment in the Czech Republic and Poland and did not further pressure Russia on its occupation of Georgian territory following the 2008 war. In exchange, the Russians supported a U.N. Security Council resolution against Iran's nuclear program and negotiated an arms control treaty limiting long-range nuclear weapons for both countries.

It's unclear what the Russians would want in return this time around. Michael McFaul, a former U.S. ambassador to Russia who was an architect of Obama's first-term outreach to Russia, told me he didn't know what Trump could offer Putin in exchange for abandoning Iran, a key ally and trading partner. "Are we going to buy Russianweapons systems that Moscow can now sell to Tehran? Of course not," he said. "Are we going to get our Sunni allies to do so? That seems unlikely.I just don't see what Putin has to gain from such a deal."

Putin has at times hinted at what he'd like from the U.S. Before the election, the Kremlin announced it was suspending an agreement to dispose of weapons-grade plutonium in October. The Kremlin's announcement said Russia would consider renewing the plutonium agreement if the U.S. reduced its military presence in NATO countries along its borders, canceled sanctions imposed after Russia's annexation of Crimea and compensated Russia for revenue it lost because of those sanctions.

Trump himself has not said specifically what he would be willing to offer the Russians, though he has said he would be willing to lift sanctions on Russia under the right circumstances and has said in interviews that he is interested in pursuing new arms-control agreements with Russia.

Either way, the Iranian problem remains. Matthew McInnis, a former Defense Intelligence Agency analyst on Iran who is now a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, told me: "I see absolutely no way that you drive the Iranians out of Syria. But I could see how you reduce Iranian influence and presence there. That is a goal they could pursue." McInnis said this would mean Russia agrees to support rebuilding a Syrian army that would not be under the sway of Iran and its foreign militias.

Trump could also use the opportunity to play mind games with Iran's notoriously paranoid leaders. The Romanovs humiliated Iran in the 19th century with punitive treaties. Last summer tensions rose briefly when the Russians acknowledged they were flying air missions out of Iran into Syria. Iranian mistrust of Russia can be exploited with deft diplomacy.

It will be a balancing act. Trump will have a hard time persuading Congress that any accommodation of Russia these days is worth it, particularly because the intelligence community is now investigating ties between Trump's campaign and Putin's government before the election. Meanwhile Russia will have to weigh whether it values a new friendship with America over the one it already has with Iran.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

To contact the author of this story: Eli Lake at elake1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Philip Gray at philipgray@bloomberg.net

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Trump Team Aims to Test Russia's Alliance With Iran - Bloomberg

DOHA Kuwait's foreign minister will make a rare visit to Tehran on Wednesday to deliver a message to President Hassan Rouhani on a "basis of dialogue" between Gulf Arab states and arch-rival Iran, Kuwait's state news agency reported.

The visit comes days after Rouhani said countries including Kuwait had offered to mediate in the escalating feud between Shi'ite Muslim Iran and Sunni power Saudi Arabia.

Kuwaiti news agency KUNA quoted Foreign Minister Sheikh Sabah Khaled al-Sabah as saying relations between Iran and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) of six Arab states "must be based on the UN Charter and principles of international law".

Iran and Saudi Arabia, the dominant member of the GCC, back opposite sides in civil wars in Syria and Yemen.

Riyadh and some other members of the GCC accuse Tehran of using sectarianism to interfere in Arab countries and build its own sphere of influence in the Middle East.

Iran, set to benefit from an easing of international sanctions after its nuclear deal with world powers in 2015, denies interfering in Arab countries.

Tensions in the Gulf have reached levels unseen since the 1980s, when Iraq received Gulf Arab funding for its 1980-88 war against Iran in a pan-Arab effort to stem the influence of its 1979 Islamic revolution.

Saudi Arabia and Bahrain in January 2016 cut diplomatic relations with Iran and some other Gulf states recalled their ambassadors in solidarity with the oil-rich kingdom after its embassy in Iran was torched by protesters.

But long-standing trade links and shared access to oil and gas fields have stopped many Gulf states from shutting the door on Iran.

Kuwait, which has a sizeable Shi'ite Muslim minority, is seen as a potential mediator. When Kuwait's emir visited Iran in 2014 it was the first by a ruler of the U.S.-allied Gulf Arab state since the 1979 revolution.

"We are partners in the region and we have many common interests and possibilities," said Sabah, adding that dialogue would be for the benefit of both sides.

(Reporting by Tom Finn; editing by Andrew Roche)

BEIJING/WASHINGTON China said on Tuesday it had "irrefutable" sovereignty over disputed islands in the South China Sea after the White House vowed to defend "international territories" in the strategic waterway.

LONDON Prime Minister Theresa May must give parliament a vote before she can formally start Britain's exit from the European Union, the UK Supreme Court ruled on Tuesday, giving lawmakers who oppose her Brexit plans a shot at amending them.

JARABLUS, Syria A new Syrian police force trained and equipped by Turkey started work in a rebel-held border town on Tuesday, a sign of deepening Turkish influence in northern Syria, where it has helped drive out Islamic State militants in recent months.

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Kuwait to deliver message to Iran on dialogue with Gulf Arab states - Reuters

The upward trend in Irans popularity among air travelers looks like continuing during 2017, according to a study by ForwardKeys, the leading travel intelligence analyst.

Total international arrivals were up 18.3% last year, sustaining an upward path since 2013 (up 2.7%), 2014 (24.8%) and 2015 (12.7%). The pattern is reflected by a consistent year-on-year increase in total scheduled seats: 2014 (up 10.5%), 2015 (18.3%), 2016 (17.3%).

The study is timely, coming just weeks ahead of the inaugural Iran Hotel & Tourism Investment Conference (IHTIC) on 7-8 February 2017 in Tehran, which will be attended by numerous international investors and hotel industry experts.

ForwardKeys, which monitors future travel patterns by analyzing 16 million flight reservation transactions each day, also found that international arrivals to Iran saw positive monthly growth throughout 2016, with the exception of June because of the timing of Ramadan.

The main source regions for air travel to Iran are North America, Europe and the Middle East. Together, they made up 83.7% of international arrivals during 2016. Germany, with a 14.3% market share, was up 8.3%, followed by the USA (10.7% share) up 9.3%. Bahrain, Canada and the UK, all with significant market shares, also showed healthy growth in visitors to Iran.

Among the 12 top origin countries, only China and Pakistan were outside these main regions. ForwardKeys data also shows that 40% of Chinese visitors to Iran last year were on business trips.

Looking ahead, forward bookings, which means bookings already made for future travel, for the first half of 2017 are ahead 14.8%, based on those issued at the beginning of January, suggesting the upward surge of international visitors to Iran is still growing in momentum.

Arrivals in Iran during 2017 are being boosted by increased air connectivity from a number of centers one being that Italy is benefiting from Alitalia and Iran Air tripling their scheduled seats since November last year. Also, the Netherlands is connected by one more daily flight from Amsterdam to Tehran by KLM since October 2016. Additionally, an increasing number of Belgian travelers are using Amsterdam to transfer to Iran, while Swiss travelers tend to route via Vienna, from where Austrian Airlines is doubling its scheduled seats during the first half of 2017.

Olivier Jager, CEO of ForwardKeys, said our findings support the conclusion that political change in Iran is making the country more approachable, an attractive place to visit and potentially do business. The image of Iran around the world is changing. Its many tourist attractions, historic, religious and spectacular, are once again being emphasized. I expect visitor numbers to increase, so long as Irans airport capacity can keep pace.

HA/PR

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Iran's irresistible rise as tourist destination - Mehr News Agency - English Version