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A U.S. air raid against Iranian-backed fighters in southern Syria last week represents a volatile new phase of the conflict that could trigger a wider confrontation between the United States and Iran and their allies on the ground.

Until last weeks strike, the United States and Iran had managed to steer clear of a direct confrontation in Iraq and Syria, where each has hundreds of military advisors on the ground, embedded with local forces. In Iraq, they share a common enemy in the Islamic State. In Syria, the two sides are waging different wars: U.S. aircraft and special operations forces are pushing to roll back Islamic State militants, while Iran is backing the Syrian regime against opposition forces in a multi-sided civil war.

But as the Islamic States grip on territory weakens, the United States and Iran are increasingly at odds as their local partners vie for control of key terrain along the Syria-Iraq border.

In the May 18 air strike, U.S. F-16s hit a convoy of Iranian-armed Shiite fighters who failed to heed warnings to stay away from a base at al Tanf, close to the Jordanian and Iraqi borders, which is used by American and British special forces to train local militias fighting the Islamic State. The air strike marked the first time U.S. forces had targeted Irans proxies in Syria. A few days later, the Iranian proxies returned to the area, and U.S. warplanes buzzed them in a clear warning to keep away, the Pentagon said Tuesday.

U.S. military officers played down the incidents, saying the airstrike was merely a matter of safeguarding American special operations forces in the countrys southeast.

This doesnt signal any change in strategy, said a senior U.S. military officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The U.S. strategy, under both President Donald Trump and former President Barack Obama, has concentrated on defeating Islamic State forces on the battlefield and depriving them of territory in Iraq and Syria. With the exception of missile strikes against Syria last month in retaliation for its use of chemical weapons, the Trump administration so far has chosen not to enter into a military confrontation with the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad, or its patrons Iran and Russia

Having pushed Islamic State back in much of northeastern Syria, U.S. commanders are determined to oust the militants from their last urban bastion in Raqqa. A U.S.-armed and trained force of Kurdish and Arab fighters has begun to encircle Raqqa, and once the city falls, American officers hope to hunt down ISIS in eastern Deir Ezzor province and the Euphrates River Valley, where the group still exists in force.

But Iran has grown alarmed over the growing presence of U.S. special operations forces in southern Syria, and the progress of Syrian Kurdish and Arab troops on the battlefield. Iran is keen to secure a corridor linking Tehran and Baghdad to Syria and Lebanon, and Tehran state-run media have claimed the U.S. forces are in the border area to block any supply routes for Iran.

In response, Tehran has deployed thousands of Afghan and Iraqi Shiite fighters, and in recent weeks has sent 3,000 Lebanese Hezbollah troops to the southeastern region between al Tanf and Deir Ezzor, according to reports from Fars news agency, affiliated with Irans Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The Hezbollah troops were sent to the al-Tanf area to prepare the Syrian army and its allies for thwarting the U.S. plots in the region and establish security at the Palmyra-Baghdad road, Fars wrote, just hours before the U.S. air raid. They could also serve as a blocking force to keep U.S.-backed fighters from moving north out of al Tanf.

The escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran in Syria coincided with tougher rhetoric from President Trump directed at Iran. In a speech this week in Saudi Arabia, Trump labeled Iran as a source of destruction and chaos, and called on countries in the region to form a united front against Tehran.

Although Trump has promised to adopt an aggressive stance with Tehran, the White House is still conducting a review of its policy toward Iran and the administration has yet to articulate U.S. goals along the Syria-Iraq border.

Its not clear to me yet if the administration has a detailed strategy [on] how to manage its presence and its allies presence in eastern Syria, said Robert Ford, former U.S. ambassador to Syria and now a fellow at the Middle East Institute.

If the administration is not careful, its going to be a slippery slope. It seems like theres a potential for more conflict.

The Trump administration has given the U.S. military the authority to base about 1,000 troops mostly special operations forces in Syria, spread out among several small outposts in the Kurdish north, a Marine Corps fire base close to Raqqa, and at al Tanf in the south. These small outposts are separated by hundreds of miles of territory where ISIS is steadily losing control, and which regime forces and their Iranian allies see as fertile ground to reestablish the Syrian governments control.

The U.S.-led coalition is keeping a wary eye on the militias. One U.S. defense official told FP they are watching the militias inch their way eastward toward Deir Ezzor, where the Syrian government maintains a significant and isolated military outpost. The base has long been cut off from other areas of regime control and can only be resupplied by airdrops, but it was recently reinforced by about 1,000 Syrian soldiers, giving the regime in Damascus some fighting power in the area.

American military leaders have long said they expect ISIS to retreat into the Euphrates River Valley that connects Raqqa to the Iraqi border, and U.S. and coalition aircraft have been striking ISIS targets in the valley for months. U.S. warplanes carried out more air strikes in the area this week.

Some of the Iranian-backed militia fighters remain in place near al Tanf, despite the U.S. air strike and last weekends warning. If they resume their advance, coalition forces will defend themselves, Pentagon spokesman Capt. Jeff Davis told reporters on Tuesday.

Another military official added that we have a good understanding they will want to continue moving east toward Deir Ezzor, and the fighters are being closely tracked.

When the fight moves to the Euphrates valley in Deir Ezzor, the risks of an unintended conflict will grow. With U.S-backed Free Syrian Army forces moving from the south, Kurdish and Arab Syrian Democratic Forces advancing from the north and west, pro-regime militias trying to push into the area and both American and Russian aircraft buzzing overhead, some worry that the crowded battlefield could lead to unwanted incidents.

The Iranian supported militias often operate in close proximity to U.S. troops, especially in Iraq. An FP reporter, visiting a U.S. military base south of Mosul earlier this year, saw a chart in the operations center with the flags of the major armed Shiite militias operating in the vicinity, so U.S. forces could identify what groups are operating close by, often just on the perimeter of their base.

Last September, U.S and coalition jets inadvertently struck a small outpost in the east of Syria, killing over 60 Assad regime soldiers in an incident that angered Moscow and highlighted how confused the battlefield there can be.

With American troops on the ground, and advisors moving around with small local units, there remains the danger of Iranian retaliation. During the U.S. occupation of Iraq, Tehran provided Shiite militias with deadly roadside bombs and rockets that claimed hundreds of American lives.

Already, Iranian-backed Iraqi militia groups have increased their anti-U.S. propaganda in Iraq, accusing Washington of aiding the Islamic State and pressuring the Baghdad government to expel American troops advising the Iraqi security forces inMosul and across the country, Ahmad Majidyar, director of the IranObserved Project at the Middle East Institute, wrote recently.

Any response from Iran would be asymmetrical, Majidyar said, and could come in places like Iraq.

Photo Credit: JOSEPH EID/AFP/Getty Images

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Are the US and Iran on a Collision Course in Syria? - Foreign Policy (blog)

Hanover Misagh Parsa, a professor of sociology at Dartmouth College, outlined the roots of a deep discord between the Iranian people and their Islamist government and pointed to possible outcomes during a talk Tuesday afternoon at the Haldeman Center.

The discussion came within days of a convincing victory from Hassan Rouhani, a moderate reformer, in the countrys presidential election and also coincides with the publication of Parsas latest book, Democracy in Iran: Why It Failed and How It Might Succeed.

Parsa opened with a video that might give democratizers cause for hope: footage of swarms of Iranians celebrating Rouhani in the streets, dancing to thumping music forbidden by Islamic clerics with some women waving their head scarves in the air.

But he almost immediately tempered that optimism, noting that the countrys supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,clerics and the military hold most of the power. To achieve democratic rule, Parsa said, another revolution will have to finish what began with the 1979 ouster of the autocratic shah.

Its highly unlikely for Iran to democratize through reform, Parsa said, given that reformers have to work within the existing structures of power. And so instead its likely that Iran will need to go through another revolutionary transformation.

The Islamic regime has been at odds with the people since the beginning, according to Parsa. The first supreme leader, Ruhollah Khomeini, promised democratic reforms early on, giving no hint to the Iranian public that he intended to establish a religious government.

The people did not ask for an Islamic theocracy, Parsa said. ... That was not part of the deal.

Instead they gave them something no one was interested in, he said, referring to the social and cultural restrictions imposed by Islamic leaders: restrictions on the dress and behavior of women, for instance, and bans on drinking and music.

Parsa ticked off year after year since 1979 in which massive protests against the regime were followed by brutal repression, including thousands of executions an indication, he said, that the divide between a religious government and a more secular populace is only growing deeper.

The numbers of conservative clergy in the countrys parliament, for example, have fallen at a shocking rate, he said decreasing from 60.7 percent of all members in 1980 to 5.5 percent in 2016.

Gene Garthwaite, a professor emeritus of history who gave remarks afterward, bolstered that point, saying religion in Iran has become way overemphasized for Westerners as Iranians grow increasingly cynical about it.

During a recent trip to the Middle East, Garthwaite found that mosques in Istanbul were full of worshippers, he said, whereas in Iran, theyre all empty. Thats one of the biggest shocks.

Parsa said the regime had failed to deliver on its promises to the people in other ways especially economically. Khomeini initially pledged to reduce inequality and help the poor, but after seizing power he and his allies took the assets of the royal family and their associates.

In the years since, corruption and cronyism have become even more widespread than they were under the U.S.-backed shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, Parsa said.

In the shahs day, public universities commanded more respect, he said, Now you can go and buy degrees at any state Iranian university.

During a question-and-answer session, audience member Bruce Garland asked whether it might take more bloodshed to dislodge the current regime than it did for the shah, who fled along with his associates to the West Whereas the (Revolutionary) Guard has nowhere to go, he said, and therefore the fight would be much more bloody, much more intractable.

Parsa said Iranians were aware that the regime was capable of extreme violence and wanted to avoid that happening.

Iranians know that these people are very ruthless and they are willing to kill thousands again, he said.

But at the same time, Parsa added, the Iranian government feels deeply threatened by popular protests.

Earlier during the event, he noted that Khamenei had lamented that massive protests against fraud in the 2009 election had brought the Islamic Republicto the edge of the cliff.

Other high-ranking officials said those demonstrations had posed a greater challenge to the regime than the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War.

Daniel Benjamin, director of the John Sloan Dickey Center for International Understanding, asked what events were most likely to trigger another revolution in Iran.

Earlier, Garthwaite had noted that a succession crisis could develop when Khamenei leaves power.

Although Parsa didnt offer a specific example of a revolutionary trigger, he said the impetus shouldnt come from Washington.

Every time theres an external conflict, Iranians tend to unite, he said. That is what should not happen. Let the contradictions heighten.

Tuesdays event was co-sponsored by the Dickey Center and the Department of Sociology.

Rob Wolfe can be reached at rwolfe@vnews.com or at 603-727-3242.

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Professor Gives View on Iran's Politics - Valley News

Zambia U20 celebrate a goal by Fashion Sakala

Zambia came back from two goals down to secure a thrilling 4-2 victory over Iran on Wednesday, taking a giant step towards the knockout stages of the 2017 FIFA Under-20 World Cup in Gabon.

A double from Reza Shekari had the Iranians 2-0 up almost 10 minutes into the second half, but Zambia then shifted up a gear and netted four times in 17 minutes to stun their opponents.

Fashion Sakala, Enock Mwepu, Emmanuel Banda, and Patson Daka netted the goals as Young Chipolopolo made it two wins from two in the group stage, following their opening 2-0 victory over Portugal.

They are just about certain of a place in the second round as the top two sides in each pool, as well as the four best third-place finishers, advance to the knockout stage.

Iran had won their opener 1-0 over Costa Rica and all is not lost for them as they face a final clash with Portugal on Saturday. Zambia will be confident of seeing off the Costa Ricans on the same day.

It did not look good for the Africans early on though, when Shekari missed an open goal with nobody but the keeper to beat, and then did convert a chance six minutes in, after a horrendous mistake from Zambia keeper Mangani Manda.

With time to make his clearance, the keeper passed the ball straight to Shekari, who ran at goal and supplied the finish.

The Iranian forward made it 2-0 early in the second half when his side won a penalty and he easily converted from the spot.

But from then on in it was all Zambia as Sakala collected a pass from namesake and captain Solomon Sakala and blasted the ball home on 54 minutes.

Five minutes later it was 2-2 when Mwepu was given too much time and space, and he supplied a fantastic shot to score.

The turnaround was complete on 65 minutes when Banda found the back of the net, before striker Daka, on as a substitute, grabbed a fourth with 71 minutes on the clock.

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Zambia U20 seal fightback win over Iran - ESPN FC

As he concluded his visit to the Middle East on Tuesday, US President Donald Trump championed the Gulf states and pitted himself as the worlds chief antagonist against Shiite Iran and its proxies, ISIS, Hezbollah and Hamas.

The Israeli diplomats and officials invited to hear the speech live in Jerusalem were delighted, rewarding Trump's remarks at the Israel Museum with frequent applause and numerous standing ovations.

Believe me, Iran will never have a nuclear weapon, that I can tell you, the president told his excited audience, as a beaming Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nodded in satisfaction. Irans leaders routinely call for Israels destruction. Not with Donald J. Trump.

Trumps strategic re-positioning in the region has two parts. The first is the reversal of the Iran nuclear deal framework, brokered by former President Barack Obama in 2015, which calls for a restriction of Irans nuclear capacities in exchange for significant economic incentives from the West.

Netanyahu had ferociously opposed the Iran deal, claiming it posed an existential threat to Israel. He even attempted, unsuccessfully, to undermine Obamas efforts by circumventing the White House and addressing his objections directly to Congress.

Referring to the deal, Trump told the Israeli public on Tuesday, We not only gave them [the Iranians] a lifeline, we gave them wealth and prosperity. And we also gave them an ability to continue with terror no matter where we go we see the signs of Iran in the Middle East. Instead of saying thank you to the United States, they now feel emboldened. It was a terrible, terrible thing for the United States to enter that deal.

The second part of Trump's strategy entails building a coalition against Iranand its Shiite proxies with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states. And as part of that coalition-building, the United States will encourage the Gulf states to normalize their relationship with Israel, once Israel reaches an agreement with the Palestinians and withdraws from the West Bank.

Said Trump, There are those who say that we must choose between supporting Israel and supporting Arab and Muslim nations in the region. That is completely wrong. All decent people want to live in peace, and all humanity is threatened by the evils of terrorism. Diverse nations can unite around the goal of protecting innocent life, upholding human dignity, and promoting peace and stability in the region. My administration is committed to pursuing such a coalition, and we have already made substantial progress during this trip.

This idea of what New Yorker contributor Nathan Thrall called an outside-in peace process isnt new. It dates back to the Arab Peace Initiative, first presented by the League of Arab States in 2002, and is based on the promise that the Arab states will normalize their relations with Israel once the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is resolved. But in his statements, Trump seemed to imply that he had reached some tentative agreements that would allow Israel to step toward normalization before, rather than after, resolution of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

Meir Javedanfar is an Iranian-born Israeliwho teaches contemporary Iranian politics at a private research university in Israel, the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya. He says Israel already has some limited partnerships with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States in the field of intelligence, although officially they have no diplomatic relations. Commercial Israeli flights aren't even allowed to fly over Saudi Arabian airspace.

Which is why Israelis of almost all political persuasions were excited to see Air Force One touch down Tuesday from Riyadh,marking the first official direct flight from Saudi Arabia to Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv.

Immediately after the speech, Isaac Herzog head of the opposition from the Zionist Camp, the second-largest party in the Israeli Knesset told Voice of Israel Radio that Trumps remarks represented a total change in the psychology of the Middle East.

To arm Saudi Arabia so it can resist the Iranian threats, Trump has signed an arms deal with the kingdom worth $110 billion dollars but giving frenemy Saudi Arabia that much firepower leaves Israel uncomfortable. After all, Saudi Arabia promotes anti-Semitism and fundamentalist extremism.

Commentator Chemi Shalev wrote in Haaretz that the deal will give the Saudis a hold on Trump, which means he wont be quick to cross them. His shifting attitude toward the Saudi kingdom shows that he can change his mind violently literally from one day to the next, and turn his worst enemy into his greatest ally without thinking twice.

Indeed, Israeli leadersare already worried that they might lose their edge in the region. Speaking on Israeli television, Yuval Steineitz, Minister of National Infrastructure, Energy and Water Resources, praised Trumps promises but added soberly, We will have to sit with the Americans to ensure that in any eventuality, Israel will maintain its military superiority.

Trump has not offered public indications that he has any such intentions.

In recent presidential elections, Iranians rejected the hardline candidates and empowered relative moderate Hassan Rouhani, who seeks to engage with the wider world. But there is always the risk Trumps strong anti-Iran position could actually exacerbate sectarianism.

While they lauded Trumps anti-Iran stance, Netanyahu and his right-wing coalition didnt cheer at all for what the US president had to say about the Palestinians.

I had a great meeting this morning with President Mahmoud Abbas and I can tell you that he is ready to reach a peace deal. I am telling you that, thats what I do, Trump told the suddenly quiet audience in Jerusalem.

We know, for instance, that both Israelis and Palestinians seek lives of hope for their children. And we know that peace is possible if we put aside the pain and disagreements of the past and commit together to finally resolving this crisis which has dragged on for nearly half [a] century.

Right-wingers said they were at least relieved that Trump made no mention of the two-state solution, which they strongly oppose. Speaking on Israeli television, Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked stated, We know that Trump will soon come to realize that there is no partner for peace on the Palestinian side. And he will not impose anything on us, and he will not patronize us.There will never be a Palestinian state.

And therein lies the catch: The willingness of the Sunni coalition to normalize relations with Israel and the Gulf states is predicated on the resolution of the Palestinian conflict. But Israels current hardline government has no intention of making the concessions that such a resolution would demand.

Former left-wing lawmaker Nitzan Horowitz, writing in the Jerusalem Post, warns that Netanyahu is merely playing the regional card as an attempt to dissolve any prospects for progress with the Palestinians.

In the eyes of cynical Israelis, Trump, like Netanyahu in the past, is awarding himself the world title of Mr. Anti-Terror, this time against Iran. For his part, Netanyahu hasnt mentioned Iran publicly in months.

And meanwhile, to the average Israeli, Iran and Saudi Arabia seem particularly far away in the face of ongoing clashes with the Palestinians.

Eetta Prince-Gibson reported from Jerusalem.

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Trump's alignment with Israel and Saudi against Iran: Here's the catch - PRI

Iran says the Sydney siege tragedy would have been prevented had Australia heeded its warnings over gunman Man Haron Monis and extradited him to face fraud charges.

Monis was wanted by Iranian authorities which informed Interpol and the Australian government as early as the 2000s about the man, who was born Mohammed Hassan Manteghi in a town almost 400km from Tehran.

The long-awaited findings of the Lindt siege inquest on Wednesday found that Monis had defrauded customers of his travel agency in Iran of about $550,000 before he fled to Australia.

But Australia did not have an extradition treaty with Iran and Monis was not taken back to face the charges.

Irans ambassador in Canberra, Abdolhossein Vahaji, told SBS World News that had the extradition been granted the siege would have never happened.

If we could have repatriated that person from Australia to Iran, under any circumstances, under any rules and regulations if we could do that, I believe that this tragedy would be prevented," he said.

Both countries have been involved in this tragedy.

The important thing is we have to get a lesson from this kind of procedure."

Mr Vahaji described Monis as a religious fraud and a cheat.

I believe he was fooling society. He was cheating the people, he said.

He was not a normal person. He was not a religious person. He was carrying those uniform that clergy people were using in order to fool society, fool the people.

He was mentally distorted.

Australian authorities are now working with Iran on extraditing another individual on a financial related matter, he said.

Mr Vahaji wouldnt go into the details but said it did not involve a threat to Australias national security.

Fortunately we are now on the right track, he said.

Meanwhile, the inquest findings said ASIO received potentially adverse information about Monis in 1996 unrelated to a terrorism threat.

Monis later applied for a protection visa claiming to be a refugee.

He was granted it in August 2000, with ASIO concluding he did not pose a risk to national security.

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Lindt siege tragedy could have been avoided, Iran's ambassador says - SBS