Donald Trumps Middle East policy is emerging. Apart from    supporting Israel, he wants to eradicate ISIL and other Islamic    jihadists, he wants to deter Iran and its dream of hegemony    over the entire Middle East, and he wants the Arab countries to    bear the burden of their own defence.  
    His answer: an Arab NATO, funded by its Arab members and aided    by the military and intelligence assets of Israel and the    United States.  
    The idea of a military alliance among the Arab nations first    came from Egypts President Abdel al-Sisi two years ago in    February, 2015, when he went on national television to warn    about radical jihadis across the Middle East. The Arab League    at its summit the following month endorsed the concept, and    military heads from 11 Arab countries (Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the    UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria, Sudan, Libya and    Jordan) then met to work out the details.  
    But al-Sisis plans soon went into a deep freeze, despite a    push by Lt. Gen. Mike Flynn, former head of the Defense    Intelligence Agency, who argued in June 2015 testimony to two    Congressional subcommittees that the U.S. should fully    support, help organize, and assist those regional partners    create an Arab NATO-like structure and framework. Build an    Arab Army that is able to secure their regional    responsibilities. Flynn was especially focused on deterring a    Russia-backed Iran, which poses a nuclear threat to the United    States as well as to the countries of the Middle East  not    just Israel, about which Iran is most vocal, but also the Sunni    Arab states and Sunni Turkey, a NATO ally of the U.S.  
    Upon becoming president, Trump immediately revived the    al-Sisi-Flynn plan. Rather than accepting Americas outsized    military burden in the Middle East, he pressed the Arab NATO    plan with Arab diplomats in Washington through Flynn, who had    become his national security advisor, and Defense Secretary Jim    Mattis. Trump personally took the issue up with Israeli Prime    Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who was immediately receptive.  
    I believe that the great opportunity for peace comes from a    regional approach from involving our newfound Arab partners,    Netanyahu stated at a joint press conference with Trump when in    Washington in February. Elaborated Trump: It is something that    is very different, hasnt been discussed before. And its    actually a much bigger deal  much more important deal in a    sense. It would take in many, many countries and would cover a    very large territory.  
    The much bigger deal involves something for all the Sunni    Arab states in the region. Saudi Arabia needs help fighting the    Iranian-backed Houtis in Yemen, Egypt needs help countering    threats from Libya, all are at risk from ISIL. As a down    payment on the deal, the Trump administration launched a    commando raid into Yemen. To seal the deal, Trump must overcome    Arab fears of being accused of entering an alliance with    Israel. Arab leaders have asked Trump to hold off moving his    embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, and to prevent Israel from    building new settlements, requests with which Trump is    complying.  
    In short order, Trump has begun to realign the Arab armies, at    the same time indicating he has their back against a    nuclear-powered Iran bent on hegemony over the Middle East.    Judging by the reaction of Iran, Trumps approach is working.  
    After Irans long-range missile launch on Jan.29, shortly    after Trumps inauguration, it was menacingly put on notice    by the Trump administration, and to immediate effect. Iran soon    cancelled a follow-up launch of a long-range missile that had    been planned, and even cancelled a non-military launch of a    satellite, for fear of rousing Trumps ire. According to Irans    Tasnin News Agency, a frustrated Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander    of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force,    bitterly complained that Iran had been deterred because of    Americas angry tone  How much longer will we be blackmailed    and forced to compromise? If we do not change our strategy, and    continue to operate according to orders from officials who are    stuck in the mud, our situation will deteriorate daily.  
    The deterrence went further. Iran has stopped provoking U.S.    navy vessels on the water, all but stopped its public threats    to sink them, all but stopped burning the American flag, all    but stopped its Death to America calls. Irans reticence to    provoke the U.S. has continued despite criticism. As put in one    Iranian article earlier this month, when Trump was elected,    (government officials) said that Trump was unpredictable and    makes unconsidered decisions  and that is why it is better for    us to refrain from saying anything to offend him Adding to    Irans angst is a fear that Russia has abandoned it, after    being wooed into an alliance with the U.S. that will see Iran    squeezed out of Syria.  
    Iran is now on its back foot, concluded an analysis by the    Middle East Media Research Institute, saying These    developments have given rise in Tehran to a sense that it is    besieged and under an emerging existential threat, in light of    the crystallization of a comprehensive U.S.-Russia-Arab    (including Israel) front against the Iranian revolutionary    regime.  
    Trump, in contrast, is leaning forward, his assertive Middle    East diplomacy, two months into his presidency, showing    astonishingly promising results.  
    National Post  
    Lawrence Solomon is a policy analyst with Toronto-based    Probe    International. LawrenceSolomon@nextcity.com  
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Lawrence Solomon: With an Arab NATO and a contained Iran, Trump is changing the Middle East - National Post