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Newsha Tavakolian/Magnum Photos Tehran, 2015

Irans presidential election on May 19 will in all likelihood be won by the incumbent, the moderate cleric Hassan Rouhani. In 2015, two years after he came to power, Rouhani pulled the country back from the brink of confrontation with the West when he guided Iran toward the historic nuclear deal with the Obama administration. For Iran, the agreementwhich it reached with the United States, the four other permanent members of the UN Security Council, and Germanywas supposed to bring its economy in from the cold after the bellicose and isolationist presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. According to the terms of the deal, many tough international sanctions on Iran were lifted in exchange for Irans mothballing of some of its main nuclear facilities; at last, foreign cash was supposed to flow in and the countrys lucrative oil reserves to flow out. So a Rouhani victory this month might seem like fair reward.

But the economic miracle that was promised by the Rouhani government hasnt happened, and the sense of anti-climax is palpablea disillusionment that has broadened into a general contempt for politics, politicians, and promises that arent kept. Whether in Tehran or far-flung areas such as Khuzestanan oil-rich province in the south that nonetheless suffers from chronic electricity and water outages, and whose inhabitants complain of neglect by the central governmentthere is widespread skepticism of the states determinationto improve the lot of the ordinary Iranian.

True, inflation has been brought down to single digits from above 40 percent at the end of the Ahmadinejad era, but a recent spurt of economic growth (to above 6 percent in the Iranian year ending in March) was largely the result of a one-time leap in oil receipts following the reopening of world markets to Iranian hydrocarbons; all the while, indebted factories around the country are unable to pay their workers, hard-up schoolteachers may be found supplementing their meager incomes by freelancing as drivers for Snap, the Iranian Uber, andmost ominous of all in this young, restless societyunemployment among the under-twenty-fives is running at almost 30 percent. Whether it is acquiring property, buying a car, or marrying and forming families, middle-class Iranians are doing everything later, if at all. Meanwhile, the affluent continue to buy property, foreign currency, or gold, or put their money on depositanything to avoid investing it in the underproductive, capital-starved real economy. An influx of consumer goods, from Porsches to perfume at $300 a bottle, and a rise in the number of chic restaurants serving international food to the strains of Turkish pop, attest to the fearsome spending power of this rentier class.

Few of Irans current ills can in fact be traced to the Rouhani administration, which, on the whole, has played a poor hand well. But the government is paying the price for raised expectations of an influx of foreign investment, whichnotwithstanding President Donald Trumps claims that Iran has been making hay since the lifting of sanctionshas signally failed to materialize. Investors fear that the new US administration and the US courts will continue to punish multinationalsincluding banks and oil companiesthat have extensive dealings with Iran.

Meanwhile, the Trump administrations policy toward Iran is ominous, further contributing to the culture of prevarication that attends any major investment decision. On April 18, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson told Congress that Iran was complying with its obligations under the nuclear deal; this is the same Tillerson who likened the deal to the failed approachthat brought us to the current imminent threat we face from North Korea. Trump has ordered an interagency review to see whether the Iran deal is, in Tillersons words, vital to the national security interests of the US.

The Iranian election campaign has been dominated by speculation over whether or not the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, favors one of Rouhanis opponentsonly the president and five other candidates have been cleared to stand by the Council of Guardians, a vetting body that also doubles as an upper house of parliament. Khamenei recently slapped down Rouhani after the latter claimed to have lifted the shadow of war from the country; the people were responsible, apparently. One of the most prominent conservative candidates, Ebrahim Raisi, a somber cleric with a power base in the shrine city of Mashhad, is certainly close to Khamenei; he stresses the succour that he would bring to the poorer sections of society, presumably through a rise in the subsidies that made Ahmadinejad so popular among the poorand which helped tip the country into economic crisis by the time Rouhani took over.

Even as the presidential campaign enters its final weeks, proceeding sedately on the surface, without the huge rallies of neighboring Turkey, or India, the eyes of Irans political elites are fixed on the inexorably approaching succession to seventy-seven-year-old Supreme Leader. Overshadowing the election to decide the countrys number two positionthe president is head of the executive, but in practice all major decisions must be cleared by Khameneiis the knowledge that the Islamic Republic will at some stage in the next few years face a struggle over who becomes number onea struggle that will be resolved not at the ballot box but in assemblies inaccessible to ordinary people. One theory is that Raisi is being pushed forward as a possible eventual candidate for Supreme Leader, but if he loses the presidential election, his stock will inevitably fall.

It is a measure of the growing insolence of the political class in this period of morbid anticipation that the main early drama of the campaign was an act of lse-majest by Ahmadinejad himself, aimed at stamping his personality on events. Ahmadinejads eight-year tenure between 2005 and 2013 was tainted by far-reaching peculation and economic mismanagement, glowering tensions with the US and Israel, and the brutal treatment of Iranian protesters following his disputed re-election in 2009.

On April 19, in defiance of advice from Khamenei, Ahmadinejad announced his candidacy for the presidency, and although he was duly disqualified by the Council of Guardians, in the course of a subsequent press conference he alluded in indirect fashion to the Supreme Leader being responsible for the excesses of 2009. In this way Ahmadinejad let it be known that it was in his power to make damaging disclosures. His eight-year presidency gave him access to the most intimate secrets of the Islamic Republic, and his erratic blend of nationalism, millenarianism (one of his close associates is popularly believed to be in touch with the occulted Twelfth Shia imam), and populist appeal are a threat to the clerical hierarchy.

It is little wonder that in the aftermath of Ahmadinejads disqualification there have been rumors that his freedom of movement has been restricted. Since the inception of the Islamic Republic in 1979 several ex-heads of government have fallen out of favor and either fled into exile, been placed under house arrest, or been otherwise excluded from public life. Ahmadinejad may now be setting out his stall as a figure of opposition, with a view to influencing events after Khameneis demise.

The Council of Guardians was rumored to have come close to disqualifying Rouhani as well. Hardliners have accused him of craven capitulation to the United States in the nuclear negotiations, of encouraging corruption and a flood of Western consumer goods under the vague rubric of economic liberalization, and of turning a blind eye to the spread of degenerate Western culture in Iran.

The decline of revolutionary ideals may be gauged by the fact that one of the most popular films in Iran at present is a the latest instalment of a satire, Gasht-e Ershad, or Guidance Patrol, on the morality squads that once struck dread into young people, while in affluent north Tehran the compulsory hijab, or womens head covering, is increasingly honored in the breach; having for years taken the form of a light headscarf clinging precariously to the back of the head, in some cases it has slipped further, reduced to the status of a neckerchief. Meanwhile, regime stalwarts are mercilessly mocked on social media, while few young people show any interest in such monuments to the Islamic Revolution as the former US embassy, parts of which operate as a museum to inform Iranians about the perfidious actions of Uncle Sam. The slippage in Islamic zeal is pervasive, extending in some cases to the families of leading hardliners. Thus, it is less on social and cultural issues that Rouhani will be vulnerable on polling dayfew Iranians seem to hunger for a return to the austerities of the pastbut economic ones.

Even taking into account Irans rumbling discontents, it seems unlikely that either Raisi, who as a judicial official was associated with many repressive measures, or Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who has twice failed in bids for the presidency, stand much chance of toppling a man who, for all the grumbles about his underperformance, has brought the country a precious measure of stability. A greater threat to Rouhanis second term may come from the Trump administration and its Republican-dominated Congress, which, whatever the results of the current review, are unlikely to ease their opposition to investment in Iran. If the US persists, it will only entrench Rouhanis reputation as the man who gave up Irans nuclear program in return for eau de cologne.

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Iran: The Miracle That Wasn't - The New York Review of Books

ANKARA Iran's main pro-reform opposition leaders plan to speak out from their confinement under house arrest this month to publicly back President Hassan Rouhani for re-election, aides say, helping win over voters disillusioned with the slow pace of change.

Rouhani was elected in a landslide in 2013 on promises to ease Iran's international isolation and open up society. He is standing for a second term against five other candidates, mostly prominent hardliners, on May 19, with a run-off a week later if no candidate wins more than 50 percent of votes cast in the first round.

In his first term, Rouhani expended his political capital pushing through a landmark agreement with global powers to limit Iran's nuclear program in return for the lifting of international financial sanctions.

But even his supporters acknowledge he has made comparatively little progress on his domestic agenda, after promising that Iranians should enjoy the same rights as other people around the world.

Some reformist critics say he neglected the cause of curbing the powers of the security forces and rolling back restrictions that govern how Iranians dress, behave, speak and assemble.

Nevertheless, Iran's two leading champions of the reform movement, former prime minister Mir Hossein Mousavi and former parliament speaker Mehdi Karoubi, will urge voters to back him, a spokesman said.

"The two leaders, like in previous elections, will support the candidate backed by the pro-reform faction," said Ardeshir Amir-Arjomand, the Paris-based spokesman for the two men.

Another source close to the opposition leaders said "Mousavi and Karoubi will announce their support for Rouhani a few days before the May 19 vote."

Rouhani has already won the backing of former President Mohammad Khatami, considered the spiritual leader of the reformists, who declared his support on his website on Tuesday. Iranian newspapers and broadcasters are banned from publishing the former president's image or mentioning his name.

Many reformist voters will look for guidance to Mousavi and Karoubi, who both stood for president in 2009 when opposition to the disputed victory of hardliner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad led to Iran's biggest mass demonstrations since its 1979 revolution.

Both men have been held under house arrest for six years, although neither has been convicted of a crime. Their pronouncements from their confinement are eagerly followed by reformists online.

Maryam Zare, a 19-year-old in Tehran who would be voting for president for the first time, said she would vote only if she heard a call to do so from Karoubi and Mousavi.

"I will vote for whoever they support," she said.

Others said they would back Rouhani, but only reluctantly.

"He is part of the establishment. We have to vote for the lesser of evils," said music teacher Morad Behmanesh in the central city of Yazd. "What happened to Rouhani's promises of releasing the two opposition leaders from house arrest?"

PRIORITIES

Under Iran's governing system, the elected president's powers are limited, circumscribed by the authority of the supreme leader, a position held since 1989 by hardline cleric Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

During Rouhani's first term, the president won Khamenei's cautious backing for his nuclear deal. But persuading the leader to accept social change may be a more difficult task.

Some of Rouhani's allies say he will now be able to make more progress on his domestic agenda if he wins a clear, fresh mandate for another four-year term, which would prove to the hardliners that the public wants change.

"Iranians want to be free and live freely. They are not against the Islamic Republic. People will continue to fight for their rights," a senior official in Rouhani's government said on condition of anonymity.

But international rights groups and activists in Iran saythere were few, if any, moves to bring about greater political and social freedoms during Rouhani's first term. Dozens of activists, journalists, bloggers and artists were jailed on political grounds.

Rouhani often suggests that he has no control over such arrests, carried out by the mostly hardline judiciary and the Revolutionary Guards, a powerful military force.

"I have lost my hope over Rouhani's ability to reform the country. His main focus has been economy, not improving civil rights," said Reza, 28, a reformist who was jailed briefly after the 2009 election and asked that his surname not be published for security reasons.

The president has had some success on promises to loosen Internet restrictions, but access to social media remains officially blocked, although Rouhani, Khamenei and other officials have their own Twitter accounts.

Human Rights Watch said last year that Rouhani had failed to deliver on his promise of greater respect for civil and political rights. The New York-based Committee to Protect Journalists in 2015 said that more journalists were in jail in Iran than any country other than China and Egypt.

The total number of political prisoners held in Iranian jails has not been disclosed. About a dozen people who also hold other nationalities have been jailed for what rights groups consider political offences.

Whoever wins Irans presidential election should prioritize improving the countrys dismal human rights situation," said Louis Charbonneau, U.N. director at Human Rights Watch.

"Iranhas maintained the highest per capita execution rate in the world for years ... it put 530 people to death last year, many for drug offences and a number of them minors."

Rouhani benefits because reformist voters have no other choice on the ballot, where candidates are vetted by a hardline body.

Reformist voters will have to judge him in the context of what is possible under the system, said Saeed Leylaz, a prominent economist imprisoned under Ahmadinejad for criticising economic policy, who is now close to Rouhani's government.

"Rouhani's failure to fully deliver his promises on social reforms will impact the vote ... but Iranians are well aware of his limitations and his achievements."

(Writing by Parisa Hafezi; editing by Peter Graff)

WASHINGTON U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday he will travel to Saudi Arabia and Israel this month, kicking off his first foreign trip, where he will work to reinvigorate traditional alliances in the region.

UNITED NATIONS Iran said on Thursday it is ready for talks with Saudi Arabia to promote regional peace despite "unlawful and inflammatory" remarks by the Saudi deputy crown prince, who vowed to protect his kingdom from what he called Iranian efforts to dominate the Muslim world.

CAIRO The man who describes himself as thepioneer of Egypt's mannequin industry believes his career is almost over, killed by high costs and cheaper Chinese imports favored by many clothing stores.

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Iran reformists to back Rouhani re-election, though some voters grow cool - Reuters

New York Times

Dialogue With Iran Is Impossible, Saudi Arabia's Defense Minister Says New York Times BEIRUT, Lebanon Saudi Arabia's powerful deputy crown prince slammed the door Tuesday on the prospect of dialogue with Iran, the kingdom's regional rival, accusing it of following an extremist ideology and seeking to take over the Muslim world. Powerful Saudi prince says no space for dialogue with IranWashington Post Iran is seeking 'to control Islamic world', says Saudi Arabian princeThe Guardian Powerful Saudi Prince Sees No Chance for Dialogue With IranU.S. News & World Report Daily Mail -Khaleej Times all 141 news articles »

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Dialogue With Iran Is Impossible, Saudi Arabia's Defense Minister Says - New York Times

A proposal to transfer control of a Red Sea port could have wide-ranging effects on regional tension.

If President Trump travels to Riyadh later this month, as reported, he will find that the six leaders of the Gulf Coordination Council (GCC) countries hold widely divergent views on Iran, the extent of the Iranian threat, and how to resolve the conflict inYemen.

This divergence has made it difficult to coordinate on a policy to challenge Irans bad behavior without tipping the region into open conflict. So far, such efforts have focused on improving regional defense capabilities and U.S.-GCC security cooperation. In particular, the Trump administration has indicated it will help the Saudi-led coalition fight the pro-Iranian Houthi insurgency in Yemen by providing advanced munitions as well as logistics and intelligence support.

But Oman has been a particularly reluctant partner in the GCCs desire to confront Iran, and even the other non-Saudi GCC states favor a reduction in regionaltensions.

Iranian President Rouhani and Foreign Minister Zarif are maneuvering to exploit these rifts, seeking to isolate the Saudis from their smaller Gulf partners. But Iran itself is beset by internal policy differences over how to deal with the Gulf states. And as presidential elections approach, Rouhani is aware that heightened regional tensions weaken his hand with the hard-liners who surround Ayatollah Khamenei. Cooling the temperature in the Gulf could be his best bet to securere-election.

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Yemen may be the key to solving the GCCs Iran problem. After last years Kuwait round of Yemeni negotiations ended in stalemate, the Saudi-led coalition determined that only a shift in the military balance would bring the Houthis and their allies, loyalists of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, back to the negotiating table. A strategy was derived to push the Houthis off the Red Sea coast the Yemeni terminus of the arms-smuggling route that begins in Iran and seize the vital port ofHodeidah.

More recently, however, concerns over the complexity of a military operation to drive an entrenched force from a city of at least one million people has led the coalition to re-consider its position. Yemens Hadi government, along with the Saudis and Emiratis, is signaling its willingness to accept a peaceful transfer of the city and port to a neutral third party. That party would be responsible for repairing damaged port facilities, allowing unfettered access to humanitarian relief organizations, and ensuring that the port would no longer be used for arms smuggling. There are encouraging signs that Houthi and Saleh forces may agree to thisproposal.

With just weeks to go before the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, an agreement to return the port of Hodeidah to full operation would be very good news for the long-suffering Yemeni population. According to UN estimates, 70 to 80 percent of the countrys humanitarian deliveries and an even greater share of commercial food and fuel imports come through theport.

Even more importantly, an agreement among the parties to transfer control of the port to a neutral party might spark a return to UN-led negotiations. UN Special Envoy Ismail Ould Chaikh Ahmed is seeking an agreement among the parties to allow the government to return to the capital, Sanaa, and resume functioning while negotiations continue over restructuring the interim government and concluding the political transition under the terms of the GCC Initiative. A side agreement to restore functionality to Yemens Central Bank could pump billions of Yemeni rials into the economy and help ordinary Yemenis provide for their essentialneeds.

Oman, which alone among the GCC states has maintained a continuing dialogue with the Houthis, can play an important role in pressing for this outcome. Moreover, Omans constructive relationship with Iran can also be an important lever to secure Iranian tacit cooperation. Although Iran doesnt control the Houthis, Irans encouragement to respond positively to the coalition initiative and agree to work with the UN Special Envoy can tip the scales toward the desiredoutcome.

Using Omani diplomacy to achieve broader GCC goals in Yemen, and to ensure that the country is not a continuing source of instability and insecurity in the Arabian Peninsula, can thus contribute to reconciling disparate GCC views on managing Iran while bringing Yemens two-year old conflict to a peacefulconclusion.

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Yemen Could Be the Key to Solving the Iran Problem - Defense One

BEIRUT Iran will provide military advisers to Syria for as long as necessary in support of President Bashar al Assad's forces, a senior commander in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards was quoted on Tuesday as saying.

Iran has provided military support to Assad's forces since at least 2012, but initially did not comment publicly on its role. But as the military support increased and Iranian casualties also rose, officials began to speak more openly.

"The advisory help isn't only in the field of planning but also on techniques and tactics," the Fars news agency quoted Mohammad Pakpour, head of the Revolutionary Guard ground forces, as saying. "And because of this the forces have to be present on the battlefield."

"We will continue our advisory help as long as they (the Syrians) need it," he added.

An Iranian official said late last year that more than 1,000 Iranians had been killed in the Syrian civil war. These include a handful of senior commanders of the Revolutionary Guards, according to Iranian media reports.

Iran has helped to train and organize thousands of Shi'ite militia fighters from Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan in the Syrian conflict. Fighters from Lebanon's Hezbollah are also working closely with Iranian military commanders in Syria.

Pakpour said the Revolutionary Guards' ground forces were in Syria to help the Quds Force, the branch of the Guards responsible for operations outside of Iran's own borders.

"There is very close coordination between the Syrian army and the Revolutionary Guards advisers," Pakpour said.

Iran and Russia are Assad's main allies in the conflict, while the United States, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Arab states support opposition groups seeking to overthrow him.

Russia's intervention in the conflict has tilted it decisively back into Assad's favor.

(Reporting By Babak Dehghanpisheh; Editing by Gareth Jones)

PARIS France's presidential rivals, centrist Emmanuel Macron and the far-right's Marine Le Pen, go head-to-head on Wednesday in a televised debate in which sparks are sure to fly as they fight their corner in a last encounter before Sunday's runoff vote.

WASHINGTON/MOSCOW U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday moved to ease the tension from U.S. air strikes in April against Russian ally Syria, expressing a desire for a Syrian ceasefire and safe zones for the civil war's refugees.

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Iran to continue sending military advisers to Syria: Guards commander - Reuters