Mediaboss Marketing

Despite President Trumps reluctance to get deeply involved in the Syrian civil war, the United States now finds itself in the middle of an escalating battle in the countrys south that last week led to a clash between the U.S. military and Iranian-backed pro-government forces. If he can seize the opportunity, Trump could deal a blow to Iranian regional influence and help save Syria in the process.

To hear the Trump administration tell it, the coalition airstrike May 18 near the al-Tanf base on Syrias border with Jordan and Iraq was a one-off event. A statement from U.S. Central Command said that pro-regime forces had crossed into an established de-confliction zone, posing a threat to opposition forces and the U.S. troops who are training them.

But the skirmish near al-Tanf was not an isolated incident. According to officials, experts and rebel leaders on the ground, an ongoing and rapidly accelerating confrontation in that area was triggered by an offensive by Iranian-backed militias. Iran is trying to establish strategic control over territory creating a corridor from Lebanon and Syria through Baghdad to Tehran.

If successful, the Iranian campaign would drastically reshape the regional security situation, harm the fight against the Islamic State in the nearby city of Deir al-Zour and directly undermine U.S. efforts to train and equip an indigenous Sunni Arab fighting force, which is essential to establishing long-term stability.

In short, its a fight that the United States cannot and should not avoid. Its also an opportunity for Trump to accomplish what his administration says it wants to do in the Middle East: Push back against Iranian aggression and expansionism.

So far, the White House doesnt see it in that light. An official told me that the decision to strike regime and Iranian-backed forces last week was made by military commanders on the ground, not by the White House. The commanders have the authority to strike whenever they believe U.S. troops are under threat, the official said, stating that there has been no change in U.S. policy in Syria.

There was no large, big-picture change that resulted in this scenario, the official said.

The strikes did change Tehrans calculus. The Middle East Institutes Charles Lister said that the bombs hit a militia backed by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Forces called Kataib Imam Ali. After the strikes, the Iranian FARS news agency reported that Iran will send 3,000 Hezbollah fighters to the al-Tanf region to thwart a U.S. plot.

A Syrian opposition rebel leader who works with the U.S. military said that while there are a mix of regime, Iranian and militia forces fighting in the area, the Iranians are in command of the campaign. Their first goal is to establish control over a security triangle that would give them free movement between the eastern Syrian towns of Palmyra and Deir al-Zour and Baghdad.

The Iranians second goal is to block the U.S.-supported rebels in al-Tanf from Deir al-Zour. If the rebels take the city from the Islamic State, it would be a huge boon for the Sunni opposition to the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Two Syrian rebel groups opened up a front against the Iranian-backed forces about two weeks ago, in response to the Iranian campaign, the rebel leader said. One of them is working directly with the U.S. military. The other is supported by the military operations center led by the CIA and allies in Jordan.

Even absent public acknowledgment from Washington, the rebel groups believe they have tacit support from the United States to prevent Iran and the regime from taking over the area. That belief is uniting rebel groups on the ground, who have long wanted to fight Iran and the regime, in addition to the Islamic State.

Those who support the Syrian opposition in Washington are also noticing a shift in the U.S. approach toward confronting Iran in Syria. Whether that represents mission creep or a deliberate change in approach on a policy level is unclear and ultimately irrelevant. Perhaps by accident, Trump is moving toward a Syria policy that is tougher on Iran and the Assad regime, and its having real effects on the ground.

The United States has two major adversaries in Syria, that is Iran and ISIS. Both represent huge risks to U.S. national security and interests in the region, said Mouaz Moustafa, executive director of the Syrian Emergency Task Force.

The battle for Syrias south is on, and the Trump team must decide if the United States will play a decisive role. Trump could fulfill his promises to thwart Iran and bring greater stability to Syria if he acts fast.

Read more from Josh Rogins archive, follow him on Twitter or subscribe to his updates on Facebook.

More here:
How Trump could deal a blow to Iran and help save Syria - The ... - Washington Post

Sign up to receive FirstFT by emailhere

Ford is replacing its chief executive in a shake-up designed to reverse a plummeting share price and bolster development of electric and autonomous vehicles. The US auto company has yet to confirm the replacement of Mark Fields and other executives, but an announcement is expected today. He is likely to be replaced by James Hackett, who currently heads the companys smart mobility unit, which includes driverless technology.

The global auto industry is facing increasing disruption from Silicon Valley, which is spending millions on developing technology for driverless and electric vehicles. The cost of owning an electric car is predicted to be the same as owning a traditional vehicle as early as next year, according to some analysts, prompting manufacturers to shift resources in an effort to adapt to the change. (FT, Forbes)

Trumps battle cry on Iran The US president attacked Iran in a speech to Muslim leaders in Saudi Arabia, blaming the regime for most of the instability in the region. It came just one day after Iranians voted overwhelmingly for re-engagement and openness with the world. Tehran said the US should worry about another 9/11 instead. (FT, Independent)

Divine winner The Church of Englands 7.9bn investment fund disclosed returns of 17.1 per cent last year, making it the worlds best-performing endowment fund. Over 10 years, it outsripped Yale University endowments annual 8.1 per cent returns. Fund director Tom Joy says active investment was the key to success although some suspect inspiration from a higher being. (FT)

Barclays hits back at prankstersThe British bank has tightened its email security after a prankster posed as its chairman and sent a series of messages to chief executive Jes Staley. Mr Staley was heavily criticised at a recent shareholder meeting for attempting to unmask a whistleblower. (FT)

The great olive oil crisis The price of extra virgin olive oil has surged by almost a quarter this year, as drought afflicts production at major growers around the Mediterranean. World production is forecast to fall 14 per cent. Adverse weather events have been affecting olive oil production in the region more frequently, agricultural and weather experts have noted. (FT)

North Koreas secret cyber warfare cell Unit 180 is thought to have launched some of the most daring and successful cyber attacks in recent years, and there is evidence that could link it to the WannaCry attack. Heresa look inside. Meanwhile, Pyongyangtest-fired another ballistic missile on Sunday, in defiance of threats of tougher UN sanctions. It claims it can now mass produce intermediate-range missiles. (Reuters, NAR)

Athens calls on creditors to strike a deal Greeces finance minister said his country had done its bit, most would say more than its bit, and now it was time for IMF officials and eurozone finance ministers to make a deal that would allow it to honour billions of euros in debt repayment when they meet. (FT)

Trump to outline Mideast peace deal When Donald Trump arrives in Israel and the West Bank today, he will outline what he has called theultimate peace deal. Meanwhile, an angry Benjamin Netanyahu has ordered his ministers to attend the airport reception for Mr Trump, after discovering a number had planned to skip it. (FT, Guardian)

Keep up with the important business, economic and political stories in the coming days with the FTsWeek Ahead.

Too scared to spend Latino consumers in the US are spooked by Donald Trumps immigration policies. Families once willing to fork out $5,000 or more on baby showers are hoarding cash in case they or their relatives are swept up in raids. (FT)

Wanted: princes and princesses The engagement of Japanese imperial princess Mako to her floppy-haired university sweetheart last week has highlighted a tricky issue: the chrysanthemum throne isrunning out of royals. (FT)

The quants now run Wall Street For decades, investors imagined a time when data-driven traders would dominate financial markets. That day has arrived. (WSJ)

Fetishising crisis There is a virulent strain of management thinking that sees every crisis as an opportunity. In fact, it is mainly consultants who benefit. Instead, good leaders should avoid crisis in the first place, writes Andrew Hill. (FT)

The mystery of the wasting house cats Forty years ago, feline hyperthyroidism was impossibly rare today,its an epidemic. Research suggests common household chemicals may be to be blame so what are they doing to humans? (NYT)

The week ahead Vanessa Kortekaas provides a briefing of thestories to watch in the week ahead, including US president Donald Trump travelling to Brussels, the release of eurozone PMI data and first-quarter results from jewellery-maker Tiffany. (FT)

Sample the FTs top stories for a week

You select the topic, we deliver the news.

Excerpt from:
Daily briefing: Ford to replace chief, Trump attacks Iran, fetishising crisis - Financial Times

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and his archconservative challenger held dueling rallies in northeastern Iran on Wednesday, the final day of campaigning before a closely watched election.

With voters preparing to go to the polls Friday, Rouhani is a slight favorite over Ebrahim Raisi, a former attorney general who is custodian of Irans most important Shiite Muslim shrine in the northeastern city of Mashhad, where both candidates held rallies.

As fears over a confrontation with the Trump administration have given way to more mundane economic concerns, Iranian voters will choose between Rouhanis promises to create jobs by continuing a tentative rapprochement with the West and Raisis pledges to dole out cash subsidies to the poor.

Irans quadrennial presidential elections are heavily choreographed by the theocracy. The slate of candidates is determined by an unelected, 12-member Guardian Council and the usual restrictions on dress code and free speech are somewhat relaxed to generate enthusiasm among voters.

High turnout at the polls more than 60% of eligible voters have cast ballots in every Iranian presidential election since 1997 confers legitimacy on the political process, and by extension the mullahs leadership.

After two candidates from a field of six dropped out in recent days part of the choreography the election has turned into a two-man race between Rouhani, a relative moderate on social issues, and Raisi, a religious conservative who is close to Irans ruling clerics.

Although there are few reliable opinion polls, Rouhani appears in good position to win reelection. Every Iranian president since 1981 has secured a second term.

But there are questions about the intensity of Rouhanis support as voters weigh his signature achievement the 2015 deal he struck with six world powers to curb Irans disputed nuclear program in exchange for an easing of international sanctions.

While many Iranians supported Rouhanis effort to end their countrys isolation and avert military conflict with the United States, there is growing frustration that the results of the agreement including an increase in oil exports have not translated to real economic benefits for most people.

In one presidential debate, Raisi likened the agreement to a check the government has been unable to cash. But just as President Trump has failed to tear up what he once called the worst deal ever, Raisi has not indicated he would back out of the agreement if elected.

Analysts say Rouhani faces flagging enthusiasm among his urban, educated base because he has been unsuccessful in relaxing the rules surrounding Iranians social lives, including dress codes and speech restrictions. And an angry protest that greeted Rouhani when he visited the site of a deadly coal mine explosion this month signaled discontent in the provinces.

There may be a lot of voter apathy in Iran right now, said Alireza Nader, a senior policy analyst at the Rand Corp. Its not clear if a great majority of people are going to come out and vote for Rouhani. Hes the most attractive candidate when you put him up against Raisi. But he has vulnerabilities.

If turnout among Irans 56 million eligible voters is low, analysts said Rouhani could struggle to win a majority Friday. That would open the door to a runoff election in which Irans ultra-conservative deep state, including the powerful Revolutionary Guards, could mobilize support for Raisi.

The little-known hard-liner who is best known for presiding over the 1988 executions of thousands of political prisoners, Raisi is widely seen as the preferred candidate of and possible successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

An archetype of the theocracy, Raisi nevertheless has run as a populist, promising to revive cash handouts in a bid to appeal to the working-class supporters of former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Most experts agree the policy would return Iran to the economically disastrous days of the isolationist Ahmadinejad, but the promises have gained resonance in a country with stifling unemployment.

At a pro-Raisi rally in Tehran this week, low-income and conservative supporters said Rouhani had sold out Iran by signing the nuclear deal and has gotten little foreign investment or jobs in return.

Others said Rouhanis promises of social freedoms were leading to moral lassitude.

My husband is sexually provoked by these ladies in their tight dresses, said Noreyye Mahdi, a 26-year-old draped in a full-length black abaya on a warm afternoon. I hope Mr. Raisi will contain them. And he has promised to provide jobs for the unemployed.

The avuncular Rouhani has tried to rally his base by promising further social freedoms and criticizing Irans security forces for attempting to sabotage the nuclear deal in part by displaying a missile with the sign, Death to Israel, during a recent military parade.

His campaign issued an economic policy statement that criticized cash giveaways as unfeasible, while casting himself as a pragmatist focused on achievable goals, such as controlling inflation and increasing economic production.

Overall Rouhani has been a candidate whose message has been, implicitly, that if you dont vote for me, things could get even worse, Nader said.

At a spirited campaign rally last week at a basketball arena in Tehran, thousands of Rouhani supporters demanded the release of opposition leaders who have been under house arrest since 2009 election protests were violently crushed by state security forces.

The arena is named Hijab, for the Islamic veil, yet many of the attendees were women who eschewed the mandatory headscarf a sign of the greater social freedoms of election time.

Rouhani promised to have the remaining sanctions against Iran lifted a long shot because many stem from Iranian security forces ballistic missile program and support for militant groups. To cheers from the crowd, he promised a further easing of social restrictions.

I have honored all the promises I campaigned on four years ago, Rouhani said. If I have failed to deliver on some of my promises, it is because they [the hard-liners] have prevented me from doing so.

For young, Western-oriented Tehran residents, Rouhani remains popular.

Reihane Taravati, a 26-year-old who was among several Iranians arrested in 2014 for participating in an online video set to Pharrell Williams hit summer anthem Happy, credited Rouhani with securing her release after he tweeted, Happiness is our peoples right.

He has saved us from war, and if he is out of office, we dont know what will happen to us, Taravati said. If the extremist candidate wins, then we will definitely face war. Trump in the White House and a hard-line president here in Tehran then, bang!

ALSO

Iran convicted two U.S. citizens of espionage. Their relatives are pressing Trump for help

Trump campaigned on 'America First.' Now he's getting ready for his first trip overseas

Jordan looks to repeal long-reviled rape-marriage law

Special correspondent Mostaghim reported from Tehran and Times staff writer Bengali from Mumbai, India.

shashank.bengali@latimes.com

Follow @SBengali on Twitter for more news from South Asia

Link:
Iran's President Rouhani Is The Favorite In Friday's ...

Israel has often had hostile relations with its Muslim neighbors. But right now its greatest enemy may be Iran, which has one of the most powerful militaries in the region and has for years been openly hostile toward the very existence of Israel.

The situation may only be getting worse, with Iran seemingly on the rise since the Obama administration hatched a deal with the country that lifted international sanctions and gave the Islamic Republic approximately $100 billion in frozen assets.

Israels relations with Iran have changed since the Jewish states founding in 1948.Up until 1979, the two countries had relatively close ties.With Israel sometimes at war with its Arab neighbors, the non-Arab Iran was an important ally.

Gulf states warm to Israel, see possibility of Palestinian peace deal

But in 1979, the Islamic Revolution, with its leader Ayatollah Khomeini, took over in Iran, and Israel became the enemy. Iran closed the Israeli embassy and cut off diplomatic relations. It referred to Israel as The Little Satan. (The Great Satan was reserved for the United States.)

Still, even with officially hostile relations, Israel supported Iran in its war against Iraq from 1980 to 1988, selling it arms and even destroying Iraqs Osirak nuclear reactor in a surprise air strike in 1981.

Then, in 1989, the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei assumed power and relations took a turn for the worse. Khamenei referred to Israel as a cancerous tumor in the heart of the Islamic world.

While Israel and Iran have not had open military clashes, they have battled each other through proxy fights. In the past few decades, Iran has sent weapons and hundreds of millions of dollars to anti-Israel terrorist groups, in particular Hezbollah and Hamas.The Israeli military has spent much time preventing or responding to attacks from these groups.

There have also long been rumors that Israel might strike one of Irans nuclear facilities, but so far this hasnt happened.

Netanyahu: US, Israel have 'grand mission' to confront Iran threat

Nevertheless, Israel has fought against Iran in more surreptitious ways, particularly regarding attempts to stop or slow down the nations development of nuclear weapons.

For instance, in 2008 to 2010, the malicious Stuxnet computer worm, developed by Israel and the United States, severely disrupted Irans nuclear program.

Also, starting in 2010, a number of Irans nuclear scientists were assassinated, and its generally believed Israel and its intelligence agency Mossad were behind the killings.

Today, some fear if Iran becomes more powerfuland especially if it attains nuclear weaponsclashes may escalate.

At present, in addition to bad blood between Iran and Israel, the Islamic world itself is split, with centuries-old Islamic denominational strife coming to the fore. Iran is the heart of the minority Shia denomination, while most of the Middle East is Sunni, with its center arguably being in Saudi Arabia, home of Mecca, Islams holiest city.

Iran and Saudi Arabias relations have become increasingly strained, and many Arab nations fear the rise in influence of Iran. This may cause them to look toward Israel, with its powerful military, as a helpful entity that contains Irans power and perhaps even stabilizes the region.

Follow this link:
Israels public enemy No. 1 may be Iran and tensions are ...

ISTANBUL Iranian President Hassan Rouhani was reelected to a second term by a landslide, the interior minister declared Saturday, presenting him a resounding endorsement of his plans to end Iran's pariah status and rejoin the global economy.

With 57 percent of the vote, Rouhani defeated his hard-line rival, Ebrahim Raisi, who had the backing of the ruling clergy and allied security forces. He also won a clear mandate to push through domestic reforms and pursue talks with the West, building on the nuclear deal he negotiated with world powers. That agreement, which Rouhani and his cabinet clinched during his first term, constrains Iran's nuclear program in exchange for international sanctions relief.

The landslide victory gives Rouhani a mandate he did not have during his first term, said Cliff Kupchan, chairman of Eurasia Group, a political risk firm.

He'll remain a centrist, Kupchan said. But will be more aggressive in pursuing reforms.

Rouhani and his reformist backers also dealt a devastating blow to Iranian conservatives, most of whom supported Raisi and scoff at the soft power of the incumbent leader's diplomacy.

Turnout reached roughly 70 percent, with about 40 million Iranians casting ballots nationwide Friday. At stake was whether Iran would continue to open up to the world or return to the diplomatic and economic isolation of the past.

Raisi and his supporters appeared to favor policies associated with former president and populist firebrand Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. It was under his leadership that the United Nations began sanctioning Iran for failing to halt its uranium enrichment program.

[Former president Ahmadinejad wanted to run. Irans election vetters said no. ]

But while Rouhani managed to remove sanctions, economic growth remains slow and unemployment high. Many Iranians still live in poverty, and Raisi, who heads Iran's largest religious endowment, seized on the discontent to appeal to the poor and run a populist campaign. The effort, though, ultimately failed.

Despite poor economic conditions, [Iranians] said no to populism and empty promises of government subsidies, said Reza H. Akbari, a researcher on Iranian politics at the Institute for War and Peace Reporting.

This is especially refreshing given the recent rising populist trends in Europe and the U.S.," he said. The Iranian system is far from fair and balanced. However, Iranians demonstrated their belief that the most effective path to reform is ... through the ballot box.

Iran's president commands the state's vast bureaucracy and also has the ability to shape foreign and domestic policy. But all matters of the state must eventually be approved by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Guardian Council, a body of theocrats.

There were worries before the vote that Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guard, Iran's shadowy but most powerful security institution, would rig the results to ensure a Raisi win. In the 2009 election, widespread suspicions of fraud led to a grass-roots protest movement by reformists against the state and then-president Ahmadinejad. The demonstrations were brutally quashed, and the opposition leaders including Mir Hossein Mousavi, his wife Zahra Rahnavard, and Mehdi Karroubi remain under house arrest.

Its very noteworthy that Khamenei did not force a Raisi win, Kupchan said. There has been speculation that Khamenei had chosen Raisi as his potential successor.

The erstwhile successor to the leader took a body blow tonight, he said. And the path to a more moderate successor to Khamenei is now at least somewhat clearer.

On the international front, Iran will have to confront the more bellicose administration of President Trump. As presidential vote in Iran took place, Trump landed Saturday in Saudi Arabia, which is Iran's main rival. His administration has placed the nuclear deal under interagency review and recently imposed new sanctions on Iran for its ballistic missile program.

[Trump campaigned against Muslims, but will preach tolerance in Saudi speech]

Still, Rouhani has pledged to continue to negotiate with the United States to persuade them to lift non-nuclear sanctions. Despite the tensions, Rouhani sees Iran as benefiting from the West and from foreign investment. And, apparently, Iranian voters agree.

Iranian voters sent a resounding message to the Trump administration, Akbari said. They are committed to the path of diplomacy and moderation. They stand behind Rouhani's attempts to break the country's isolation.

At home, Rouhani will probably struggle with more progressive political reform. He has failed to secure the release of Mousavi, Rahnavard and Karroubi from house arrest. Iran enjoys greater access to social media and the Internet, and reformist publications and Facebook pages flourished. But activists and journalists are still detained and jailed. Even with his strong mandate, it is unclear how much he will be able to achieve.

Rouhani will continue to face an uphill climb on political reform, Kupchan said.

According to Akbari, The moderate and reformist elements within the society are fully aware of Rouhani's shortcomings when it comes to human rights and guaranteeing social freedoms.

However, they decided to give him a second chance to deliver on his promises, he said.

Read more

Analysis: No matter who wins Irans election, hell have a fight with the supreme leader

Analysis: Whats really at stake in Irans presidential election

Opinion: Theres no clear winner for America in Irans presidential election

Todays coverage from Post correspondents around the world

Like Washington Post World on Facebook and stay updated on foreign news

Original post:
Iranian President Rouhani wins reelection by a landslide - Washington Post