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JERUSALEM (AP) The long-delayed resumption of nuclear talks with Iran has gotten off to a rough start with Iran digging in and its negotiating partners openly voicing frustration and pessimism.

After five days of talks in Vienna ended last week, the United States said Iran did not appear to be serious. European diplomats accused Iran of backtracking on previous promises. Even Russia, which has stronger relations with Iran, questioned Irans commitment to the process. Israel, an outside observer with a stake in the outcome of the talks, has ramped up its rhetoric and is dispatching two top security officials to Washington for consultations.

I call on every country negotiating with Iran in Vienna to take a strong line and make it clear to Iran that they cannot enrich uranium and negotiate at the same time, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said Sunday. Iran must begin to pay a price for its violations.

Perhaps the most encouraging outcome of last weeks talks was an agreement to continue talking. When negotiators reconvene in coming days, it could become clearer if the wide gaps visible last week were a sign of posturing or a serious crisis.

The negotiations seek to revive the 2015 nuclear accord between Iran and six world powers. That agreement, spearheaded by President Barack Obama, granted Iran relief from crippling sanctions in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program.

But three years later, President Donald Trump, with strong encouragement from then-Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, withdrew from the deal, causing it to unravel. Since then, Iran has stepped up its nuclear activities -- amassing a stockpile of highly enriched uranium that goes well beyond the bounds of the accord.

Iran last week took a hard stance, suggesting everything discussed in previous rounds of diplomacy could be renegotiated. In the midst of the negotiations, the U.N.s nuclear watchdog confirmed that Iran had begun enriching uranium up to 20% purity at its underground facility at Fordo a site where enrichment is not permitted under the deal.

Despite Irans claims that its nuclear activities are for peaceful purposes only, the continued advances in its atomic program have further raised the stakes.

Last weeks talks in Vienna came after a hiatus of more than five months and were the first in which Irans new hard-line government participated. The United States, no longer a party to the agreement, was not in the room and negotiated remotely through mediators.

A senior U.S. State Department official said over the weekend that negotiators had expected Iran to show seriousness at the talks. He said that even Russia and China, important trading outlets for Iran that have traditionally taken a softer line, were concerned about the prospects for a deal.

Every day that goes by is a day where we come closer to the conclusion that they dont have in mind a return to the deal, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to brief reporters on the U.S. assessment.

European negotiators also expressed frustration. In a joint statement, senior diplomats from Germany, Britain and France said Iran has fast-forwarded its nuclear program and backtracked on diplomatic progress.

Unclear how these new gaps can be closed in a realistic time frame on the basis of Iranian drafts, they said.

Mikhail Ulyanov, a senior Russian diplomat in Vienna, said that Iran had offered a radical revision of previous understandings.

Technically, amendments are always possible, he said. However, it is desirable that such amendments ... do not turn into a roadblock to progress.

On Sunday, Irans Foreign Ministry issued a nine-page document that appeared to slightly step back from its tough positions.

Other parties only need to show political determination and express readiness to take necessary practical steps, the document read. Then, ways will be opened for the conclusion of a deal and settlement of differences.

But the document gave few specifics on what Iran might have in mind.

That is unlikely to satisfy Israel, which has returned to its role as possible spoiler.

Israel considers Iran to be its greatest enemy and it strongly opposed the 2015 deal.

It says it wants an improved deal that places tighter restrictions on Irans nuclear program and addresses Irans long-range missile program and its support for hostile proxies along Israels borders.

Israel also says that the negotiations must be accompanied by a credible military threat to ensure that Iran does not delay indefinitely.

Bennett said Israel was using the time between rounds to persuade the Americans to use a different toolkit against Irans nuclear program, without elaborating.

The head of Israels Mossad intelligence service, David Barnea, was traveling to Washington on Sunday, and Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz, a former military chief, heads there later this week.

Israels figurehead president, Isaac Herzog, delivered an uncharacteristically blunt message Sunday as he welcomed the new American ambassador to Israel, Thomas Nides.

If the international community does not take a vigorous stance on this issue, Israel will do so. Israel will protect itself, Herzog said.

Despite Israels support for Trumps withdrawal in 2018, prominent voices in the country are now saying in retrospect that the move was a blunder.

Former Prime Minister Ehud Barak wrote in the Yediot Ahronot daily Sunday that pulling out was a delusional decision that allowed the Iranians to move forward quickly in the direction of becoming a nuclear threshold state.

Barak, who reportedly favored a military strike when he served as Netanyahus defense minister early last decade, said Netanyahu, who is now Israels opposition leader, had failed to put together with the U.S. a Plan B in the form of a surgical military operation.

Over the past decade, Iran has greatly complicated any military operation by scattering its nuclear sites and hiding some deep underground. Israeli officials insist military action is still feasible.

Yoel Guzansky, a senior fellow and Iran expert at Israels Institute for National Security Studies, said the Israeli threats should be taken seriously, especially in light of questions over Americas willingness to use force in the region.

I think the United States doesnt understand our red lines, he said. They think were bluffing, but were not.

Over the weekend, Iran said it had tested a surface-to-air missile defense system near its Natanz nuclear facility. Late Saturday, people leaving nearby saw a light in the sky and heard a loud explosion.

Any threat from the enemies will be met with a decisive and firm response, state TV quoted Lt. Cmdr. Ali Moazeni as saying.

___

Associated Press writers Jon Gambrell in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, and Nasser Karimi in Tehran, Iran, contributed reporting.

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As Iran nuclear talks hit snags, Israel seeks harder US line ...

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The Seventh round of negotiations to save the 2015 Iran nuclear deal broke off last week, with Western officials expressing dismay on Friday at blatant demands by the Iranian regime. Many observers deduced that nuclear negotiations have failed.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Reuters that Iran right now does not seem to be serious about doing whats necessary to return to compliance, which is why we ended this round of talks in Vienna.

According to Reuters, the European powers expressed disappointment and concern over the regimes demands which they believe were incompatible with the deals terms or went beyond them.

The Iranian regimes top negotiator, Ali Bagheri Kani, underlined yesterday that Tehran Will not back down from its demands. Tehran demands that the U.S. lift all sanctions on the regime and return to the deal before the clerical regime would honor its commitments.

Tehran has been violating the deal since day one, even before the U.S. nixing.

On February 14, 2019, Newsmax reported that the regime has produced excess heavy water, illegally,at least twice, which they sold for profit, and it has exceeded the limits on advanced centrifuge research and development, by assembling more than a half dozen IR-8 rotor assemblies and operating 13-15 IR-6 centrifuges in a single cascade.

The Institute for Science and International Security reported on December 8, 2015, that Tehran has violatedthe deal by refusing to fully cooperate with the IAEA investigating the Possible Military Dimensions of the nuclear program.

In 2017, the Iranian Resistance revealed information showing the Iranian regimes research and development and nuclear activities were continuing at the Parchin military site, located southwest of the Iranian capital Tehran and out of reach of IAEA inspectors.

In 2019, Ali Akbar Salehi, then the regimes head of the Atomic Energy Organization,said: They thought that they won the negotiation, he said of Western signatories to the JCPOA. But we had a countermeasure, and while we proceeded with the case, they didnt achieve what they planned for, and we did not become trapped in the enrichment deadlock.

He had previously boasted to Iranian state media that the regime authorities had conspired to deceive the IAEA regarding the Arak heavy water plant, which produces plutonium that could be used in building nuclear weapons.

On October 17, 2021, Mahmoud Nabaviyan, a member of the Special Commission for the Investigation of the JCPOA at the regimes parliament,claimed: How important is the (Arak) reactor to us? It produced 9 kilograms of plutonium a year, enough for a bomb. Depending on their technology, countries can produce a bomb with three to seven kilograms of plutonium. Having this reactor would send a message to Israel that if you make a mistake against Iran, we have whats needed (to retaliate)!

On February 22, 2021, the regimes Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had said: Irans enrichment threshold will not be 20%, and the purity can increase as needed anywhere in the country, i.e., Enrichment may increase up to 60% for nuclear propulsion or other tasks.

In April, thegovernment of Hassan Rouhani officiallyannouncedit has begun enriching uranium up to 60% purity.

In the latest development, On the eve of a new round of nuclear talks in Vienna, Fereydoun Abbasi, a parliament deputy and the former head of the regimes Atomic Energy Organization, confessed in an interview with a state-run daily, Iran, thatFakhrizadeh, the assassinated former head of the regimes nuclear weapons project, had created a system to produce a nuclear bomb.

Once again, the facts above underline that JCPOA had indeed failed in limiting Tehrans nuclear capabilities.

Thus, the current goal of reviving the already-dead nuclear deal is a lost cause. Khamenei and his regime intend to buy time to develop nuclear weapons. While it might look sophisticated, a closer look at recent domestic and international developments shows why Tehran is racing toward a nuclear bomb.

In June 2021, Khamenei chose Ebrahim Raisi, or the hanging judge, as his regimes president to close ranks. Raisi is a known criminal and has been placed under sanctions. Soon after Raisi was selected, Tehran left the talks in Vienna and rejoined the negotiations following months of delay.

The regime faces a restive society that has never accepted the mullahs backward rule. By closing ranks in the regime, Khamenei hasdecidedto increase domestic oppression and pave the way for the development of a nuclear weapon to advance its regional meddling, terrorism, and warmongering.

However, it should be noted that sanctions have indeed crippled the regimes economy. Tehran desperately needs money to fund its illicit activities and proxy terrorist groups. The government expenditures have increased by %40 due to the regime mounting support of militia groups. In September, the state-run Arman daily confirmed that the regimes activities have not decreased.

Irans oil-dependent economy is seriously hurt by sanctions, in addition to the countrys oil industry infrastructure being deteriorated. And above all, the regimes institutionalized corruption and other priorities increase the economic pressure on people.

The Iranian regimes nuclear program has resulted in nothing but misery for people. It is estimated that the cost of the nuclear program should be estimated at between 1.5 to 2 trillion dollars. It seems that the initial assessment by the Budget and Planning Organizations expert was not far from reality, the state-run Arman daily wrote on Saturday, quoting Hanizadeh. In fact, the root of the misunderstandings of foreign powers regarding the nuclear program goes back to the fact that there is no economic justification [for the regime to pursue a nuclear program.].

The regime could have used this amount of money to address Irans social and economic problems. Sanctions could be easily lifted if Tehran once and for all abandoned its nuclear program or its other malign activities. But, Khamenei has tied the fate of his regime to obtaining nuclear bomb.

Tehran has exploited the world communitys weak approach to turn the Vienna talks into a cycle of deceit to buy time and make a bomb.

As the Iranian Resistance hasunderlined, Only firmness could break this cycle. The six UN Security Council resolutions must be reactivated. The Iranian regimes nuclear sites should be dismantled, and the regime should halt enriching uranium. The inspection, anywhere and anytime, should be implemented.

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Iran: Is Revival of JCPOA a Lost Cause - NCRI

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If you are currently in Iran:

Last Update: Reissued with updates to COVID-19 information.

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Iran Travel Advisory

IranSource

December 7, 2021

ByAnonymous

Many analysts have interpreted the results of recent Iraqi parliamentary elections on October 10 as a sign of diminishing Iranian influence, but the reality is more nuanced. To reach any conclusion, one needs to examine the power bases of Shia, Sunni, secular and ethnic groups, the orientations of Shia cleric and politician Muqtada al-Sadr, the role and influence of the clerical Hakim family, and the influence and instruments of Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Units (PMUs).

Clearly, parties critical of current Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi lost seats. Among them were the Fatah Coalition of Iran-backed PMUs and their political wings. Other losers were the party led by the moderate Shia cleric Ammar al-Hakim and the Nasr coalition led by the former Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi, neither of which are considered pro-Iran. On the other hand, the Dawa Party of former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, known to be close to Tehran, was the third biggest winner and took more seats than it had in the previous parliament.

The final election result announced on November 30 has been interpreted to suggest that the Sadr bloc has increased its popularity while Fatahs support declined, but the vote total reveals a different story. While the Sadrists outperformed their PMU rival in seat count, the two sides received nearly the same number of votes. In fact, Fatah and its allies received slightly more votes than the Sadrists but secured fewer seats, with Fatah receiving an estimated 670,000 votes while the Sadrists received 650,000.

This suggests that ignorance of the new Iraqi electoral law and failure to use its mechanics properly not popularity or proximity to Tehranwas behind Fatahs fewer seats. According to an analysis published by Chatham House, Fatah failed to accurately assess the structure created by new legislation.

There are also questions about the results in Iraqi Kurdistan. Of the two main Kurdish parties, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) is closer to Iran than the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP). The PUK won sixteen seats but has rejected the preliminary results, claiming election rigging by KDP, which took thirty-three seats. The PUKs allegations about election rigging are similar to those made by the Fatah coalition.

The preliminary results have created a dilemma for Iran, which has made no official comments about them. Tehran faces a paradoxical situation: if it doesnt support the claims of the Fatah coalition about election rigging, this will increase the likelihood that the next Iraqi government moves to disarm the PMUs. If, on the other hand, Iran supports the rigging claims, it will be stuck in the middle of domestic wrangling among different political factions and later in the Iraqi parliament.

This is a simple cost-benefit calculation for Tehran, which wont accept losing its influence in Iraq. The Islamic Republics rulers decided long ago that domestic influence in regional countries should be its top priority. So far, they have accepted all the costs for such influence.

Kadhimi assassination attempt

On November 7, there was a failed assassination attempt against Prime Minister Kadhimi. No group has claimed responsibility but suspicion fell on Tehran until American military sources said that, although unspecified Shia militias are believed to have conducted the attack, Iran seems to have lost its control and has not supported the drone attack. Additionally, the Iraqi investigation committee announced on November 28 that the explosives and drones used in the assassination attempt were made in Iraq.

Iranian officials have so far argued that the PMUs have the most to lose from the drone attack. Former Iranian ambassador to Iraq Hassan Danaeifar said that the attack was a sedition to block the trend of democracy in Iraq and to influence the formation of the next government in Baghdad. He added that it was simple-mindedness to blame this on an Iraqi group and that the act cannot be the result of domestic political competitions in Iraq. The secretary of Irans Supreme National Security Council, Ali Shamkhani, ludicrously blamed foreign think tanks for the attempt.

Official Iranian newspapers, including government outlet Iran and hardliner mouthpiece Kayhan, attributed it to the enemies of Iran and Iraq. Javan, which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) postulated that Kadhimi himself might have been behind the attack. The common theme among Iranian media of all stripes was that the attack was suspicious and perpetrated by Iraqs enemies, who want Iraq to remain insecure about facilitating their manipulationsan analysis whose irony appears to have eluded the Iranian authors.

On November 8, Tehran sent IRGC Quds Force Commander Esmail Qaani to Baghdad, where he met with Kadhimi and other top officials. Qaani insisted that Iraq needed stability and security at present, that all acts that threaten Iraqi security must be avoided, and that it is essential that the demands of Iraqis that have protested the election results are taken into account but only in the framework of the current laws. Following his meetings, the PMUs and Iraqi government agreed to de-escalate tensions.

The Sadr factor

Muqtada al-Sadr is a critic of both Iran and groups backed by the United States and Saudi Arabia. This may mean that pressures may increase not only to neutralize the influence of Iran-backed PMUs and their political wing, but also to push for a full withdrawal of US forces from Iraq. Iraqi media have suggested that a significantly large number of the MP-elects also support these demands regardless of their political affiliation.

Many expected the election to end the political stalemate in Iraq, but Baghdad continues to face a multitude of crises. This atmosphere means that its politics remain open to outside influence and interference. The form of manipulations may change given the composition of the new parliament, but the content will remain as foreign countries exploit the different parliamentary trends, Iraqs general shortcomings, and cracks in its system.

Tehran has realized that the PMUs are now marginalized in parliament and the future cabinet, but not at the social level. Therefore, Iran may push its agenda in Iraq less through the PMUs and more through existing diplomatic and economic leverage, such as the supply of energy, gas, foodstuffs, construction materials, tourism, and the religious and ethnic closeness of the two peoples.

This, of course, doesnt mean that the PMU and Fatah coalition will be of no use to Tehran. However, Tehran will work with the groups that control the parliamentary majority. If the PMUs decide to focus more on political action and less on military activities, they may still have a chance of enlarging their electoral base for a return to power. In the meantime, Irans best options are to work with other groups such as Malikis faction, moderates such as Hakim, and allies like the PUK, in addition to the small Fatah faction in parliament.

The author, who is well versed in the Iranian political scene, asked to remain anonymous.

Tue, Dec 8, 2020

IranSourceBySina Azodi

Irans interest in developing a nuclear deterrent is often attributed to the Islamic Republic. However, in reality, this interest predates the 1979 revolution and reflects a deep-seated desire for national prestige and development, as well as a need to deter regional rivals.

Wed, Sep 1, 2021

IranSourceBySina Azodi and Mohsen Solhdoost

Rising tensions between Israel and Iran have reached an alarming stage in recent weeks. What used to be a shadow war of covert operations, sabotage, and proxy conflict is turning into a more direct military confrontation between the long-time regional adversaries.

Thu, Feb 11, 2021

IranSourceByKenneth Katzman

The de-listing of Iranian economic entities that were designated as terrorist entities could spark a broader debate on the overarching US approach to Iranian support for regional armed factions.

Image: A woman holds a picture of Sadr's movement leader Moqtada al-Sadr, as his supporters celebrate after preliminary results of Iraq's parliamentary election were announced in Baghdad, Iraq October 11, 2021. REUTERS/Thaier Al-Sudani/File Photo

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Iran's allies lost seats in the Iraqi elections. Now Tehran is recalibrating its strategy. - Atlantic Council

US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said Tuesday that the US and Russian presidents had a good discussion on Iran in their teleconference on Ukraine.

Russia and the United States actually worked well together, even in tense circumstances, back in the 2014, 2015 period to produce the joint comprehensive plan of action. This is an area where Russia and the United States can continue to consult closely to ensure that Iran never acquires [nuclear weapons], Sullivan said.

After seven rounds of multilateral negotiations in Vienna to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran has presented new demands unacceptable to the United States and its three European allies who signed the 2015 agreement.

Essentially, Iran is asking for all sanctions imposed since former president Donald Trump withdrew from the agreement be lifted first before it commits itself to the limitations of the JCPOA again.

The last round of the Vienna talks ended on December 3, with no clarity as to when they will resume. Iran said Tuesday that talks will restart on Thursday, but so far others have not confirmed this.

Russia and China, Irans diplomatic supporters, are also signatories of JCPOA and the US needs their support to put pressure on Iran. Anecdotal information says that both Moscow and Beijing were taken aback by Irans positions in the Vienna talks last week, but it is not clear how far they are ready to lean on Tehran.

Sullivan stopped short of providing a clue as to what Russia is prepared to do at this juncture to persuade Iran to adopt a more reasonable negotiating posture.

Sullivan was asked if a return to the JCPOA means releasing frozen funds and lifting sanction, allowing Iran to carry on with its activities in the Middle East, a point that critics of the administrations policy of returning to a purely nuclear deal with Iran have voiced.

Sullivan replied with the argument that the nuclear deal has no impact on Irans proxy forces in the region. Trumps withdrawal from the agreement did not rein in pro-Iran groups in Lebanon or Yemen, and the opposite is also true. Nothing about the nuclear deal stops the United states capacity to deal with those proxies and we are prepared to do so., the national security advisor said.

When Trump abandoned the nuclear agreement one his demands was that Tehran change its malign behavior in the region and stop grooming and supporting militant forces.

The Biden Administration has also expressed concern over Irans regional policies and its ballistic missile program but has argued that the JCPOA should be restored first, and other matters pursued later. But critics say that once the nuclear deal is revived the US must lift key sanctions, which would give Tehran a financial lifeline, leaving no incentive for further talks.

The Biden Administrations Iran strategy is also based on close coordination with European allies, unlike Trump who abandoned the JCPOA against the advice of allies. Sullivan reiterated that allies are important.

The more Iran demonstrates a lack of seriousness at the negotiating table, the more unity there is among the P5+1, and the more they will be exposed as the isolated party in this negotiation. So really the ball is in Irans court as to whether it wants to show up and demonstrate that its going to be serious or not, Sullivan maintained.

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Sullivan Says Good Discussion With Putin On Iran As Talks Stall - Iran International