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Iranian leaders and their allies are counting on stamina to weather the storm and are hoping demonstrators energy and fervour will wane as the year draws to a close. In Iran, Iraq and Lebanon, the Iranian regimes priority is securing its survival and preventing the three uprisings from bearing fruit by any means necessary whatever the cost.

Russia remains committed to its Iranian ally and is confident of its promise to stop the spread of instability. What is new is the shift in the European position with regards to Iran. The Europeans have run out of patience with Irans violations, not just in terms of the 2015 nuclear deal but also the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps's direct participation in staging riots, and stoking sectarianism and violence against peaceful protests in Lebanon, from its outposts in Syria and the Bekaa Valley.

This has made countries like Germany draw closer to the US position, despite previous opposition, causing concern and anger among the ranks of the Iranian leadership. A few days ago, German daily Der Spiegel reported that the nations interior ministry had requested an inquiry into Hezbollahs activities, with an agreement reached by the government in Berlin to impose a total ban on the organisation in Germany next week. The report said Germany would treat members of Hezbollah members as it treats ISIS.

Iran has decided to take a rigid, escalatory and uncompromising approach

For 18 months, US ambassador to Berlin Richard Grenell sought to persuade European states to adopt the American perspective on Iranian and Hezbollah activities; the new policy in Germany bears his hallmarks. Iran will undoubtedly be furious. The leadership in Tehran spared no effort in convincing the Europeans to push for exemptions from US sanctions but has since been steadily let down as European banks and businesses refused to deal with the regime, fearing they too would be sanctioned. The Iranians have used a combination of blackmail and threats, and a pattern of escalation and de-escalation, aware that a US-European alliance would further increase their isolation. Meanwhile, as protests rage on home turf, sources say the regime in Tehran is determined to reject any dialogue with demonstrators. Irans leaders are convinced the protests in Lebanon will die down in a matter of weeks. In short, Iran has decided to take a rigid, escalatory and uncompromising approach.

The Europeans are concerned about a possible Iranian assault of the level and magnitude of the attack on Saudi Aramco facilities. They are also concerned about Iran clamping down on demonstrations at home and dragging the Lebanese uprising into violence by engineering chaos that would consolidate Hezbollahs control of the country. Such actions would inevitably impact relations.

Berlin is resentful of Iranian threats and blackmails against Germany, France and Britain, all signatories of the nuclear deal. The German government believes the time has come to publicly call out Iranian violations of the deal instead of continuing to try to salvage it. After Us President Donald Trump walked out last year, the deal can no longer be revived, given the inability of European powers to compel businesses to trade under the Instex special purpose vehicle designed to bypass sanctions. Irans nuclear enrichment actions and ballistic missile programme have driven another nail into the deals coffin. The IRGCs involvement in the suppression of protests in the region could mobilise public opinion in Europe against the Iranian regimes authoritarianism and expansionism.

Mr Trump is said to be annoyed by attempts by French President Emmanuel Macron to ingratiate himself as mediator with Tehran while suggesting lifting sanctions. The source said: A US source said the administration was willing to talk but negotiations would not be conditional on lifting or easing sanctions.

The Trump administration will continue using sanctions as a tool to tame, isolate, contain and punish the regime in Iran. If European pressures on the regime increase, its isolation and financial hardship will only deepen. But the question is: what will its leaders then do?

In Lebanon, the Iranian leadership thinks the crisis will not last longer than another month due to fatigue and the impasse that protests have reached

In Iraq, the situation looks extremely complex and difficult for Iran, with no light at the end of the tunnel as protests continue and the death toll rises. Iranians are hurting themselves and their neighbour by refusing to allow Iraq to become a normal country. The regimes logic does not allow for a withdrawal from Iraq or the disbanding of the Popular Mobilisation Forces. The bloodshed will continue and the risk of a US-Iranian military confrontation will increase, either because of deliberate provocation by the Iranians to draw Mr Trump into conflict or as a result of an incident involving US forces in Iraq.

In Lebanon, the Iranian leadership thinks the crisis will not last longer than another month due to fatigue and the impasse that protests have reached. The Iranian leadership is betting protesters endurance will decrease as the ruling class plays a waiting game.

So far Washington has succeeded in ensuring European support for the demands of the uprising, led by the need to form a government of technocrats rather than politicians affiliated to traditional parties under the dominance of Hezbollah and the IRGC.

The situation is now very delicate. If Iran succeeds in suppressing the Lebanese uprising, the ruling class will return with a vengeance and retaliate against those who dared to question them and call for them to be held accountable.

Western powers are waking up to the fact the key to protecting Lebanon from chaos and total collapse is to pressure and punish Iran and its proxies. But accountability will take time. It is therefore necessary to be patient and think pragmatically and strategically if the uprising is to achieve its lofty goals.

Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute

Updated: November 30, 2019 07:48 PM

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Iranian regime's priority is ensuring its survival and quashing regional protests - The National

Fariba Nafissi had been an executive at IKEA in Burbank for almost 20 years when she received one of lifes most jarring wake-up calls. Shed planned a trip to visit Iran, her home country, with her cousin Shahroo, whod gone ahead a couple of weeks early. Before Nafissi arrived, Shahroo died in her sleep. Nafissi was soon asking questions about what gave her life the most meaning.

Baking was part of the answer. Nafissi grew up in Kerman, a city in the southeast of Iran on the edge of the Lut desert. Dates are a major local crop; she remembers her father having a bowl of yogurt with dates as part of his lunch every day.

One of the regions distinctive treats is kolompeh, a soft, golden cookie filled with dates, nuts and spices. Bakers use special stamps to create patterns in the dough. Four years ago Nafissi began selling kolompeh on Etsy. Their beautiful shape and soothing flavors swiftly found an audience, and Nafissi established ZoZo Baking.

Her retailing has mostly been online, but in September Nafissi opened her first store in the quiet concrete caverns of the Simi Valley Shopping Center, behind a California Pizza Kitchen. The space is part production facility and part coffee shop, with a communal table and couch and corners with small displays of silver jewelry, books on Persian cooking and brightly colored tableware for sale. You can order properly thick Turkish coffee with your treats, and also espresso and scented teas.

The counter in the back right of the store exhibits Nafissis full repertoire of Iranian baked goods. There are stacks of nan-e nokhodchi, chickpea flour cookies pressed into clover shapes; their pleasantly sandy texture dissolves on the tongue, leaving behind cardamoms sweet musk. Nafissi describes qhotabs as mini hand pies, thumb-sized pastries crammed with walnut paste and spices. She serves her version of baklava in tiny diamonds; the dough is thicker than the Greek or Lebanese phyllo-based variations, and rose water gently scents the pistachio or almond fillings.

Fariba Nafissi at her store, Zozo Baking, in Simi Valley.

(Bill Addison / Los Angeles Times)

Kolompeh command center-stage, fanned out on a large platter. I want to snatch them by the fistful. The stamp gives their round borders a fluted appearance; in the center swirl patterns of paisley and tiny spheres the size of pearl couscous.

Nafissi creates familiar American flavor combinations apple-cinnamon, blueberry-almond, strawberry, a seasonal cranberry number shes been tinkering with recently but her traditional kolompeh is by far the most wonderful. Yogurt and egg yolk make the dough tender; the edges are delicate and crumbly. She uses no other sweetener beyond the dates. Saffron gives the cookie its sunny color, and the spice mix lights up the brain: sparks from cinnamon and cloves, a floral hit from rose petal, a sneaky micro-pinch of cumin that intensifies the other flavors. Ground pistachios add a finale of gentle crunch.

Nafissis store is charming, and the trek from central Los Angeles to Simi Valley includes some beautiful mountain vistas along the highways. Its also easy to order kolompeh and other pastries from her online site. Id never tried a kolompeh before last week but theyre now my go-to food gift this season.

Fresas con natas, a strawberry dessert at Somni.

(Mariah Tauger/Los Angeles Times)

I reviewed one of the most expensive and outrageous restaurants in Los Angeles this week: Jos Andrs Somni in the SLS Beverly Hills. Its a big splurge, and a hard-to-get reservation; its also a beguiling, beautiful piece of the Los Angeles dining jigsaw.

Fellow critic Patricia Escrcega heads to Sawtelles Mogu Mogu to illuminate the style of brothless ramen called mazemen.

This week on Lucas Kwan Petersons Off Menu: building community through the foodways of skid row, the epicenter of L.A.s homelessness crisis.

Euno Lee has a guide to Orange Countys Koreatown in Garden Grove.

Genevieve Ko brings us the recipe for APLs lemony kale salad.

And a final word on Thanksgiving dinner this year from culture columnist and critic Mary McNamara.

Also, dont forget: The Times is throwing an event to celebrate the release of this years 101 Best Restaurants on Monday, Dec. 9! The bash, held this year at the Vibiana downtown, includes food from 30 of the restaurants that made the list. Ill be hiding my face and not in attendance, but Food editor Peter Meehan will be there to present the list.

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Newsletter: The Iranian date cookie that's a gift to Los Angeles - Los Angeles Times

Protesters took to the streets shortly after the government announced an increase in fuel prices by as much as 300%. Social media images showed banks, petrol stations and government buildings set ablaze by rioters. Some protesters chanted "down with Khamenei," according to videos, referring to the country's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In other countries where nationwide protests have rattled the political elite -- such as Iraq and Lebanon -- social media has played a key role in mobilizing protesters. It is unclear if Iranian authorities will succeed in quelling the demonstrations by depriving them of this crucial protest tool.

Protests in Iran have been a long time coming. Popular discontent over the country's leadership has brewed for years as economic conditions continued to worsen, causing nationwide protests to erupt between December 2017 and January 2018.

Since May 2017, US President Donald Trump has unleashed several rounds of sanctions that have crippled Iran's economy, causing its currency to tank, prices to spiral, and trigger shortages in food and medical equipment. As people's living conditions worsened, many Iranians blamed US sanctions for their woes, but also criticized corruption that they believe is widespread among Iran's clerical leadership.

Last Friday, a government announcement about fuel price hikes -- between 50% and 300% -- appeared to be the straw that broke the camel's back. Large numbers of protesters took to the streets in urban centers across the country.

How have authorities responded?

Several protesters have been killed in the demonstrations, according to government officials. Khamenei, who has backed the fuel price hikes, has blamed the riots on external forces.

"The counter-revolution and Iran's enemies have always supported sabotage and breaches of security and continue to do so," Khamenei said in a live speech on state TV on Sunday. "Unfortunately, some problems were caused, a number of people lost their lives and some centers were destroyed."

Khamenei is the final arbiter on decision-making in Iran. Despite the protests, he said the fuel price increase "must be implemented" while urging officials not to raise the price of other commodities.

Interior Minister Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli has warned that security forces will act against protesters if "vandalism" continues.

What is the US' stance on the protests?

The White House has publicly supported the protests. A statement on Sunday from the Trump administration condemned Tehran's use of "lethal force and severe communications restrictions" and chastised the government that "abandons its people and embarks on a crusade for personal power and riches."

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also tweeted his "support" for the protests on Saturday.

Washington's reaction echoes Trump's response to the protests two years ago when he called for "change" and denounced Tehran for "failing at every level."

Tehran has, in turn, dismissed the US comments as "hypocritical," highlighting US sanctions as a key driver of the country's economic role.

"It seems weird to see sympathizing with a nation suffering from the US' economic terrorism and the same person who has already said that the Iranian people should be starved to surrender," said Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Abbas Mousavi, according to state-owned ISNA news agency.

When Trump pulled out of the landmark 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran in May 2017, he unveiled his "maximum pressure" campaign which sought to extract major political concessions from Iran through an extreme economic squeeze.

Pompeo initially rolled out a list of 12 demands to restrain what the US calls Tehran's "malign activities" in the region. But since then, Trump appeared to backtrack, recently saying that he aimed only to stop Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

Iran suspended its uranium enrichment activities after signing a landmark agreement with the Obama administration in 2015. But since May 2018 -- a year after Trump reimposed sanctions on the country -- Iran has taken several steps away from its compliance with the nuclear accord.

Are Iran's demonstrations related to other regional protest movements?

Rapidly deteriorating economic conditions in Iraq, Lebanon and Iran have meant that the protesters have a clear common cause. But the similarities may go beyond economy. Both Iraq and Lebanon are in Iran's sphere of influence, and protests against the status quo could weaken Tehran's sway in both countries.

In Iraq, the Iranian-backed Popular Mobilization Units, which wield significant political influence, have responded violently to protesters. Hundreds have been killed in those protests. In Lebanon, Hezbollah initially suggested protests there were part of an international conspiracy against the Iranian-backed militant and political group. But Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah has since backed the anti-corruption protesters in recent speeches.

Last month, Khamenei accused US and Western intelligence services of "spreading turmoil" in Iraq and Lebanon. He also recalled Iran's response to its 2018 protests, praising the armed forces for "neutralizing" "similar plans" for Iran.

It is unclear whether the protests will do lasting damage to Iran's standing in the region, but its response -- from force to internet blackouts -- suggests that the unrest has unnerved Tehran.

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Iran's 'largest internet shutdown ever' is happening now. Here's what you need to know - CNN

In Islamshahr, a small working-class city, crowds attacked a billboard of Irans supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Posts on social media showed that they had set it ablaze.

While insulting the supreme leader is an offense that can carry the death penalty, people did not seem to care.

We are fed up, they chanted.

In cities including Behshahr, Shiraz, Tehran and Karaj, protests turned violent when people attacked government buildings, set banks on fire, ripped the national flag and kicked and burned revolutionary monuments.

The police and demonstrators exchanged gunfire on Friday in Sirjan, a city some 500 miles southeast of Tehran, an Interior Ministry official there told state television.

The state-run IRNA news agency said protesters tried to set fire to the oil depot, The Associated Press reported. It quoted the official, Mohammad Mahmoudabadi, as saying, They insisted on reaching the oil depot and creating crises.

Around Iran, anti-riot police officers and security forces battled crowds on motorcycles and on foot, videos on social media and local news outlets showed. These accounts showed that in Karaj, a young man was shot in the head, while in Shiraz, security forces shot a young man, who collapsed to the ground, bleeding.

They are firing on the people, shouted the narrator of the video from Shiraz, his hands shaking as he documented the scene.

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Protests Incited by Gas Price Hike Grip Iran - The New York Times

Less than a week since the Iranian government hiked gasoline prices by dozens of percentage points, the regime is at the lethal phase of quashing the demonstrations. While an internet blackout has greatly impeded the flow of information among protest groups and between them and the outside world, more than 100 people are thought to have been killed, with some reports putting the figure as high as 200, and thousands injured or detained.

Reports relying on sources in the Basij, the volunteer forces of the Revolutionary Guards, tell of training exercises to suppress protests. They also say the Guards are on high alert and might deploy armored vehicles in cities.

At the beginning of the week the government apparently still thought it could calm the public; for example, by handing money directly to the 20 million or so needy Iranians as compensation for price rises. But now the leadership seems to realize that its facing the threat of an all-out civil insurrection, as the protests spread to about 100 cities amid the burning of banks and government offices, damage to schools of Islamic studies, and slogans and graffiti demanding death to Rohani, death to Khamenei.

While such phenomena happened during the major protests of 2009 and 2017-18, this time the government is having a hard time distinguishing between reformists and conservatives, and thus separating those it calls loyal to the revolution from those it deems domestic enemies operated by the United States, Israel and the arrogant forces of the West.

At the beginning of the protests, demonstrations broke out in Tehrans neighborhoods that are racked by poverty. But within three days they had spread to north Tehran, Shiraz, Yazd and Isfahan, as students, young people and middle-class folks march together. The head of the Revolutionary Guards has said the response to protests will be decisive and revolutionary, while the editor of Kayhan, a daily controlled by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, has demanded that the regime execute the protesters. This reflects the tension, not to say panic, among the regimes leaders.

In contrast to 2009, when it was clear who was leading the protests and who the protesters were, this time, like last year, there are no known leaders with a cogent ideology or clear political strategy. This means that even if the regime is willing to negotiate with the protesters, as it did with striking teachers, truck drivers and protesting government factory workers, there is currently no clear group that it can neutralize to achieve calm.

And a violent suppression can entangle the regime even more by possibly bringing other sectors of society into the protest. One danger is that the Basij volunteers, many of them from poor neighborhoods and some who were forced to volunteer if they wanted a job, will leave the organization and join the protest.

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The regimes legitimacy is compromised further by the unified front presented by Khamenei, President Hassan Rohani and Chief Justice Ebrahim Raisi, who have fully backed the governments decision to raise taxes. In doing so, they have increased the sense of alienation and hostility for the leadership.

In previous protests, Rohani came out against the use of force and said people had the right to nonviolent protest. He even accused certain religious institutions and the Revolutionary Guards of graft. This time, Rohani has remained silent despite the shooting at protesters and the many casualties. The deep economic crisis and the lack of a political will to implement the economic reforms Rohani wanted have trapped him in a dead end where only a dramatic step like a hike in gas prices could help plug the budget deficit that has reached 8 percent of GDP.

Of course, the regime could reverse its decision to raise taxes, or do so gradually over a year, but such a decision would mean not only giving in to the publics demands, but deviating from the strategy of resistance economics that Khamenei has said is the way to overcome the steamroller of sanctions. Thus, suppression of the protests is necessary ideologically, not only politically. Meanwhile, the regime is relying on experience and is certain that this time too it will be able to quash the protests before they become a dangerous civil insurrection.

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Iran's attempts to quell protests bring them closer to the boiling point - Haaretz