Forbes | Iran Reaches Lease Financing Deal For 77 Boeing, Airbus Planes Forbes Tehran has reached a deal with an international aircraft leasing company to finance the acquisition of 77 planes from Boeing and Airbus, according to local ... |
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Iran Reaches Lease Financing Deal For 77 Boeing, Airbus Planes - Forbes
ISTANBUL When the United States suddenly issued a ban on entry by nationals from Iran and six other countries, sending the worlds airports into chaos, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani gave a muted response.
Lets help neighboring cultures, not build walls between nations, the moderate leader posted on Twitter. Lets not forget what happened to the #BerlinWall.
The comment, typical of Rouhanis soft diplomacy, became fodder for critics ahead of his reelection bid this spring.
President Trump will not understand the references to walls, the conservative Ezzatollah Zarghami, a potential challenger to Rouhani, fired back. You should speak to [Trump] the same way you to speak to your critics, Zarghami said.
A burgeoning crisis between Iran and the United States has threatened to undermine the pragmatic Rouhani, who was elected four years ago on promises to end the countrys isolation from the West. But now, amid new tensions with the Trump administration, Rouhanis pro-dialogue approach is under attack. The shift from detente with the Obama administration to open hostility with the White House under Trump has left Rouhani particularly vulnerable as he gears up for a presidential vote in May.
[Amid tensions with U.S., Iran warns White House and lauds Americans opposing Trump]
In the few weeks since Trump took office, the two sides have sparred over Irans ballistic missile program, the ban on Iranian nationals entering the United States and new White House sanctions targeting Irans weapons systems. Trumps then-national security adviser, Michael Flynn, announced that the United States was putting Iran on notice over its ballistic missile tests, which the White House said defied a U.N. Security Council Resolution. Iran responded with more military exercises and a threat to rain down missiles on its enemies.
The conventional wisdom is that if the U.S. really begins to crack down to put Iran on the defense, keep it under threat, and take away some benefits that it will work against Rouhani, said Gary Sick, who was the principal White House aide on Iran during the 1979 revolution and subsequent holding of U.S. Embassy personnel as hostages.
Irans conservatives have yet to field a viable candidate to oppose Rouhani, said Sick, who is now a research scholar at Columbia Universitys Middle East Institute. But in Iranian election campaigns, which normally last just a few weeks, things happen very fast, he said.
Rouhani, a cleric turned politician, has the political advantage of an incumbent. And, despite disagreements over policy and ideology, he appears to still have the support of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whose broad power can make or break candidates. Khamenei recently nudged Rouhanis chief rival former president and right-wing firebrand Mahmoud Ahmadinejad out of the race, after rumors swirled of a dramatic political comeback.
It strikes me as unlikely that the regime will switch horses at this stage or that a rival can offer a compelling alternative to the electorate, said Suzanne Maloney, senior fellow at the Brookings Center for Middle East Policy. But making predictions on Iranian elections is a fools game.
Given the uncertainty and the Trump administrations more-hawkish policies, Irans election, scheduled for May19, will not be an easy one for Rouhani, said Abas Aslani, world news editor at Irans Tasnim News Agency. Irans Guardian Council, a clerical oversight body, will vet the contenders and announce the approved candidates in late April. Candidate registration has not yet opened, meaning there is still time for a conservative front-runner to emerge.
[Iran stages military exercises in response to U.S. sanctions]
But if voters think that Rouhani has failed on key promises, such as bringing economic growth through the careful diplomacy of the nuclear deal, it will shake the presidents popularity ahead of the polls, Aslani said.
Indeed, the trouble for Rouhani started when Iranians, sick of a sluggish economy, grew sour on the 2015 nuclear deal he said would boost investment and ease poverty. That agreement between Iran, the United States and five other nations was hailed as a diplomatic achievement and promised sanctions relief if Iran halted its nuclear enrichment program.
Since then, some restrictions have been lifted. But others, such as those targeting Irans alleged financial support of terrorist groups, remain in place, sanctions experts say.
Foreign banks have also continued to avoid transactions with Iran, where corruption and money laundering are rife, said Richard Nephew, former principal deputy coordinator for sanctions policy at the State Department. Iran also resumed selling oil on the international market, but low prices stunted what many Iranians hoped would have been a swift economic recovery.
Residual sanctions, particularly those associated with Irans support for terrorism, continue to hamper [Irans] economic performance, but so, too, did Irans poor business climate and low oil prices, said Nephew, who also served as Iran director on the National Security Council under President Obama.
As a result, the majority of people are not satisfied with the economy, said Ali Omidi, professor of international relations at the University of Isfahan.
Unemployment reached 12.7percent in the second quarter of 2016 up from 10.9percent the year before according to the latest data available from Irans central bank, and oil and non-oil-sector growth remained at 3percent and 2.8percent, respectively.
According to a poll published by the University of Maryland in January, a majority of Iranians now believe that Iran has not received most of the promised benefits of the nuclear deal. They also say that there have been no improvements in peoples living conditions as a result of the agreement.
People are following the recent tensions [with the United States] with worry, Omidi said.
Iranians think Trump is an unusual person who may deliberately start a crisis, he said.
On this point, Iranians might rally behind Rouhani. But it will depend on how aggressively the White House censures Iran, and on how Khamenei responds. The Trump administration has already floated a proposal to designate Irans Revolutionary Guard Corps, the countrys most powerful security institution, a terrorist organization. Such a move would have destabilizing effects around the region, where the Guard Corps is active.
This administration will likely really be ready to take risks to oppose Iran. Its just a matter of how risky they are prepared to get, Sick said.
It also depends whether the Supreme Leader is going to walk away from Rouhani as the Americans get tougher, he said. He might decide to abandon his president or to stick with him. Its difficult to predict.
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Iran's Rouhani under fire as tensions with US rise - Washington Post
Shahnaz Akmali, the mother of protester Moustafa Karimbeigi.
Human rights campaigners have accused Iran of silencing the mother of a protester who was killed in post-election unrest in 2009.
Shahnaz Akmalis son, Moustafa Karimbeigi, was shot dead in December 2009 during protests after Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won a second term in office.
Akmali was arrested last month after intelligence officials raided her workplace and her house in Tehran. Officials have not explained the reasons for her arrest.
Akmali became politically active after her sons killing, visiting families of other victims to show her solidarity. Recently she had campaigned for the release of Arash Sadeghi, a student activist serving a 19-year jail sentence, who was on hunger strike for several months until January.
Before her arrest, Akmali had complained about pressure on her and her family, particularly her daughter. Kill me too, kill my daughter, but I will not keep quiet and will follow my sons path, she said in a video aired on Voice of Americas Persian service shortly after her arrest.
Discussing a visit to victims graves alongside other families, she said: We were just visiting the graves of our children, why would you arrest us? Why would you interrogate us at gunpoint? She was released then but detained again on 25 January.
Akmali said in the video that the authorities had threatened to kill her daughter if she did not stop advocating for the plight of other families: They called me again and said we will kill your daughter the same way weve killed your son, so shut up. Stay home and just recite Quran for your son, we will kill you and your daughter if you leave home.
Amnesty Internationals Iran researcher Raha Bahreini said Akmali had been detained solely on account of her courageous human rights work, and urged Tehran to release her immediately and unconditionally.
The continued detention of Shahnaz Akmali is another example of the repressive tactics Iranian authorities regularly resort to in a bid to deter human rights defenders from speaking out and supporting victims of violations, she said.
Instead of criminalising and jailing human rights defenders still working in the country, the Iranian authorities must investigate and hold accountable perpetrators of human rights violations, including those responsible for the torture and killing of her son Moustafa Karimbeigi during the 2009 post-presidential election protests.
Bahreini added: For years Iranian intelligence officials have been harassing and threatening families of detainees in order to scare them into silence. The threats made against Shahnaz Akmalis family to stay quiet about her detention is a very worrying escalation of that and should stop.
Human Rights Watchs Sarah Leah Whitson said: Arbitrarily detaining a woman who has repeatedly asked for justice for her son is simply shameful. The judiciary should focus on finding out who killed Shahnaz [Akmali]s son, instead of prosecuting her for peaceful activism.
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Campaigners urge Iran to free mother of shot protester - The Guardian
Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Fox News' "Hannity" Thursday night that his country and the United States have a "grand mission" to confront the threat of a nuclear Iran.
Netanyahu, who met President Donald Trump at the White House Wednesday, told host Sean Hannity that Tehran's aggressive rhetoric toward Israel is meant to mask their intentions against the U.S.
"They want to have [intercontinental ballistic missiles] that can reach your country. Thats what theyre working on right now. Remember, youre the Great Satan [to them]," Netanyahu said. "They believe that theyre destined to govern the world. Anybody that doesnt agree with them, theyll be able to subjugate or kill, and theyre working on the means to achieve that."
Netanyahu described his meeting with Trump as a "historical moment," as well as "a meeting of the minds and a meeting of the hearts."
"I feel we have now, as the president says, an even stronger alliance," the prime minister said. "A new day, he called it. Maybe a new age."
Netanyahu again criticized the Iran nuclear deal, a key source of his frustration with the Obama administration.
"The deal essentially said this, it said no bomb today, 100 bombs tomorrow, in ten years," he said. "Now the assumption was, people [would say] Well, OK, were kicking the can down the road. But this nuclear can of a single bomb then becomes the capacity to make dozens and dozens of bombs. And Iran doesnt change its attitude."
"Since the signing of the deal," Netanyahu said, "Iran has become more aggressive, more deadly, sponsoring more terrorism with more money, a lot more money.
"Theyve killed Americans all over the place. Theyve sponsored terrorism against Americans all over the place. Now theyre going to build ICBMs that can reach the United States and have multiple warheads to do that? Thats horrible," he added. "Its dangerous for America, dangerous for Israel, dangerous for the Arabs. Everybody now understands it and theres an American president who understands it and were talking about what to do about this common threat."
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Netanyahu: US, Israel have 'grand mission' to confront Iran threat - Fox News
FRANKFURT, GERMANY
Iran sits on what are thought to be the worlds largest gas reserves, yet can barely supply its own domestic demand.
Since the United Nations-backed deal over Tehrans nuclear program spurred the lifting of international sanctions, the country has strived to attract foreign investment in developing oil fields and upgrading its aging infrastructure.
The Ministry of Petroleum helped to convene the CWC Iran Gas Conference this week in Frankfurt, Germany, to bring together government figures and private investors.
Watch: Energy Giants Say Iran Needs $100 Billion for Gas Upgrade
Industry experts: $100 billion needed
Industry estimates suggest Iran needs to invest $100 billion in order to fully exploit the reserves. The nuclear agreement removed some sanctions on Iran, but mainly in Europe. It remains extremely difficult for American companies to do business, according to Reiner Jahn, vice president of the German-Iranian Chamber of Commerce and expert on financing deals with Iran.
Unless its licensed by OFAC, the U.S. sanctions authority, there is no way for an American to negotiate any transaction with an Iranian, he said.
So Iran is looking elsewhere.
Indian demand for gas is forecast to grow rapidly, and Tehran sees it as a key market. The private consortium South Asia Gas Enterprise, or SAGE, has advanced plans for the worlds deepest underwater pipeline connecting the two countries.
Our reconnaissance survey was performed between Oman and India. Unfortunately at that time the leg that went to Iran couldnt be surveyed because of sanctions. SAGE is expecting to perform the remaining leg of the survey to Iran this year, project director Ian Nash told delegates at the conference.
The 1,300-kilometer, $5 billion pipeline would lie on the seabed, more than 2,500 meters below the oceans surface. The viability of such investments depends on the price of gas, currently difficult to predict, says Vincent Groote of Dutch engineering firm Twister Supersonic Gas Solutions.
An OPEC for natural gas
You get [the price] floating up and down, which is not what investors would like. So I can imagine that as a natural development, similarly as OPEC for oil, in the long future we could think about a GPEC lets say a Gas-Producing-Exporting Country type of infrastructure.
Iran likely would wield considerable power in such a cartel, though there are clouds on the horizon.
U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized the nuclear deal, and he has imposed new sanctions on Iran following a recent missile test. History shows that the United States could still intervene to disrupt foreign investment, says Jahn.
The U.S. invented secondary sanctions, where they sanction European companies that acted in complete accordance with EU law, but not in accordance with U.S. law. Therefore. I think they have an impact in our market, he said.
The French bank BNP Paribas was fined $8.9 billion by U.S. authorities in 2014 for breaking such sanctions.
The nuclear deal may have lifted some restrictions, but analysts say Trump has introduced new uncertainty just as foreign investment in Iran starts to build.
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Iran Needs Billions to Upgrade Gas Fields, But Will Investors Invest? - Voice of America