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By Ray Takeyh By Ray Takeyh July 5

Ray Takeyh is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

In recent congressional testimony, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson sensibly stressed that the United States should work towards support of those elements inside of Iran that would lead to a peaceful transition of that government. The commentariat was aghast, and the Islamic republic registered a formal protest note. Both parties seemed surprised that the United States has long assisted those seeking democratic change. During the Cold War, secretaries of state routinely assured those trapped behind the Iron Curtain that America supported their aspirations. Given that Iran is ruled by an aging Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the United States should be prepared for a transition of power there that may yet precipitate the collapse of the entire system.

In a region littered with failed states, Iran is often mischaracterized as an island of stability. The history of the Islamic republic, however, is a turbulent one, featuring a constant struggle between an authoritarian regime and restive population seeking democratic empowerment. When they first assumed power, the clerical oligarchs waged bloody street battles to repress other members of the revolutionary coalition who did not share their desire for a theocratic dictatorship. In the 1990s, they faced the rise of a reform movement that remains the most exhilarating attempt to harmonize religion and pluralism. The reformists spoke about reconsidering Khameneis absolutist pretensions and expanding civil society and critical media. The regime reacted with its usual mixture of terror and intimidation to eviscerate the movement. And then came the Green Revolt in summer 2009 that forever delegitimized the system and severed the bonds between state and society.

The one thing certain about Irans future is that another protest movement will rise at some point seeking to displace the regime.

Today, the Islamic republic lumbers on as the Soviet Union did during its last years. It professes an ideology that convinces no one. It commands security services that proved unreliable in the 2009 rebellion, causing the regime to deploy the Basij militias because many commanders of the Revolutionary Guards refused to shoot the protesters.

The seminaries in the shrine city of Qom appreciate the damage that the government of God has done to Islam as the mosques remain empty even during important religious commemorations. Young men dont wish to join the clergy, and women dont want to marry clerics. The system is engulfed by corruption, which is particularly problematic for a regime that bases its power on divine ordinance. And Iran just underwent a presidential election where the winner, Hassan Rouhani, promised freedoms he has no intention of delivering and further delegitimized the government by airing its dirty laundry on issues of craft and repression. Today, the Islamic republic will not be able to manage a succession to the post of the supreme leader as its factions are too divided and its public too disaffected.

The regime does, however, have one thing in its favor: its nuclear agreement with the international community (officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA.) Historically, arms-control treaties have generated their own constituency. During the 1970s, at the height of U.S.-Soviet arms-control diplomacy, influential voices in the West did not want to pressure the Kremlin for fear that it would disrupt the agreements. The Islamic republic can count on similar forbearance from critical sectors of Washington. Many will feign concern about Irans terrorism or human rights abuses, but will rebuff attempts to impose truly crippling sanctions on Tehran. The legitimacy and longevity of the regime will not be questioned by those whose foremost priority is sustaining a deficient arms-control accord. And it was this sentiment that Tillerson challenged when he called for making common cause with those struggling for freedom inside Iran. The amorality of arms control has little room for such lofty and idealistic ambitions.

The task of a judicious U.S. government today is to plan for the probable outbreak of another protest movement or the sudden passing of Khamenei that could destabilize the system to the point of collapse. How can we further sow discord in Irans vicious factional politics? How can the United States weaken the regimes already unsteady security services? This will require not just draining the Islamic republics coffers but also finding ways to empower its domestic critics. The planning for all this must start today; once the crisis breaks out, it will be too late for America to be a player.

In March 1953, when Joseph Stalin died, President Dwight Eisenhower asked to see his governments studies about how to exploit the Soviet succession crisis. There were none. An exasperated Eisenhower exclaimed, For about seven years, ever since 1946, I know that everybody who should have been concerned with such things has been sounding off on what we should do when Stalin dies. Well he did and we want to see what bright ideas were in the files of this government, what plans were laid. What we found was that the result of seven years of yapping is exactly zero. We have no plan. For his part, Tillerson has established the guidepost that should direct U.S. foreign policy. The task for the administration now is to study ways that we can take advantage of Irans looming crisis to potentially displace one of Americas most entrenched adversaries.

Continue reading here:
It's time to prepare for Iran's political collapse - Washington Post

AT FIRST, Clay Jones was flattered. Then he learned more, and was repulsed.

Now, Jones, a self-syndicated political cartoonist based in Fredericksburg, Va., is declining the honor.

Jones discovered this week that a cartoon of his lampooning the president had been awarded a citation in the Trumpism Cartoon and Caricature Contest, as announced Monday by Irans House of Cartoon in Tehran. His cartoon spoofed Time magazines 2016 selection of Trump as person of the year by drawing a comparison to Hitler, whom Time named its man of the year in1938.

Joness issue with the competition is that he now believes it is anti-American and anti-free speech.

[House of Cartoon] may have good intentions, but I dont want to be associated with them, Jones tells The Posts Comic Riffs. It can be perceived as not just an anti-Trump contest, but anti-American. Im fine with criticizing America, or even our democratic allies criticizing America. But I dont want to join our enemies in doing so.

When he entered the contest several months ago via email, Jones says, he was unaware exactly who was organizing it, or that the group had held a Holocaust cartoon contest. He says he had received an invitation to enter via Facebook.

I have an issue with a contest sponsored by the government of Iran thats critical of free speech in the United States when they dont allow freedom of speech, or freedom for the press in their nation, Jones writes on his blog. I have an issue with a contest that was a wolf whistle for anti-Semitism.

Though the Trumpism contest wasnt about any of that, its not a party I would accept an invitation to. If the Ku Klux Klan held a cartoon contest on economics, I wouldnt want to enter, and I dont want to be involved with a group that engages in anti-Semitism, no matter how their denial may be worded.

Contest organizer Masuod Shojai Tabatabaei told the AP that the goal of the contest, as well as the exhibition of some of the entries, was to show wrong behaviors by Trump in the framework of satirical portraits. The contest chose honorees in the cartoon and caricature categories from among 1,600 artworks, organizers claimed. The winner in the cartoon category was Hadi Asadi of Iran, who received a $1,500 award. He told the Associated Press that he wanted his cartoon to point out President Trumps money-mindedness and war monger nature.

The honored contest entry by Ed Wexler, via Cagle Cartoons.

The other American honoree in the cartoon contest was Ed Wexler, who is syndicated by Cagle Cartoons, and who entered a cartoon of Trump running from Russia, in a visual reference to Indiana Jones. Syndicate head Daryl Cagle is critical of Irans House of Cartoon, as well as the Federation of Cartoonists Organizations (FECO) and its ties to the Holocaust-themed cartoon contest.

Those groups offer great prizes and five-star hotel trips to international cartoonists to build an image of legitimacy for their messages of hate, Cagle says, and they have been successful in dividing the international cartooning community, which led to France Cartoons and Britains PCO [Professional Cartoonists Organization] leaving FECO in protest of FECOs continuing embrace of FECO-Iran.

When Irans House of Cartoon was officially launched two decades ago, I was one of the organizers, says Washington-based cartoonist Nikahang Kowsar, and the first exhibition was for charity to support children with cancer.

Now, Kowsar who fled Iran after being jailed for his cartoons is critical of the House of Cartoon.

Its great to make fun of world leaders and collect masterpieces, but the question is: Why doesnt the Islamic regime let Iranian cartoonists draw caricatures and cartoons of ayatollahs, the Revolutionary Guards General [Qasem] Soleimani and all those leaders in charge of massacres and mass executions in the 1980s? Kowsar says.

It saddens me when artists participate in contests held by the ruthless regime just for prize money, Kowsar continues. Im angry seeing good Iranian artists turning into bait for the regimes propaganda. The organizers are calling the whole show The Art of Resistance. Resistance to what? To freedom of speech? To democratic values?

Imagine if a cartoonist inside Iran draws something about freedom of religion and criticizes the regime for murdering converts or Bahais, adds Kowsar, who is a board member of Cartoonist Rights Network International. The cartoonist will have no choice but to leave the country before facing the interrogator and tons of charges such as corruptor on earth. Ive received death threats for less than this.

The Trumpism contest has not responded to requests for comment.

As for Joness own participation, he writes: I do not want to be with any group that engages in hatred, no matter how much fun it is to mock Donald Trump. But its not about Donald Trump for me.

Read more:

The winning entry in Trump contest shows a drooling president wearing a jacket made of dollars

See more here:
Virginia cartoonist declines award from Iran's Trump cartoon contest - Washington Post

Thousands of Iranians gathered in the giant auditorium in Villepente Exhibition Center, just outside in a massive expression of support urging the world to adopt a firm approach toward the Iranian government. The gathering featured an array of speakers from all over the world and across the political spectrum, including Saudi Prince Turki bin Faisal and a large delegation from the Syrian democratic opposition. Irans media outlets, such as Royesh Melat, reacted by criticizing the gathering.

The rally focused on the prospects for democratic change in Iran and condemned repression of human rights and record for regional intervention. Speakers also expressed their support for change and solidarity with the Iranian opposition with the rallying cry of free Iran.

The gathering, held annually near Paris, typically draws hundreds of prominent figures from all over the world, and was a display of the political power of Irans opposition.

The rally captured the growing momentum for change with respect to Iran including changes in policies and attitudes in the Middle East and Washington, and the prospects for a new approach towards the clerical establishment in Iran.

The array of speakers, which included several prominent Americans, including former Democratic party's nominee for Vice President and former US senator, Joe Lieberman, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, former attorney General Michael Mukasey, former Homeland Security Secretary, Tom Ridge, former FBI director Louis Freeh, former US Ambassador to the UN, John Bolton, Rudy Giuliani and Congressmen Ted Poe, Robert Pittenger and Tom Garretall, expressed hope that the changes taking place in the international community would culminate in a new approach towards Iran and a strategic partnership with the Iranian opposition.

Giuliani in particular expressed hope that the new administration in the United States would take steps to not only implement a new approach towards the political establishment in Iran, but to embrace the Iranian opposition in tackling a common problem. The ruling regime is in disarray and paralyzed as never before. Iranian society is simmering with discontent and the international community is finally getting closer to the reality that appeasing the ruling theocracy is misguided. said Maryam Rajavi, the President-elect of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), who struck a hopeful note for democratic change.

Rajavi highlighted the plight of Irans population, and commended Irans political prisoners for supporting the gathering from the depths of the regimes torture chambers. The sun of change is shining on Iran, she added, to an enthusiastic crowd of thousands cheering We are ready.

Rajavi added that the international community must Recognize the resistance of the Iranian people to overthrow the mullahs religious dictatorship and designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization and evict it from the entire region. Our people want a constitution based on freedom, democracy, and equality, Rajavi said.

Gingrich praised the Iranian opposition as not only a just and pure movement, praising the leadership of Maryam Rajavi by stating She is persistent in difficult times. She is a great leader. I thank each of you on her behalf to help her make her a truly historic figure.

The rally attempted to offer a clear vision of what change in Iran could look like, and the broad based from all over the world to make this vision come true. The movement believes that given the current political climate and the potential for change within the region, the prospect for a new Iran, and free Iran may be closer than ever.

It appears that Iranian leaders are more concerned about the soft power of Western powers and the opposition than their hard power. Irans Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has frequently warned about the dangers of political and cultural infiltration.

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Thousands of Iranians and International Figures at Free Iran Gathering - HuffPost

Jim Lobe comments on the bad arguments from Mark Dubowitz and Ray Takeyh Ive addressed in recent posts. He notes that their assumption that the Iranian government is on the verge of collapse doesnt seem to have anything backing it up:

Its not clear why this comparison has surfaced so abruptly. Its proponents dont cite any tangible or concrete evidence that the regime in Tehran is somehow on its last legs. But Im guessing that months of internal policy debate on Iran has finally reached the top echelons in the policy-making chaos that is the White House these days. And the hawks, encouraged by Secretary of State Rex Tillersons rather offhand statement late last month that Washington favors peaceful regime change in Iran, appear to be trying to influence the internal debate by arguing that this is Trumps opportunity to be Ronald Reagan. Indeed, this comparison is so ahistorical, so ungrounded in anything observable [bold mine-DL], that it can only be aimed at one person, someone notorious for a lack of curiosity and historical perspective, and a strong attraction to fake news that magnifies his ego and sense of destiny.

It isnt unusual for Iran hawks to make arguments without any evidence. Almost all of the arguments against the nuclear deal were riddled with bogus claims and distortions. They insisted that Iran couldnt be trusted to keep its end of the bargain, and yet Iran has been in compliance with its obligations all along. They warned that the deal would be a massive windfall for Iran, but the predicted flood of cash never materialized. Hallucinatory warnings about the expanding Iranian empire that doesnt exist have become commonplace over the last few years, and they have also been shown to be false. In the wake of the Green movement protests, Iran hawks repeatedly asserted that the U.S. had missed an opportunity for regime change, but that just showed that they badly misunderstood the political realities inside Iran. There was never any chance for regime change then, and there is unlikely to be much chance for it now. If you embrace the opposite of the conclusion that Iran hawks reach, you will be much closer to the truth all the time. The fact that they think Irans government is teetering and under great stress suggests that the opposite is the case.

The funny thing about this is that hard-liners and neoconservatives back in the 1980s were among the most vocal defenders of the view that the USSR was much stronger and more threatening than anyone else believed. They were the least likely to imagine that the Soviet system would collapse on its own, and they were constantly urging more aggressive measures because they assumed that the Soviets were in much better shape than they really were. It is rather comical that their ideological successors are now so convinced of the fragility of Irans regime, and they seem to be accepting it in the hopes that they can dupe the current administration into pursuing a policy of regime change by making it appear relatively easy.

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Iran Hawks Are Consistently Wrong About Iran - The American Conservative

Iran is targeting German companies in its bid to advance its missile program, in possible violation of an international agreement, and at least on occasion with the aid of a Chinese company, according to a damning recent report from a German intelligence agency.

The 181-page report, published last month and released Tuesday by officials from the heavily industrialized southern German state of Baden-Wrttemberg, warned that Iran is actively seeking products and scientific know-how for the field of developing weapons of mass destruction as well missile technology. The Islamic Republic is targeting German companies through various fronts, according to the report.

[Iran is seeking] products and scientific know-how for the field of developing weapons of mass destruction as well missile technology.

In one case, Iran allegedly worked through a Chinese front company to seek complex metal-producing machines from a German engineering firm. German intelligence officials blocked the sale when they told the engineering firm the merchandise was slated to be unlawfully routed to Iran.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has not stopped trying to pair missile and nuclear weapons technology, according to the report (Associated Press)

This case shows that so-called indirect deliveries across third countries is still Irans procurement strategy, wrote the intelligence officials.

Another report, released this week by Germanys Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), found the deal brokered by the Obama administration to limit Irans pursuit of nuclear weapons resulted in little or no decrease in the Islamic Republics efforts to gain technology for missiles capable of carrying warheads. But it noted that the agreement was aimed at restricting nuclear technology, not missile technology.

"The amount of evidence found for attempts to acquire proliferation-sensitive material for missile technology/the missile program, which is not covered by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, remained about the same," the report said.

The U.S. and other world powers -- including France, China, Russia and the United Kingdom -- reached an agreement with Iran in July 2015, the so-called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), to restrict Tehrans nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.

Benjamin Weinthal reports on human rights in the Middle East and is a fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Follow him on Twitter @BenWeinthal

Originally posted here:
Iran illegally seeking weapons tech from German firms, according to report - Fox News