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The cycle of protest and vicious repression is grimly familiar in the region. Irans five-day internet shutdown helped to ensure that we still know relatively little about this months events there. What we do know makes grim reading. Amnesty International says it has credible reports of at least 143 deaths since unrest broke out on 15 November, and that the true total is likely to be significantly higher. It details police firing on crowds and in some cases shooting protesters as they ran away. The regime itself boasts of having made 1,000 arrests; others suggest four times that many may have been detained.

These were widespread protests, reportedly reaching 70% of provinces. They appear to have been more in the mould of those seen in 2017 and 2018 leaderless, economically driven, and drawing in poorer voters rather than the more middle-class, urban and political green movement of 2009. According to the authorities, around 87,000 people took part, mostly unemployed young men.

The spark was the abrupt increase in petrol prices, of almost 300%. The government said it wanted to tackle fuel smuggling and give cash payments to the poorest three-quarters of Irans 80 million population. One problem is that the price hikes arrived first. Another is that, owing to official incompetence and corruption, many do not trust the authorities to deliver what they promise. A third is that in many cases the cash will not offset peoples increased fuel costs.

The broader context is the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and Americas choking of the Iranian economy, already suffering after decades of mismanagement. Inflation and unemployment have soared. The impact has not only been on the daily struggle of Iranians to get by, but also, perhaps as critically, upon their morale: the US abandonment of the JCPOA dashed many peoples last hope. The optimism and energy that surged when Hassan Rouhani signed the agreement has vanished. The Trump administrations actions have discredited the president and other reformists.

Iranians are unlikely to see significant improvements in their dire economic conditions unless this international context changes. The E3 France, Germany and the UK should continue their attempts to facilitate negotiations, however hopeless that task may seem. In the absence of progress, there is the real danger that Iran will provoke a regional crisis to draw international attention again.

Tehran will have been well prepared for these protests, given the unrest of the last two years and its role in Lebanon and Iraq, also gripped by demonstrations. Yet more dissent will surely come. Accusing the US, Britain and others of stoking unrest, as the regime has done, will do nothing to persuade people that their dissatisfaction is being addressed. Brutal crackdowns fuel their grievances.

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The Guardian view on Irans protests: unrest is crushed, unhappiness endures - The Guardian

The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) last week released a landmark report analyzing the capabilities of Irans military. In light of Irans September attacks on the Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities in eastern Saudi Arabia, the reports emphasis on Tehrans expanding cruise missile capabilities has already proven to be prescient.

The DIAs new report, titled Iran Military Power: Ensuring Regime Survival and Securing Regional Dominance, highlights Tehrans development of land-attack cruise missiles (LACMs). The report notes that Tehran has invested heavily in its domestic infrastructure, equipment, and expertise to develop increasingly capable cruise missiles.

Tehrans investment of its limited resources in LACMs is not surprising, given the challenges LACMs create for opposing air defense forces. The DIA notes that LACMs present a unique threat profile from ballistic missiles because they can fly at low altitude and attack a target from multiple directions.

This low and unpredictable flight path utilizes ground features for concealment and makes it more difficult to detect and track the cruise missile essential precursors to intercepting it. The September attacks on Abqaiq and Khurais demonstrated the value of such concealment; Iran reportedly used seven cruise missiles (along with 18 drones) to target the Saudi installations from an unexpected direction.

Significantly, the DIA reports information cutoff date was August before the September attack. This underscores the speed with which threats are evolving, and the need for redoubled U.S. efforts to understand emerging threats in order to prepare for and offset them.

According to the DIA, Irans cruise and ballistic missiles are developed by a subsidiary of Tehrans Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics, the Aerospace Industries Organization. Both the ministry and its subsidiary are subject to EU sanctions, which expire in 2023, as well as to U.S. sanctions, which have no expiration date.

In addition to drawing on Irans domestic missile production capacity, Tehrans cruise missile programs have benefitted extensively from foreign procurement. Irans LACM capability is primarily derived from the Soviet Kh-55, an air-launched cruise missile that Tehran imported in 2001 and later converted for ground-launch. This Iranian copy of the Kh-55, dubbed the Soumar, may have been involved in the Abqaiq attacks. Iran has continued to upgrade the Soumar, both for itself and its regional proxies and partners.

The DIA report notes that a key modernization goal of Irans armed forces is to [i]ncrease the accuracy, lethality, and production of ballistic and cruise missiles. The report curiously omits range, which Iranian defense officials have recently touted alongside accuracy as a goal of their cruise missile program.

Iran does have other cruise missile variants, such as anti-ship cruise missiles, which feature prominently in Tehrans maritime strategy in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. It also has air-launched and reportedly even submarine-launched cruise missiles, though their operational capacities are unknown. Nonetheless, LACMs like the Soumar and its variants fit neatly with Tehrans interest in surface-to-surface missiles that function simultaneously as weapons of war and intimidation.

Given Irans dangerous missile use and expanding capabilities, policymakers should seek to sanction Irans domestic missile supply chain and foreign nodes for procurement. At the same time, the United States should expedite and deepen cooperation with key partners such as Israel to expeditiously field more effective cruise missile defense systems to protect both forward deployed American troops and the U.S. homeland.

Behnam Ben Taleblu is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he contributes to FDDs Center on Military and Political Power (CMPP). Bradley Bowman is senior director of CMPP. For more of their policy briefs, op-eds, and research, subscribe HERE. For more from CMPP, subscribe HERE. Follow Bradley on Twitter @Brad_L_Bowman. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD and @FDD_CMPP. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

This article originally appeared on the Foundation for Defense of Democracies website.

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New Intelligence Report Shows That Iran's Missiles Are Serious Business - The National Interest Online

Updated 29 November 2019:

The confirmed number of protesters killed in Iran has risen to at least 161 protesters, according to credible reports received by Amnesty International. The real death toll is likely to be significantly higher.

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The international community must denounce the intentional lethal use of force by Iranian security forces that has resulted in the killings of at least 143 protesters since demonstrations broke out on 15 November, Amnesty International said today.

According to credible reports received by the organization, at least 143 people were killed. The deaths have resulted almost entirely from the use of firearms. One man was reported to have died after inhaling tear gas, another after being beaten. Amnesty International believes that the death toll is significantly higher and is continuing to investigate.

The rising death toll is an alarming indication of just how ruthless the treatment of unarmed protesters has been by the Iranian authorities and reveals their appalling assault on human life, said Philip Luther, Research and Advocacy Director for the Middle East and North Africa at Amnesty International.

So far, while the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, the EU and a number of states have condemned what they have described as apparent use of excessive force, these responses have failed to explicitly acknowledge the use of lethal force to kill protesters, despite mounting evidence.

The international communitys cautious and muted response to the unlawful killing of protesters is woefully inadequate. They must condemn these killings in the strongest possible terms and describe these events for what they are the deadly and wholly unwarranted use of force to crush dissent, said Philip Luther.

The international communitys cautious and muted response to the unlawful killing of protesters is woefully inadequate. They must condemn these killings in the strongest possible terms and describe these events for what they are the deadly and wholly unwarranted use of force to crush dissent

Horrific accounts from eyewitnesses and victims relatives on the ground, information gathered from human rights activists and journalists outside Iran and extensive video footage analysed by Amnesty Internationals Digital Verification Corps provide clear evidence that Iranian security forces have been intentionally using firearms against unarmed protesters who posed no threat to life.

Verified videos show security forces deliberately shooting unarmed protesters from a short distance. In some cases, protesters were shot while they were running away and clearly posed no threat to the security forces. Other videos show security forces shooting towards protesters from rooftops of state buildings including a justice department building.

Security forces responsible for the crackdown include Irans police force, the Revolutionary Guards and plain-clothes agents from the Basij paramilitary force and others.

Amnesty International has received information indicating that, in many cases, the Iranian authorities have refused to return victims bodies to their families and, in some, security forces have removed dead bodies from morgues and transferred them to unknown locations.

In some cases, there are shocking reports that, when the authorities have returned victims bodies to their families, they have demanded payment citing several reasons, including the cost of the bullet that killed their loved one or compensation for property destroyed during the protests; these allegations have been denied by at least one official in Khuzestan province.In a pattern consistent with previous protester killings, the authorities have threatened victims families with arrest if they hold funerals for their loved ones or to speak to media.

Amnesty International has also received reports of the authorities moving injured protesters from hospitals to detention facilities, putting their lives at risk by denying them potentially life-saving medical care.

Under international law, security forces may only resort to the use of lethal force when strictly unavoidable to protect against imminent threat of death or serious injury.

Even if a small minority of protesters resort to violence, security forces must always exercise restraint and use no more force than is strictly necessary, proportionate and lawful in response to the violence they are facing.

Background:

Below is a breakdown, by province, of the 143 deaths reported so far to Amnesty International. The organization obtained the information from reports whose credibility and reliability it has ascertained by interviewing victims relatives, journalists and human rights activists involved in gathering them. It has then crosschecked the information.

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World must condemn use of lethal force in Iran - Amnesty International

Iranian leaders and their allies are counting on stamina to weather the storm and are hoping demonstrators energy and fervour will wane as the year draws to a close. In Iran, Iraq and Lebanon, the Iranian regimes priority is securing its survival and preventing the three uprisings from bearing fruit by any means necessary whatever the cost.

Russia remains committed to its Iranian ally and is confident of its promise to stop the spread of instability. What is new is the shift in the European position with regards to Iran. The Europeans have run out of patience with Irans violations, not just in terms of the 2015 nuclear deal but also the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps's direct participation in staging riots, and stoking sectarianism and violence against peaceful protests in Lebanon, from its outposts in Syria and the Bekaa Valley.

This has made countries like Germany draw closer to the US position, despite previous opposition, causing concern and anger among the ranks of the Iranian leadership. A few days ago, German daily Der Spiegel reported that the nations interior ministry had requested an inquiry into Hezbollahs activities, with an agreement reached by the government in Berlin to impose a total ban on the organisation in Germany next week. The report said Germany would treat members of Hezbollah members as it treats ISIS.

Iran has decided to take a rigid, escalatory and uncompromising approach

For 18 months, US ambassador to Berlin Richard Grenell sought to persuade European states to adopt the American perspective on Iranian and Hezbollah activities; the new policy in Germany bears his hallmarks. Iran will undoubtedly be furious. The leadership in Tehran spared no effort in convincing the Europeans to push for exemptions from US sanctions but has since been steadily let down as European banks and businesses refused to deal with the regime, fearing they too would be sanctioned. The Iranians have used a combination of blackmail and threats, and a pattern of escalation and de-escalation, aware that a US-European alliance would further increase their isolation. Meanwhile, as protests rage on home turf, sources say the regime in Tehran is determined to reject any dialogue with demonstrators. Irans leaders are convinced the protests in Lebanon will die down in a matter of weeks. In short, Iran has decided to take a rigid, escalatory and uncompromising approach.

The Europeans are concerned about a possible Iranian assault of the level and magnitude of the attack on Saudi Aramco facilities. They are also concerned about Iran clamping down on demonstrations at home and dragging the Lebanese uprising into violence by engineering chaos that would consolidate Hezbollahs control of the country. Such actions would inevitably impact relations.

Berlin is resentful of Iranian threats and blackmails against Germany, France and Britain, all signatories of the nuclear deal. The German government believes the time has come to publicly call out Iranian violations of the deal instead of continuing to try to salvage it. After Us President Donald Trump walked out last year, the deal can no longer be revived, given the inability of European powers to compel businesses to trade under the Instex special purpose vehicle designed to bypass sanctions. Irans nuclear enrichment actions and ballistic missile programme have driven another nail into the deals coffin. The IRGCs involvement in the suppression of protests in the region could mobilise public opinion in Europe against the Iranian regimes authoritarianism and expansionism.

Mr Trump is said to be annoyed by attempts by French President Emmanuel Macron to ingratiate himself as mediator with Tehran while suggesting lifting sanctions. The source said: A US source said the administration was willing to talk but negotiations would not be conditional on lifting or easing sanctions.

The Trump administration will continue using sanctions as a tool to tame, isolate, contain and punish the regime in Iran. If European pressures on the regime increase, its isolation and financial hardship will only deepen. But the question is: what will its leaders then do?

In Lebanon, the Iranian leadership thinks the crisis will not last longer than another month due to fatigue and the impasse that protests have reached

In Iraq, the situation looks extremely complex and difficult for Iran, with no light at the end of the tunnel as protests continue and the death toll rises. Iranians are hurting themselves and their neighbour by refusing to allow Iraq to become a normal country. The regimes logic does not allow for a withdrawal from Iraq or the disbanding of the Popular Mobilisation Forces. The bloodshed will continue and the risk of a US-Iranian military confrontation will increase, either because of deliberate provocation by the Iranians to draw Mr Trump into conflict or as a result of an incident involving US forces in Iraq.

In Lebanon, the Iranian leadership thinks the crisis will not last longer than another month due to fatigue and the impasse that protests have reached. The Iranian leadership is betting protesters endurance will decrease as the ruling class plays a waiting game.

So far Washington has succeeded in ensuring European support for the demands of the uprising, led by the need to form a government of technocrats rather than politicians affiliated to traditional parties under the dominance of Hezbollah and the IRGC.

The situation is now very delicate. If Iran succeeds in suppressing the Lebanese uprising, the ruling class will return with a vengeance and retaliate against those who dared to question them and call for them to be held accountable.

Western powers are waking up to the fact the key to protecting Lebanon from chaos and total collapse is to pressure and punish Iran and its proxies. But accountability will take time. It is therefore necessary to be patient and think pragmatically and strategically if the uprising is to achieve its lofty goals.

Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute

Updated: November 30, 2019 07:48 PM

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Iranian regime's priority is ensuring its survival and quashing regional protests - The National

Fariba Nafissi had been an executive at IKEA in Burbank for almost 20 years when she received one of lifes most jarring wake-up calls. Shed planned a trip to visit Iran, her home country, with her cousin Shahroo, whod gone ahead a couple of weeks early. Before Nafissi arrived, Shahroo died in her sleep. Nafissi was soon asking questions about what gave her life the most meaning.

Baking was part of the answer. Nafissi grew up in Kerman, a city in the southeast of Iran on the edge of the Lut desert. Dates are a major local crop; she remembers her father having a bowl of yogurt with dates as part of his lunch every day.

One of the regions distinctive treats is kolompeh, a soft, golden cookie filled with dates, nuts and spices. Bakers use special stamps to create patterns in the dough. Four years ago Nafissi began selling kolompeh on Etsy. Their beautiful shape and soothing flavors swiftly found an audience, and Nafissi established ZoZo Baking.

Her retailing has mostly been online, but in September Nafissi opened her first store in the quiet concrete caverns of the Simi Valley Shopping Center, behind a California Pizza Kitchen. The space is part production facility and part coffee shop, with a communal table and couch and corners with small displays of silver jewelry, books on Persian cooking and brightly colored tableware for sale. You can order properly thick Turkish coffee with your treats, and also espresso and scented teas.

The counter in the back right of the store exhibits Nafissis full repertoire of Iranian baked goods. There are stacks of nan-e nokhodchi, chickpea flour cookies pressed into clover shapes; their pleasantly sandy texture dissolves on the tongue, leaving behind cardamoms sweet musk. Nafissi describes qhotabs as mini hand pies, thumb-sized pastries crammed with walnut paste and spices. She serves her version of baklava in tiny diamonds; the dough is thicker than the Greek or Lebanese phyllo-based variations, and rose water gently scents the pistachio or almond fillings.

Fariba Nafissi at her store, Zozo Baking, in Simi Valley.

(Bill Addison / Los Angeles Times)

Kolompeh command center-stage, fanned out on a large platter. I want to snatch them by the fistful. The stamp gives their round borders a fluted appearance; in the center swirl patterns of paisley and tiny spheres the size of pearl couscous.

Nafissi creates familiar American flavor combinations apple-cinnamon, blueberry-almond, strawberry, a seasonal cranberry number shes been tinkering with recently but her traditional kolompeh is by far the most wonderful. Yogurt and egg yolk make the dough tender; the edges are delicate and crumbly. She uses no other sweetener beyond the dates. Saffron gives the cookie its sunny color, and the spice mix lights up the brain: sparks from cinnamon and cloves, a floral hit from rose petal, a sneaky micro-pinch of cumin that intensifies the other flavors. Ground pistachios add a finale of gentle crunch.

Nafissis store is charming, and the trek from central Los Angeles to Simi Valley includes some beautiful mountain vistas along the highways. Its also easy to order kolompeh and other pastries from her online site. Id never tried a kolompeh before last week but theyre now my go-to food gift this season.

Fresas con natas, a strawberry dessert at Somni.

(Mariah Tauger/Los Angeles Times)

I reviewed one of the most expensive and outrageous restaurants in Los Angeles this week: Jos Andrs Somni in the SLS Beverly Hills. Its a big splurge, and a hard-to-get reservation; its also a beguiling, beautiful piece of the Los Angeles dining jigsaw.

Fellow critic Patricia Escrcega heads to Sawtelles Mogu Mogu to illuminate the style of brothless ramen called mazemen.

This week on Lucas Kwan Petersons Off Menu: building community through the foodways of skid row, the epicenter of L.A.s homelessness crisis.

Euno Lee has a guide to Orange Countys Koreatown in Garden Grove.

Genevieve Ko brings us the recipe for APLs lemony kale salad.

And a final word on Thanksgiving dinner this year from culture columnist and critic Mary McNamara.

Also, dont forget: The Times is throwing an event to celebrate the release of this years 101 Best Restaurants on Monday, Dec. 9! The bash, held this year at the Vibiana downtown, includes food from 30 of the restaurants that made the list. Ill be hiding my face and not in attendance, but Food editor Peter Meehan will be there to present the list.

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Newsletter: The Iranian date cookie that's a gift to Los Angeles - Los Angeles Times