Archive for the ‘Iran’ Category

Three key insights for US policy in light of recent escalation with Iran – Brookings Institution

U.S.-Iran dynamics have grown trickier in the wake of the killing of Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani. In this tense context,three key insights emerge: that U.S. strategy is lacking, that the Middle East landscape increasingly favors Iran, and that Washington needs to find ways to de-prioritize the region.

1U.S. strategy vis--vis Iran is convoluted and clunky. The Trump administration has outlined its vision of a fundamentally different Iranian regime through its maximum pressure campaign. Yet it has attempted this policy while simultaneously pursuing contradictory efforts.

On the one hand, the administration has promoted aNational Security Strategyand aNational Defense Strategyfocused on great-power competition with China and Russia. On the other, its tactics for pursuing its objective with Iran lack a clear, unified strategy as illustrated by pulling out of the nuclear agreement (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA) absent any effort to build a pathway or to lay the groundwork for a new deal while failing to effectively lead and mobilize an international coalition to pressure Iran. The administration haspromulgated vague, contradictory, andad hoc responses to Iranian aggression from leaping up the escalation ladder by killing Qassem Soleimani while confusingly lurching in the aborted response last summer when Iran shot down a U.S. drone.

To be sure, Qassem Soleimani had a proven record of harming U.S. interests in the Middle East over decades, given his leadership of Irans regional activities. One cannot and should not underestimate the (warranted) vitriol that current and former national security policymakers have toward him. Yet it remains unclearwhyhe was killed, as well as why at that time and in that place.

Furthermore, the counter-ISIS fight has been severely disrupted over the last few weeks as the Iraqis, among other coalition members, appear uncertain about cooperation. Above all, the confusing overall U.S. approach is read by the Iranians as feckless, by regional partners and European and Asian allies as fickle, and by other U.S. adversaries like North Korea as presenting opportunities for mischief.

For those who questionwhether missile salvos by the Iranian militaryconstituted thesum totalof Irans retaliation for the Soleimani killing, lets be clear: Though the timing and the target of future action are uncertain, there should be no doubt that further Iranian response will follow. We have reached the end of the beginning of this escalatory cycle. That response could take the form of attacks by Iranian clients such as Hezbollah against soft targets frequented by U.S. military personnel, or directly against U.S. diplomatic or civilian personnel across the Gulf or the Levant, for example. It betrays a fundamental misunderstandingto say Iran has been deterredfrom a further state military response; that is not Tehrans comparative advantage, nor would it ever represent the thrust of its retaliation given the sophisticated and capable clients it has built around the region.

2The Middle East is moving along a trajectory that increasingly favors Tehran. In Syria, Iran has managed with heavy support from Russia and Hezbollah, among others to keep the despotic leader, Bashar Assad, in power. In Lebanon, the new government further empowers Hezbollah and Damascus, and it is unlikely to take real steps to prevent the economy from further tanking or to address protesters valid frustrations. In Iraq, key constituencies are seriously reconsidering the U.S. military presence. In Yemen, the Saudis and the Emiratis spent years battling the Houthis, with little to show for it besides horrific Yemeni losses and Iranian delight.

Across the region, Irans clients are only growing in capacity and capability. It is worth recalling that the regime has always found ways to fund its priorities such as building Hezbollah in the throes of Irans 8-year war with Iraq and will continue to do so. To be sure,domestic discontent inside Iranand in places like Lebanon are certainly unhelpful for the regime in Tehran, as are the sanctions draining the Iranian economy, but overall, the trajectory is increasingly positive for Iran.

However, there are steps the United States can take to adjust this trajectory and regain influence, particularly regarding Lebanon and the Gulf. Hezbollah and Iran would be overjoyed if the United States gave up on Lebanon.The United Statesshould maintain its involvement there, particularly the relationship with the Lebanese military, but must be cognizant that the new Lebanese government is abysmal. It is essential to watch closely as the military and the government sniff around for a new rapprochement, to ensure that the military continues to tackle threats of mutual concern, and to increase force protection for American military and diplomatic officials in Lebanon. The United States should also be willing to excoriate Lebanese leaders who further undermine Lebanese sovereignty, such as sanctioning Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, who personally facilitated Hezbollahs increasingly broad-based political gains.

Across the Gulf, ratcheting down tensions is a shrewd move. Key Gulf states like the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are seeking accommodation with the Iranians. The United States should also encourage an end to the Saudi spat with Qatar and urge the Saudis to find a path out of the Yemen war. Above all, the United States should normalize the U.S.-Saudi relationship rather than prioritize it, which requires a hard look at U.S. interests vis--vis Riyadh and serious consideration of how best to encourage positive behavior while punishing problematic behavior. All of these steps will both decrease dangerously high pressures while further enabling the United States to focus on the fundamental challenges.

3The United States must find a way tomeaningfully deprioritize the Middle East.Although the real geopolitical challenge going forward is posed by China, the United States remains trapped in Middle East purgatory.On the tombstone of the post-9/11 wars will be written some elaborate combination of perplexity over why they have lasted so long; haziness over their focus; and ambiguity and anxiety over the balance sheet of what they achieved, prevented, and exacerbated.

And yet Americas over-militarized approach to the region continues. At least20,000 new U.S. military forceshave been sent in recent months, bringing thetotal estimate of U.S. military personnel in the Middle East to 80,000. This increase notably comes at a time when theU.S. diplomatic presence is plummeting in places like Iraq.

The administrations maximum pressure campaign is resulting in maximum focus on Iran. There are, of course, attendant opportunity costs for doing so. The geopolitical challenge posed by China the primary threat to global order is receiving too little time, attention, and resources.

While the United States should depart Middle East purgatory, it should not do so in a way that benefits the Russians. The Russians, not the Americans, have committed to consistent diplomatic offensives across the region. However, the United States can deprioritize the region without exacerbating Russian influence by deepening its diplomatic posture, convening like-minded and productive coalitions, and making it harder for Russia rely on the benefits of a regional security order managed by the United States.

The dynamics of the U.S.-Iran relationship are inextricably linked to regional stability and security. The U.S. government should examine the following areas of concern:

Strategy and execution:Given that U.S. strategy toward Iran and the Middle East is convoluted, the administration should clarify what it is trying to achieve, why it is trying to do so, and above all, how it will do so.

Questions to consider include: What is the administration seeking to achieve in its policy vis--vis Iran and the broader Middle East? How does it plan to implement this strategy particularly given the profound opportunity costs in light of the high price of geopolitical competition with China and Russia? And, how is its messaging effectively supporting strategy execution?

Counter-ISIS campaign and coalition: The conflagration between the United States and Iran has imperiled the fight against ISIS and fueled discontent among some Iraqis.

Questions to consider include: How and in what ways has the counter-ISIS campaign and coalition been degraded by the latest escalation between the U.S. and Iran? What role can Congress play to deepen U.S. engagement and consultation with key coalition members above all, the Iraqi government?

A deal in disarray: Detonating U.S. participation in the nuclear agreement rather than considering ways to improve it has resulted in the United States dividing itself from its fellow signatories while Iran pursues its own agenda.

Questions to consider include: What pathways may succeed for building a level of agreement between Iran and key international actors to minimize its nuclear program?

U.S. regional presence and purpose: For two decades, the United States has overwhelmingly relied on a military approach to the Middle East and a flawed one at that. The administration is doubling down on that approach as the militarys posture has skyrocketed, despite little evidence that the swelling numbers of U.S. troops are effectively deterring threats. If the U.S. military is forced to suddenly depart from Iraq, the U.S. governments ability to influence and act will be severely handcuffed, to say nothing of the welcome that its departure would receive from ISIS and Iran. And in critical places like Syria, the militarys mission is worryingly opaque and colored by announcements of and occasionally execution of precipitous redeployments without serious consultation of this body or of key coalition members. Above all, this emphasis on a military approach has come at the expense of a diplomatic approach as the U.S. diplomatic presence regionally particularly in Iraq has been severely degraded. The U.S. militaryposture in the region should be streamlined, particularly forces across the Gulf in places like Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, increasingly rely on warm rather than hot bases, and the various headquarters should be substantially reduced.

Questions to consider include: Under what conditions does the administration plan to redeploy the 20,000 new U.S. military personnel deployed to the Middle East? How does the administration plan to generate those conditions for withdrawal? How can the United States right-size its regional military posture and appropriately tailor it to countering likely threats?How can it effectively streamline its Middle East military posture in light of the global context? How can it grow and rely on a more robust diplomatic presence in the region?

In sum, the lack of Middle East security and stability is threatening to monopolize U.S. national security resources. There are no simple solutions. However, some steps are overdue in leading U.S. strategy toward the Middle East in a more coherent and sustainable direction.

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Three key insights for US policy in light of recent escalation with Iran - Brookings Institution

The painful truth for Saudi Arabia: it needs the Iranian regime to survive – The Guardian

In a video animation released in December 2017 the Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, oversees an invasion of Iran after Iranian boats attack a Saudi humanitarian ship. At the end of the video, Saudi troops storm a military compound where a haggard, trembling Qassem Suleimani, the commander of the Quds force, surrenders on his knees. The video, created by an outfit calling itself Saudi Strike Force, was produced in multiple languages including Mandarin and has been viewed more than 1.5m times.

Clamouring for tough action against Iran, then for de-escalation has characterised the Saudi-Iran rivalry since 1979

In real life, Suleimani is now dead, killed not by the Saudis but in a US strike on 3 January outside Baghdad airport, having just returned from Lebanon and Syria on one of his many missions as the architect of Irans regional power base.

Saudis on Twitter were gleeful and official Saudi media were jubilant, declaring in al-Riyadh newspaper that a new decade had started for the region as Irans dark shadow receded. If Saudi officials celebrated, they did so quietly, relieved Suleimani was dead, and even more relieved they didnt have to do it themselves, but wary of Iranian retaliation. There were calls for quick de-escalation, and within three days the crown princes brother and deputy minister of defence, Khalid bin Salman, travelled to Washington DC for meetings at the White House.

This pattern of clamouring for tough action against Iran and then calling for de-escalation has characterised the Saudi-Iran rivalry since the Iranian revolution of 1979. That year is remembered mostly as the moment when Iran and the US became enemies in the wake of the US embassy hostage crisis in November. But the relationship between Tehran and Riyadh was also transformed. The two countries, once friendly rivals and pillars of US efforts to contain Soviet influence in the region, became enemies when Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the ultimate leader of the revolution, began to challenge the Saudis in their role as leaders of the Muslim world and custodians of the two holy sites of Islam, Mecca and Medina.

The rivalry has become an intrinsic part of US-Iran enmity over the past 40 years, creating a threesome in which Saudi Arabia plays the role of indispensable counterweight to Tehran. But Saudi Arabia both thrives off this state of affairs and feeds it. As much as the kingdom fears Iran, its status as Americas special friend in the region has become tied to the continuation of the regime in Tehran.

This explains why Riyadh was so angry with Barack Obama for pursuing detente with Iran, worried it would undermine its own place in the region. This dependence has become even more important at a time when the US-Saudi relationship is fraught with tensions over the alleged hacking of Amazon president Jeff Bezoss phone by bin Salman and the killing of the Washington Post columnist and Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. All of Saudi Arabias faults and excesses seem to be excused as long as the Trump administration is focused on pressuring Iran.

But Saudi Arabia now finds itself with a conundrum. The kingdom wants Iran beaten up but not broken, and it relies on others to do the job because it is not up to the task not militarily and not from a strategic planning perspective. However, Saudi Arabia has found that the Trump administration may be a fickle friend when it comes to defending the kingdom in case of an Iranian attack, as happened in September 2019, when a suspected Iranian drone struck Saudi oil facilities. The US responded with a lot of heat but little fire: there was no US retaliation on behalf of Saudi Arabia. And though the Trump administration has since deployed thousands of additional troops to the kingdom, the Saudis still felt vulnerable. This is why, within a month of the attack on the Saudi Aramco oil processing facilities, the Saudis were exploring indirect talks with Iran, with the help of Iraq and Pakistan, to try to reduce tensions.

After the killing of Suleimani, the Saudi calls for de-escalation fit the same pattern. Having watched with alarm as Iran expanded its influence in the region over the past few years, thanks in large parts to Suleimani, the kingdom will now be hoping theres an opportunity for them: no matter how many of Suleimanis stratagems have been institutionalised, his successor will not be as efficient. Is there room to engage with Shia leaders in Iraq who would like to distance themselves from Iran? Is this the moment to squeeze a compromise out of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Irans mostly successful proxy?

The Iranian commander had become the young crown princes nemesis, one who in all probability inspired some jealousy and admiration for having achieved what bin Salman felt the kingdom has never quite mastered: a regional strategy that inspires both fear and respect with a solid network of loyal proxies and allies.

The bombast of the 2017 animation, which showcases Saudi Arabias extensive and expensive military arsenal, reflects the fantasy that Prince Mohammed indulged in when he first rose to power between 2015 and 2017, trying his hand at an uncharacteristically muscular Saudi foreign policy as he launched wars and embargoes. The video starts with a sentence from an interview that Prince Mohammed gave to the Saudi state television, al-Ekhbariyya, in May 2017 during which he said: We will not wait until the fight is in Saudi Arabia we will bring the fight to Iran.

By now, the crown prince has been sobered somewhat by the realisation that his swagger has delivered nothing on the regional front except a devastating war in Yemen and a useless embargo on Qatar. Even worse, it was Iran that brought the war to Saudi Arabia with the Aramco attack.

Now that the US is showing its teeth with the killing of Suleimani and more sanctions on Iran, Saudi Arabia may feel reassured, but it cannot be certain whether there is a new, coherent Trump policy or this is a one-off that will leave them exposed again the next time Iran lashes out.

As protests continue in Iran and the Trump administration ramps up pressure on Tehran, choking it economically, talk of regime change or collapse is in the air again. Saudis are also watching with trepidation. At the end of the video animation, Saudi forces are welcomed as saviours in Tehran as citizens wave the Saudi flag a fantasy if ever there was one. In real life, not only would Saudi troops be unwelcome in Iran, but actually the kingdom needs the current Iranian regime to survive.

Kim Ghattas is a senior fellow at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and author of Black Wave

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The painful truth for Saudi Arabia: it needs the Iranian regime to survive - The Guardian

‘Snake’ ransomware, targeting industrial processes, is linked to Iran – The Union Leader

An Israeli cybersecurity firm has identified a new type of ransomware that it believes was created by Iran and has the ability to lock up or even delete industrial control systems.

Tel Aviv-based Otorio, a cybersecurity firm which specializes in industrial control systems (ICS), said that the ransomware called "Snake," like others of its kind, encrypts programs and documents on infected machines. But it also removes all file copies from infected stations, preventing the victims from recovering encrypted files.

Snake searches for hundreds of specific programs -- including many industrial processes that belong to General Electric Co. -- to terminate them and allow it to encrypt the files, Otorio said.

"Deleting or locking targeted ICS processes would prohibit manufacturing teams from accessing vital production-related processes including analytics, configuration and control," Otorio said in a statement. "This is the equivalent of both blindfolding a driver and then taking away the steering wheel."

Multiple calls to the Iranian Foreign Ministry went unanswered.

In a statement, a General Electric representative said, "GE is aware of reports of a ransomware family with an industrial control system specific functionality. Based on our understanding, the ransomware is not exclusively targeting GE's ICS products, and it does not target a specific vulnerability in GE's ICS products."

GE would work with customers to provide support as needed, the representative said.

Otorio researchers began investigating the appearance of a new ransomware in mid-December and soon realized it was one of the first designed to target the industrial sector. As they dug further, the researchers found that Bahrain Petroleum Co. -- known as Bapco for short -- was potentially vulnerable to this new cyber threat.

Not only does Bapco use GE equipment, its name was found in the malware's code, Otorio said.

"There are findings and fingerprints inside the malware that when taken into account with the circumstances surrounding this campaign make it highly unreasonable that Snake was carried out by a different actor other than Iran," the Otorio report said.

Boosting the researchers' confidence that the Snake originated in Iran was an alleged separate attack on Bapco carried out in parallel with the finding of Snake.

"It is highly unlikely that a Gulf-area company will be attacked by two different potent actors, each targeting a different part of the organization at the same time," the researchers said in an email.

Multiple calls to Bapco went unanswered.

Otorio Chief Executive Officer Danny Bren, former joint chief of cyber defense in the Israeli military, said that an Iranian choice of Bapco as a potential target wouldn't be incidental.

"The target was picked carefully because they want to change oil prices," he said. "This is financial warfare. The world is putting a lot of financial tension on Iran and they are reacting with the same tool."

Former U.S. officials and security experts have expressed concern that Iran may be considering a cyber-attack against the U.S. or its allies after an American airstrike in Baghdad earlier this month killed Qassem Soleimani, the Iranian major general who led the Islamic Revolutionary Guard's Quds force. Iran holds an arsenal of malware, and Otorio said Snake was likely created before the general's assassination.

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'Snake' ransomware, targeting industrial processes, is linked to Iran - The Union Leader

Fear Of War With Iran Once Dominated Headlines. What’s Happening Now? – WBUR

Just a few weeks ago, the U.S. assassinated an Iranian general, Iran accidentally shot down a Ukrainian passenger jet and protesters took to the streets of Iran. So where are we now? We check in.

Farnaz Fassihi, reporter for the New York Times covering Iran. (@farnazfassihi)

Suzanne Maloney, deputy director of the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution. (@MaloneySuzanne)

Nicolas Pelham, middle east corespondent for The Economist. (@TheEconomist)

1843 Magazine: "Trapped in Iran" "I was paying my bill at the hotel when they came. There were seven of them, stiff and formal in plain-clothes. 'Mr Pelham?' asked the shortest one and presented me with a hand-written document in Farsi. 'Its been signed by a judge,' he said. 'It entitles us to detain you for 48 hours.' He paused to allow the information to register on my face. 'It might be less,' he added. 'We just need you to answer a few questions.'

"He gave me a choice. Either I could be questioned in the hotel or in their car on the way to the airport. 'You might even make the plane,' he said. Almost automatically, I asked to see a lawyer or a diplomatic representative. He flicked his wrist, indicating that this was unnecessary. 'All we want to know is a little bit more about your trip. Theres no need to delay or complicate things.'

"It was 7.30pm. My plane left in four hours and the airport was over an hours drive from Tehran. The officials ushered me into a small office in the hotel and crowded around my chair."

The New York Times: "Anatomy of a Lie: How Iran Covered Up the Downing of an Airliner" "When the Revolutionary Guards officer spotted what he thought was an unidentified aircraft near Tehrans international airport, he had seconds to decide whether to pull the trigger.

"Iran had just fired a barrage of ballistic missiles at American forces, the country was on high alert for an American counterattack, and the Iranian military was warning of incoming cruise missiles. The officer tried to reach the command center for authorization to shoot but couldnt get through. So he fired an antiaircraft missile. Then another.

"The plane, which turned out to be a Ukrainian jetliner with 176 people on board, crashed and exploded in a ball of fire.Within minutes, the top commanders of Irans Revolutionary Guards realized what they had done. And at that moment, they began to cover it up."

CNN International: "First on CNN: 50 US service members diagnosed with traumatic brain injuries after Iranian missile strike" "Fifty US military personnel have now been diagnosed with concussions and traumatic brain injuries following the Iranian missile attack on US forces in Iraq earlier this month, according to a statement Tuesday from the Pentagon.

"That's an increase of 16 from late last week when the Pentagon said 34 cases had been diagnosed. 'As of today, 50 U.S. service members have been diagnosed with TBI,' Pentagon spokesman Lt. Col. Thomas Campbell said in the statement.

"'Of these 50, 31 total service members were treated in Iraq and returned to duty, including 15 of the additional service members who have been diagnosed since the previous report. 18 service members have been transported to Germany for further evaluation and treatment. This is an increase of one service member from the previous report. As previously reported, one service member had been transported to Kuwait and has since returned to duty,' the statement added."

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Fear Of War With Iran Once Dominated Headlines. What's Happening Now? - WBUR

Trapped in Iran – The Economist

Jan 28th 2020

This piece is from 1843, our sister magazine of ideas, lifestyle and culture

I WAS PAYING my bill at the hotel when they came. There were seven of them, stiff and formal in plain-clothes. Mr Pelham? asked the shortest one and presented me with a hand-written document in Farsi. Its been signed by a judge, he said. It entitles us to detain you for 48 hours. He paused to allow the information to register on my face. It might be less, he added. We just need you to answer a few questions.

He gave me a choice. Either I could be questioned in the hotel or in their car on the way to the airport. You might even make the plane, he said. Almost automatically, I asked to see a lawyer or a diplomatic representative. He flicked his wrist, indicating that this was unnecessary. All we want to know is a little bit more about your trip. Theres no need to delay or complicate things.

It was 7.30pm. My plane left in four hours and the airport was over an hours drive from Tehran. The officials ushered me into a small office in the hotel and crowded around my chair.

Your mobile phone and laptop, please.

I pointed to the bag lying against the opposite wall.

Are there more?

I took a second phone out of my pocket.

The shortest man was in charge. He wore a dark, oversized jacket and trousers. His wavy hair was greasy and his face was lined. He bobbed up and down on a chair and patted my knee, though it was unclear whether he meant to reassure or threaten me.

The guards rifled through my books and notes. They held up a piece of paper with jottings on it from a previous trip and asked me to explain what I had written. I tried to hide my alarm when I saw that my eight-year-old son had stencilled large Hebrew letters on the back. How could I have brought that with me? I asked myself. But if they noticed the Hebrew, they said nothing.

I asked to go to the toilet. Like a child, I wanted to escape the tension in the room. I needed to calm myself by breathing deeply. That day, in a taxi back to my hotel, I had flicked through my emails and read that a number of travellers, including a French-Iranian academic from Sciences Po in Paris, had recently been detained in Iran on the pretext of violating state security. And now here I was.

The largest of the men walked closely behind me as we descended to the basement toilet. He gesticulated for me to leave the door open.

After I returned upstairs, I was led to the reception desk to finish paying my bill. Two black saloons were waiting outside and I was directed into the rear one. Guards wedged me in on either side and we pulled off.

The interrogation began as we drove. If anything, the officials interest in me was flattering rather than scary. After decades of being the interviewer, I had been promoted to being the interviewee. No one had ever found me so interesting before.

The short man asked me about my family, my education, the countries Id visited and the languages I spoke. I told them Arabic, French and, after a pause, Hebrew. I was sure that this wasnt news to them. They wanted to know how many times I had been to Israel. And Palestine, I added, to emphasise my impartiality. A radio crackled with static.

I was relieved when we arrived at the airport to be reunited with my bags. Just under two hours had elapsed by this point. But instead of checking in, I was taken to an office at the back of the airport hall with a big glass window overlooking the departure lounge. Polystyrene containers filled with half-chewed chicken bones and pellets of saffron rice lay on chairs lining the walls.

The status of those who had taken me was becoming evident they had the run of the states vital infrastructure. A tall, bulky man, more suave than the others, was introduced to me as the doctor. He looked weary and irritated.

Your phone password, please, said the short man.

I told him that I always used my thumb print.

A hint of impatience followed almost immediately.

There isnt much time, if you want to catch your plane.

I made a show of racking my brain and offered several phone passcodes, none of which worked. I had an app on my phone, which many foreign correspondents use, that notified my editors of my location every 20 minutes, in order to detect any unusual activity. I wondered if they had picked up anything.

One last chance, said the doctor.

This time, the code worked.

Youre not co-operating, he said with a frown. Its not a game. Theres not much time.

I heard the last call for the Doha flight. Were going, I was told. I was shocked at how easy it had all been and wondered where my ticket was. The short man escorted me away with his entourage. I could see the departure gate to the left of the check-in counters. We turned right.

The pace reached a frog march. Two men in front, two behind, past the plastic barricades separating check-in from the departure-hall entrance, past the X-ray machines and outside to the car drop-off. Perhaps they know a shortcut, I thought. An older, more battered car awaited us. I had been downgraded.

As we sped off, a blindfold was put on me. If I lifted my head slightly, I could just about make out my feet. After 15 minutes of chaotic driving, I was helped out of the car and led across the threshold of a building. When the mask was removed, I found myself in another office. I made a number of attempts to ask why I was being held. Each question was met with an order.

Speak in Farsi, I kept being told. You know Farsi, dont you?

I insisted, apologetically, that I didnt.

Do you know the Koran? asked one gruff guard, whom I would later come to know as Ali.

Give me refuge in God from the accursed Satan, I replied, quoting the liturgical Arabic phrase that precedes the recitation of the sacred text. He seemed amused.

Youre taking hostages, I said. Why are you doing this?

Wait, he replied (this turned out to be his favourite word). Other guards brought in kebabs in polystyrene boxes.

I dont eat meat, I said huffily.

As a substitute, I was offered coarse digestives and tea in a thin plastic cup that was too hot to hold. I was torn between anxiety and the need to get these people on side. I rejected the food. But the next time Ali handed me tea, I accepted.

The doctor entered the room and asked me to write down everything Id done in Iran, day by day, meeting by meeting. Whatever I wrote, he would ask for more details. Finally, about nine hours after I was taken, I was led outside again. The guards told me to look up. A Qatar Airways plane loomed above us, ready for its dawn flight. It turned out that we had never left the airport. The last passengers were boarding. I felt a flicker of hope, but then I saw the guards smirking. A car was waiting on the tarmac. They opened the door and ushered me in.

The warm glow of dawn was breaking over the mountains to the north of Tehran. The guard told me I was being taken to a place that was a grade above a prison. He handed me a blindfold with an apologetic smile but allowed me to leave a slightly larger gap beneath my eyes and hold on to the seat in front. From glimpses of the chevrons I could see that the driver was zig-zagging in and out of the hard shoulder. Youre supposed to detain me, not kill me, I quipped. It earned a laugh but we didnt slow down. We were clearly driving back to town and I tried to work out our route. Eventually we descended a steep ramp and stopped. I shuffled up two steps and, once inside, my mask was removed.

A Dickensian character awaited me, pale, short and slightly hunched. The hair on his head sprouted in clumps; his face and hands were covered in warts. He asked me to empty my pockets. I surrendered my belt and, more reluctantly, my glasses. He led me down a corridor, unlocked the last door on the left and signalled that I should enter. It was a large cell, perhaps 20 square metres, with a thin mat on the floor. He pointed to a pile of musty brown blankets folded in a corner. As I walked over to them, I heard the door clang behind me and the bolt pulled sharply across. Through a high window I could see the early morning light. I undressed and fell asleep.

EVEN IN GOOD times, Iran has a complicated, and at times paranoid, government. Elected parliamentarians give a veneer of democracy but power ultimately resides with the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the regimes most powerful security force, answers directly to him. Rival arms of the state, including the security forces, jostle for influence. And the rules are unclear. Many regard Western journalists, particularly those asking awkward questions, as spies. Minders are ever present, with tape-recorders in hand to intimidate interviewees.

And this was a bad time in relations with the West. In April 2019 America declared the Revolutionary Guards to be a terrorist organisation. It had tightened sanctions, preventing Iran from trading in dollars or selling its oil.

I had been waiting for a journalists visa for three years when the Iranian authorities unexpectedly granted me one on July 1st 2019. On previous visits to Iran I had either been part of a large press pack covering elections, or with other colleagues from The Economist. I knew that the Iranian authorities were particularly suspicious of journalists who have been to Israel or are Jewish. I ticked both boxes. So I was apprehensive about my first solo trip.

Three days before I left for Iran, British marines impounded one of Irans largest oil tankers as it passed through the Straits of Gibraltar, suspecting it of breaking European sanctions by carrying oil to Syria. Iranian officials I knew assured me that Id be safe. But the timing of the visa seemed odd. During the week I spent reporting, few of the meetings I requested materialised and those that did peddled the government line that Britain had committed an act of piracy. My hotel, once a favourite with foreign journalists, was dark and empty. But when I went to Friday prayers and tried to cover a rally supporting the strict enforcement of the hijab, I was turned away for being a British national. Iran was not in a welcoming mood.

I had gone to report on the impact of American-imposed sanctions. Some news stories were claiming that Tehran was on the brink of collapse, but I saw few signs of it. There was no panic buying. The city looked cleaner and more modern than on my visit three years before. It has the best underground in the Middle East, with locally made trains. Parks and museums were abundant and well-tended, pavements were scrubbed and the citys many flower-beds immaculately maintained.

Americas sanctions had hurt people, of course. Average monthly salaries were worth less than a pair of imported shoes. I saw people sleeping rough or hawking junk on the streets. One former university lecturer I met had been reduced to busking. But few people went hungry and there seemed to be a joie de vivre among many of those I talked to. Cafs, theatres and music halls were packed. An earlier bout of sanctions had forced Tehrans Symphony Orchestra to disband but I wangled a ticket for the opening night of the reconstituted Philharmonic.

Some canny operators even found ways to profit from sanctions. When Google and Apple dropped Iran from their services, local clones emerged. Snapp!, a ride-hailing app, claims to have more users in Tehran than Uber has in London. Shortages of certain goods, particularly medicines, have led to a proliferation of homeopathic shops around town.

Some Iranians I spoke to argued for tighter sanctions to bring down the regime or force it to resort to diplomacy. Even supposed loyalists privately said they hoped that a further squeeze in oil revenues might push the government into changing course. Others lacked the patience to wait. My government-appointed minder, who accompanied me throughout my week reporting, had surfed dating sites until she had found an Algerian-French student willing to marry her and send her a visa to France. She was half my age but habitually behaved like a Victorian nanny, taking my arm as we crossed a road. When I was arrested at the hotel, she sat at a coffee table in the lobby, writing a statement and refused to make eye contact.

The sun was already high when I woke on my first morning in detention. It was a scorching day but a half-hearted air-conditioner dulled some of the heat. No sooner had I stood up than my jailer unbolted the door to bring me a metal tray with thin naan bread, yogurt and water. He handed it to me and pointed across the corridor to the latrines. A shower spout hung over the hole in the ground but I couldnt see any towels or soap. The cold water was refreshing.

How had the guard known I was awake? Without my glasses, the high ceiling was blurry but I could make out the eye of a camera over the door. Previous occupants had scratched tallies on the wall in groups of five, suggesting that I might be here for a while. I paced the cell and tried to enlarge it by imagining that each wall was the boundary of a field back home in Gloucestershire. The bedside wall ran through the pastures to the hedgerow, which stretched along the wall with the door. I turned and walked through the woods, along the edge of the sheep field and back to my bed.

The countryside stroll helped me to expand my perspective. It was Monday morning in Britain but I couldnt be certain that anyone there would have registered that I was missing. My wife would be getting our children ready for school, waiting to hear from me. She was heading off to Paris to research her latest book and I had promised to be back in time to take over. I was letting her down again. Perhaps my colleagues were also starting to worry.

The experience wasnt entirely unfamiliar. I had spent several short spells in prison. I had been held for hours in northern Yemen in 1997 where Id been trying to report, and endured a long weekend in a cell in 1999, at the crossing point between Gibraltar and Spain, accused of smuggling goods into Spain (in fact I was trying to furnish my flat in Morocco). Hostage-taking had become horrifyingly familiar when I was a correspondent in Iraq. I knew that, with natural light and a large cell, my conditions here were pretty good.

My mind spun all sorts of fantasies. I drew up a cost-benefit analysis of my circumstances. If word of my capture got out, it could damage my chance of early release but boost sales of an update to my book. My jailer, who until now had communicated entirely in grunts, might teach me Farsi. The spartan diet might help me lose weight.

I launched into my exercise routine to ward off sciatica, which ended with bent knees and prostrations, forehead to the floor. The bolt shot open and my jailer peered in. Had he thought Id converted so quickly? Or that I was having a heart attack? Sub be-kheir (good morning), I assured him and he replied in kind. I had elicited his first words.

Over the next few hours I exercised my toilet rights frequently. The knock on the door allowed me to control the timing of our encounters, which gave me a semblance of control. The guard seemed pleased to be relieved of the boredom, and on each occasion he would grunt a new phrase khosh bakhtam (nice to meet you), asr be-kheir (good afternoon) and take a fraction longer to lock me in again. Would you like more, he asked, pointing at the water jug as if encouraging me to increase the frequency of my toilet visits.

ON MY SECOND day, as dusk glowed, my jailer brought a blindfold and led me awkwardly along a corridor. When he took the mask off, I found myself in a room that was divided down the middle with a one-way mirror that I couldnt see through. The doctor was waiting. He took a cursory glance at me and then disappeared. I heard someone entering the room on the other side and the squeak of chair legs. A shadow introduced himself as my translator.

Its my job to sound aggressive. Try to understand, he said apologetically, before the doctor returned. The translator had looked me up online and wanted to know how he could buy my books. He sounded a little too friendly, which made me worry about where all this might be heading.

The doctor appeared again. He moved behind my chair and put his hands on my shoulders. We need you to co-operate, he said.

I replied that I had nothing to hide. He continued in Farsi, but the translator did not translate.

Whats he saying? I asked the mirror. The Farsi continued.

Reply in Farsi, the translator ordered.

But I dont speak Farsi, I protested.

We know you speak Farsi.

I apologised. I would love to learn, I said, and suggested we talk in Arabic.

The doctor relented and continued in broken English embellished by the translator. He told me that I would be transferred to a more comfortable location while they carried out their investigations and questioned me further. This was a favour, he said, but the decision could be reversed if I didnt co-operate, a threat that soon became recurrent. He hoped he could spare me from prosecution in court.

My experience in solitary had lasted, I guessed, less than 12 hours. What a pale imitation of a political prisoner I was.

They took me to my new home, a shabby flat on the top floor of what seemed to be a hotel fallen on hard times. There were two sofas, an armchair, a rectangular glass coffee table and a TV that stood against the wall. Faded orange curtains covered windows that stretched along one side of the room. A wooden kitchenette occupied a corner. Two bedrooms led off from the other side and the guards gestured for me to rest in one of them. When I closed the door, they opened it again. That night I was made to bring a mattress into the sitting room and the guards left the lights on while they watched over me until dawn.

On my first evening in the flat the doctor, his assistant Ali, and another translator turned up and stayed late into the night. Again I asked to contact my embassy and a lawyer. That was a thorny path, they advised. It might lead to a lengthy court case, or incarceration in the notorious Evin prison. You know what happens in Evin, the doctor said.

When I had arrived in Tehran I had dined with an economist who had recently emerged from a month in what alumni call Evin University, 21 days of it in solitary confinement. The torture, he told me, was psychological rather than physical. He insisted he was unharmed, but his hair had turned white since I had seen him three years earlier.

My captors wore no identifying uniforms, but on the second day the doctor told me that he was an officer in the intelligence arm of the Revolutionary Guards. Irans security agencies are many tentacled. In 1979 the new Islamic Republic retained much of the existing state apparatus, including the army and a good part of the bureaucracy, but it added another tier to keep existing institutions in check, and the parallel systems have competed ever since. The governments own intelligence ministry would be unlikely to detain a Western journalist whose entry it had approved. My accusers were from its more powerful rival.

From the first months of the 1979 revolution, when the Revolutionary Guards took 52 people hostage in the American embassy, the Corps has had a record of detaining foreigners. In the 1980s Hizbullah, Irans Lebanese proxy, imprisoned Western envoys, teachers and journalists. Iran itself had started making arrests again. Many of these detainees were dual nationals, including Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, a British-Iranian who has been held since 2016. But some of them had no Iranian citizenship. The threat being made against me was clearly a real one.

It was a surprise when the doctor said that I could dictate a message to my wife, which his men would send from my phone. The brief text was a testimony of my devotion and guilt, combined with a cry for help that might be bland enough for them to relay.

Darling Lipika so sorry not to make it back in time for your trip tomorrow .i have been held since last night in Tehran and am being questioned. I have not been hurt and so far am being well looked after, i will contact you tomorrow morning . Dont worry , it will be ok . Love you to the end of the earth nico.

In the days that followed, there were always three men present to watch me; each shift lasted 24 hours. Being crammed with my guards into a small flat, spending our days in close proximity in T-shirts and underpants, was a surprisingly intimate experience. Over time much of the guards suspicion dissolved and they seemed to be concerned less that I might try to escape than that others could break in. Were they fearing a Hollywood-style hostage rescue by Western goons, I wondered, or a rival arm of Irans intelligence services seeking to grab their latest asset? They left the key to the apartment temptingly in the lock. But a knock on our door sent them into paroxysms of activity, even when it was just the arrival of a takeaway meal. They would draw their pistols from their back pockets and brace themselves behind the heavy cupboard that they had wedged against the door. One guard angled the cupboard back a few inches, the other cocked his pistol and extended his arm. Then they would open the door just wide enough to instruct the delivery man to leave the food outside. Only when they heard the lift descend would they retrieve it.

One guard assumed the role of language teacher. I pointed at objects, he said the relevant word in Farsi and we practised pronouncing it together. We had just moved onto phrases when he left. Another insisted we exercise together, so we sat on the floor facing each other, intertwining our legs to perform sit-ups. After a day he suggested we dance to Iranian love songs, which he played on his mobile phone. He pirouetted around the room, rotating his hands and gyrating his pelvis. The rest of us made a pretence of joining in, largely to encourage him, and then stepped back to enjoy the spectacle. Each time I felt that I had developed a rapport with a guard, he would be replaced.

Over the course of several days the men spent most of their time glued to phone-screens, watching Bollywood films, or American or Chinese schlock full of street fights, which they accessed through virtual private networks to evade the censorship they were supposed to enforce. They ordered kebabs, pizzas and watermelon and never cleared up. Each morning, I would wash their plates, scrape the leftover watermelon rinds, pizza crusts and kebab gristle into the bin and make tea. I would sigh audibly, like a father despairing of his unruly kids. Thank you, they apologised.

I scoured the flat for signs of where in Tehran we might be. The only marks on the crockery read Made in China. The takeaways came from a Tehran chain. Whenever I thought the guards were asleep or absorbed on their phones, I would peek through the gap between the curtains. We were six storeys up, and the narrow street was lined with tall plane trees whose tips reached the floor below. The street sloped upwards to the right, but not steeply, so I guessed we were in the lower reaches of northern Tehran. In a city of 15m people that wasnt much help. I got excited when I found Hotel Johnson written on a faded, cream-coloured hairdryer. (Later I discovered that this was simply the name of a brand.)

My interrogators visited each morning, but by the third day the mood had lightened. I was allowed to sleep in my room with the door open. The doctor explained that he needed to continue his enquiries, but in the meantime I would be transferred to a more comfortable hotel. I was not allowed to do any journalism but was permitted to roam the city, so long as I kept Ali notified of my movements and any meetings. As a journalist I had a minder to monitor my every move and conversation, yet now I would be able to wander around freely.

The guards gave me back my belongings an hour later. My phones, laptop and notebooks were missing, but my sons Hebrew stencil was still there. The devices would be returned, Ali promised. In the meantime he would arrange a substitute smartphone.

I shook hands with my captors. I may even have said see you again. I donned the blindfold like an expert and was led out of the apartment and into the lift. Once we were back on the main road the mask was removed. This might have been an evening drive with old friends. Twenty minutes later we arrived at the Simorgh hotel, where I had stayed on previous trips, in the ritzy north of Tehran. The doctor was waiting to check me in: $50 a night, he said. Feel free to make international calls. The Revolutionary Guards would pick up the tab.

I HESITATED BEFORE stepping beyond the lobby of the hotel. My first trip was to the laundrette 50 metres up the road. As the owner started chatting to me, I realised that I had interviewed his brother in my first week in the country. I asked him to pass on my good wishes and dared myself on to the bookshop a little farther uphill and then into the sculpture park beyond. I wondered about treating myself to a decent meal, but I didnt feel like eating alone. And I didnt know what the limits imposed on me actually were. My first foray lasted for barely half an hour.

After that, each time I went out I would venture a little farther before returning to the haven of the hotel. I knew several people who lived nearby, but avoided contacting them. At one point I ran into someone I had interviewed only days before (he had taken me to see a Farsi version of Waiting for Godot). He looked shocked to see me, knowing that Id been planning to leave shortly, but I brushed off his questions. Self-censorship ranks as one of an authoritarian regimes strongest tools, and I was complicit.

Despite Irans pious reputation, Tehran may well be the least religious capital in the Middle East. Clerics dominate the news headlines and play the communal elders in soap operas, but I never saw them on the street, except on billboards. Unlike most Muslim countries, the call to prayer is almost inaudible. There has been a rampant campaign to build new mosques, yet more people flock to art galleries on Fridays than religious services. With the exception, perhaps, of Tel Aviv, I had visited nowhere in the Middle East where people read as voraciously as Tehran. The Handmaids Tale, Margaret Atwoods dystopian fable of women enslaved to a theocratic caste, is a particular favourite, the owner of one bookstore told me.

The more I delved into city life the more colourful I found it. I met a raver whod been partying in Los Angeles and Paris but, he said, nothing compares to Iran. Plastic surgeons were so accomplished that an English porn star supposedly chose to get her nose job done in Tehran.

Life in Iran has always swung both ways. Nothing goes and everything goes. Alcohol is banned but home delivery is faster for wine than for pizza. A portrait of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who founded the Islamic Republic and ranted against music, hangs over the stage in concert halls across the country, glowering at thrilled audiences. The palpable sense that you might become a target only adds to the abandon with which some people live.

The space for veil-free living had grown since I last visited. In the safety of their homes, women often removed their head coverings when chatting over the internet. Darkened cinema halls offered respite from the morality police who enforce discipline. In cafs women let their scarves fall languorously. The more brazen simply walked uncovered in the streets, risking ten years in prison. And, in an unusual inversion of rebellion, ties have made a reappearance some 40 years after Ayatollah Khomeini denounced them as a symbol of British imperialism. (The conductor at the Philharmonic wore a bright-red one.)

Many restrictions have peculiar quirks. A female actor may not show her own hair on stage, but is allowed to wear a wig that makes her look ravishing. She can sing but not perform a solo. And she can dance, but not in public.

I found myself drawn to the exuberant side of the capitals life. The listing of plays in Tehran was almost as long as Londons West End and I devoured them. Directors are adept at finding ways to evade the censors. A striking number of plays and films I saw were set in prisons a commentary on the Iranian condition but under bygone regimes. Opera was taboo, but a performance one evening in the red-cushioned opera house of the former shah, which was billed as Kurdish folk music, included Verdi. Beneath a vast glittering chandelier the audience threw bouquets of flowers at the Iranian singer, who is acclaimed in both Rome and Berlin; for an encore, she finally dared to sing a solo.

The most extraordinary performance I went to in these strange weeks was a production of The Sound of Music. I thought initially that the audiences enthusiasm was testament to Tehrans thirst for Americana, but the tale of 1930s Austria was remarkably apt for Iran today. The nunnery looked oddly like a womens madrassa in Qom, the countrys religious centre, and the audience seemed thrilled by a female rebel challenging the stifling atmosphere. They sang along when she escaped to the hills and sighed when, pricked by pangs of conscience, she kept returning. The finale was given an Iranian twist. In the original, Maria and her charges escape from the Nazis to freedom. Here, instead, they traipsed across the stage as voiceless refugees dragging battered suitcases, a caustic reminder of the fate of those who flee their homeland. Instead of the family singing the last song, a triumphant phalanx of clergy and Hitler Youth did so. A giant Nazi flag filled the backdrop.

Of course not everyone got away with pushing at the strictures. In my first week in Tehran the authorities pulled a production of Ibsens Hedda Gabler the play is about suicide, which is forbidden in Islam and another about poor women reduced to hawking to feed their families. Cafs that hosted live bands risked closure until they had paid off fines. Women without head-coverings who were spotted on one of Tehrans many surveillance cameras received police summons by text. But the morality police, who drove around town in new green-and-white vans, seemed too stretched to suppress every challenge.

One evening I stumbled on a crowd clapping to the jig of a violinist. They had formed a circle around a pair of male dancers who were sensually gyrating and rotating their wrists. People were cheering them on when the park lights suddenly cut out. Blackouts are rare in the city, so the presumption was that the authorities had pulled the plug after a tip-off or noticed the gathering on a camera. Boos erupted from the darkness. Someone shouted Pahlavi, appealing for help from the long-deceased shah. A minute later an electricity generator began to roar.

Though my afternoons and evenings had become more pleasant, on most mornings the Guards would question me, often for hours. It was more informal than in the early days. They would come to the hotel, invite me for coffee and we would drive through the traffic while they probed me on everything from my views on Israel and Palestine to sanctions and even Brexit.

Sometimes they would run out of questions and conversation began to flow in the other direction. The doctor confided in me of his fatigue. He slept for only an hour each night, he said: as well as being an intelligence officer, he was an academic and wrote a newspaper column.

As time went on, the Guards visits grew rarer and shorter. You miss me, dont you, joked Ali when I called to ask where he was. But I had other handlers too: my wife and a tight circle of colleagues in London who grew ever more engaged through WhatsApp and phone calls. Initially they presumed that I was bored and they needed to boost my morale. One sent me breathing exercises and others challenged me to athletic feats of swimming and running. Sometimes I resented their interruptions. I felt as if Id been given a key to a secret garden and was repeatedly being hauled back. My colleagues worried that my explorations were putting me in danger. I found their attention both comforting and burdensome. I felt pressure to make them feel I was worth supporting, but struggled to make my conversation sparkle and to convey my enthusiasm for a speedy return.

It was liberating to have the run of Tehran, without minders, deadlines or chores. But of course, I wasnt truly free. I policed myself on behalf of the regime, becoming my own jailer and censor, aware that any lapse could have consequences. Sometimes I tried to speak over colleagues or relatives who were saying things that I feared might enrage my captors. I felt the presence of hundreds of electronic eyes. The friendliest faces who greeted me might be informers. And I could not leave Iran. It is an odd experience to know that you can be caught out at any time. But this was the way of Tehran. Some avenues open up, others close. Everyone feels like a captive. There are those who say that it is all a grand plan of the ayatollahs to keep people on edge.

On the tenth evening of my captivity, the doctor came to my hotel, smiling. Their investigations had concluded that I was indeed a reporter. I was free to leave the following Tuesday, in five days time. All that remained was to complete the paperwork for my exit visa. He hoped I would come back to the country and would stay in touch. Ali asked me to send him a picture of the Emirates Stadium, where Arsenal Football Club plays. I would be home in time for a family camping holiday and could see my father, who was ill and getting worse. I would relieve my anguished colleagues. I was finally able to acknowledge the fate I was being spared. On a whim I could have been locked up for months, perhaps years.

But when I asked Ali whether the office in London should book a flight for me, he told me to wait. I struggled to deal with the anticipation of my family and colleagues as well as my own. I went shopping for presents. I bought my wife a handcrafted ring, a silver thorn that spread out over several fingers, and a painting of a sleeping woman that I half-suspected the authorities might seize on my departure.

UNTIL NOW Id felt that my answers to the interrogations mattered, that the Revolutionary Guards were keeping me because they were genuinely suspicious about my activities. In a system where every foreigner and many Iranians were considered spies until proven innocent, I hoped to reassure them and clear the way for more regular reporting trips to Iran. As my exit visa failed to materialise, my naivety dawned on me. I was caught in a political game involving high-seas tankers and international diplomacy that far exceeded my ability to influence it. On July 19th, two weeks after the British government seized an Iranian oil tanker, the Iranians impounded a British-flagged tanker, for allegedly breaking maritime rules.

The day of my supposed departure came and went, and so did the doctor. Though he was my captor, he had also become a reassuring figure to me. Without him I grew agitated and anxious. There was silence from my handlers, and my case seemed to be in limbo. Weeks passed.

On August 15th the British government released the Iranian ship. But the Guards were digging in. Although the Iranian tanker was sailing again it couldnt offload its cargo. Under American pressure, Mediterranean ports repeatedly turned it away. I feared either that the Revolutionary Guards thought they could use my presence to negotiate some kind of deal, or that I was becoming a pawn in the internal rivalry within the Iranian government. I was beginning to see at first hand the glaring tensions between the two arms of the state. My hotel seemed increasingly nervous about hosting an over-stayer without a passport. In an attempt to evict me one evening, they cut the lights and blamed an unfixable electrical fault. The following morning the Guards arrived to transfer me to another location. En route we were chased by two motorbikes and careened up and down the alleyways of northern Tehran. Only when we pulled into a cul-de-sac did the Guards succeed in shaking them off.

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Trapped in Iran - The Economist