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Nobody was holding their breath over the outcome of this month's elections to the Majlis Iran's parliament, said Maryam Aslany and Rana Dasgupta in The Sunday Times. These were the first elections to be held after the wave of protests that convulsed the nation in 2022-23. That unrest, sparked by the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, the 22-year-old student arrested for not wearing a hijab properly, had threatened the authority of Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, which is why he was so determined to frame last week's election as a public endorsement of the Islamic regime. To that end, every candidate was vetted by the Guardian Council, an assembly of 12 clerics controlled by Khamenei, which made it its business to disqualify almost all reformists and moderate conservatives from standing. Thus the result was always a foregone conclusion.

Yet even in this pitiful excuse for an election, Iranians managed to deliver a "stinging rebuke" to the regime, said Farnaz Fassihi in The New York Times. Deprived of their preferred candidates, many didn't bother to vote: turnout was just 41% the lowest in the Islamic Republic's 45-year history. In Tehran, it was 24%. Khamenei tried to spin the outcome as an "epic" victory; it was anything but. Some 15,000 candidates ended up competing for 290 seats, said Sina Toossi in Foreign Policy (Washington), and the winners were mainly members of a new generation of fundamentalists, many clerics, who espouse a rigid version of Islamic law and oppose any engagement with the West. Having bested their pragmatic rivals, they now seem intent on out-hawking each other on both domestic and foreign issues.

But far more important than the outcome of elections to the Majlis has been that of elections to the powerful Assembly of Experts, held on the same day, said Guido Steinberg in Cicero (Berlin). This is the body responsible for choosing Khamenei's successor: and as the supreme leader is frail and about to turn 85, it's more than likely the assembly will have to carry out that duty sooner rather than later. So once again, as with the Majlis, every effort was made to ensure the ascendancy of candidates supportive of Khamenei and to bar reformists from running: even former president Hassan Rouhani was excluded from running on the grounds he was too moderate. So skewed to the conservative Right is the assembly that a hardliner is certain to prevail in the race to succeed Khamenei. Yet by excluding conservative moderates, Khamenei may have ended up weakening his position, said Iran International (London). Radicals are far less easy to keep under control. Take a man like Hamid Rasaei, a hardliner "with a questionable reputation", who wasn't even allowed to run in the 2020 election, but who last week was elected to a Tehran seat by a huge majority. Rasaei has already disregarded Khamenei's plea for the new intake "to avoid conflicts and controversies". Quite the contrary, he has branded the speaker of the Majlis, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, "a hypocrite" and demanded his resignation. And Ghalibaf happens to be a relative of Khamenei's.

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As one of its former commanders, Ghalibaf has the backing of the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), an important player in Iranian politics, so he is probably secure for now. But whichever faction prevails, the real question to ponder is how long the mullahs can retain their grip over such a disaffected populace, said The Economist. Inflation is soaring; meat and even rice are unaffordable to most people; the regime's backing of Hezbollah in Lebanon and of Yemen's Houthis is proving hugely costly; US sanctions continue to bite. And "everyone in Iran knows what the regime is truly afraid of", said Maryam Aslany and Rana Dasgupta. It's written in the graffiti sprayed on walls and bridges across the country. "Long live the king." What most Iranians long for is the return of a constitutional monarchy, and of a man now living in Great Falls, Virginia the son of the shah and scion of the dynasty that ruled before the mullahs seized power in 1979: crown prince Reza Pahlavi.

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Iran at the crossroads: have the mullahs lost their grip? - The Week

Amid wars in Gaza and Ukraine, attacks on Red Sea shipping, tit-for-tat killings between Americans and Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria and skirmishes across the Israel-Lebanon border, an issue that once galvanized the international community has receded into the background.

Yet Irans nuclear program is advancing largely unchecked, posing an additional potential flashpoint for a world already overloaded with crises.

According to the latest report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the worlds nuclear watchdog, Iran had amassed more than 5,000 kilograms of enriched uranium by the end of February 2024, of which more than 120 kilograms were enriched to 60 percent purity, perilously close to weapons grade. That is enough, if further enriched, to make several bombs. Under a 2015 nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran was allowed only 200 kilograms of uranium enriched below 5 percent until 2031 and its entire program was subject to unprecedented scrutiny by the IAEA. That deal fell apart after the Trump administration quit in 2018, while Iran was in full compliance. Iran waited a year before beginning to move beyond the JCPOAs restrictions and has kept on going as efforts by the Biden administration, the European Union and others to restore the deal have faltered.

In September 2023, the U.S. and Iran did manage to reach an informal understanding on a series of disputes that slowed Irans accumulation of 60 percent uranium and also freed five U.S.-Iran dual nationals who were held in Iranian jails. In return, the U.S. eased enforcement of efforts to block Iranian oil exports and gave South Korea a green light to release $6 billion in Iranian oil revenues that had been frozen in South Korean banks because of U.S. sanctions. The money was transferred to banks in Qatar but has essentially been refrozen in the aftermath of the deadly attack by Hamas on Israel of Oct. 7, 2023, and rising tension between the U.S. and other Iran-backed militant groups after Israel invaded Gaza.

The Gaza war pre-empted what was supposed to be a follow-on meeting in Oman in late October between Iranian officials and Brett McGurk, White House coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa. McGurk did participate in indirect talks with Iran in Oman in January 2024, according to published accounts, but the main topic was to urge Iran to exert pressure on the Yemeni Houthis to halt their attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. A second meeting in February was postponed as the Biden administration focused on getting an Israel-Hamas cease-fire and freeing Israeli hostages.

Non-proliferation experts are trying not to be distracted by the war and are scrambling for new ideas to avoid what some have called a binary choice between bombing Iran and Iran with a bomb.

Iranian officials insist that they are not seeking weapons and that the only thing that could provoke them to develop a bomb would be a U.S. or Israeli attack on the Iranian homeland. The latter appears unlikely now, but President Joe Biden has repeatedly said he would not allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons and has not excluded military action. Recent comments by a veteran Iranian nuclear expert, Ali Salehi, that Iran possesses all the pieces necessary for a bomb have heightened concerns.

With the window for progress under Bidens first term closing, Iranian officials appear to be trying to increase their leverage in case Donald Trump returns to the White House. They also understand that Biden is reluctant to make significant concessions during an election year, having already been accused of appeasement over last years informal understanding.

Whoever wins, however, will have to confront the issue soon. The U.N. Security Council Resolution that enshrined the JCPOA expires in October 2025. After that, the only international constraint on Iran will be its promise, as a signatory of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) to continue to foreswear nuclear weapons, as well as a religious ruling or fatwa against developing weapons of mass destruction issued some time ago by Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and widely discounted by Irans adversaries.

Given their bitter experience with the Trump withdrawal, Iranians have sought guarantees that any additional constraints they accept will have concrete benefits for Tehran that cannot be removed with the stroke of a pen. One idea is to allow Iran to hold onto a large quantity of 60 percent enriched uranium under IAEA supervision on Iranian soil, but that appears to be a non-starter unless Iran dramatically increases transparency about its program and restores some of the intrusive monitoring provided for under the JCPOA. This could entail restoring daily IAEA access to Irans main enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow as well as allowing inspections of manufacturing sites for centrifuges to guard against undetected diversion.

Iran could also finally resolve a dispute with the IAEA clarifying the source of uranium particles found at two sites undeclared to the agency. It could comply with its legal obligation to implement a modified Code 3.1, under which a country with a safeguards agreement with the IAEA must inform the agency as soon as it has made the decision to build a new nuclear facility, rather than six months before introducing nuclear material. If Iran wants to be able to continue as essentially a nuclear weapons threshold state without generating wider international opposition, greater accountability and transparency are a minimum requirement.

Another idea is to utilize Irans year-old restoration of diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia to devise a regional deal that would compensate Iran with Arab investment in return for rolling back some of its nuclear advances. This could also include regional cooperation on civilian nuclear energy, especially the safety of nuclear facilities. With the Saudis eager to develop their own nuclear power and the United Arab Emirates about to bring a fourth power reactor online, such regional cooperation under the auspices of the IAEA might be a useful confidence-building step.

Like the rest of the world, Iran is trying to prepare itself for the possibility of a second Trump administration. Trumps advisors have generally been very tough on Iran and vowed to ramp up their policy of so-called maximum pressure. However, the Saudis and Emiratis who bore the brunt of Irans retaliation for Trumps withdrawal from the JCPOA may advise Trump to go in a different direction.

In campaigning for his first term, Trump vowed to ditch the JCPOA, which he called the worst deal ever negotiated. That doesnt mean he wouldnt try for an alternative so long as it isnt called JCPOA 2.0 and offers the prospect of besting Biden and equaling Barack Obama by winning a Nobel Peace Prize.

Iranians might be reluctant to reward a man who ordered the assassination in 2020 of their most famous general, Qasem Soleimani. But if Trump fancies himself a master of the art of the deal, Iranians are practiced at handling friends and foes through the excessive flattery known as taroof. Their economy faltering and their governments legitimacy in question, the Islamic Republic could use a diplomatic win.

Ultimately, there is no other way to contain Irans nuclear program except through diplomacy. No other path has succeeded, and a new military confrontation is the last thing a Middle East already in flames can afford.

Barbara Slavin is a Distinguished Fellow at the Stimson Center, where she directs the Middle East Perspectives project. She tweets @BarbaraSlavin1.

Originally posted here:
How to Prevent a Nuclear Crisis with Iran Stimson Center - Stimson Center

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday lashed out at the international community, particularly pressure against an expanded military operation in Rafah and American calls for an early election in Israel.

"Since the beginning of the war, we have been fighting on two fronts - the military front and the political front," Netanyahu said at the opening of the State Security Cabinet (SSC) weekly meeting.

"On the political front, we have so far managed to allow our forces to fight in an unprecedented manner for five full months. But it is no secret that the international pressures against us are increasing," the prime minister continued.

"There are those in the international community who are trying to stop the war now, before all its goals are achieved. They do this by making false accusations against the IDF, against the Israeli government and against the Prime Minister of Israel," he likely referred to recent remarks from U.S. Democrat leaders, President Joe Biden and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.

"They do this by trying to bring about elections now, in the midst of the war. And they do this because they know that elections now will stop the war, and paralyze the country for at least six months," Netanyahu explained.

"So let's be clear: if we stop the war now, before all of its goals are achieved, it means that Israel has lost the war, and we will not allow that. That is why we must not give in to these pressures, and we will not give in to them," the prime minister declared.

"On the contrary, this simple truth only strengthens our determination to keep fighting the pressures and keep fighting until the end - until the absolute victory. No amount of international pressure will stop us from realizing all the goals of the war: eliminating Hamas, releasing all our hostages and ensuring that Gaza will no longer pose a threat against Israel," he reiterated.

"To do this, we will also operate in Rafah. This is the only way to eliminate the rest of Hamas's murderous battalions, and this is the only way to apply the military pressure necessary to release all our hostages," Netanyahu added.

"To this end, we approved the operational plans for action in Rafah, including the promotion of the steps to evacuate the civilian population from the battle zones. This is a necessary step towards military action," the prime minister stated, emphasizing "I say again - we will act with care. It will take a few weeks, and it will happen."

"And to our friends in the international community I say: Is your memory so short? So quickly did you forget October 7, the most terrible massacre committed against Jews since the Holocaust? So quickly are you ready to deny Israel the right to defend itself against the monsters of Hamas? Did you lose your moral conscience so quickly?"

"Instead of putting pressure on Israel, which is fighting a just war, against an enemy that cannot be more cruel, direct your pressure against Hamas and its patron - Iran. They are the ones who pose a danger to the region and the entire world," Netanyahu concluded. "We, in any case, will face all the pressures, and with God's help, we will continue to fight together until complete victory."

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Netanyahu Calls For International Pressure To Be Redirected To Hamas, Iran - I24NEWS - i24NEWS

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi held a meeting focusing on big steps in the field of artificial intelligence, Irans pro-government Tasnim News reported on Sunday. Iran has already invested in cyber capabilities, and the use of AI is one of the technologies many countries are now investing in.

The meeting provided an overview of issues, such as the digital economy and the steps Iran is taking in AI. Raisi held a discussion with a group of virtual business activists in a meeting on Saturday afternoon, the report noted, adding that he heard from 15 different business owners and discussed the current ecosystem for technology and innovation in Iran.

Iran is seeking to invest in training young people in these fields and to work in AI, which could have security and defense implications for the region. For now, Raisi is talking about economic growth and job creation. Iran is increasing financial and legal support as well as providing a suitable environment for the presence and participation of the private sector in this field, the report noted.

The Iranian leader also discussed the need for regulation in this field: Creating a healthy, competitive and calm environment with easy access to domestic markets and foreigners is one of the essentials for the prosperity of the digital economy for the activists of this sector, the Iranian president said, according to the report.This would all seem normal if one were discussing a Western democracy. In Iran, though, these types of economic investments also have implications for the countrys security state. This can include ties between companies and the regime and also ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

According to Iranian Economy Minister Ehsan Khandouzi, the country wants to train 100,000 people in the digital economy sector. According to the report, few business leaders took part in the meeting, most of whom do not have much of an online presence. Most were named in the report, including two female executives.

Those attending included Kazem Kayal, CEO of Yes Application; Mohammad Baqer Tabrizi, CEO of Quera Company; Mostafa Raipour, CEO of Digiton Company; Abbas Asgari Sari, CEO of Mohiman Company; Mohammad Sadoughi, CEO of Trabrand Company; Majid Hosseininejad, the founder of Alibaba Holding; Ali Hakim Javadi, who was recently elected chairman of the board of directors of Tehrans Nasr Organization; Mohammad Mahdi Shariatmadar, CEO of JBit Company, involved in advertising and other businesses, as well as Mustafa Amiri, the CEO of Zarin Pal, who was elected recently in elections of the Computer Trade Union Organization of Tehran province.

Two attendees stand out; one of them was Alireza Abedinejad, the CEO of Doran Software Technologies, which was sanctioned in December 2023 as a leading company in Iran assisting the government in censorship and filtering of the Internet.

The other was Masoud Tabatabai, who was reportedly detained in February for having an offensive coffee mug. Tabatabai is the head of Irans largest online retailer, Digikala Group. According to IranWire, it is seen as Irans version of Amazon. His legal issues were resolved before the meeting with the president.

This report indicates that Iran is taking this initiative seriously along with many other countries. AI has many uses, but it is not very well understood. At its base, it should involve machine learning and an interface between the user and the AI to improve decisions or processes. In many cases, it is used as a catchword for systems that dont use AI but rather use various algorithms that dont learn over time.

Nevertheless, Irans decision to invest more focus in these technologies matters. AI is increasingly used in defense industries. It can improve targeting and also work with electro-optics and other features that are increasingly employed to deal with the numerous sensors now on military platforms, such as drones and missiles.

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Iran to push for better AI in the country - The Jerusalem Post

Iran has made a concerted effort to rein in militias in Iraq and Syria after the United States retaliated with a series of airstrikes for the killing of three U.S. Army reservists this month.

Initially, there were regional concerns that the tit-for-tat violence would lead to an escalation of the Middle East conflict. But since the Feb. 2 U.S. strikes, American officials say, there have been no attacks by Iran-backed militias on American bases in Iraq and only two minor ones in Syria.

Before then, the U.S. military logged at least 170 attacks against American troops in four months, Pentagon officials said.

The relative quiet reflects decisions by both sides and suggests that Iran does have some level of control over the militias.

The Biden administration has made clear that Tehran would be held accountable for miscalculations and operations by proxy forces, but it has avoided any direct attack on Iran. The U.S. response may be having some effect, Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr., a retired head of the Pentagons Central Command, said in an interview.

The question is are the militias attacking or not, he added, and at least for now, they are not.

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After U.S. Strikes, Iran's Proxies Scale Back Attacks on American Bases - The New York Times