Weighing the Prospective U.S.-Iran Nuclear Deal
Lee Smith lead a panel discussion with David Albright, Michael Doran, Hillel Fradkin and Ray Takeyh on the impact of a nuclear deal with Iran. - Captured Live on Ustream at http://www.ustream.tv/ch...
By: Hudson Institute
Originally posted here:
Weighing the Prospective U.S.-Iran Nuclear Deal - Video
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
Washington (CNN) -- As world powers are gathering in Vienna this week for a final round of nuclear talks with Iran, Western diplomats put their chances of a comprehensive deal at 50 percent at best and a breakthrough before the Nov. 24 deadline appears highly unlikely.
While an accord might not be met by next Monday's deadline, diplomats say it is possible to agree on the outline of a deal. They say an extension of the talks to resolve the remaining issues and work out the details is the most likely scenario.
Though nobody is talking publicly yet about the prospects for an extension, one senior administration official said a continuation of the talks was far preferable to a total collapse of the process.
"We are striving for a final deal, but if that doesn't happen, do we walk away and throw away all of the progress that has been made over these nine months," the official asked rhetorically. "We just can't do that."
The parties have been tight-lipped about the details of the negotiations, most of which are highly technical. While diplomatic sources say progress has been made on all issues, the main sticking points continue to center around Iran's uranium enrichment capacity and the pace at which decades long sanctions against Tehran would be lifted in exchange for intrusive inspections and curbs on its program.
A deal would help end decades of mutual mistrust between Iran and the West, paving the way for better relations and potential cooperation. But failure could lead to an unwanted military confrontation in a region already wracked by violence, instability and political chaos.
Negotiations are aimed at reconfiguring Iran's nuclear program in an effort to extend the time Iran would have enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon, otherwise known as the "breakout time." Experts say at present it could take Iran as little as three months. The six world powers want to extend that to at least a year, giving the international community time to intervene.
As the number of outstanding issues has dwindled, the differences over the remaining ones have grown sharper. Diplomats caution nothing is truly agreed to until everything is hammered out -- comparing the negotiations to a complex "Rubix Cube"-like puzzle.
Take Iran's enrichment program. A key component of extending Iran's breakout time centers around limiting the amount of enriched uranium Iran is able to produce and keep on hand.
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
Washington (CNN) -- As world powers are gathering in Vienna this week for a final round of nuclear talks with Iran, Western diplomats put their chances of a comprehensive deal at 50 percent at best and a breakthrough before the Nov. 24 deadline appears highly unlikely.
While an accord might not be met by next Monday's deadline, diplomats say it is possible to agree on the outline of a deal. They say an extension of the talks to resolve the remaining issues and work out the details is the most likely scenario.
Though nobody is talking publicly yet about the prospects for an extension, one senior administration official said a continuation of the talks was far preferable to a total collapse of the process.
"We are striving for a final deal, but if that doesn't happen, do we walk away and throw away all of the progress that has been made over these nine months," the official asked rhetorically. "We just can't do that."
The parties have been tight-lipped about the details of the negotiations, most of which are highly technical. While diplomatic sources say progress has been made on all issues, the main sticking points continue to center around Iran's uranium enrichment capacity and the pace at which decades long sanctions against Tehran would be lifted in exchange for intrusive inspections and curbs on its program.
A deal would help end decades of mutual mistrust between Iran and the West, paving the way for better relations and potential cooperation. But failure could lead to an unwanted military confrontation in a region already wracked by violence, instability and political chaos.
Negotiations are aimed at reconfiguring Iran's nuclear program in an effort to extend the time Iran would have enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon, otherwise known as the "breakout time." Experts say at present it could take Iran as little as three months. The six world powers want to extend that to at least a year, giving the international community time to intervene.
As the number of outstanding issues has dwindled, the differences over the remaining ones have grown sharper. Diplomats caution nothing is truly agreed to until everything is hammered out -- comparing the negotiations to a complex "Rubix Cube"-like puzzle.
Take Iran's enrichment program. A key component of extending Iran's breakout time centers around limiting the amount of enriched uranium Iran is able to produce and keep on hand.
In its efforts to strike a nuclear deal with Iran, the Obama administration has faced a two-part challenge: forging an agreement in international negotiations and then selling it at home.
Now, with negotiators in Vienna five days from their deadline, it appears the second part of the task will be tougher than expected.
Many officials of the six world powers that have been negotiating with Iran predict they will not complete all aspects of a comprehensive agreement by the Nov. 24 deadline. British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond on Wednesday became the first top Western official to publicly acknowledge that the group may need more time for a deal.
If they fail to meet the cutoff date, they may announce some kind of partial agreement. But they also are likely to seek time for further talks, officials say.
That would leave the White House seeking congressional support for an extension for the second time in four months. The administration wouldn't want to disclose full details of the talks for fear it could undermine the diplomacy and provide ammunition for critics who worry that a bad deal would allow Iran to gain bomb-making know-how.
"This would be very messy politically for the administration," said Jofi Joseph, who was a White House nuclear specialist earlier in the Obama administration.
Iran and the United States and five other world powers are seeking a deal that would ease international sanctions on Iran if it accepts restrictions designed to prevent it from gaining nuclear weapons capability. Iran denies that it is seeking a nuclear bomb.
In negotiations since February, the group has made progress in many areas. But the negotiators remain far apart on some key issues, including how quickly sanctions would be removed and how much uranium enrichment capability Iran could retain. Enrichment is the process used to refine uranium to a grade that can be used as nuclear bomb fuel.
Skeptics in Congress, who include senior members of both parties, have long been warning that if a deal wasn't concluded this year they would seek to impose further sanctions on Iran. Other lawmakers are preparing legislation that would give Congress more leverage to block a deal it doesn't like or to take away the money needed to implement an agreement.
Cliff Kupchan, chairman of the Eurasia Group risk consulting firm, said that if the administration seeks an extension based on vague assurances of progress, "that's going to leave members of Congress with a stronger urge to rumble than ever before."
See the article here:
Extension of Iran nuclear talks would be a hard sell in Congress
Iran nuclear deal continues to face hurdles, both domestic and foreign
For months, diplomats from six world powers have known what a deal over Iran #39;s disputed nuclear program would look like. It #39;s just the details that are missing.
By: Audrey Castillo
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Iran nuclear deal continues to face hurdles, both domestic and foreign - Video