Q A: Can You Trust Washington on Immigration Reform?
Heritage #39;s Derrick Morgan explains why Washington can #39;t be trusted to solve America #39;s illegal immigration problem. | http://herit.ag/1duiE6u.
By: The Heritage Foundation
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Q&A: Can You Trust Washington on Immigration Reform? - Video
A week after signaling that House Republicans would pursue an overhaul of immigration laws, Speaker John A. Boehner declared Thursday that his caucus is unlikely to move forward until President Obama gains their trust.
Theres widespread doubt about whether this administration can be trusted to enforce our laws, Boehner (R-Ohio) said during a midday news conference at the Capitol. And its going to be difficult to move any immigration legislation until that changes.
Boehner was making his first extended public remarks since releasing a list of GOP standards for immigration policy at a conference retreat last week. His attempt to place the burden on Obama illustrated the mounting opposition from hard-line conservatives and laid the groundwork for blaming the White House if a deal fails.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) said this week that an immigration deal remains a long shot in a sharply divided Congress. Rep. Ral R. Labrador (R- Idaho) suggested that Boehner could lose his speakership if he pursues a bill in a midterm election year.
Aides emphasized that Boehner remains committed to immigration reform and said he raised concerns about Obama because they had emerged as a consensus during the retreat. But his remarks drew rebukes from advocacy groups frustrated by the verbal zigzags of a speaker who has spent 15 months calling immigration a top priority while refusing to bring any legislation to the House floor.
The White House and congressional Democrats were left searching for clues Thursday to determine whether Boehner was caving in the face of conservative opposition or merely trying to manage an unruly caucus to avoid a full-scale revolt.
Hes in a very difficult position, said Sen. Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.), a key architect of a comprehensive Senate immigration bill approved last summer. Hes trying to figure out, in my judgment, a way to get this done without his caucus too many in his caucus rebelling.
Other Democrats were more pessimistic.
He put a test balloon up there and I thank him for that but I dont think he got the majority support, so hes going to try to put blame on the president, said Rep. Henry Cuellar (Tex.), who added that Boehners comments confirmed things he has heard from his Republican colleagues in recent days.
If you were the Republicans and you think youve got the Democrats on a good issue, like Obamacare, why would you muddle the message before you go into an election? Cuellar said.
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WASHINGTON Just a week after Republicans raised hopes for a bipartisan overhaul of the nation's immigration laws, House Speaker John A. Boehner all but abandoned the effort Thursday, saying it would be "difficult" to get any legislation approved this year by his GOP majority.
Boehner's sudden shift, coming after his high-profile unveiling last week of Republican immigration principles that were partly embraced by the White House, left immigration advocates fuming and renewed speculation that the speaker's tenuous grip on a rebellious rank-and-file was slipping again.
It also raised questions about the GOP's effort to rebrand itself among Latinos and other minority voters, who largely abandoned the Republican Party in the 2012 presidential election, and many of whom see immigration reform as a top priority.
At a Republican retreat Jan. 30, Boehner proposed a set of immigration reforms that included legal status for the 11 million people living in the U.S. illegally but no special path to citizenship. The next day, President Obama hinted that a compromise might be achievable, even though he had previously pushed for a special route to citizenship.
Boehner received a far less enthusiastic and at times hostile response from his own party's conservatives, who complained there was little value in engaging in an issue that deeply divides Republicans. Top GOP strategists warned that undertaking immigration reform this year would turn off the conservative voters they need this fall to retain the House majority and flip control of the Senate.
Conservative activists who view legal status for immigrants as "amnesty" flooded Boehner's office telephones this week. One group, ForAmerica, made an estimated 5,500 calls to the switchboard. Comments on the speaker's website were harsh: "You are a turncoat," read one.
Some of the more outspoken tea party lawmakers in the House renewed their threats to unseat Boehner from the speaker's chair.
Rep. Raul R. Labrador (R-Idaho), among the hard-liners, suggested that any moves by Boehner to bring up immigration legislation this year "would be a terrible mistake on his part, a political miscalculation on his part. And that's why I don't think he's going to do it."
At his weekly media briefing, Boehner acknowledged the opposition. "I've never underestimated the difficulty in moving forward this year," he said.
Some Republican analysts suggested Boehner's comments were an attempt to lower expectations on a reform bill while he shores up support among reluctant lawmakers.
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Immigration advocates take part in a National Day of Dignity and Respect march on October 5, 2013 in Los Angeles, California. John Moore, Getty Images
This post originally appeared on Slate.
Twice people referenced this scene as I called around looking for the latest on immigration reform.It was not dead yet, various people suggested, even though House Speaker John Boehner just announced that progress was stalled because Republican members didn't trust the president. If that was the hurdle, it was the equivalent of idling the hearse, because trust is not likely to bloom afresh in the bosom of House Republicans in an election year on this volatile topic.
But immigration reform backers were not taking this dark view.White House Press Secretary Jay Carney said Boehner's remarks were merely a sign that the process will take time. Sen. Chuck Schumer was not discouraged either. "I think Boehner has tried,"said Simon Rosenberg, president of the New Democrat Network, and a longtime advocate of immigration reform. "We are as close as we've ever been. I haven't given up."
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House Republicans latest revolt against immigration reform spells potential trouble for the partys 2016 presidential candidates. The last thing the GOP needs in 2016 is another primary season marked by debate and dissension over the fraught issue.
The partys handling of immigration-reform legislation since President Obama won reelection with 71 percent of the Hispanic vote reprises a decades-long pattern that has weakened the GOP in the competition for Hispanic votes. On the one hand, there is a recognition that the party needs to do more to attract Hispanic votes. On the other, there are repeated actions, both individual and collective, that send the opposite signal.
That is what has happened over the past few weeks. At one point, House leaders, led by Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio), issued a list of principles for reform legislation that included a path to legal status but not to citizenship. That suggested a collective determination to pass something this year. Then, after a backlash from the outside groups that have long been Boehners nemeses, the speaker did an abrupt about-face, saying that a lack of trust that Obama would enforce the law made passage this year a heavy lift.
Perhaps the speaker is playing an exceedingly clever game to keep everyone guessing, a perils-of-Pauline soap opera in which he has already sketched out the scenario that ends with the passage of some notable piece of legislation this year. After all, hes given every indication that immigration reform is something he wants to do, something he believes is good for the country and good for his party.
More likely, he is reflecting the views of the partys most conservative members and those outside groups, who in turn reflect the views of many rank-and-file Republicans. Comprehensive reform, including a path to citizenship, enjoys majority support nationally. But conservative Republicans continue to oppose a bill that includes any path to citizenship.
Some Republicans are suggesting that they should not clutter up the midterm elections with an issue that divides their party and instead try to energize their voters by focusing on the issue that most unites Republicans, Obamas Affordable Care Act. Many House Republicans hate the bipartisan bill that was passed by the Senate last year. If the GOP could win control of that chamber, it might be able to write legislation more to its liking and force the president to accept it.
There is no question that the politics of this are difficult for Boehner. Could he wait to push forward this year until it would be too late for conservative challengers to mount primary campaigns against incumbent House Republicans? Will there be a better opportunity next year? Will Republicans trust Obama more next year? What is the maximum Boehner can get now as opposed to then? Would support for legal status, rather than a path to citizenship, be enough to position Republicans better to start courting Hispanics on other issues?
But another question that Republicans should be asking is: What are the consequences of inaction? Can they afford another presidential nomination contest in which immigration reform plays a central role, as it did in 2012? There is debate inside the party over how much immigration hurt Mitt Romney in the general election. But no one is arguing that it helped him, and few would say a fresh debate in 2016 would be a net plus for their nominee, unless that nominee had run forcefully in favor of comprehensive reform.
A year ago, it looked as if most of the likely GOP presidential candidates in 2016 would be advocates of comprehensive reform. The task force created by Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus a group that was weighted toward the establishment wing of the party recommended support for such a measure. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) took a lead role in helping produce a bipartisan Senate bill. Others who are considering running in 2016 made statements indicating at least some level of support for comprehensive legislation.
Today, that support is far more muted, if it exists at all. The conservative intelligentsia is split on what to do. The base is clearly opposed to comprehensive reform. Given the prospective field of candidates for 2016, its likely that those running will include outright opponents of a path to citizenship. Whoever becomes the nominee will risk having been pushed further to the right than is politically safe for a general election.
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