Its been seen as an immutable law of Republican politics: Support immigration reform, and risk losing your seat to a more conservative challenger.
But a review of GOP congressional primaries over the past decade by the pro-immigration reform group FWD.us suggests thats actually more myth than reality: Of the House Republicans whove lost their seats in primaries, rarely was immigration a major factor.
Purely from a quantitative standpoint, the percentage of GOP primary voters who are hostile to what we might call all manner of immigration reform is pretty low, said pollster Jon Lerner, whos working with the Mark Zuckerberg-funded immigration reform group, FWD.us. Its about 20 to 25 percent or so. The Republican primary voters are much more concerned about border security and illegal hiring of illegal immigrants than they are concerned about a path toward legalization, or citizenship, to those who are already here.
(Also on POLITICO: 'War on women' takes on immigration)
Fourteen House members and senators have lost in primaries over the past decade, according to the group. Of those races, immigration was decisive in the defeat of Rep. Chris Cannon, who lost to current Utah Rep. Jason Chaffetz in 2008.
There have been other races in the past four years in which opponents pointed to an incumbents support for immigration reform to undermine his conservative bona fides Dick Lugar in Indiana and Bob Bennett in Utah are two examples.
But very infrequently has it been a deciding issue in Republican vs. Republican races, reform proponents say, despite the charged debate surrounding the issue and worry that any compromise will spur a conservative challenge.
(Also on POLITICO: Poll: A shift on immigration reform)
That combined with the fact that the window is closing for challengers to file to run, let alone mount viable campaigns is reason for pro-reform Republicans to forge ahead on the issue this year, reform advocates say. Shortly after releasing principles for immigration reform that buoyed the hopes of reform advocates, House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) said its unlikely the House will move on the issue any time soon.
There is no good time to do this is the sense that a vocal minority will get ginned up regardless, said Rob Jesmer, the campaign manager of FWD.us.
See more here:
FWD.us: GOP primary fears inflated