Rand Paul on Republican Party and Immigration Reform
Senator acknowledges that his party could have been more inclusive of non-white Americans. Watch Vanity Fair on The Scene: http://thescene.com Subscribe to the all-new Vanity Fair channel...
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Rand Paul on Republican Party and Immigration Reform - Video
By David Damore October 9 at 12:17 PM
President Obamas decision to put off executive action on immigration until after November was perceived as a response to political pressures. Recent polling indicates that support for immigration reform has declined and voters are evenly split with respect to which party is more likely to do a better job handling immigration.
In this context, the political calculations underlying Obamas decision rests upon three assumptions: Executive action is a net negative for the Democrats Senate candidates; any potential decrease in Latino turnout that the delay engenders will have little effect because Latino voters, outside of Colorado, are not sufficiently concentrated in states with competitive Senate races; by acting after November the Democrats will win back the support of immigration-centric voters angered by the delay.
I examine the evidence relevant to the first two assumptions.
Support for the first assumption is evident in polling, since public opinion on this issue is somewhat muddled. In a recent New York Times/CBS Poll, 10 percent of respondents indicated that immigration was the most important issue shaping their vote for Congress (14 percent indicated it was the second most important issue) and over two-thirds supported allowing unauthorized immigrants to stay in the country, 54 percent supported a pathway to citizenship, and 51 percent supported executive action. At the same time when asked if they would be more or less likely to vote for congressional candidates who support a pathway to citizenship 30 percent said this would make them more likely, 39 percent indicated it would make them less likely, and 26 percent responded it would make no difference.
In contrast, for most Latinos immigration reform is the animating issue. A June poll conducted by Latino Decisions for the American Progress Fund suggests that enthusiasm for voting among Latinos would decrease by 54 percent and their support for Democratic candidates would decrease by 57percent if executive action were not takenbeforethe election. Although these data are from a national sample and may not project to particular state contexts, they suggest the centrality of immigration to the political participation of Latino voters.
As for the second assumption, clearly Colorado is the state where any decrease in Latino turnout hurts the Democrats prospects. To examine this potential, Table 2 presents the partisanship of registered Colorado Latinos, sorted by their probability of voting as estimated by Latino Decisions and L2s micro-targeting models. While 72 percent of Colorado Latinos are likely Democratic voters, just 45 percent have a high probability of voting in November. What about the Latino voters who favor the Democrats or are persuadable, but have lower probabilities of voting (the blue-shaded cells)? If these voters were mobilized in response to executive action, then the pool of potential Latinos voting Democratically would more than double. Absent executive action, there may be little incentive for these voters to participate in November.
At the other end of the spectrum is Arkansas; a state with a fraction of the number of registered Latinos as Colorado (see Table 3). Note that roughly half of Arkansas Latinos are independents. As a consequence, less than 20 percent of the Latino electorate has a high probability of voting Democratic a number that could be potentially increased twofold if Latino voters in the blue cells were mobilized.
Although North Carolina (Table 4) is home to a growing Latino voting population, just 10percent of these voters have a high probability of voting Democratic in November a total that is close to the share of Latinos who are predicted to vote Republican. To be sure, there are significantly more Democratic leaning or persuadable Latino voters (the blue cells) than Republicans in North Carolina. The lack of executive action coupled with Democratic Sen.Kay Hagans statements urging Obama not to act may give these voters little reason to participate in November.
The contours of Latino participation for the three other statesGeorgia, Kansas, and Michiganare similar to North Carolina. With the exception of Georgia, likely Democrats and those who might be persuaded to vote Democratic far outnumber likely Republicans. Among Latinos with a high probability of voting, the gap narrows considerably and in Georgia our model predicts more Republican than Democratic high probability voters.
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Monkey Cage: Will Obamas delay on immigration cost the Democrats votes among Latinos?
Job growth and immigration reform are among the issues in the race for the 11th Congressional District.
State Rep. Darlene Senger, R-Naperville, is challenging U.S. Rep. Bill Foster, D-Naperville, for Illinois 11th Congressional District seat. The 11th District includes North Aurora, Aurora, Naperville, Lisle and Joliet.
Senger has been a state representative since 2009. Before that, she was on the Naperville City Council from 2002 to 2008.
Foster has held the seat since November 2012 after defeating former U.S. Rep. Judy Biggert. From 2008 to 2011, Foster represented Illinois 14th Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives. He was defeated for the seat by then-state Sen. Randy Hultgren, R-Winfield.
Senger said she is concerned about Illinois lackluster job growth.
I want to get back to the day where we have good policies in place to create not just more jobs, but quality jobs and jobs with opportunities, Senger said. I feel bad for the kids in college. They have big college loans, but there is nothing for them when they get out.
She said government overregulation has helped to dampen job growth.
Weve created 25 percent more regulations since 2008 than we ever have in the history of our country, Senger said. It is doing nothing but stifling and choking off opportunities that we could put in place.
As a businessman, Foster said he understands the needs of business owners, including the nations tax code needs to be simplified. Foster said he started a company with his brother that now manufactures more than half of the theater lighting equipment in the United States.
Foster said in order to continue growing the regions economy, we need to invest in advanced manufacturing technologies and training in order to prepare our children to compete in a global workforce.
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Jobs, immigration among issues in 11th Congressional District race
Republicans will commit political suicide if they fail to pass immigration reform, President Obama saidThursdayduring a town hall meeting in Los Angeles.
It's anybody's guess how Republicans are thinking about this, Obama said. If they were thinking long-term politically, it is suicide for them not to do this.
At the same time, Obama said, the Tea Party and others who often express virulent opposition to immigration reform are making Republican lawmakers reluctant.
Still, the president predicted that immigration reform would pass Congress before the end of his presidency.
Congress will see the light because the logic of it is too compelling, Obama said. "I'm going to keep fighting on this.
Despite his optimism that Congress would pass comprehensive immigration reform, Obama reiterated his pledge to take executive action on immigration in the period between the midterm elections and the end of the year. The president has said he's taking those steps because House Republicans failed to move on a bipartisan Senate immigration bill.
On Thursday, Obama hinted that one executive action he was contemplating would expand the H1-B visa program, which allows skilled immigrants to come to the U.S. to work. Corporate supporters of immigration reform have suggested Obama could extend work permits to the dependents of all current H1-B holders in a way that they would not count against existing caps, freeing up more visas for foreign workers.
Still, Obama warned, whatever I do through the executive branch will not be as effective as comprehensive immigration reform passed by Congress.
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Obama: 'It is suicide' for GOP to not do immigration reform
White House press secretary Josh Earnest gestures as he answers a question during the daily press briefing at the White House in Washington, Wednesday, Oct. 8, 2014. (Associated Press) more >
The White House said Wednesday that President Obama delayed his decision on immigration reform until after the midterm elections because he didnt want Republicans to win on the issue and become emboldened by it.
The concern is that, had the president moved forward with his announcement prior to Election Day, you would have seen Republican candidates do more to make the immigration issue central to their campaign, said White House press secretary Josh Earnest. And in the event that they were successful in their campaign, the concern would be that they would cite their opposition to immigration reform as a reason for their success.
He added, That is not a storyline that the president wanted, or that anybody here wanted to contribute to.
Mr. Earnests explanation went a bit beyond previous justifications for the delay, which were mainly that Mr. Obama didnt want to inject the subject into a partisan election.
The president is expected to take executive action in the lame-duck session of Congress on immigration, likely to include a broadening of deportation waivers for some of the estimated 11 million illegal immigrants.
Mr. Earnest said the White House believes the vast majority of congressional races wont be swayed by candidates who oppose immigration reform.
But he said the presidents decision to postpone an announcement was less an issue about trying to dictate or influence the outcome of the elections and more about making sure that the immigration issue is not a casualty of the post-election political analysis.
Thats the that is a complicated case to make, but it is important to protecting the political viability of an issue that the president thinks is a top domestic priority, and thats immigration reform, he said.
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White House: Obama doesn't want immigration reform to be 'casualty' of election