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Updated: Friday, January 27, 2017, 4:51 PM

MEXICO CITY If President Trump makes good on threats to gut NAFTA and impose stiff tariffs on Mexican goods, economists say he risks a trade war that could lead to the very thing he is hoping to avoid a huge surge in Mexican migration to the United States.

The result would be catastrophe for the Mexican economy: Recession. A dramatic weakening of the peso, even below the historic lows it has already set amid Trump's bellicose rhetoric. Soaring inflation, interest rates and unemployment.

"Mexico is smaller than the U.S. and can be harmed by conflict more than the U.S. would be," said Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a Washington think tank that supports free trade.

A trade war with Mexico "drives down the peso and drives down opportunities for Mexicans to make a living in honest manufacturing jobs," he added. "There will be more desperate Mexicans crossing the border."

Trump could levy 20% tariff on Mexican imports to pay for wall

And the U.S. would by no means be immune from the fallout.

Mexico is the United States' third-largest trading partner with some $583.6 billion in cross-border commerce in 2015, according to the Office of the United States Trade Representative. That included a U.S. trade deficit of $58 billion. America buys about 80 percent of Mexico's exports, with automobiles, electrical machinery and fuels topping a long list that also includes agricultural goods such as fruit, vegetables, wine and beer.

The Trump administration's proposal this week for a 20% tax on imports from Mexico to pay for the promised border wall was quickly walked back by officials as just one of multiple "options."

It could also face stiff opposition in Congress including from Republicans who favor free trade. Those include Sens. John McCain and Jeff Flake of the border state of Arizona, who publicly came out in support of NAFTA. McCain noted that it has increased his state's exports to Mexico and Canada by $5.7 billion, or 236%, since its enactment in 1994.

By escalating tensions with Mexico, Trump is playing with fire

The worst case scenario of a trade war is frightening to contemplate, economists say.

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If the U.S. were to slap a tax on Mexican imports, it would violate the terms of NAFTA and nullify the pact, said Alfredo Coutino, Latin America director at Moody's Analytics.

Mexico could impose retaliatory tariffs, and the resulting uncertainty would spook investors and businesses, including U.S. companies with operations in Mexico that could pull out.

The peso, already sorely weakened at about 21 to the dollar, could fall to 25, 28 or even lower, Coutino continued. Unemployment would rise. Mexicans' real purchasing power would plummet as a result, and inflation could soar to double digits by the end of the year. Interest rates could also top 10 percent. The Mexican government would be forced into fiscal tightening measures, putting additional downward pressure on the economy and throwing it into recession.

Trump signs order authorizing work on Mexico border wall

America would suffer too, but not as much. Moody's forecasts that a trade war would slightly reduce U.S. economic growth and cost 300,000 American jobs after a year.

Mexico has been here before, most notably when a sharp peso devaluation in 1994 touched off a nearly 6% economic contraction.

Hundreds of thousands of Mexican job-seekers poured over the border into the United States, one of the reasons the U.S. organized a $50 billion International Monetary Fund bailout of its southern neighbor in 1995.

If the U.S. economy keeps improving while Mexico's tanks, experts say, expect more of the same. And bulking up the physical barrier may not keep migrants out, with some estimates saying 40% of illegal immigration results from people who come to the U.S. legally and then overstay their visas. Canada does not require visas of Mexican citizens, so there's nothing to stop people from flying to Canada and crossing the United States' porous northern frontier.

Mexican president asserts Mexico will not pay for any wall'

Critics say the U.S. president's obsession with illegal migration ignores the fact that the phenomenon has waned dramatically in recent years, and point to the irony that his policies could reverse that trend. The Pew Research Center reported in November that the number of unauthorized Mexican immigrants in the U.S. fell from 6.95 million in 2007, to 5.85 to million in 2014.

Coutino predicted that economic chaos in Mexico would strengthen the cartels that traffic drugs into the U.S. another stated target of the border wall as unemployed people are more vulnerable to recruitment by the gangs.

"You will have a neighbor to the south of your border with unemployment, with social problems, with rising criminality," Coutino said. "Do you want to have a neighbor like that? That's the question that Trump and his team should be asking themselves."

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Trump's trade war with Mexico could cause illegal immigration - New York Daily News

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And you know, you say youve had a tough day. You know, I dont know if you understand what a tough day is in the life of a parent who has lost a child at the hands of an illegal in this country, Wilkerson began.

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Oh, Vargas said, smirking and raising his eyebrows at Wilkerson.

[Y]ou are legal or illegal, its one way or the other, there is no grey area on that, she continued as Vargas shook his head.

Youve had plenty of time in this country to get in line[and] come in the front door. Your parents brought you here undocumented, and that is something that is a question you will have to have for your parents, she said. But you have had plenty of time to get in line, and we dont have to make any excuses for that.

We have to do nothing for the illegal here, she said. They need to come in, and come through the front door. There is a process. It needs to be ongoing and enforced.

Wilkersons son, Joshua, died onNovember 16, 2010, after an illegal alien classmate brought into the U.S. as a 10-year-old beat him, strangled him, and tortured him to death, later tying him up and setting his body on fire in a field. Years later, theconvicted murderer still bragged about his killing skills in court while excitedly demonstratinghow he murdered the 100-lb. Joshua.

Instead of getting Joshua home that day from school, we got an autopsy report, Wilkerson testified before a Senate hearing in July 2015.He was kicked so hard in the stomach that it sent his spleen into his spine, and sliced it in two The medical examiner said it was torture.

This was our familys 9/11 terrorist attack by a foreign invader, whether you want to recognize it or whether you do not, Wilkerson said.This government continues to fail or even recognize that we have an issue. Americans are dying daily at the hands of criminals that we dont even know are here.

Wilkerson has fought for years as an advocate for American families who lost loved ones to illegal alien crime as part of the Angel Moms, brought together by the nonprofit Remembrance Project.

Vargas later complained he lived in a grey area in the U.S. as an illegal alien who refuses to leave the country.

I live in the grey area. This is not black and white, he said.

There is no grey area, Wilkerson said.

There is not just illegal versus illegaloh, I live in the grey area, he continued. Millions of people live the grey area every day.

You are in this country illegally, and thats it, Wilkerson replied.

Watch the entire exchange, with Wilkerson asking how Vargas and other illegal aliens manage to obtain Social Security cards, here.

Originally posted here:

Angel Mom Laura Wilkerson to Jose Antonio Vargas: There Is No 'Grey Area' With Illegal Immigration - Breitbart News

VERIFY: Illegal immigrants taking jobs

Danielle Serino , WKYC 7:12 PM. EST January 27, 2017

We couldn't go much higher than this.

"I'm working on a story about illegal immigration and its impact on jobs for American workers.

That was me, reaching out to Governor John Kasich.

"To see what's going on in our state," I said to his staff.

He wasn't available to talk, but workers have quite a lot to say on the topic

We do not need them taking our money, services and our children's time, said one protestor.

But are they really taking our money? Well, after a lot of research, we found the majority of illegal immigrants are hired for jobs that require: very little English, where they need limited tech or supervisory skills and where they have little interaction with the public.

And that will affect some of our lowest skilled workers, not only with competition for jobs... but with wages. Because the more workers that are available, the less employees have to pay them.

But they are often jobs Americans don't want according to Dr. Jooyoun Park, who specializes in International Trade at Kent State University

"They are usually small farming, food processing like slaughterhouses, chicken, all those packaging Usually jobs employers have a hard time finding workers for, she says.

According to the think tank the Urban Institute, census data confirms most illegal immigrants and Americans, aren't competing for the same jobs.

It shows that the top 3 occupations for immigrants, without a high school education, are maids or housekeepers, cooks, and agricultural workers.

For Americans without a diploma, the top jobs are cashiers, sales workers and truck drivers. Plus, janitors or building cleaners.

But even if you don't believe that data, there is no denying this: A big part of this problem comes from all the employers who hire illegals...because they're cheap labor.

Only 22 states in the country have laws requiring employers to use the Governments E-Verify system, which uses Social Security data to check whether someone is a citizen. Ohio is not one of them.

Which means... until American companies put the interests of our workers ahead of their profits, theres plenty of blame to go around.

So we'll say this is Verified.

( 2017 WKYC)

WKYC

FULL TEXT: Read Trump's presidential executive orders regarding the border wall and immigration

WKYC

Trump to propose 20% Mexican border tax to pay for wall

WKYC

Trump orders clamp down on immigrant 'sanctuary cities,' pushes border wall

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VERIFY: Are illegal immigrants taking jobs? | WKYC.com - WKYC-TV

President Donald Trump announced formal plans Wednesday to build a wall along the Mexican border. If you knew a neighbor or co-worker to be in the country illegally, would you turn them in?

Cambridge, Boston, Somerville and other sanctuary cities found themselves in President Donald Trumps crosshairs Wednesday.

Trump, who has railed against illegal immigration on the campaign trail, signed executive orders Wednesday to jump-start construction of a wall on the Mexican border and to strip federal grant funding from sanctuary cities communities that have official policies designed to restrict cooperation with federal immigration enforcement.

Sanctuary jurisdictions across the United States willfully violate Federal law in an attempt to shield aliens from removal from the United States. These jurisdictions have caused immeasurable harm to the American people and to the very fabric of our Republic, the executive order states.

The term sanctuary cities is informal, and specific policies may vary from community to community. Sanctuary city policies typically state that municipal officials will not honor detainment requests unless federal immigration agents have a criminal warrant, or there is a legitimate law enforcement reason for detainment besides a persons immigration status.

Massachusetts communities that have passed sanctuary city policies include Cambridge, Boston, Somerville, Amherst, Northampton and Springfield.

Somerville Mayor Joseph Curtatone said Wednesday that being a sanctuary city does not break any existing laws.

Sanctuary means that our local police and agencies do not and will not profile our residents to run immigration checks on them, he said.

He vowed that Somerville wont back down on the issue.

"If we have to make a stand for the constitution, we will make that stand, he said. If we have to make a stand for the facts and the falsehoods, we will make that stand. Tearing our communities apart serves to only tear them down.

Boston Mayor Marty Walsh said he was deeply disturbed by Trumps actions.

We will not back down from our values that make us who we are as a city, Walsh said in a statement. We will fight for our residents, whether immigrant or not, and provide the best quality of life for all Bostonians. I will use all of my power within lawful means to protect all Boston residents even if that means using City Hall itself as a last resort.

On the campaign trail, Trump frequently called for increasing border security, spoke about crimes committed by undocumented immigrants and advocated for mass deportations. The executive order he signed Wednesday stated that immigrants living in the country illegally pose a significant threat to national security and public safety.

According to the Center for Immigration Studies, a think tank that advocates for restricting immigration, there were roughly 300 sanctuary cities that rejected more than 17,000 detention requests from Jan. 1, 2014 through Sept. 30, 2015.

Supporters of sanctuary city policies say they can encourage undocumented immigrants who are the victims of crimes to come forward to police without fear of deportation, enhancing public safety. They also argue that deportations may tear apart families and lead to racial profiling.

Massachusetts Attorney General Maura Healey characterized Trumps executive order as reckless.

Strong, independently-governed communities are part of what makes Massachusetts great, Healey said in a statement. The Presidents executive order is an irresponsible attempt to coerce our communities into conducting his mass deportations, and would impact all residents by stripping federal funding for roads, schools, police, health care, the elderly, and assistance for those in need. My office will be watching closely and I will be ready to stand with our cities and towns in the coming days.

U.S. Rep Joe Kennedy III called Trumps orders the actions of a scared government, not a strong one. He called for lawmakers to undo his damage.

A great nation does not wall itself in. A confident nation does not close its door to the people that need her protection most, Kennedy said in a statement. A tolerant nation does not target children who have only known her streets or retaliate against communities that protect their neighbors. And a nation built on the sweat and sacrifice of generations of immigrant families does not take that patriotism for granted.

Katie Bowler of the Somerville Journal contributed to this report.

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DAILY POLL: Illegal immigration - The Patriot Ledger

William Xavier Andrews Published 4:00 p.m. CT Jan. 24, 2017 | Updated 4:37 p.m. CT Jan. 25, 2017

William X. Andrews is a retired college history professor who lives in Columbia.(Photo: Submitted)

Donald Trump put Mexico in his crosshairs when he declared undocumentedMexican immigrants rapists and accused Mexico of stealing American jobs.

Demagoguery requires scapegoats, and Mexico is an easy target because of proximity. If the new presidenttruly wishes to heal the wounds in a country he helped divide, he will find that such insults are not easily forgiven or forgotten.

The great irony of the illegal Mexican immigration issue is something that is almost always overlooked by those who disparage Mexico. We acquired half of Mexico by 1848 primarily because of the illegal immigration of citizens of the United States into the Mexican state of Texas in the 1820s and early 1830s.

When Mexico gained its independence from Spain in 1821, Texas was only thinly settled by Spanish-speaking Tejanos. When American impresarios petitioned Mexico to allow some American families to settle in Texas, they were granted permission on the condition that they become Mexican citizens, embrace the Catholic faith, and obey Mexican laws.

However, as these legal Americans arrived to take advantage of free land, thousands of illegal Americans also crossed the border. It wasnt long before the illegals outnumbered the original Tejano population.

Moreover, as Mexican law prohibited slavery, the newcomers came up with creative language to describe their human property as other than property. Officials in Mexico were aware of the problem but there was never a sufficient Mexican military presence in Texas to stem the flow of illegals or to enforce the law against slavery. Exacerbating the challenge was the fact that the Mexican Constitution of 1824 assigned to the national government insufficient powers of purse and sword.

In response to a law in 1830 prohibiting further American immigration to Texas and President Santa Annas campaign to replace the federal system with a more centralized authority, Texans rebelled in 1836 and declared the Lone Star Republic. The rebels created a constitution that legalized slavery and elected a provisional president who opposed the right of Tejanos to vote.

Some 78 percent of the volunteers flooding into Texas to fight Mexico in 1836 arrived illegally (after 1830). Heroes of the Alamo like Davy Crockett and William Traviswere illegal aliens, as was Sam Houston, whose army defeated Santa Anna at San Jacinto.

A decade later it was our annexation of Texas, a disputed border, and Mexican refusal to sell us California that prompted the Mexican War by which we acquired the northern half of Mexico.

The story of conflicting loyalties and cultural divide is at the heart of how actress Eva Longoria describes her family history. She explains that her ancestors arrived in Texas in 1603, some 173 years before the United States existed and 243 years before the Mexican War.

We didnt cross the border, Longoria reminds us. The border crossed us.

William Xavier Andrews is a retired college history professor who lives in Columbia.

An earlier version of this op-ed hadWilliam Travis' name incorrectly spelled.

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When Americans were the illegal immigrants - The Tennessean