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Mr Wilders would be likely to take the country out of the bloc, Marine Le Pen the Front National leader would be likely to follow suit, leaving Germany faced with the prospect of funding the cash hole.

The PVV leader has been placed first in the polls with 31 per cent of the vote, a month before the Dutch elections.

If Mr Wilders does pull off a shock win, it could pave the way for the far right leader, Marine Le Pen to come to victory in France in May.

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I think that the EU could survive just about with Britain leaving, but a Dutch departure would be a killer blow as they were part of the original six

Director General at Institute of Economic Affairs, Mark Littlewood

This would leave Angela Merkels country as the only substantial economy left standing in the crumbling bloc, leaving the Chancellor to fund the giant 35billion-a-year cash hole of three countries with stable economies leaving the European Union.

Annually, France pays the EU 16.4 billion, The Netherlands 5 billion and the UK 16 billion

Economists also believe that if France and the Netherlands were to leave the bloc, then the other countries would be left questioning themselves why they are still members and bring the whole EU tumbling down.

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Director General at Institute of Economic Affairs, Mark Littlewood, said: The pinch on Germany would get greater.

I think that the EU could survive just about with Britain leaving, but a Dutch departure would be a killer blow as they were part of the original six.

It would lose its credibility and begin to unravel and would send greater shock waves politically.

He added: Theoretically the Germans could afford it.

It would depend on the patience of the German electorate, there is political evidence that the patience is wearing thin."

Chancellor Merkel's popularity has plummeted as the support for the anti EU party, Alternative for Germany, is riding high in the polls.

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France and the Netherlands were two of the six founding members of the EU, along with Belgium, Germany, Luxembourg and Italy.

The economist said that if a country like the Netherlands left, it would have more chance of creating a domino effect on other countries than Brexit would have, as it has been part of the project since the beginning.

He said: You could say that the UK was not committed to the project.

But, with Netherlands and France, it will start to put into question whether the EU will have to completely alter in its present state.

In January, at a meeting of far-right leaders in Koblenz, Germany, Mr Wilders said: Yesterday a new America, today Koblenz and tomorrow a new Europe.

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Mr Wilders promises include imposing border controls, stopping Islamic Sharia law and sending home migrants who reject Dutch values or commit crimes.

Neil MacKinnon, from Economists for Brexit, said: Germany would struggle, the question is whether the taxpayer would take on an open ended cheque.

Germany does not want to bail the rest of the EU out. There are economic problems in the EU, debt in Italy, whether they are willing to pay is a massive issue.

The EUs shelf life is diminishing by the day.

When you have just a few countries footing the bill, there would be voter resistance, there would be a push back against it.

Mr Mackinnon thinks that this black hole in EU funding is a big issue in Brussels, especially for Germany in their election year.

He said that once the Netherlands and France leave, the big question for the remaining countries will be, why should we stay in the EU now?

He added: If Germany had to pay an open-ended cheque to the EU, there could be a voter revolt, it could be a case of cant pay, wont pay.

Mr Mackinnon believes that the EU was an economic project doomed to failure and voters are pushing back in support of countries leaving.

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Geert Wilders victory in Dutch elections could be end for European ... - Express.co.uk

Gary Cohn, director of President Donalds Trump National Economic Council, has made a rather interesting statement. Weve been told we need deregulation to grow jobs in this country. We are not anti-regulation. We want smart regulation that allows our financial services to be the envy of the world, he said.

In simple words, Cohns statement means, In the US, regulation on banks will be reduced. At the same, in the EU regulation on banks will be increased and that will be important for investors.

Its remarkable that when we look at statistics by the Federal Reserve of St. Louis inCommercial and Industrial Loans, All Commercial Banks,we see that at the moment total loans stand at $2.099 trillion and the ascending curve of the total amount is close to similar as the one we have seen in the run-up to the crisis from April 2004 to November 2008. The data are, in my opinion, food for thought.

Unsurprisingly, markets reacted positively on Friday with the S&P 500 Financials Index advancing 2 percent. Goldman Sachs rose 4.6 percent and Morgan Stanley reacted similarly with a plus of 5.5 percent, which was the biggest gain since the Trump election.

Besides that, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said European leaders may commit to a union of "different speeds" when they make a major declaration on its future at the next summit in Rome at the end of March, of course without Great Britain. That declaration of Rome should mark the 60th anniversary of the EU and in which they will have to set out the EUs post-Brexit roadmap.

If you ask me, yes this is important for long-term investors notwithstanding it got very little attention in the media.

Merkel said: We certainly learned from the history of the last years, that there will be as well a European Union with different speeds (!), that not all will participate every time in all steps of integration (!). I think this may be in the Rome declaration as well.

Merkel said the idea was to set out a plan for the next ten years of the EU, which has been buffeted by the Eurozone crisis, Brexit, migration, the Ukraine conflict and now faces a new challenge in the form of US President Donald Trump.

By the way, Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg, a group of the EU's founding members, also issued a statement on Friday backing a two-speed EU.

On March 25, we can expect a EU Declaration of Rome. Interestingly, the meeting in Rome will come just after the Dutch will have had their general elections on March 15.

Now, suppose the EU heads of state follow, which is to be expected, Mrs. Merkel idea that we could get a EU that should work at different speeds (!) because there is no other choice, then the legitimate question that arises is how could economies of the same union can perform well, not forgetting they all had their own currencies not so long ago, with a single currency whereby the euro has the same value for everybody?

We dont know if ECB PresidentMario Draghi hintedat something like Changes are in the air, but anyway in a prepared speech he gave last Thursday, which was before Mrs. Merkel comments, he stated: The euro area relied heavily on the notion that the integration process would itself create the incentives for sound policies. Faced with stronger competition through the single market and an inability to devalue, governments would be forced to address long-term structural problems and ensure fiscal sustainability. That this did not happen was in part because the single market process stalled

Finally, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble said in the German daily Tagesspiegel: The euro exchange rate is, strictly speaking, too low for the Germaneconomys competitive position.When Draghi embarked on the expansive monetary policy, I told him he would drive up Germanys export surplus...I promised then not to publicly criticize this policy course. But then I dont want to be criticized for the consequences ofthis policy.

Schaubles comments came after last week Peter Navarro, US President Donald Trumps top trade adviser, had toldthe Financial Timesthat Germany was exploiting the US and its EU partners by using a grossly undervalued euro to create a vast trade surplus.

Yes, it looks like there is some change in the air.

Etienne "Hans" Parisisis a bank economist who has advised global billionaires and governments on the financial markets and international investments.

2017 Newsmax Finance. All rights reserved.

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European Union at 'Different Speeds' May Thwart Long-Term Investors - Newsmax

Mr Donald Tusk

President of the European Council Rue de la Loi 175 1048 Brussels

Mr Jean-Claude Juncker

President of the European Commission Rue de la Loi 200 1049 Brussels

Ms Federica Mogherini

High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy / Vice-President of the European Commission Rue de la Loi 200 1049 Brussels

Mr Johannes Hahn

Commissioner for European Neighbourhood Policy & Enlargement Negotiations Rue de la Loi 200 1049 Brussels

February 1, 2017

Dear President Tusk, President Juncker, High Representative / Vice-President Mogherini,

We, the undersigned organizations, are writing in advance of Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyevs upcoming visit to Brussels and meeting with you. We urge you to use this high-level visit to insist that President Aliyev commits to concrete, lasting human rights reforms in Azerbaijan. Insisting on such reforms would help ensure that the EU guides its engagement with Azerbaijan in a manner that honors Article 21 of the Lisbon Treaty, and the EU strategic framework and action plan on democracy and human rights, by fostering democracy, the rule of law, the universality and indivisibility of human rights and fundamental freedoms.

President Aliyevs visit takes place following the EU Foreign Affairs Councils authorization of a mandate for negotiating a new partnership agreement between the EU and Azerbaijan. At the same time, the Azerbaijani government restricts the space for independent activism, critical journalism, and opposition political activity by imprisoning and harassing many activists, prominent human rights defenders, and journalists, as well as by adopting laws and regulations restricting the activities of independent groups and their ability to secure funding.

The Azerbaijani authorities are sensitive to concerns from partners such as the EU, as demonstrated by their release of 17 human rights defenders, journalists, and political activists in 2016. Despite this, the authorities continue to keep many other government critics wrongfully imprisoned, and have arrested more political activists and bloggers throughout 2016 and 2017, underscoring that partners can only expect to see meaningful results if they have principled and consistent engagement and set clear benchmarks for sustained reform.

Non-governmental organizations in Azerbaijan face serious obstacles to operating independently due to excessive legal and regulatory restrictions. Cabinet of Ministers regulations issued in January 2017, as part of the governments review of laws regulating NGOs and donors, offer limited prospect for fundamentally improving the operational environment for NGOs. Although the new regulations simplify some procedures for registration of foreign grants, they leave intact the large discretion of the authorities to arbitrarily deny their registration.

Azerbaijan violates its human rights commitments to free speech, assembly and other protections, blatantly ignores the European Court of Human Rights judgment in the Ilgar Mammadov case and blocks all funding to independent civil society organizations by any EU institution. Deepening engagement with a government without securing concrete and sustainable human rights improvements sends a message that these issues are not of concern to the EU and could lead to further deterioration in human rights protection.

In 2015 the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) downgraded Azerbaijans status from member to candidate, due to the inability of civil society to adequately participate in EITI decision-making processes because of the countrys severe restrictions on free speech and free association. In October 2016, after re-assessment, EITI chose not to reinstate Azerbaijans status due to a lack of improvements. The Open Government Partnership voted in May 2016 to downgrade Azerbaijans membership to inactive status, citing the authorities arrests of activists, freezing of NGO bank accounts and restrictions on foreign funding, and other concerns.

We urge the EU and its member states to secure tangible human rights improvements and changes from the government of Azerbaijan at the very outset of negotiations of the new partnership agreement. Any new partnership agreement signed with Azerbaijan should similarly include strong provisions committing the government to upholding universal human rights standards and securing lasting, meaningful human rights reforms.

Doing otherwise would also seriously question the principles set out in the EUs founding principles and in the EUs Strategic Framework on Human Rights and Democracy, as well as the commitments enshrined in the EU Guidelines on Human Rights Defenders and the EU Human Rights Guidelines on Freedom of Expression Online and Offline.

In light of this, in your upcoming meetings with President Aliyev, we urge you to insist on:

We also call upon relevant European Union institutions to abide by their commitments to transparency, including ahead of and during the process of negotiating the new partnership agreement between the European Union and Azerbaijan. Transparency and public scrutiny are fundamental elements of good governance.

We thank you for your attention and remain at your disposal for any further questions.

Sincerely,

Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum

Front Line Defenders

Human Rights House Foundation (HRHF)

Human Rights Watch

International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH).

International Partnership for Human Rights (IPHR)

Center for Civil Liberties, Ukraine

Democracy and Human Rights Resource Center, Azerbaijan

Election Monitoring and Democracy Studies Center (EMDS), Azerbaijan

Human Rights Club, Azerbaijan

Human Rights Information Center, Ukraine

Kharkiv Human Rights Protection Group, Ukraine

Legal Education Society, Azerbaijan

Public Association for Assistance to Free Economy, Azerbaijan

NGOs members of the Civic Solidarity Platform:

ARTICLE 19, UK

Crude Accountability, United States

HRM Bir Duino, Kyrgyzstan

Human Rights Monitoring Institute, Lithuania

Centre for the Development of Democracy and Human Rights, Russia

Human Rights Center of Azerbaijan

Index on Censorship, United Kingdom

Institute for Reporters Freedom and Safety (IRFS)

Kazakhstan International Bureau for Human Rights and Rule of Law

Macedonian Helsinki Committee

Moscow Helsinki Group

Norwegian Helsinki Committee

Office of civil freedoms, Tajikistan

Promo LEX, Moldova

Public Association Dignity, Kazakhstan

Public Verdict, Russia

The Kosova Rehabilitation Centre for Torture Victims

The Netherlands Helsinki Committee

The World Organisation Against Torture (OMCT), Switzerland

Ukraine Helsinki Human Rights Union and Analytical Center for Interethnic Cooperation and Consultations

NGOs members of the Human Rights House Network:

Barys Zvozskau Belarusian Human Rights House in exile, Vilnius (on behalf of the following NGOs):

Belarus Watch (ByWatch)

Belarusian Association of Journalists

Belarusian Helsinki Committee

City Public Association Centar Supolnasc

Human Rights Centre Viasna

Human Rights House Belgrade (on behalf of the following NGOs):

Belgrade Centre for Human Rights

Lawyers Committee for Human Rights YUCOM

Helsinki Committee for Human Rights in Serbia

Educational Human Rights House Chernihiv (on behalf of the following NGOs):

Ahalar

Civic Education Center Almenda

Chernihiv Public Committee of Human Rights Protection

Local Non-governmental Youth organizations R

Ukrainian Helsinki Human Rights Union

Human Rights House Oslo (on behalf of the following NGOs):

Health and Human Rights Info

Human Rights House Foundation

Human Rights House Tbilisi (on behalf of the following NGOs):

Article 42 of the Constitution

Caucasian Centre for Human Rights and Conflict Studies (CAUCASIA)

Georgian Centre for Psychosocial and Medical Rehabilitation of Torture Victims (GRCT)

Human Rights Centre (HRIDC)

Media Institute

Union Sapari

Human Rights House Voronezh (on behalf of the following NGOs):

Charitable Foundation

Civic Initiatives Development Centre

Confederation of Free Labor

For Ecological and Social Justice

Free University

Golos

Interregional Trade Union of Literary Men

Lawyers for labor rights

Memorial

Ms. Olga Gnezdilova

More:
Joint NGO Letter to the European Union Officials - Human Rights Watch (press release)

Brussels: The EU today insisted all parties must fully implement the Minsk ceasefire accords to restore peace in Ukraine, after US President Donald Trump stoked fresh concerns he could take a softer line on Russia.

Trump repeated over the weekend he wanted to work with President Vladimir Putin to fight the Islamic State group, and drew fire from across the US political spectrum by playing down alleged political assassinations in Russia.

The White House also raised eyebrows by referring to "Ukraine's long-running conflict with Russia" -- a framing of the situation that former national security advisor Susan Rice publicly criticised as a "distortion of... Recent history".

Russia annexed the Ukrainian region of Crimea in March 2014 and has supported separatists in the east of the country.

Asked about the US administration's remarks, EU foreign affairs head Federica Mogherini said she could not speculate about their meaning but she was clear what the European Union's position was.

The 28-nation bloc would "continue not to recognise" the illegal annexation of Crimea by Russia, Mogherini said as she arrived for an EU foreign ministers' meeting in Brussels. The EU also recognises "the need to fully implement the Minsk agreements, including or starting from a ceasefire and restoring calm to east Ukraine," she said.

"I cannot say where the US administration stands... I can only say where the EU stands on this," Mogherini added. British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson stressed there could be no easing of sanctions on Russia until peace was restored in Ukraine.

"The UK will be insisting that there is no case for relaxation of the sanctions, there is every case for keeping up pressure on Russia," Johnson said as he went into the meeting.

He said everyone was concerned by the recent upsurge in fighting between government troops and pro-Moscow rebels in the east.

Russia annexed Crimea after pro-EU protestors ousted pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych, sparking a conflict which has cost nearly 10,000 lives and plunged EU ties with Moscow into a deep freeze.

Trump meanwhile has repeatedly said he wants to improve relations with Putin, appearing to downplay events in Ukraine to the dismay of historic US allies in Europe.

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European Union says Ukraine rivals must stick by Minsk accords - Zee News

The presenter talked with Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, and Henry Newman from Open Europe, over the cost of Britain leavingtheEuropean Union.

Speaking on Sunday Politics, the host claimed Theresa May would find it very difficult in the future if she is forced to pay a 30billion bill to the EU.

Mr Grant suggested Brussels is expecting a figure up to the amount of 60bn before admitting it could be considerably lower.

However, host Neil exploded over the huge amounts of money that Britain could be forced to pay as a result of Brexit.

BBC

He said: Am I missing something here? If she ends up settling for a bill of about 30billion, which I think would be politically, no matter how popular she is, politically very difficult for her.

It does kill any idea that there is a Brexit dividend for Britain.

Mr Grant explained how this issue could potentially crash Brexit talks and leave the UK in a very dangerous position.

He said: Well some of what some of the senior officials in London and also Brussels are very worried that this particular issue could crash the whole talks.

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It may be politically impossible for Theresa May to accept a Brexit bill of 30billion

Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform

Because it may be politically impossible for Theresa May to accept a Brexit bill of 30billion.

If there is no deal and we leave the EU without a settlement then there is massive legal uncertainty.

If Article 50 ended in two years, no deal, what contract law applies, can aeroplanes take off from Heathrow? Nobody knows what legal rights you have if youre an EU citizen living in Britain or visa-versa.

The director added that Brussels believes this puts the EU in a very strong position as the UK prepares to leave.

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Issued by the Supreme Court of (top row, from the left) Lord Neuberger, Lord Mance, Lord Kerr, Lord Sumption, (bottom row, from the left) Lady Hale, Lord Clarke, Lord Wilson and Lord Hodge, who agreed with the majority decision that the Government could not trigger Article 50 without Parliamentary approval.

He added: If there is no deal at the end of two years then we crash out, disastrous for the British economy, bad for the European economy.

Therefore they think they have all the cards to play. And they are very worried that if it is mishandled domestically in Britain then we will have a crash.

The host was left furious over the potential issues that could come if the Prime Minister does not secure a good deal with the European Union.

He finished: We will wait a long time for that 350million a week or whatever it was that was meant to come from Brussels to spend on the NHS, thats not going to happen for the next five, six, seven years.

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'Am I missing something?' Andrew Neil FUMES over 30bn Brexit bill EU expects UK to pay - Express.co.uk