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By Pedro Gerson By Pedro Gerson February 23 at 3:51 PM

Pedro Gerson is a professor of law and economics at the Ibero-American University and the Mexico Autonomous Institute of Technology (ITAM), both in Mexico City.

Over the past few months both as a candidate and in his new capacity as U.S. president Donald Trump has issued a series of provocations that have brought U.S.-Mexico relations to their lowest point since the Mexican-American War of 1846. His brash Twitter diplomacy moved Mexican President Enrique Pea Nieto to take the unprecedented step of canceling a trip to the United States. Stepped-up raids by U.S. immigration authorities have stirred deportation fears in the Mexican immigrant community, and expressions of anti-Mexican sentiment have become so common that even a top Mexican diplomat recently endured public harassment. Last but not least, Trump has continued to vilify the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), raising doubts about its durability.

It would seem that there could be no bleaker scenario for the Mexican president. And yet Trump may actually turn out to be a blessing in disguise for Pea Nieto. In fact, Trump may offer Pea Nietos only chance of salvaging his partys chances in next years general election and potentially even his own legacy.

At 12 percent, Pea Nieto has the lowest approval rating of any Mexican president in history. Since 2013 the administration has committed one blunder after another. Most notably, the president has borne the brunt of a major corruption scandal involving his wife and a lavish home, managed to mishandle the largest human rights tragedy in recent Mexican history and, perhaps most unbelievably, legitimized candidate Trump by inviting him to Mexico on what looked like a state visit. Pea Nietos responses to all of these cases and crises has seemed at best incompetent, in some cases downright negligent.

In a televised address Jan. 25, Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto said that Mexico will not pay for President Trump's border wall. (Reuters)

Nevertheless, Trump offers Pea Nieto a welcome distraction and, more importantly, an opportunity. On the first point, the existence of a new villain, if nothing else, has given Pea Nieto a break from the negative headlines ofthe past few weeks. An unscientific survey of the four most-read newspapers in Mexico showed that, since his inauguration, Trump has been mentioned almost three times more often than Pea Nieto.

[Mexico may strike back. Heres how.]

Now Pea Nieto is well positioned to strike back, and his options are many. Mexicans all along thepolitical spectrum are offering the president suggestions on how to do this. A leftist collective called on the government to start accepting refugees in defiance of Trumps Muslim ban. Jorge Castaeda, a former minister of foreign affairs, has said that Pea Nieto should accept deported migrants from the United States only if they can prove that they are Mexican citizens. Given that many immigrants lack any identification, this measure would severely hamper deportation efforts. Others have recommended that Pea Nieto should collaborate with officials in the United States who are openly pro-immigration, appearing in public with figures such as California Gov. Jerry Brown. Finally, some have even argued that Pea Nietoshould refuse discussions on NAFTA in order to avoid a potentially devastating period of economic uncertainty during the renegotiation. If this were to happen, Trump would have an answer for NAFTAs demise to the largely Republican constituency that benefits from it.

Policies like these would represent a total reversal of the Mexican administrations current timid approach. Rather than responding to Trumps bravado with strength, Pea Nieto dumped his minister of foreign affairs in favor of someone with ties to Trumps inner circle. He also vacillated on the cancellation of his trip to the United States even after Trump issued an executive order mandating the border wall construction. Finally, Pea Nieto continues to insist on having an open dialogue with Washington.

Politically, confronting Trump may be Pea Nietos last shot at securing a win for his party in the 2018 presidential election. Currently, the presidents Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) would seem to have no chance against Andres Manuel Lpez Obrador, the lefts candidate. Nevertheless, the PRI has a strong machinery that can guarantee25 to 30 percent of the vote. If Pea Nieto stands up to Trump, he may be able to tap into nationalist sentiment to win the hearts of that 5to 10 percent of the electorate that his party will need to win the election.

Also, it is likely that such actions turn out to be better policy options than the continuance of Pea Nietos overtures. Trump has demonstrated that he will not budge regardless of the number of olive branches that are thrown at him. A firmer stance may in fact be the only way to protect Mexicans abroad and to give Pea Nieto room to negotiate with Trump.

If Pea Nieto were to pursue a more confrontational route, he would be returning to some of his partys foundational ideas. The PRI was founded in the 1920s in the wake of the Mexican Revolution, and gained traction over the next decades by enacting nationalistic policies such as the nationalization of oil and the glorification of the Mexican race. The boogeyman of the story was, of course, the United States, a country that had unjustly taken a large chunk of Mexican territory. Eventually the party and the country shifted their tunes, opening Mexico to the United States and the world. Even so, suspicion of the gringos has never really ended.

[Ernesto Zedillo: Mexico can thrive without Trump]

Pea Nieto could thus leverage the same nativist sentiments that Trump and the Brexiters have exploited. The difference is that he must temper his nationalism with a commitment to openness to all those who seek collaboration with Mexico. And promises wont suffice he will have to follow up his rhetoric with policy measures that stand in contrast to Trumps: commitment to free trade, openness to immigration at home and defense of Mexican citizens in the United States. Given Pea Nietos current unpopularity, however, even this strategy may not be enough to make voters change their minds about him and his party.

Adopting such a confrontational stance undoubtedly runs counter to the Mexican presidents own nature, which favors caution and compromise. Yet the realization that he has nothing to lose may persuade him, in the end, to stand up to Trump. Pea Nieto and Mexico can only benefit.

Continue reading here:
Donald Trump has given the Mexican president the biggest gift he could wish for - Washington Post

During the Oscars this Sunday, there will be at least one person in your Twitter feed who believes their opinions on the proceedings to be of the utmost importance. You know, the one who offers unsolicited criticisms of everything, from the stage design to the speeches to the actual films, as though the world were waiting with bated breath to hear their take.

US president Donald Trump has been among these self-appointed Twitter pundits in years past. Before he controlled the nuclear codes, he blessed his followers with non-stop analysis during the Oscars telecast and then did the same for viewers of the morning talk shows the next day.

This year, now that hes the president, Trump will not be watching the Oscarsat least according to White House press secretary Sean Spicer. That may or may not not stop him from offering his pronouncements.

Comedian Jimmy Kimmel hosts the Academy Awards on Sunday (Feb. 26) at 8:30pm US Eastern time on ABC. Lets take a look back at some memorable tidbits of Trumps Oscars analysis:

On the red carpet in 2012, TV host Ryan Seacrest was interviewing comedian Sacha Baron Cohen, who was in character promoting his movie The Dictator, when Cohen pretended to accidentally spill an urn filled with the ashes of recently deceased North Korean dictator Kim Jong-Il all over Seacrest. Always a professional, Seacrest played it cool and shrugged off the prank, but Donald Trump would not so quickly forget it.

Trump posted a video onto his YouTube channel attacking the disgraceful Cohen, and also apparently taking issue with how the security guard responded to the situation. Trumps rant quickly devolves into a violent fantasy about Cohen being punched in the face so many times that hes sent to the hospital.

In that same video, Trump offers his thoughts on Vanity Fairs post-Oscars party, which he did not attend. Trump says it was boring and that people were sleeping and there was no good feeling.

He then contends that the boring party was symblomatic (which is not a word) of the magazines declining stature.

After the 2013 ceremony, Trump phoned into the daily morning Fox News program Fox & Friends to gift the world his thoughts on the Oscars telecast the night before.

Trumps chief criticism was that Quentin Tarantinos slavery revenge film Django Unchained was probably one of the most racist movies Ive ever seen. Trump does not explain what he found racist in the film.

But Trump doesnt just review the Oscar-nominated filmshe reviews the event as a whole. Also in that appearance on Fox & Friends, Trump calls the 2013 telecast and its set: very average, okay, tacky, and terrible.

In subsequent years, Trump lambasted everything from the stage design to the singing to the annual In Memoriam segment.

Hidden among Trumps years of piping hot Oscars takes is one criticism that actually made some sense. Trump was very upset that Ben Affleck, who acted in and directed Argo, did not receive a nomination for best director, despite his film winning best picture. Its fairly sound logicdid Argo direct itself?and Trump is not the only one who felt Affleck was snubbed.

Trump is at his xenophobic best when talking about the Oscars. He was highly critical of English actor Daniel Day-Lewiss performance as US president Abraham Lincoln in Steven Spielbergs Lincoln, mostly because he thought the actors accent was detectable.

Hes not from this country, Trump complained on Fox & Friends in 2012. I dont think Lincoln had an English accent, to the best of my knowledge.

And then Trump went from pundit to historian: Lincoln never sounded like that, he said. I just dont think that Lincoln behaved like that. He talked very, very slowly. Lincoln, of course, died several years before humans created the ability to record sound, but Trump seemed pretty certain about the presidents vocal cadence. Actual historians arent so sure.

A few years later, in 2015, Trump expressed his resentment at people from foreign countries winning awards. Birdman director Alejandro Gonzlez Irritu took home three awards, a fact that caused Trump some annoyance.

It was a great night for Mexico, as usual, Trump said, again on Fox & Friends the morning after the Oscars that year. Was it that good? I dont hear that.

Trumps only suggestion for improving the Oscars? He should host the event himself.

Who knows? Perhaps in an alternate reality, Trump is hosting the Academy Awards on Sunday, instead of being the president of the United States.

Read more:
Donald Trump on the Oscars: They're just terrible and should be hosted by Donald Trump - Quartz

Donald Trump won the White House by promising his white voters that they would soon be able to put their feet on the necks of their fellow Americans with impunity and without consequence. This is Trumps promise to end political correctness translated into plain speech.

Make America Great Again was always more than a slogan. It was a threat and a promise that the wages of whiteness those unearned psychological and material privileges that come with being white in American would be redoubled under President Trump. To that end, Hispanic and Latino illegal immigrants would be punished for taking jobs from real Americans (i.e. white people). African-Americans would be disciplined by law and order. Arabs and Muslims would be made to cower in the face of American power. The homeland would be secured by building walls and through mass deportations. One side of the color line would be further oppressed; the other side of the color line would be elevated.

Trumpism is not a new story in American history. In many ways, it is a return to form and to the racialized Herrenvolk democracy created at the time of the founding.

This is a two-way transaction. While Trumps supporters would like to pretend that such is not the case, his promises do not come without a price. The pain that Trumps voters wanted to inflict on their fellow Americans is not unidirectional regardless of how much they wish it to be. Trump has been president of the United States for 30 days. The butchers bill has come due and the first payment has been tallied.

As I shared in an earlier piece forSalon, I will watch how Donald Trumps supporters are hurt by his policies, and I will make no apologies for my Schadenfreude. To that end, I have been keeping a list of the policies already enacted or promised by Trump that will hurt red state America as well as the so-called white working-class voters whoconstitute his base.

Donald Trump has already gutted financial regulationssuch as the Dodd-Frank Act. These protections were put in place to help prevent another financial disaster such as the Great Recession of 2008. Trump and the Republican Party have also removed guidelines that force retirement fund managers to work in the best interests of their clients. These acts are a gift to Trumps plutocrats and other gangster capitalists who he claims cant borrow money. These changes will also imperil the financial safety and security of the working-class and middle-class Americans who voted for him.

Donald Trump has plans to privatize the Freddie Mae and Fannie Mac home loan programs. This would likely eliminate the 30-year home mortgage loan thatis one of the primary paths to homeownership for working- and middle-class Americans. This is a direct assault on the ability of Americans who are not already rich to accrue intergenerational wealth, economic stability and upward mobility. This move will also further empower the financier and banking class that Trump disingenuously promised to rein in during his presidential campaign.

Trump has issued an executive order designed to destroy the Affordable Care Act by making it financially insolvent and otherwise unworkable. Ending the ACA will increase the likelihood of bankruptcy, mortgage foreclosure and auto repossession and increase human suffering across the United States by denying many people access to preventive and long-term health services. It has beenestimated that at least 43,000 people will die annuallyfrom lack of adequate health care if the ACA is repealed. The Republican war on the Affordable Care Actbeing felt acutely in many parts of rural and Rust Belt America that overwhelmingly voted for Trump.

Trumps plan to build a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border will be paid for, at least in theory, by a tax on imported goods. This is likely to cost the average American thousands of dollars. Trumps proposed deportation plans will also raise the costs of goods and services. Red state America is less economically prosperous and secure than more liberal and cosmopolitan blue state America. As such, regions that supported Trump are less well equipped to weather the economic storm that the presidentwill soon unleash.

Trump has attempted to enact an unconstitutional de facto ban on Muslims entering the United States. This will affect health care professionals many of whom work in underserved white rural and Rust Belt communities.Trumps Muslim ban is quite literally making his most enthusiastic voters sick.

Trump has also, by fiat, permitted coal and other companies to poison local water supplies with toxic pollutants. Again, he is literally making his most enthusiastic supporters sick with carcinogens and other lethal poisons.

There are many right-wing and liberal voices who demand that Trumps voters be understood and empathized with for their decision to support an authoritarian demagogue because they were scared and wanted to shake things up. In interviews and profiles since the November presidential election, Trumps voters have expressed how happy they are with his administration and how unfairly they feel they are being judged by liberals and the media.

As P.T. Barnum is said to have famously observed, a sucker is born every minute. Donald Trump, the clown king and ruler of a plutocratic kakistocracy, will make his supporters suffer while they smile and ask for more. Sadism as political strategy is the guiding principle of the modern Republican Party. I will continue to add up the entries on Trumps butchers bill. Ultimately, the American people need to be protected from his machinations. As for his supporters? Im afraid they deserve everything they receive, and more.

See original here:
First installment on the butcher's bill: Donald Trump's supporters will be made to pay - Salon

By Steve Holland | WASHINGTON

WASHINGTON President Donald Trump said on Thursday he wants to ensure the U.S. nuclear arsenal is at the "top of the pack," saying the United States has fallen behind in its weapons capacity.

In a Reuters interview, Trump also said China could solve the national security challenge posed by North Korea "very easily if they want to," ratcheting up pressure on Beijing to exert more influence to rein in Pyongyang's increasingly bellicose actions.

Trump also expressed support for the European Union as a governing body, saying "I'm totally in favor of it," and for the first time as president expressed a preference for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but said he would be satisfied with whatever makes the two sides happy.

Trump also predicted his efforts to pressure NATO allies to pay more for their own defense and ease the burden on the U.S. budget would reap dividends. "They owe a lot of money," he said.

In his first comments about the U.S. nuclear arsenal since taking office on Jan. 20, Trump was asked about a December tweet in which he said the United States must greatly strengthen and expand its nuclear capacity "until such time as the world comes to its senses regarding nukes."

Trump said in the interview he would like to see a world with no nuclear weapons but expressed concern that the United States has "fallen behind on nuclear weapon capacity."

I am the first one that would like to see ... nobody have nukes, but were never going to fall behind any country even if its a friendly country, were never going to fall behind on nuclear power.

"It would be wonderful, a dream would be that no country would have nukes, but if countries are going to have nukes, were going to be at the top of the pack," Trump said.

Russia has 7,000 warheads and the United States, 6,800, according to the Ploughshares Fund, an anti-nuclear group.

"Russia and the United States have far more weapons than is necessary to deter nuclear attack by the other or by another nuclear-armed country," said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the independent Arms Control Association non-profit group.

The new strategic arms limitation treaty, known as New START, between the United States and Russia requires that by February 5, 2018, both countries must limit their arsenals of strategic nuclear weapons to equal levels for 10 years.

The treaty permits both countries to have no more than 800 deployed and non-deployed land-based intercontinental and submarine-launched ballistic missile launchers and heavy bombers equipped to carry nuclear weapons, and contains equal limits on other nuclear weapons.

Analysts have questioned whether Trump wants to abrogate New START or would begin deploying other warheads.

In the interview, Trump called New START "a one-sided deal."

"Just another bad deal that the country made, whether it's START, whether it's the Iran deal ... We're going to start making good deals," he said.

"WE'RE VERY ANGRY"

The United States is in the midst of a $1 trillion, 30-year modernization of its aging ballistic missile submarines, bombers and land-based missiles.

Trump also complained that the Russian deployment of a ground-based cruise missile is in violation of a 1987 treaty that bans land-based American and Russian intermediate-range missiles.

"To me it's a big deal," said Trump, who has held out the possibility of warmer U.S. relations with Russia.

Asked if he would raise the issue with Putin, Trump said he would do so "if and when we meet." He said he had no meetings scheduled as of yet with Putin.

Speaking from behind his desk in the Oval Office, Trump expressed concern about North Korea's ballistic missile tests and said accelerating a missile defense system for U.S. allies Japan and South Korea was among many options available.

"There's talks of a lot more than that," Trump said, when asked about the missile defense system. "We'll see what happens. But it's a very dangerous situation, and China can end it very quickly in my opinion."

China has made clear that it opposes North Koreas nuclear and missile programs and has repeatedly called for denuclearization of the Korean peninsula and a return to negotiations between Pyongyang and world powers.

But efforts to change Pyongyang's behavior through sanctions have historically failed, largely because of China's fear that severe measures could trigger a collapse of the North Korean state and send refugees streaming across their border.

Trump's meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe earlier this month in Florida was interrupted by a ballistic missile launch by North Korea.

Trump did not completely rule out possibly meeting North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at some point in the future under certain circumstances but suggested it might be too late.

"It's very late. We're very angry at what he's done, and frankly this should have been taken care of during the Obama administration," he said.

According to Japanese news reports, the Japanese government plans to start debate over the deployment of a U.S. missile defense system known as the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, and the land-based Aegis Ashore missile defense system to improve its capability to counter North Korean ballistic missiles.

The strength of Trumps remarks in favor of the EU took some Brussels officials by surprise after his support for Britain's vote last summer to exit from the EU.

"I'm totally in favor of it," Trump said of the EU. "I think it's wonderful. If they're happy, I'm in favor of it."

Statements by him and others in his administration have suggested to Europeans that he sees little value in the Union as such, which Trump last month called a vehicle for Germany."

(Additional reporting by Jeff Mason, Roberta Rampton, Emily Stephenson, John Walcott, Matt Spetalnick, Arshad Mohammed and David Brunnstrom in Washington and Alastair Macdonald in Brussels; editing by Ross Colvin)

WASHINGTON U.S. President Donald Trump criticized the FBI on Friday for failing to stop leaks of national security information to the media and directed the agency to find those who pass on classified information.

BRANCHBURG, N.J./VIRGINIA BEACH, Va. U.S. Representative Leonard Lance, who has held more than 40 town hall-style meetings with constituents in his central New Jersey district, has never faced a crowd like he did on Wednesday.

NEW YORK New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio arrived to meet with federal prosecutors on Friday morning as part of their lengthy investigation into whether people involved in fundraising for his election campaign broke corruption laws, according to news reports.

See the original post:
Trump wants to make sure US nuclear arsenal at 'top of the pack' - Reuters

President Donald Trump likely wont be watching the Academy Awardson Sunday night because, duh.

But well let White House press secretary Sean Spicer share the official reason why:

I think Hollywood is known for being rather far to the left in its opinions, and Ive got to be honest with you, I think the president will be hosting the Governors Ball that night. Mrs. Trump looks forward to putting on a phenomenal event. And the first ladys put a lot of time into this event, in welcoming our nations governors to the capital, and I have a feeling thats where the president and first lady are going to be focused on Sunday night.

MARK RALSTON via Getty Images

The former reality star has fired up feuds with the likes of Meryl Streep (whos nominated) and has also gotten roasted at previous award shows, so he probably isnt feeling chummy with show business right about now. Plus,given the anti-administration yuks that will likely spill forth at the Oscars, perhaps Trump wants to spare his ego.

While he may not tune in, we have a sneaking suspicion that the commander-in-chief wont tune out what transpires on Oscar night. Got that, Twitter?

He apparently hasnt been such a fan of the ceremony anyway, tweeting in 2014 that it was amateur night and bullshit. In 2015, he issued this politicized critique:

The rest is here:
Here's Why Donald Trump Won't Be Watching The Oscars - Huffington Post