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Theresa May, Donald Trump, North Korea: Your Morning Briefing New York Times A week ago, the White House declared that ordering an American aircraft carrier into the Sea of Japan would send a powerful deterrent signal to North Korea. But the ship was actually sailing in the opposite direction to participate in joint exercises ... and more »

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Theresa May, Donald Trump, North Korea: Your Morning Briefing - New York Times

Democratic congressional candidate Jon Ossoff arrives to greet supporters at a campaign office on Saturday in Atlanta.

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On Friday evening, Karen Giorno, a former senior adviser on Donald Trumps presidential campaign, addressed a few dozen volunteers for Bob Gray, one of 18 candidates running for Congress in a special election this week in Georgias 6th District. The seat, which once belonged to Newt Gingrich, was supposed to be safely Republican. Former Rep. Tom Price, who stepped aside to become Trumps secretary of health and human services, won Novembers election by 23 points. Now, however, a Democrat, Jon Ossoff, is leading in all the polls. And theres at least a chance that he could clear 50 percent of the vote come Tuesday, which would mean that Ossoff would not have to face a runoff and would be going to Congress as the first Democrat to hold Georgias 6th since 1979.

Michelle Goldberg is a columnist for Slate and the author, most recently, of The Goddess Pose.

Graya businessman whos trying to position himself as the most loyal Trump supporter in the raceis fighting it out with three other Republican candidates in the hope of finishing a distant second to Ossoff and keeping the Democrat below 50 percent to force the runoff. Giorno had flown in to rally the troops. This is a really important election, she said. Its becoming a national spotlight, because its going to be a referendum on Donald Trump and his presidency.

Shes right. If Ossoffa 30-year-old former congressional aide and documentary producerwere to win, it would set off a political earthquake. Right now, though Trump is unpopular nationally, Republicans in Congress havent wanted to break with him, because they fear primary challenges more than general election defeats. If a first-time Democratic candidate could take Gingrichs old seat, that calculation would likely change and Trump would be seriously weakened, since at least some Republicans would have an incentive to turn on him to save themselves.

Democrats have poured money into the race; Ossoff has raised a staggering $8.3 million. The DCCC is targeting black votersabout 10 percent of the districts electorate in presidential raceswith an advertisement featuring Samuel L. Jackson. Remember what happened the last time people stayed home. We got stuck with Trump! he says, before nodding to his Bible-quoting Pulp Fiction character: We have to channel the great vengeance and furious anger we have for this administration into votes at the ballot box! On the ground, volunteersa great many of them suburban women who have never been politically active beforeare knocking on so many doors that even friendly voters complain about overkill.

The Georgia Republican Party is trying to boost turnout by appealing to the bases sadism; one mailer features a photograph of a sobbing man and the words, MAKE A LIBERAL CRY Trump himself appears a little worried. On Monday morning he tweeted: The super Liberal Democrat in the Georgia Congressioal [sic] race tomorrow wants to protect criminals, allow illegal immigration and raise taxes! His campaign sent out an emergency fundraising appeal: Theyre hoping to pull off a major upset to President Trump and YOUR Republican party tomorrow, but were fighting back and need your help.

If a 30-year-old former congressional aide and documentary producer were to win, it would set off a political earthquake.

But the reason Ossoff has a chance in the first place is that Trump is relatively unpopular in the district, where he beat Clinton by only 1.5 percent. The Georgia 6th is mostly made up of affluent Atlanta suburbs; according to Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz, it has the highest percentage of college graduates of any district in the state. Thats one of the reasons that Trump really underperformed relative to the normal Republican vote in that district, Abramowitz says. Clearly there are quite a few college-educated independents and even some Republicans who are really turned off by Trump. The district is far less Trump-friendly than Kansas 4th district, where Trump won by 27 points but where Democrats were still able to mount a surprisingly competitive special-election challenge that ultimately fell short earlier this month.

The chance of Ossoff winning outright on Tuesday is still slim. According to FiveThirtyEights survey average, hes currently polling at 46 percent. That puts him far ahead of any of the Republicans: Right now the leading GOP candidate, Karen Handel, is at 18 percent, followed by Gray at 13 percent. At this point, the likely scenario seems to be that the election proceeds to a runoff on June 20, which would give Republicans the opportunity to consolidate their voters. In that case Ossoff could still win; as FiveThirtyEights Nate Silver argues, you cant necessarily tell who will win a runoff just by adding up the margins of all a partys candidates. Even if Ossoff finishes in the low 40s, it will be hard to rule him out in the second round provided that he still finishes in first place by a comfortable margin, writes Silver.

Yet the Ossoff campaign believes that a Tuesday victory is at least possible. Theres a good chance that we can get to 50 percent plus one, Ossoffs campaign manager Keenan Pontoni told me. We have seen a number of internal polls, and weve seen the complete early vote data, and that information really demonstrates that were creeping up closely to 50 percent. What will get us over the top is having an expanded electorate. In other words, theyre counting on people who dont usually vote in special elections showing up for this one.

Thats not simply wishful thinking. Despite all the attention to outside forces converging on the Georgia 6th, whats driving Ossoffs campaign is an intense local mobilization. The campaign has more than 4,000 active volunteers; on Saturday alone, Pontoni says, 900 people knocked on 35,000 doors. Its a renewed spirit of civic engagement and political activism, Ossoff told me after a rally at his Marietta campaign office. Most of it is being led by women. Im taking my cues from them.

The role of local women in making the special election competitive cannot be overstated. Again and again, Ossoff volunteers told me similar stories. Many had never been politically active before. They didnt know what district they lived in or who their local representatives were. They kept their Democratic sympathies quiet, assuming that their neighbors wouldnt approve. Trumps election had shocked them out of their complacency. Stacy Efrat, a 38-year-old with three kids, said the husbands in her circle wonder where their wives went: All the sudden theyre married to different women, who are out every night, going to meetings, protesting, and who spend all day while their kids are at school calling their congressmen.

Before the presidential election, Jessica Ziegler, a 32-year-old mother of three, says she and her friends felt very safe and secure not being engaged in [politics] at all, because our lives were going just fine. They were consumed by work and family, and what extra energy they had went into the local schools. Ziegler serves in the PTA and as lead volunteer in her youngest childs preschool class. What she calls the catastrophic event of Trumps victory reshuffled those priorities.

For the first time, Ziegler and women like her feel that their families are endangered, both morally and physically, by an elections outcome. I cannot imagine my kids growing up in a less American country than I did, she told me. She worries about Trump plunging America into war with North Korea and about attacks on reproductive rights that could blight her two daughters futures. I absolutely dont want my boy growing up thinking that Donald Trump is a role model, either, she says. Since November, Ziegler has thrown herself into local politics, where she found she could make use of the organizational skills shed learned as a school volunteer. Now shes a precinct captain for the Ossoff campaign, driving around her neighborhood in her minivan to round up every vote. On Sunday night she sent me a text message to tell me about three last-minute rallies shed organized for the next day; the first one started at 7:30 a.m., so that commuting drivers would see them on their way to work.

Its not clear if the polls are measuring this passion; they might not be capturing women like Efrat whove never voted in a special election before and are now actively volunteering on behalf of a campaign. A special election is notoriously difficult to poll accurately, says Ossoff. The polls show us within striking distance and the early voting numbers show great intensity on the Democratic side. So its winnable on Tuesday. But if its not won on Tuesday, the campaign will retool for the runoff. Ossoff launched his campaign with a fundraising plea to Make Trump Furious. Whatever happens, Tuesday wont be his last chance to do that.

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Georgia's Special Election Has a Chance to Be a Devastating Blow to the Presidency of Donald Trump - Slate Magazine

Fifty percent! That's not bad! Particularly given how much negative press Trump gets, according to Trump.

I was intrigued about the Rasmussen result, so I did a bit of digging and also reached out to CNN polling czar Jennifer Agiesta for her take.

There are a few reasons to be skeptical about the Rasmussen result.

* Rasmussen used an automated voice (as opposed to a real, live person) to conduct their polls. They are, therefore, barred by law from contacting people on cell phones. People who only use cell phones tend to be younger and more diverse than those who have landlines. And younger, more diverse voters have heavily favored Democrats in recent elections.

There are other, even more technical and nerdy reasons why you should be somewhat skeptical of Rasmussen, but you get the idea. In an industry in which transparency is the name of the game, Rasmussen just doesn't show very much of how they do what they do. That's not to say what they do is wrong; it's only to say we have no way of knowing how closely they adhere to accepted polling standards.

What Rasmussen may be picking up -- and this tracks with Gallup's findings as well -- is that after hitting a low point in his job approval at the start of this month, Trump has been tracking upward. Rasmussen measured him at 42% approval on April 3 while Gallup had Trump's weekly average at 38% as of April 2. Both polls suggest gains for Trump since then; the difference is that Trump started off higher in Rasmussen than in Gallup.

The rise in Trump's approval numbers tracks closely with his decision to strike a Syrian air base that US officials say was the staging ground for a chemical attack by that country's government on its own people. That strike took place Thursday, April 6.

The larger point here: No one poll should be taken as the "truth" about where Trump -- or any other politician -- stands. Polls are, by their nature, snapshots in time. That's how we all -- and, yes, this means you, President Trump -- should be treating them.

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Is Donald Trump's approval rating really 50 percent? - CNN

He has claimed that ongoing IRS audits prevent him from doing so, even though such audits wouldn't restrict anyone from publishing their returns. And Trump is mandated to be audited during the rest of his time in office.

White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer on Monday reiterated Trump's stance.

"It's the same thing that was discussed during the campaign trail -- the president is under audit. It's a routine one that continues," Spicer said. "Nothing has changed."

Related: The president always gets audited (and the veep too)

But Trump's public statements about his returns have shifted subtly over the years.

At first, Trump was open about wanting to release his returns. He began citing the ongoing audit as a reason not to release them in early 2016.

Here's a selection of remarks Trump has made:

MAY 20, 2014:

More than a year before he announced his presidential campaign, Trump told an Irish television station that he would "absolutely" release his tax returns if he entered the race.

"If I decide to run for office, I'll produce my tax returns, absolutely," he said. "And I would love to do that."

FEBRUARY 25, 2015:

Trump told radio host Hugh Hewitt that he would "certainly show tax returns if it was necessary."

OCTOBER 4, 2015:

Trump said in an interview with ABC's George Stephanopoulos that he was considering releasing his tax returns.

"I'm thinking about maybe when we find out the true story on Hillary's emails," he said of Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.

JANUARY 24, 2016:

Trump told NBC's Chuck Todd that he had "very big returns."

Asked if he would release them publicly, Trump said, "we're working on that now."

"I have very big returns, as you know, and I have everything all approved and very beautiful and we'll be working that over in the next period of time, Chuck," Trump said. "Absolutely."

FEBRUARY 11, 2016:

Trump appeared again on Hewitt's radio program and said of his returns, "we'll get them out at some point, probably."

FEBRUARY 24, 2016:

Trump told CNN's Anderson Cooper that he has a "very complex system of taxes."

"We'll make a determination over the next couple of months," he said. "It's very complicated."

FEBRUARY 25, 2016:

Trump tweeted that he's already filed public financial disclosure forms that are "great." He said that tax returns "have 0 to do w/ someone's net worth."

The disclosure forms do give wide estimates of asset value. But tax returns would reveal much more. Even the top two pages of his 1040 and Schedule A, for example, would say how much taxable income he made, how much he paid in taxes, his charitable contributions and whether he paid tax to any foreign governments.

During a CNN-Telemundo debate later that day, Trump said he wanted to release his tax returns, but could not while he's under audit.

"I've had it for years. I get audited. And obviously if I'm being audited, I'm not going to release a return," he said. "As soon as the audit is done, I love it."

FEBRUARY 27, 2016:

Trump revisits the audit argument on Twitter.

"Tax experts throughout the media agree that no sane person would give their tax returns during an audit," he said. "After the audit, no problem!"

MAY 11, 2016:

Trump tells the Associated Press that his taxes are under "routine audit" and he will release them when the audit is done.

"I would release my tax returns when audit is complete, not after election!" he tweeted about the interview.

SEPTEMBER 27, 2016:

Trump says during the first presidential debate that his taxes will be released once an audit is finished.

"I don't mind releasing. I'm under a routine audit, and it will be released. As soon as the audit's finished, it will be released," he said.

OCTOBER 4, 2016:

Mike Pence says during a vice presidential debate with Democratic candidate Tim Kaine that Trump has not "broken his promise" about releasing tax returns.

"Look, Donald Trump has filed over 100 pages of financial disclosure, which is what the law requires," Pence said. He added that trump is "going to release his tax returns when the audit is over."

JANUARY 22, 2017:

White House senior adviser Kellyanne Conway said on ABC's "This Week" that "the White House response is that he's not going to release his tax returns."

She added: "We litigated this all through the election. People didn't care."

JANUARY 23, 2017:

Conway clarifies her comments with a tweet: "On taxes, answers (& repeated questions) are same from campaign: POTUS is under audit and will not release until that is completed."

APRIL 16, 2017:

A day after protestors called on Trump to release his tax returns, the president derided the demonstrators on Twitter.

"I did what was an almost an impossible thing to do for a Republican-easily won the Electoral College!" he tweeted. "Now Tax Returns are brought up again?"

APRIL 17, 2017:

Spicer, the White House press secretary, says Trump's tax returns are still under audit.

"It's the same thing that was discussed during the campaign trail, the president is under audit. It's a routine one that continues," he said.

Asked in a later exchange if we can assume Trump will never release his returns, Spicer said he would "get back to you on that."

--CNNMoney's Jeanne Sahadi contributed to this story.

CNNMoney (New York) First published April 17, 2017: 5:22 PM ET

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All the things Donald Trump has said about releasing his tax returns - CNNMoney

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President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump welcomed an estimated 21,000 guests for the 139th Easter Egg Roll at the White House Monday. But, while addressing the crowd from the Truman Balcony, Melania subtly nudged Donald, reminding him to put his hand over his heart for the National Anthema small moment that turned into a bigger discussion on social media. The couple's son Barron Trump, however, did not require any prompting from his mom.

(The U.S. Flag Code calls for anyone addressing the flag, either during the Pledge of Allegiance or the national anthem, to put their right hands over their hearts.)

Unfazed, Donald made a short speech about the state of nation before turning to the day's activities. "We're going to come out and join you, enjoy your company for a rolla great Easter Egg Roll. I don't know if we're going to be successful, but I know a lot of people, they're going to be successful," the President said. "I've seen those kids, and they're highly, highly competitive."

Donald also promised to "sign some cards" for the troops.

Then, it was Melania's turn to address the attendees.

"This is the first time that my husband and I hosting this wonderful tradition, and it's great that you are all with us today," Melania shared. "I hope you have a great time with many activities."

After thanking the military band, White House staff end Egg Roll volunteers for their help, she thanked guests for helping the First Family "renew" the tradition. "On behalf of the President and Barron," Melania, 46, said, "we wish you great fun and beautiful days coming ahead of us."

The First Lady later read from the children's book Party Animals. "I like it because it shows that we are all different," Melania said, "but we are all alike." White House press secretary Sean Spicer posed for a picture with Easter Bunny, a role he played during an Easter Egg Roll hosted by President George W. Bush; he read from the children's book How to Catch the Easter Bunny.

E! Online - Your source for entertainment news, celebrities, celeb news, and celebrity gossip. Check out the hottest fashion, photos, movies and TV shows!

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Melania Trump Nudges Donald Trump to Raise His Hand for the National Anthem - E! Online