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As the White House has continued to push a narrative of a sharp recovery after a history-making recession, the economic data in large part has not been cooperating.

Jobs numbers of late are showing progress but pointing to at best a gradual recovery. The sharp uptick in coronavirus cases appears to be have ebbed but not by enough to generate confidence to get activities anywhere close to normal again.

And perhaps most importantly, a persistent inability of Congress and the White House to agree on more rescue funding threatens to push those still reeling from virus-related impacts further down the ladder.

"Dreams of a V-shaped recovery are long gone," Beth Ann Bovino, U.S. chief economist at S&P Global, said in a note. "The economic cycle feels more like we are riding a wave fueled by COVID-19 with only quarantines, federal stimulus, and advances from the medical community keeping our personal health and economic recovery afloat."

Bovino estimated a 30%-35% chance of a "wipeout" that could see "this fragile recovery falling back into recession."

That runs counter to the message from President Donald Trump's economic team.

National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow has touted the potential of a V-shaped recovery no fewer than four times over the past month, either on CNBC or elsewhere. As recently as last week, he told CNN the "V-shaped recovery is in place."

Economists generally do see a sharp snapback in activity for the third quarter after Q2's stunning 32.9% drop in GDP as measured if the current pace kept up for four quarters.

Still, the ability to keep up a gain that could exceed 20% for the July through September period is being called into question.

"With virus fears on the rise, jobs being lost and incomes squeezed, the second phase of the recovery will be more challenging," wrote James Knightley, chief international economist at ING. "In the absence of a timely and substantial fiscal package we should be braced for the threat of weaker employment and spending numbers, which will provide a major test for financial market optimism on the 'V' shaped recovery."

To be sure, some of the high-frequency data has been looking better.

Jefferies tracks a variety of these markers, such as retail foot traffic, public transportation use and employee hours at small businesses, and found that activity has resumed to 60.5% of the normal pace as measured by 2019 data points, which is the highest level of the pandemic recovery.

Markets also continue to look through the present circumstances and are pricing in a return to strength in the U.S. economy.

"The resurgence in COVID-19 infections and the upturn in unemployment claims raises the question of our call for a V-shaped economic recovery. While the deterioration in progress against the pandemic is saddening, we remain convinced the recovery will not be materially altered," wrote Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.

"We never thought the V-shaped recovery would be characterized by straight lines and a lack of hiccups given the vast unknowns and forecasting complexity surrounding the virus. Rather, our outlook is based simply on the realities of math and the direction of travel," Shalett said.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell last week said the recovery is largely dependent on the virus.

However, economists also think that the political calculus and how that translates into more rescue funding also will be critical.

"Given our crazy politics, which are particularly crazy given the election, there is a nonzero probability they fall short," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said regarding the relief negotiations. "Depending on how short will determine whether the economy will gain some traction or slide into a depression."

Link:
Trump's dream of a 'V' recovery is hanging in the balance of stimulus talks - CNBC

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Before COVID-19 hit, Donald Trumps business empire was continuing to earn hundreds of millions of dollars. But the presidents recently filed personal financial disclosures show that much of that came from hotels and resorts, two of the industries hardest hit by the pandemic. We wont know the specifics of how COVID-19 has diminished Trumps wealth until next year (and even then, only if he is reelected and has to file another disclosure), but based on last years report, it could get quite ugly for the presidentright before he has hundreds of millions of loans due to private lenders.

Trump annually files a personal financial disclosure form that details the income he earned, the assets he owns, and the debt he owes. It is not as detailed as his tax returns, and it crucially leaves out key information for assessing the presidents financial statusfor example, how much money he spends. According to the most recent copies of the forms, filed Friday night, Trump earned at least $446 million in the 2019 calendar year through his businesses and investmentsa slight uptick from the previous year. But its not clear how much of that the president kept, and even when numbers appeared to be good for individual businesses in the presidents portfolio, all may not be as well in reality.

For instance, according to Trumps disclosure, his Turnberry golf resort in Scotland earned $25.6 million in revenue in 2019, up $5.2 million from 2018. But those figures dont include how much it costs to run the golf courseand it costs a lot. We know from corporate filings in the United Kingdom that in 2018, the golf course actually lost $13.1 millionfar more than even the 2019 increase in revenue. Unless Trump dramatically cut costs at Turnberry (well know later this fall when the British corporate filings are due), it seems unlikely the course was profitable.

At Trumps Mar-a-Lago resort, which he touts as the Winter White House, revenues slid by $3.7 million to $21.4 million for the year. No information is available on how much Trump spends to operate Mar-a-Lago, but its not a good sign for one of his marquee properties. Down the road at the Doral golf course he ownswhich he tried to steer an international summit to last fallrevenues climbed $2.4 million from 2018 to 2019, but profitability at the resort has slipped since Trump was elected.

Trumps other favorite vacation getaway, his golf club in Bedminster, New Jersey, also had revenues rise by about $2.5 million last year, but across many of his other golf courses, revenues seemed to just inch up, even as the economy as a whole was roaring. Trumps Jupiter golf course, in Palm Beach, Florida, where he frequently golfs while visiting Mar-a-Lago, saw an increase in revenues of just about $429,000.

One of the most prominent properties the president owns is a luxury hotel in downtown Washington, DC, which he opened shortly before Election Day in 2016 and quickly became a hangout for administration members, lobbyists, and foreign delegations hoping to make an impression on the president. Trump rents the building from the federal government and pays rent, partially based on how much profit he makesand has yet to pay above the basic amount, suggesting that even as its revenues inched up to $40.5 million (a $150,000 increase from 2018), the property is still not making much money for the president when all its expenses are added up. The Trump family announced they were planning to sell the property last fall, but the sale seems to have been put on hold.

To the degree that the Trump Organization appears to have been financially healthy in 2019, much of the business is built on Trumps resort and hotel business. Besides his golf clubs and hotels he owns, Trump manages hotels for others around the world. All told, revenues from resorts, hotels, or management fees accounted for $352 million, about 78 percent of all of Trumps revenues. The bad news, for Trump, is that in 2020, just weeks after the period covered in this financial disclosure, the COVID-19 pandemic steamrolled across the global economy, with the hotel and resort industries hit particularly hard. One industry group estimates American hotels have lost $46 billion in revenue since the pandemic started.

At one point, nearly all of Trumps resorts were closed, and he was forced to lay off as many as 1,500 employees. His Scottish golf courses rely heavily on wealthy American golfers, but with international travel out of the United States almost completely curtailedthe UK has maintained a two-week mandatory quarantine for travelers from the United Statesany progress reported by Trumps businesses in 2019 has likely been completely erased in 2020.

In that respect, the Trump Organization is no different than almost every other business around the world, but the presidentwho has retained full ownership of all of the properties, refusing to divest upon taking officehas some unique challenges. For one, he continues to owe a lot of money. The 2019 personal financial disclosure shows no substantive change in his listed debtshe still owes hundreds of millions to lenders on mortgages for some of his favorite properties. While Trumps overall level of debt is not unusually hightheNew York Times estimated his assets are worth about $1.35 billion compared to debt in the neighborhood of at least $470 millionseveral of his largest debts are coming due in the next few years, possibly during a second presidential term. Among others, Trump will need to repay Deutsche Bank about $125 million for mortgages on the Doral resort, and $170 million on the Washington, DC, hotel. If Trump doesnt have the cash to pay these debts, he could try to refinance the loansbut banks will look toward his recent revenues to determine his creditworthiness, numbers that will probably not be pretty after the damage from the pandemic is totaled up.

Read Trumps full personal financial disclosure below:

Read more here:
Donald Trump's Businesses Did Okay in 2019. But 2020 Might Be Awful for His Personal Wealth. - Mother Jones

President Donald Trumps early Saturday tweetstorm took an oddly aggressive position, as the nations cities continued to erupt in protest over the death of Minneapolis man George Floyd earlier this week while in police custody.

Late on Friday, Trump was still trying to deal with the fallout of his Thursday tweet that looting leads to shooting, which sparked more outrage and escalated passions. Trump tried to walk back its impact on Friday, saying that It was spoken as a fact, not as a statement. Its very simple, nobody should have any problem with this other than the haters, and those looking to cause trouble on social media. Honor the memory of George Floyd!

However, protests outside the White House on Friday night seemed to indicate that people were not buying that explanation. Trump praised the Secret Service for its handling of the protests, and alluded to the awful fate awaiting any protester who made it past the White House barriers, citing vicious dogs, among other defenses.

Related StoryJoe Biden Asks "A Nation Furious At Injustice" To Restrain From Violence In George Floyd Death Protests; Donald Trump Silent As Curfews Spread Across America

He also called out Washington, DC Mayor Muriel Bowser for not assisting the White House in quelling the protests, which he blamed today on ANTIFA and the Radical Left.

Well post more communications as they roll in. The tweetstorm so far:

See the rest here:
President Donald Trump Tweetstorm The Saturday Edition - Deadline

It has been one of the greatest love affairs in American politics.

Since joining Twitter more than a decade ago, Donald Trump has delivered 52,000 tweets or retweets and accumulated 80 million followers. He uses the platform to threaten war, hire and fire staff, goad perceived foes and stoke partisan divisions. Twitter, which did not exist 15 years ago, has become one of the most famous companies in the world, the new first draft of presidential history.

But now the relationship is on the rocks.

For the first time, Twitter this week added a factchecking tag to two of Trumps tweets when he made unsubstantiated claims of fraud in mail-in voting. The president struck back on Thursday with an executive order threatening social media companies with new free speech regulations.

Asked if he had considered deleting his account, Trump replied: If we had a fair press in this country, I would do that in a heartbeat. Theres nothing Id rather do than get rid of my whole Twitter account.

A day later, in another first, Twitter hid a tweet by Trump behind a warning accusing him of breaking its rules by glorifying violence in a message that said looters at protests in Minneapolis would be shot. The president lashed out again in naturally a tweet, complaining: Twitter is doing nothing about all of the lies & propaganda being put out by China or the Radical Left Democrat Party. They have targeted Republicans, Conservatives & the President of the United States.

Facebook did not remove Trumps same post from its site with its chief executive, Mark Zuckerberg, putting clear daylight between his approach, which exempts politicians from a third-party factchecking program, and that of his Twitter counterpart, Jack Dorsey. As for the president, whose election owed much to social media, he now appears to be biting the hand that feeds him.

I think the last thing Trump wants is to shut down Facebook, YouTube and Twitter, said Roger McNamee, author of Zucked: Waking Up to the Facebook Catastrophe. Hes completely dependent on them and, by the way, they on him. The symbiosis is complete.

Now, I think what Twitter did today relative to the looters and shooters tweet is actually very brave. Its also incredibly obvious and something they shouldve done years ago and something Facebook should do, because if you look at the public safety aspect of the terms of service, that tweet is an obvious violation and, coming from the president, it has enormous risk of causing public safety harm.

McNamee, a co-founder of the private equity firm Elevation Partners and an early investor in Facebook, Google and Amazon, added: The fact that Facebook left it up speaks volumes about the different approaches of the two companies because how big do you think Twitter is without Trump? Is it half its current size? Is it less than that? This is a very brave thing for them to do.

Trumps use of Twitter offers a real-time window on his consciousness at all hours of day and night. Some of his posts are vivid reactions to items he has seen on the Fox News network. Others hurl insults at political foes and the media or traffic in incendiary racism. In the past month they have reached a crescendo of abuse, demagoguery and conspiracy theories, including a baseless accusation of murder levelled at a TV host.

Charlie Sykes, a conservative author and broadcaster, said: His Twitter account has been central to his presidency and hes obviously obsessed with it. Thats what makes this so strange: if he were to shut down Twitter, he obviously would deprive himself of a platform. If he succeeds in having the law changed, it would backfire on him because it would then make the social media platforms liable for his lies and his slanders.

Like a much-hyped executive order in April that threatened to ban immigration, but turned out to have numerous exceptions, the bark of Thursdays executive order is likely to be worse than its bite.

It attacks legal protections that shield social media companies from liability for users content, but a change in the law would require an act of Congress. Observers detected a blatant attempt to deflect attention from Trumps handling of the coronavirus pandemic, which this week claimed its 100,000th life in America, and an outbreak of violence after the police killing of a black man in Minneapolis.

Sykes, founder and editor-at-large of the Bulwark website, added: To be attacking a private company because it factchecked him is a disturbing look, even for Trump. The willingness to use the full weight of federal government to go in and punish a private company for factchecking one of his tweets. Twitter did not censor his tweet. It answered his tweet with a factcheck. In other words, it answered speech with more speech, which is the way the first amendment is supposed to work.

Trump expressed anger last year after Facebook banned seven users including the conspiracy theorist Alex Jones, rightwing media stars Milo Yiannopoulos and Laura Loomer, and Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan, notorious for using antisemitic language. He and fellow conservatives have long claimed without evidence that Silicon Valley tech companies are biased against them.

Twitter first announced in early 2018 that it would not block world leaders or remove their controversial tweets, though it subsequently announced that it could apply warning labels and obscure the tweets of world leaders if they used their accounts to threaten or abuse others. Despite this weeks skirmishes, the prospect of the US president being banned still seems remote.

Sykes commented: I think thats unlikely to happen. Banning Trump allows him to play the victim card and say, Look, I am the president and they wont let me speak. So it makes him a martyr. Its probably better to factcheck him. On the other hand, thats going to be extremely difficult. Are they going to factcheck every one of his tweets?

Does that mean theyre going to be under tremendous pressure to factcheck everyone else? Theres a danger for Twitter that he will drag them down the rabbit hole, that he will make their factchecking of him into another massive distraction issue.

Trump has put Twitter front and centre in public life but he is not its most followed personality. To his probable chagrin, number one spot is held by Obama with 118 million, according to Brandwatch, ahead of singers Justin Bieber, Katy Perry, Rihanna, Taylor Swift, footballer Cristiano Ronaldo, singer Lady Gaga and TV personality Ellen DeGeneres. Then comes Trump in ninth place.

Rick Tyler, a political analyst, said: He needs Twitter because its his vehicle to communicate with millions of people who follow him. Im not sure Twitter needs him and, if it does need him, then its a flawed business model because Trump one day wont be with us. Hes an old man and so if Twitters business model depends on Donald Trump, its a very short-lived business model.

The presidents threat to terminate his love-hate relationship with social media rings somewhat hollow. Biographer Michael DAntonio describes him as a troll at heart who used the New York tabloids to similar effect before Twitter and Facebook came along. He said of the current feud: I think its about Twitter being his drug and Jack Dorsey threatening to limit his supply.

It has the effect of a drug on him, so the pleasure that he gets from tweeting and from the response to his tweet probably gives him a rush and I think even the thought of it being constrained is painful, probably physically painful in his own body.

Its also him encountering someone who can hold him responsible and, as he makes clear, hes never responsible for anything, and that is enraging. Its like the kid whos been let loose in a candy store and suddenly an adult says, Well, thats all done now, its time for you to leave, and he doesnt want to leave so hes having a tantrum.

Continue reading here:
Is Donald Trump's love-hate relationship with Twitter on the rocks? - The Guardian

President Donald Trump encouraged his supporters to rally at the White House, inviting a potentially dangerous mix of protesters after people angry about the death of an unarmed black man in Minnesota police custody skirmished with the Secret Service on Friday.

He threatened the unlimited power of the U.S. military to clamp down on demonstrations, tweeting from Air Force One as he traveled to Cape Canaveral, Florida, for the launch of a SpaceX spacecraft. The military is ready, willing and able to assist, Trump said earlier.

In a series of tweets early on Saturday, Trump also seemed to revel in the potential for violence outside the White House, warning that Fridays protesters would have been met by the most vicious dogs and most ominous weapons had they dared to breach the fence around the property.

He depicted Secret Services agents as eager to battle the demonstrators, and later issued an appeal to his supporters to assemble: Tonight, I understand, is MAGA NIGHT AT THE WHITE HOUSE???

Washington, D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser rebuked the president in her own series of tweets, calling him a scared man. Afraid/alone and saying she stood with people peacefully protesting the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis this week.

Those demonstrations were not altogether peaceful, though. The Secret Service said in a statement that it arrested six people and that multiple personnel from the agency were injured when protesters assaulted them with bricks, rocks, bottles, fireworks and other items.

Videos from Fridays demonstration showed protesters chasing journalists from the park and throwing objects at officers wearing riot gear, and Secret Service officers responding with pepper spray.

Contrary to Trumps assertion that Bowser wouldnt let the D.C. police get involved, the Secret Service said the citys police and U.S. Park Police were also on the scene of the protests.

Bowser called a press conference on Saturday to discuss the situation. I call upon our city and our nation to exercise great restraint, even while the president tries to divide us, she said.

Trump told reporters he had no idea if his boosters would assemble on Saturday night at the White House.

I heard that MAGA wanted to be there that a lot of MAGA was going to be there, Trump said as he departed the White House, using the acronym for Make America Great Again.

Washington on Friday entered Phase One of its reopening from coronavirus stay-at-home restrictions. Large gatherings of people are currently prohibited.

Trump also tweeted that ANTIFA and the Radical Left were stoking protests against Floyds death, a day after saying he understood the pain that demonstrators were feeling. Antifa, short for anti-fascist, is sometimes used to describe militant left-wing activists.

Attorney General William Barr made a brief televised statement to make similar comments, tying the protests to groups of outside radicals and agitators exploiting the situation.

It is a federal crime to cross state lines or to use interstate facilities to incite or participate in violent rioting. We will enforce these laws, Barr said. He took no questions.

Minnesota officials, including the states Democratic governor, echoed Trumps suggestion that organized agitators were exploiting anger about the death of Floyd, a 46-year-old unarmed black man.

The situation in Minneapolis is no longer in any way about the murder of George Floyd, Governor Tim Walz said. It is about attacking civil society, instilling fear and disrupting our great cities.

Video showed a white police officer in Minneapolis kneeling on Floyds neck to the point the arrested man could no longer breathe. The officer, Derek Chauvin, was arrested Friday and charged with third-degree murder and manslaughter.

In Washington, demonstrators gathered in a park across from the White House around dusk on Friday, briefly causing the compound to be locked down. It was just one of a string of protests around the country, from Atlanta to Oakland, California.

Trump said he watched every move of Fridays protests outside the White House, and couldnt have felt more safe.

Had protesters breached the complexs fence, they would have faced the most vicious dogs, and most ominous weapons, Trump said. Thats when people would have been really badly hurt, at least.

Bowser said in her briefing that Trumps reference to attack dogs was no subtle reminder to African-Americans of segregationists that let dogs out on women, children and innocent people in the South. She called the comments an attack on humanity.

Friday nights protests came on a day after Trump appeared to threaten violence against certain demonstrators, tweeting overnight that when the looting starts, the shooting starts.

The phrase echoed a remark made in 1967 by a white Miami police chief when announcing tougher policing policies for the Florida citys black neighborhoods. In a rare reversal, Trump later said his tweet wasnt intended as a threat, but merely meant to discourage looting that has historically coincided with violence.

Trump also said hed spoken with Floyds family and that he understood the hurt and pain of demonstrators.

We have peaceful protesters, and support the rights for peaceful protesters, Trump said Friday. We cant allow a situation like in Minneapolis to descend further into lawless anarchy and chaos.

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Originally posted here:
Trump Suggests 'MAGA' Fans Gather at White House, While Threatening to Clamp Down on Demonstrations With Military - TIME