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A Manhattan grand jury could decide whether to indict Donald J. Trump in the days ahead, potentially touching off a sequence of events that could include the unprecedented sight of a former president in handcuffs.

But much about what comes next remains unclear. Prosecutors have signaled that an indictment is likely, but it is not a certainty. Before Mr. Trump can be charged, the Manhattan district attorney, Alvin L. Bragg, must ask the grand jury that has been hearing evidence about the former president to vote on whether to charge him. A majority of jurors must agree to do so.

The timing of any potential indictment, arrest and arraignment is unknown, and likely to remain so after a vote is conducted.

The investigation, conducted by Mr. Braggs office, has been focused on Mr. Trumps involvement in the payment of hush money to a porn star during the final days of the 2016 presidential campaign.

Heres what we know and dont know about the course of the investigation and what might happen.

The special grand jury that has been hearing testimony meets three afternoons a week, on Mondays, Wednesdays and Thursdays. At least one more witness could be called before jurors are asked to vote, according to people familiar with the matter.

Once all the witnesses have testified, prosecutors must explain the criminal charges they are seeking to the jury of 23 Manhattan residents before asking them to vote. A simple majority is all that is required to hand up an indictment.

If Mr. Trump is indicted, prosecutors would most likely work with his legal team to arrange his surrender in Manhattan. Within several days of his indictment, Mr. Trump, who lives at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, would travel to the city and turn himself in at the district attorneys office in Lower Manhattan. Hours later, he would be arraigned in a courtroom in the same building.

Any indictment of Mr. Trump would almost certainly be sealed, and the charges would be kept secret from the public after the grand jurors vote. The unsealing of the indictment and a public announcement of the charges against him would coincide with his surrender and arraignment.

However, there is some chance that Mr. Trump does not surrender there have been differing reports on that possibility which could kick off a more complex scenario.

Mr. Trumps lawyers have met with prosecutors in hopes of warding off criminal charges, and while it is unlikely, there is a faint possibility that Mr. Bragg will opt not to seek an indictment (or that he will seek one and grand jurors will vote to reject it).

But prosecutors have broad discretion during grand jury proceedings and the defense has almost no role. Every available signal has suggested that an indictment is imminent.

While it is clear that Manhattan prosecutors have been investigating the role Mr. Trump played in a hush-money payment to the porn star, Stormy Daniels, the specific criminal charges prosecutors could seek are unknown and will probably remain so even after he is indicted.

People with knowledge of the matter have suggested the charges would stem from the falsification of business records that recorded reimbursements to Michael Cohen Mr. Trumps former lawyer and fixer and the prosecutions star witness as legal fees. Such a charge, combined with a second crime involving illegal campaign contributions, could rise to a low-level felony.

Some of the routine steps that follow any felony arrest in New York would apply to the former president as they would to anyone else: He would be photographed and fingerprinted, and read a standard Miranda warning offering him the right to remain silent.

But because of Mr. Trumps status as a former president and his round-the-clock Secret Service detail prosecutors are likely to make some accommodations. He could be held in an interview room instead of a cell; the investigators who process his arrest may forgo handcuffs.

Law enforcement agencies around New York have also had discussions about how to prepare for the prospect of protests, which Mr. Trump called for explicitly on his social media site, Truth Social, over the weekend. A protest in Manhattan on Monday evening was sparsely attended.

Because of the nature of the potential charges against Mr. Trump, the law does not allow prosecutors to seek to have him held on bail. And as a leading presidential candidate, he is far from a flight risk.

Mr. Trump will almost certainly be released shortly after he is arraigned.

Once Mr. Trump has been charged, the case against him will probablybe mired in protracted litigation. Should the matter eventually make it to trial, it could conceivably play out in the run-up to the 2024 presidential election with Mr. Trump, the defendant, in the thick of his campaign.

Chelsia Rose Marcius contributed reporting.

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How an Indictment and Arrest of Donald Trump Could Unfold - The New York Times

Evelyn Knapp walks past a flag featuring former President Donald Trump that supporters are flying near his Mar-a-Lago home on March 20, 2023, in Palm Beach, Florida. Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images

This story originally appeared in Here's the Deal, our weekly politics newsletter. For more politics coverage and analysis, sign up here.

Former President Donald Trump has predicted he will be arrested this week, on charges related to a hush money payment aimed at covering up an alleged affair. A Manhattan grand jury is expected to issue an indictment soon, according to multiple reports.

But that is just one in a small constellation of investigations circling him. Here's a look at the government probes into Trump.

There are four known government-run investigations into Trump or his business. Let's first look at them in terms of location and prosecutorial scale, from national to local.

Trump has repeatedly and vociferously denied wrongdoing in all of these cases. He has alleged prosecutors have open political bias against him, and that he is being targeted by left-leaning officials.

Now, a little about each one, in order of when we expect to hear about charging decisions or next steps.

What is this case about? Hush money and potential accounting and campaign finance violations. This surrounds a 2016 payment of $130,000 to Clifford. The grand jury is scrutinizing the money that was paid to gain her silence about an affair she said she had with Trump in 2006 and 2007. Trump's response to the case has varied. Trump has acknowledged he was aware of the payment, but he and his spokespeople contend he did not understand its full nature.

Who is the prosecutor? The Manhattan district attorney is Alvin Bragg. He was elected to that job last November.

What are possible charges?

Isn't there a statute of limitations involved here? Yes. The accounting fraud charge has a two-year statute of limitation as a misdemeanor and five years as a felony. BUT, New York law extends that timing if a defendant has lived for a significant time out of the state. As president, Trump lived and worked in the White House and his Florida home. If these charges appear, expect this to be a point of contention.

When might we hear? News of a possible indictment is expected any day now. The grand jury in the case will next meet Wednesday.

What is this case about? Whether Trump interfered with, including if he tried to overturn, the 2020 election results in Georgia. This case includes the January 2021 call from Trump to Georgia's Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, in which Trump repeatedly said he needed 11,000 more votes.

Why Fulton County? The county contains Atlanta, the state capital. It also is the most populous county in Georgia. In addition, it has a prosecutor who wanted to launch the case.

Who is the prosecutor? Fulton County's district attorney is Fani Willis. She took office in January 2021. Willis called a "special purpose grand jury" to review evidence and make recommendations in this case.

What are possible charges? There is a wide range of potential charges here, and some may not be clear yet. A member of the grand jury convened for this case told the Atlanta Journal Constitution that the group recommended multiple indictments.

They could include:

When might we hear? Soon. Willis said in January that decisions are "imminent." On Monday, Trump's attorneys filed a motion to keep the final grand jury report secret and remove the district attorney's office from the case. Some see that as indication that he too expects news from the DA soon.

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What is this case about? Whether Trump and others involved in the Trump Organization committed fraud by inflating values of some assets, including properties, to get loans and other business benefits.

This is not a criminal case. Instead, this is a civil lawsuit filed by the state attorney general. She does not have the ability to file criminal charges, though she has referred the case to the Manhattan district attorney for that possibility.

Who is the attorney general involved? New York's attorney general is Letitia James. She was first elected in 2018.

What are the possible consequences? Again, the New York attorney general's lawsuit is not a criminal case and thus there are no charges involved. But there are serious stakes for Trump and some family members.

When could we hear? This case is set to go to trial in October.

A view of former U.S. President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort. Photo by Ricardo Arduengo/Reuters

What is this case about? This is a set of two investigations connected to Trump, overseen by a single, independent prosecutor at the Department of Justice. The order establishing the special counsel lays out two areas:

Who is the prosecutor? The special counsel is Jack Smith, who formerly served as the chief prosecutor at the International Criminal Court in the Hague. Previous to that, he oversaw the public integrity unit at the DOJ.

What are the possible charges? The spectrum of charges is large and much is unknown about how the special counsel is proceeding. But we have some outside guidance.

First, the House Select Committee to Investigate January 6th Attack on the U.S. Capitol recommended four charges against Trump to the DOJ in its final report.

Multiple outlets report that the special counsel also is looking into the Save America PAC, through which Trump raised millions of dollars after the election with his false 2020 claims. Specific possible charges, based on previous cases about fraudulent PACs, include:

Regarding the classified documents, some possible charges are indicated in the FBI's search warrant of Mar-a-Lago:

Note: A separate special counsel is overseeing an investigation into possible mishandling of classified documents by President Joe Biden.

When could we hear? It is unclear. Special Counsel Smith, appointed in November, is overseeing a massive probe here. His appointment does not have an end date.

But the directive establishing his investigation also notes that Trump is a current candidate for president, leading to speculation that Smith may want to complete what he can before that election cycle moves too far, including before 2024 arrives.

CNN reported in December that he was moving "fast."

Let's recap:

The rest is here:
Trump faces 4 investigations. Heres where they stand - PBS NewsHour

This article is part of The D.C. Brief, TIMEs politics newsletter. Sign up here to get stories like this sent to your inbox.

President Joe Biden made his first trip to Ottawa as the U.S. leader. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced another closely-watched interest-rate hike. Congress heard from the CEO of TikTok as it considered banning the app as a matter of national security. And even the cast of Ted Lasso took a turn in the spotlight during a visit to the White House to discuss mental health stigmas.

But one person actually ran Washington this week, and that was Donald Trump, whose rumored looming indictment was the only thing animating the D.C. insiders. And for good reason.

If indicted, Trump would become the first and only ex-President to face real criminal charges. His booking, legal filings, even his arrival in court would take on the aura of a circus, replete with a felon-styled red carpet for arrivals. His showmanship already had D.C. and New York on edge, with barricades going up around potential choke points for protesters who were summoned via social media much the way they were on Jan. 6, 2021. Trump seemed to be gleefully choreographing the whole affair from his seaside retreat in Florida, firing off rhetorical missiles from Mar-a-Lago with a style reminiscent of his pre-Twitter-ban days.

Not since he left the White House has Trump had such a stranglehold over this citys paces and palpitations. After two-plus years of Bidens steady-as-she-goes rhythm, a lot of us had forgotten the anxiety-inducing need to have push-alerts set for Trump and his closest watchers. Policy by Tweet quickly disappeared when Biden and his lot moved into the White House. When this White House has major news to announce, it usually comes with a briefing and detailed fact sheet, given to reporters a few hours ahead of the release. Congress hasto this point in the new Republican-led Houseavoided a lot of cliffhangers; protracted haranguing on specifics is about as climatic as the Hill has offered. And Supreme Court justices leave very little to kremlinology as the arguments leave most observers pretty clued into how theyre leaning. Heck, even the Courts most consequential rulings seem to leak well before theyre actually issued.

In short, Washington has been spoiled by an overwhelming sense of normalcy of some measure for the last two years.

Which is what has made this week so jarring. The haunting vibrations returned, as we all are watching to see whatif anythingManhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg could do in court filings. Trumps self-predicted arrest on Tuesday came and passed, but that hasnt given the row of reporters standing outside a New York courthouse any break. As NBCs Garrett Haake observed dryly on his Instagram page, We live on this corner. His producer posted from the same perch with the caption: Day 8 of Indictment Watch.

Theres no clarity in the secretive process, but there is no reason for either partisan camp to think it is safe. After all, the fight over the law is secondary only to the fight over public opinion. And while the ex-President has a long list potential legal woesin Manhattan, in Georgia, even with the Department of Justice just east of the White Housethe main topic of discussion at D.C. gatherings this week was whether this case being the possible first bite of the Trump apple would hurt or help him politically.

Trump is out of power and perhaps soon under indictment. It doesnt stretch the imagination to think that any of Trumps predecessors, facing such a mounting pile of potential legal woes and history-making blackmarks, would be huddled with advisers looking to minimize the publicity and to dismantle the troubles methodically. Not Trump, who has fueled the bonfire for his fans around the country and the indigestion for his critics in Washington. The vast uncertainty accompanying Trump and his multiple legal defensive postures demands attention, of course, but Trump is also clearly relishing the messiness; its what made him a reality television star, helped him rise a crowded and credible field of candidates in 2016, and powered his presidency through a constant lashing of grievance, trolling, and flamethrowers.

This week proved that Washington remains enthralled by Trumps oversized power to dominate a news cycle. And it is providing a reminder to many of what the conversation in the nations capital, and nationally, would look like if he returned to power. And judging from Trumps talents to create a spectacle around himself and sustain it, there is unlikely to be a break in that return to razzle-dazzle any time soon.

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Write to Philip Elliott at philip.elliott@time.com.

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Donald Trump Snatches Back The Washington Microphone - TIME

Donald J. Trump claims he is ready for his perp walk.

Behind closed doors at Mar-a-Lago, the former president has told friends and associates that he welcomes the idea of being paraded by the authorities before a throng of reporters and news cameras. He has even mused openly about whether he should smile for the assembled media, and he has pondered how the public would react and is said to have described the potential spectacle as a fun experience.

No one is quite sure whether his remarks are bravado or genuine resignation about what lies ahead.

If he is truly looking forward to it, he might be disappointed.

There is no indication, even if Mr. Trump is charged, that the authorities would have him take part in that storied New York City law-enforcement tradition known by detectives and crime reporters alike walking the newly arrested past a cluster of journalists. If Mr. Trump is indicted and surrenders voluntarily, arrangements are likely to be made between the Secret Service and law enforcement toavoida media circus.

Another person who has spoken with Mr. Trump, who was not authorized to speak publicly, said the former president was less concerned with the particulars of where he would be seen than with being assured of the opportunity to show the public he is not slinking away in shame.

As he waits for a likely criminal indictment making him the first current or former American president to face criminal charges Mr. Trump has often appeared significantly disconnected from the severity of his potential legal woes, according to people who have spent time with him in recent days. He has been spotted zipping around his Palm Beach resort in his golf cart and on one recent evening acted as D.J. at a party with his personally curated Spotify playlists, which often include music from the Rolling Stones to The Phantom of the Opera.

When Mr. Trump has focused on the case one of four criminal investigations in Georgia, New York and Washington now facing the front-runner for the Republican Partys presidential nomination he has concentrated on projecting strength and avoiding any signals of shame over his circumstances, an approach that mirrors his handling of repeated political crises and his flair for creating dramatic, made-for-TV moments. Seeing Mr. Trump after a court appearance could also galvanize his supporters, whom Mr. Trump urged over the weekend to protest in the event of his arrest.

He wants to be defiant to show the world that if they can try to do this to him, they can do it to anyone, said one person who spoke to Mr. Trump over the weekend.

A Trump campaign spokesman did not respond to a request for comment.

Mr. Trump has been both invigorated and angered by the prospect of being arrested, according to those who have spoken with him. And he hasalso entertained a certain amount of magical thinking.

For decades, according to people who worked with him years ago at the Trump Organization, Mr. Trump who was first criminally investigated in the 1970s was plainly frightened of being arrested. He spent years cultivating officials who might have influence over investigations into him or his company.

He has discussed the prospect that his recent pressure campaign a series of personal, unproven and provocative attacks he has unleashed against investigators, Democrats and fellow Republicans might persuade Alvin L. Bragg, the Manhattan district attorney, to walk away from the case.

That notion, according to legal experts, is highly unlikely, but Mr. Trump has a long history of believing he can bend external events to his will, and has sometimes succeeded.

Mr. Bragg, who was a senior official in the New York attorney generals office that brought a bevy of lawsuits against Mr. Trumps administration, has publicly stated that his legal decisions would not be swayed by politics.

How Times reporters cover politics.We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.

Mr. Trump has a history of emerging from political scandals that would have ruined most traditional politicians.

Even before Mr. Trump was elected, in October 2016, The Washington Post made public an outtake of Mr. Trump doing an interview with Access Hollywood a decade earlier and boasting about grabbing womens genitals without their consent. As Republicans called for him to drop out that weekend, Mr. Trumps impulse was to go to the street, where dozens of his supporters had gathered, and immerse himself in the crowd.

And then years later in2021, Mr. Trump sulked about his political future inside Mar-a-Lago. He had just been impeached for a second time, after his supporters rioted at the Capitol in an attempt to overturn his election defeat. People who spent time with him in those first post-White House months described a startling melancholy in his tone and hints of self-reflection as he sighed about his advanced age and expanding waistband.

The Good Lords given me good health up to now but you never know, he told one person at the time.

But Mr. Trump slowly found relief in a new routine, playing 36 holes of golf a day and timing his arrival at dinner on the Mar-a-Lago terrace with nightly standing ovations from dues-paying members who were already seated. By June, Mr. Trump had again started hosting his signature campaign-style mega-rallies.

Two years later, Mr. Trump has not only defied the expectations of many who believed he would never again seek public office, but he has also emerged as the strong favorite to win his third consecutive Republican presidential nomination.

The experience has intensified Mr. Trumps confidence in his old playbook, and his aides view the pending indictment and the potential for more to come as an asset for the campaign as they use the investigations to increase fund-raising and watch as primary rivals walk a careful line between criticizing prosecutors and backing Mr. Trump.

Mr. Trump has again demonstrated his grip on Republican voters. But questions remain about whether his time-tested methods of galvanizing his supporters are worth the political costs he has paid with independent swing voters and moderate Republicans.

These voters have turned on Mr. Trump, as well as many of the candidates and causes he has backed, for three consecutive election cycles that have ended in disappointment for his party.

Mr. Trump, for now, appears content to follow his own formula for crisis communications, a method that eschews long-term planning for short-term gains. Mr. Trump has long emphasized the importance of winning the next headline at virtually any cost and with little regard for what happens next.

On Saturday morning, Mr. Trump set off a frenzied news cycle by announcing on social media that he would be arrested within three days. Mr. Trump then visited one of his nearby golf courses, leaving his team to clarify that he had no direct knowledge of the timing of an arrest.

By Saturday afternoon, Mr. Trump escaped the controversy by flying to the exact location of another past political humiliation: the BOK Center in Tulsa, Okla., where a sparse crowd attended his first pandemic-era rally on June 20, 2020.

This time, on Saturday, Mr. Trump was not standing apart from the crowd but rather walking among it, his dark blue suit and red tie contrasting with a crowd outfitted mostly in T-shirts, hoodies and sports jerseys to watch the N.C.A.A. Division I wrestling championships.

He chatted with wrestlers after their matches, met a few coaches and entertained a few brief chants in his honor a performance aimed at showing swagger and masking any concern about a pending arrest.

Hes entirely focused, one staff member remarked, on the wrestlers.

Jonathan Swan and Ben Fenwick contributed reporting.

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Trump Claims Hes Ready for Perp Walk if Indicted - The New York Times

TheManhattan grand jury investigating Donald Trumpover hush money payments planned to hear testimony on other matters Thursday, seemingly further delaying a vote on whether or not to indict the former president, according to a person familiar with the matter.

There was no immediate explanation for why the grand jury, which did not meet at all on Wednesday, would not take up the Trump matter during its scheduled Thursday session. It was also not clear when or if prosecutors might resume presenting evidence before the panel or when they might ask the group for a decision on bringing historic criminal charges.

The panel is an investigative grand jury, meaning it hears other cases beyond the one centered on hush money payments during the 2016 campaign that were meant to silence the claims of a porn actor who said she had a sexual encounter with Trump years earlier. The person who confirmed that the grand jury would be hearing other matters was not authorized to discuss it and spoke on condition of anonymity.

Grand jury investigations are shrouded in secrecy, with prosecutors prevented by law from sharing any details of what takes place behind closed doors. But these proceedings have captivated public attention on a minute-by-minute basis, each development magnified because the presumed target is a former president and because Trump himself stoked expectations of imminent action by stating without evidence last weekend that he expected to be arrested on Tuesday. That did not happen.

The limited snapshots of the investigation have largely come from witnesses and their attorneys, who dont share the same secrecy obligation as prosecutors.Michael Cohen, Trumps former lawyer and fixer and a key government witness in this case, has spoken publicly about his appearances, as has another recent witness,Robert Costello, an attorney who presented testimony aimed at undermining Cohens credibility.

But the district attorneys office, which is leading the investigation, has offered no public indication of its timing. In a letter sent Thursday to Republican lawmakerswho sought documents and testimony about the investigation, the offices general counsel, Leslie Dudek, wrote that Trump had last weekend created a false expectation on the timing of an arrest, and Dudek reiterated prosecutors obligation to preserve the secrecy of the investigation.

These confidentiality provisions exist to protect the interests of the various participants in the criminal process the defendant, the witnesses and members of the grand jury as well as the integrity of the grand jury proceeding itself, the letter said.

____

Tucker reported from Washington.

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The Donald Trump grand jury isnt looking at the Stormy Daniels hush money on Thursday, source says - Fortune