Mediaboss Marketing

One thing you should know before I even get started: I have never missed a Congressional generic ballot yet. No other polling company has published a generic ballot in September so this is the first out of the chute and the new Zogby Analytics matchup shows the Democrats leading by 12 points 42% to 30%. Now, in the full interests of truth, the Congressional generic is not the best barometric reading for an election outcome, but it is at least a useful trend to watch. So this is not a prediction but look at what we found.

The Democrats hold a double digit lead among both men (43%-29%) and women (40%-30%). They also lead 64% to 10% among 18-29 year olds and 44% to 28% among 30-49 year olds. The Republicans lead among older voters, however 41% to 31% among 50-64 year olds and 38% to 31% among those over 65. The Democratic congressional candidate does better among Democrats (87% to 3%) than the Republican congressional candidate does among Republicans (74% to 7%). The same is true among liberals who support the Democrat in their district (83% to 6%), while conservatives only back the Republican 61% to 15%.

But the real story here in this poll is to be found among both independents and moderates two groups that are separate and distinct. Self-described moderates choose Democrats by a wide margin 42% to 19%, with 6% selecting other and 34% undecided. That might not mean a hill of beans in November because there are so many gerrymandered safe districts that moderates dont mean much.

But independents are the truly interesting ones, only half of whom are moderates, with two in three of the remaining describing themselves as conservatives. In this new Zogby poll 20% say they will vote for the Democrat, 16% for the Republican, 15% say other and 49% are undecided. That certainly tells a story right there. First, we have no idea how many of these independents will actually turn out to vote. Second, the groups that the GOP normally count on are more likely to be undecided today for example, whites (27%), as opposed to African Americans (11%) and Hispanics (8%), and Protestants (24%). Even one in three Born Again/Evangelical voters is undecided.

District by district, the GOP is favored to hold on to the House of Representatives majority. But, at least for now, there is no sign of a wave in their favor, something that had started to take shape at this point in time in 2010.

Read the original here:
Democrats Lead Republicans 42%-30% in Congressional Generic

Democrats have a lot to worry about in the midterm electionsbut one of their sturdiest bulwarks against a GOP rout in the fall has been support among women. They have held significant leads over Republicans among women by a number of polling measures.

But the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News Pollhas some warning signs for Democrats who are counting on women to help them weather a tough political climate.

An important bellwether is the question of which party voters would prefer to control Congress, and it has long been the case that men prefer a Republican Congress and women favor a Democratic Congress.

But the poll conducted Sept. 3-7 found that womens Democratic preference had shrunk to a 47%-40% margin down from 51% -37% a month earlier. The swing was especially sharp among white women, who gave Democrats a 4 point edge in August; in the new poll, Republicans enjoyed 48%-40% advantage.

It is hard to assess what accounts for that shift but, if it proves a durable trend, the stakes are high. GOP pollster Bill McInturff said that maintaining support among women is critical for Democrats in the midterm elections, or else a difficult cycle becomes a really terrible cycle for Democrats.

The poll also found that womens feelings about the Democratic Party have soured, as 39% expressed positive feelings toward the party, down from 44% in June. And their support for Obama is also eroding especially on foreign policy, with only 33% approving of his handling of foreign policy compared with 46% a month ago.

Jeff Horwitt, a Democratic pollster who worked with Mr. McInturff to conduct the poll, said those findings invite comparison to the 2010 midterm elections, when Republicans won the House majority and exit polls showed the GOP winning a rare victory among women (49%-48%).

The results among women in this poll should be a cautionary tale for Democrats, Mr. Horwitt said. What we dont know is if this is a trend or a blip.

However, the poll also showed that voters had more confidence in Democrats to look out for the interests of women by 45% to 17% a 28-point margin, wider than on any other issue assessed by the poll.

In the midterm battle for control of the Senate, some of the most important trends are not measured by national polls but polls within the states where contested races are being held. In New Hampshire, appealing to women is crucial to the campaign of Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen to keep her Republican opponent Scott Brown at bay. The Granite State Poll in August found Ms. Shaheen was leading Mr. Brown by 53%-39% among women even as her overall advantage was measured to be only 46%-44%.

Read more here:
The Gender Gap: Warning Signs for Democrats

Tea Party Leader Lloyd Marcus Blasts MSM, Democrats and GOP Establishment
Tea Party Leader Lloyd Marcus Blasts MSM, Democrats and GOP Establishment.

By: Tea Party

See the original post here:
Tea Party Leader Lloyd Marcus Blasts MSM, Democrats and GOP Establishment - Video

2014 Campaign Roundtable: Democrats Tom Conroy, Barry Finegold and Deb Goldberg discuss casinos #39; imp
Tom Conroy, Barry Finegold and Deb Goldberg, the 2014 Democratic candidates for treasurer of Massachusetts, talk about their views on the potential impact of...

By: MassLive Staff

Link:
2014 Campaign Roundtable: Democrats Tom Conroy, Barry Finegold and Deb Goldberg discuss casinos' imp - Video

Democrats, Are Beginning To Play Their Dirty Games! MVI 3425
One of the Districts in Georgia that is a solid Democratic district is adding a Sunday to allow their Mega Churches to bus in Democrat voters. I have attache...

By: Gabor Zolna

Follow this link:
Democrats, Are Beginning To Play Their Dirty Games! MVI 3425 - Video