David Shuster w/RJ Eskow: A Warning for Democrats
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David Shuster w/RJ Eskow: A Warning for Democrats - Video
Damaged by government, UK Liberal Democrats remain upbeat
Battered by four years in Britain #39;s coalition government, the Liberal Democrats set out the dividing lines with their Conservative partners ahead of next year #39;s election while leaving open...
By: Alfonso Salazar
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Damaged by government, UK Liberal Democrats remain upbeat - Video
TIME Politics 2014 Election Democrats See Obamacare Silver Lining in 2014 Playbook From fierce opposition to a "fading issue"
A year ago, the health care reform law was an albatross around the Democrats collective neck. Its disastrous roll out dominated headlines. Republicans gleefully predicted they would build on their House majority and take back the Senate in the midterm elections thanks to the unpopularity of President Barack Obamas signature domestic achievement.
Republicans may well still pick up House seats and win the Senatebut if they do, it wont be because of Obamacare. The incredibly fading issue, as U.S. News and World Report recently called it, it has become background noise in an election dominated by parochial interests, as Politico put it. Indeed, some Democrats are going so far as to predict that Obamacare could end up a silver lining come Election Day.
The Affordable Care Act is now the second-most important issue for unmarried women, according to a new poll by Democracy Corps for the Womens Voices Women Vote Action Fund, a key demographic Democrats are hoping to turn out this November. Unmarried women vote reliably Democratic, but tend not to turn out in midterm elections. If Democrats can turn out that one group at the same levels they voted in 2012, forecasts indicate Democrats would keep the Senate and take back the House.
That kind of turnout is highly unlikely. But every little bit counts as Democrats try to fend off the kind of wave election that drowned them in 2010. That year, a genuine backlash against Obamacare helped Democrats lose the womens vote for the first time since Ronald Reagan, and the House with it. In most battleground Senate races, Democratic candidates are winning by double-digits with women, particularly unmarried women
The law is also popular with minorities, another demographic with which Republicans have struggled. Some 74% of minorities support the Affordable Care Act, according to the Democracy Corps poll. The health care law has become much more important as a reason why people are voting for Democrats, says Stan Greenberg, a co-founder of Democracy Corps. The threat of repeal appears to be giving unmarried women and minority voters a reason to vote.
Republicans seem to have felt the tide receding. In April, Obamacare was the subject of 54% all political TV ads; by July that number had fallen to 27%, according to a July report from nonpartisan analysts Kantar Media CMAG. Obamacare will not be the most important issue, GOP pollster Whit Ayres, co-wrote in an August memo outlining 57 alternate lines of attack for outside spending groups such as Crossroads GPS and the American Action Network.
Still, opponents still use the issue far more than supporters; overall this election cycle, anti-Obamacare groups have spent 15 times as much on ads than groups supporting the law, the Kantar Media CMAG found. Did Obamacare dominate the midterms as some Republicans had predicted? Definitely not, says Larry Sabato, head of the University of Virginias Center for Politics. But has it been used widely by GOP candidates for House and Senate in their TV ads and on the stump? A resounding yes. And that makes sense. Midterm elections are low-turnout battles between the two party bases. Any hot button issue that gets partisan voters to cast a ballot is used extensively. Obamacare still causes Republicans blood pressure to rise.
The Affordable Care Act almost surely remains a net negative for Democrats. It helped bake voters opinions into the general election cake, says Jennifer Duffy, who follows Senate races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. The early advertising effort also kept vulnerable Democratic incumbents on the defensive. This was particularly helpful in states in which Republicans had primaries.
Support for Obamacare remains in the red, with 51.1% opposing the measure and only 38.7% supporting it, according to a Real Clear Politics average of national polls. Which is why the handful of positive ads Democratic candidates have attempted to run on behalf of the lawmost notably in Arkansas and West Virginiahave been resoundingly mocked by Republicans.
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Democrats See Obamacare Silver Lining in 2014 Playbook
By Mark Murray
Democrats are getting ready to drop a big chunk of change in a Senate contest almost no one's been talking about.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is going to spend $1 million for advertising and ground game operations in South Dakota's Senate contest, NBC News confirms.
The cash infusion was first reported by Bloomberg News.
It's notable because Democrats had all but written off the race months ago.
A recent robo-poll (which doesn't meet NBC's methodological standards) showed the three-way race featuring former Gov. Mike Rounds (R), Rick Weiland (D), and former GOP Sen. Larry Pressler (I) to be very competitive.
The South Dakota Senate seat is currently held by retiring Sen. Tim Johnson (D), and Democrats winning the seat -- or convincing a victorious Pressler to caucus with them (he endorsed Barack Obama in 2012) -- would mean Republicans would have to win AN ADDITIONAL seat to win control of the Senate.
Those are a lot of "ifs," especially in a state where Obama got just 40% of the vote in 2012. But with Democrats now spending $1 million in South Dakota -- keep an eye on the race.
First published October 8 2014, 12:51 PM
Mark Murray is the Senior Political Editor at NBC News, where he covers politics for the network, writes and edits its popular First Read blog, and appears daily on MSNBC and Washington DCs NBC affiliate to discuss the latest political news.
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Democrats Are Getting Ready to Spend Big in SD Senate Race
In tight Senate races across the country, Democrats are frantically trying to win over the prized mix of voters dubbed the Obama coalition. They just don't want President Obama's help.
Unpopular in many states whose voters will determine which party controls the Senate, Obama has been relegated to the role of silent partner. He is asked to raise money and will do so Thursday in California and to stay on message but to keep out of the close races.
It's not an unusual demotion for second-term presidents, who are known to lose their electoral mojo by their sixth year. But in this case, the president on the sidelines wrote the playbook for modern campaigning, and one of his keys to success was cobbling together a coalition of voters including women, young people, blacks and Latinos.
The president's status is laid bare in his recent travel, mostly to true-blue territory. Obama spent time last week in his hometown of Chicago and rubbed elbows with top-dollar donors in New York and Connecticut on Tuesday. On Thursday, he'll hit up the Hollywood crowd for a fundraiser at Gwyneth Paltrow's home in Los Angeles before heading to San Francisco on Friday.
Less than a month from election day, he has yet to appear onstage with a Democrat for a fall campaign event. He has not stumped for voters in North Carolina's Senate race, although Obama in 2008 was the first Democrat win the state in 32 years. The president has not been to Colorado since July, another state he helped flip for Democrats. Even Iowa, where he began his road to the White House, has been off the calendar, not to mention Arkansas and Louisiana, two conservative states with closely contested campaigns.
"The irony is that a lot of these races, particularly in states like Arkansas, Louisiana, others, depend so much on African American turnout," said David Axelrod, the president's former senior advisor. "This is a place where the president could be very helpful. Those candidates are trying to figure out how to deploy him in some form or fashion, not necessarily in person. But they'll deploy his voice and image in a targeted way."
The White House says the president is happy to help Democrats however he can. The president and first lady have done their part with low-profile tactics that some strategists argue are more efficient and effective than large rallies. On African American radio and in mailers, Web videos and robocalls, Obama will close out the final weeks aiming to activate the universe of die-hard supporters who tend not to vote in midterm elections.
The president is also expected to step up travel to places where he is more welcome, particularly to such states as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Illinois, which all have key governor's races.
Some strategists say the president's predicament is not merely a result of his lower approval rating. The lineup of Senate races this election cycle was daunting even before he lost popularity. Of the 24 states Obama lost in 2012, nearly 80% have Senate contests.
Although White House aides knew this terrain would be difficult, they acknowledge a frustration and an itchiness to get out on the trail. There's a persistent nostalgia for the crowds and the pace of a campaign season, they say, and a belief it could be good for Democrats and the president if he were out of Washington more, working the crowds. But with world crises looming particularly the war against Islamic State militants and the Ebola outbreak a more practical approach has prevailed.
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Democrats use Obama campaign playbook while benching the president