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Former Democratic Party chairman Howard Dean spoke by video link to a forum on the party last year in Denver.

WHY HAVE DEMOCRATS struggled to defeat President Trumps most objectionable cabinet nominees? Because Hillary Clintons 3 million popular vote margin obscures this nettlesome fact: Outside California, Massachusetts, and New York, Donald Trump won by 4 million votes.

Across the map, political polarization and demographic sorting are shrinking the party. Since 2006, the Democrats have lost 10 percent of their seats in the Senate, 19 percent in the House, 20 percent in state legislatures, and 36 percent of governorships. In 2018 the Democrats must defend 9 seats in states Trump won. And in states controlled by Republicans, the GOP is legislating to weaken unions that support Democratic candidates.

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In much of America, a parody of Democrats prevails: Champions of big government. Practitioners of identity politics. Enablers of welfare cheats. Enemies of traditional values. Hand-wringers with no respect for our past or faith in our future.

However fraudulent, Trumps promise to make America great again addressed the displacement many Americans feel. True, this came with racial animus. But their longing and fears are real. Trump gave them a vision; the Democrats never found one.

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These voters made him our president. Yet only Clinton addressed their anxieties with realistic proposals. This disconnect captures the Democrats quandary.

Two Americas perceive different realities the Democrats coastal, urban, better-educated, and more diverse enclaves; the GOPs whiter, less-privileged, and more traditionalist landmass. Critical is a distrust of elites and Washington, D.C. as proponents of activist government, Democrats suffer from both.

The result is programitis an afflication suffered by Democrats who describe their agenda in discrete pieces, eschewing a larger vision. But a party without a narrative has overlearned its lesson.

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Transcending demographics, race, and culture is imperative. Here the overlap between Trump and Bernie Sanders instructs. However different, both men promised to help those displaced by economic change. Among these voters, government was not a poison pill. But in November, Barbara Boxer told me, [They] didnt hear us speaking to them.

To be heard, Democrats must invoke government to serve American exceptionalism: helping unleash the potential of every person wherever or whoever they are to lift themselves and their country. Only then do their means cohere in a vision.

In this narrative, government exists not to reorganize a free society, but to strengthen it. The ends are moral and pragmatic. Which child could become the next Bill Gates or Jonas Salk, or that teacher, mentor, businessperson, or parent who helps our community thrive not just the one we see, but the country we share? Every wasted life diminishes our economic and human capital, to everyones loss.

Democrats can repeal the forces of automation and globalization that beset struggling families no more than Trump can. But a responsive Democratic party can provide education and retraining for the new economy; strengthen public schools; diminish student debt; and make college free for those in need.

Universal health care prevents illness from ruining lives and draining our collective wealth. Rebuilding infrastructure roads, airports, internet access, energy grids creates jobs and strengthens our economy. Tax breaks? Former Democratic National Committe chairman Howard Dean suggests they go to businesses that invest in regions left behind.

This vision of national renewal cuts across age, ethnicity and class. Further, Dean believes, Trump is repelling young people who embrace inclusiveness, reproductive choice, and combating climate change. Last years election showed them that disengagement breeds disaster; now the party must become their vehicle.

Candor might help. The young know we are saddling them with debt; few think entitlements can survive. Yet Democrats have ignored massive deficits while using Social Security to frighten Mom and Pop.

Ducking hard facts may serve their short-term interests. But disingenuousness invites distrust among the young. Only responsible tax and budgetary policies, and measures to save entitlements from crisis or privatization, will address their and our reality.

Where should Democrats take this vision? Everywhere.

As DNC chair, in 2006, Dean recruited candidates and rebuilt the party nationwide. His 50 state strategy invested in races for Congress, state legislatures, and local office, ignoring critics who accused him of squandering resources.

The result? Democrats captured the House, the Senate, and a majority of governorships and state legislatures. Crucial, Dean relates, was refusing to cede territory or ignore loyal constituencies gaining seats in places like Kansas proved critical to success.

This means avoiding ideological litmus tests Montana is not Massachusetts. But Deans model gave Barack Obama the Democratic Congress that helped create his legacy. Triumphant, the party narrowed its focus to reelecting Obama. Now his legacy is at risk.

The party of national renewal must be a national party.

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Renewing the Democrats and America - The Boston Globe

In a recent article,Washington Post reporter David Weigel argues that the critical stance of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) towardPresident Trump is harmful to Democrats. Weigel says:

Trump feeds off mainstream Republican opposition. we should not stop remembering how he changed party politics. Trump smashed the mainstream consensus of political science that nominees need party elite support to succeed. Instead,he ran as a figure outside the normal party system, pulling in voters who did not consider themselves Republicans.

Weigel is certainly right that Trump won the nomination without GOP elite support while using anti-establishment rhetoric and taking some unorthodox stands. But there is little evidence that he won by mobilizing voters who did not consider themselves Republicans.

[The prospects of a quick Obamacare repeal are sinking fast]

There have been campaigns in both parties in which an outsider or underdog candidate won disproportionate support from independent voters in the primaries in a battle against an establishment favorite: Barack Obama and Bernie Sanders vs. Hillary Clinton, John McCain vs. George W. Bush, Bill Bradley vs. Al Gore, Gary Hart vs. Walter Mondale. All of the outsiders/underdogs lost except Obama, who did have significant elite support, albeit less, initially, than Clinton.

Trumps story is quite different. He won not chiefly by attracting new non-Republican voters but by appealing to existing GOP voters who received no clear signal as to who the best alternative was. Perhaps Trump would have won even if the Republican elite had coalesced around an alternative, but that was not what happened.

First, Trump did not win by luring independents into the primaries. The first chart below shows the proportions of the primary or caucus vote cast for Republicans in the 17 states that had exit polls in 2012 and 2016. (Source: exit polls archived on CNNs Election Central.) Although turnout grew from 2012 to 2016, the independent share of the GOP primary vote did not greatly increase. In a majority of states, it was lower in 2016 than in 2012. This should not be surprising, because in 2016 there was a Democratic nomination contest to attract some independents, while in 2012 all of the action was on the Republican side.

[Republicans used to fear Russians. Heres what they think now.]

More important, as the second chart based on the 26states with exit polls in 2016 shows, Trump won broadly similar levels of support from Republican andindependent voters in GOP primaries.

In fact, in a majority of states in which exit polls were conducted, Trump won more support from Republican identifiers than independents. The GOP candidate who won disproportionate support from independents in 2016 was Ohio Gov. John Kasich, not Trump. (Many states lacking exit polls held caucuses in which Trump fared poorly.)

[Senate Democrats are battling every Trump nomination. Heres how that can hobble Trumps policy agenda.]

Trump was not a party regular and didnt run as one.Yet his message appealed to many traditional Republicans.

In the general election, he won a very narrow victory based on consolidating support from 90percentof Republican voters, many of whom had not supported him in the primaries and had misgivings about him. That being the case, the claim that it is bad news for Democrats or those worried about Trumps actions if McCain (or other prominent Republicans) are visible critics of the president is not supported.

David Karol is an associate professor of government and politics at the University of Maryland at College Park.

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No, Republican opposition to Trump won't hurt Democrats - Washington Post

Having had their electoral lunch unexpectedly eaten in November, Democrats across the nation are in more disarray than Bob Dylans hair, with factions riding off in different directions. There are all manner of sub-sets and niche gripes, as you would expect in an outfit as big as the Democrat Party. But the main demarcation organizes around a split between the full-goose bozo Sandersista ideologues and the lets-just-win-and-keep-power branch that occasionally makes limited concessions to reality. A recent example of this in Florida is the noises made by some ambitious Democrats, with the backing of some party activists, that they will offer primary opposition to incumbent Democrat U.S. Senator Bill Nelson in 2018.

This one takes a little probing to understand. After all, Bill Nelson is the only Democrat to hold a statewide office in Florida. Purple Florida is a toss-up state. But the governor, the entire state cabinet, and the other U.S. Senator are all Republicans. The bland and inoffensive Nelson has maneuvered this environment well. He has held elected office in Florida since 1978, when he won a seat in the U.S. House from the Orlando area. After 12 years in the House and a half dozen as Floridas Insurance Commissioner, Nelson won an open seat in the U.S. Senate in 2000 when Connie Mack retired. Nelson won reelection to the seat with 60 percent of the vote in 2006 and in 2012 with 55 percent of the vote, though in neither cycle against a really first-rate Republican.

Nelson is often described in the press, and by voters who follow these things, as a moderate. But this label is more on the basis of style than voting record. Nelson is mild-mannered, not a flamethrower or ideological loudmouth. He has a good-ole-boy drawl and he doesnt wear Che Guevara sweatshirts on the Senate Floor. But a quick check with those ideological rating agencies that score voting records shows that in most of his many years in the Senate, Nelson has had a more liberal voting record that the average Democrat Senator. For example, in the National Journals ranking of Senate votes in 2013, Nelson has a more liberal voting record than either Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders. The American Conservative Union gives Nelsons voting record a lifetime conservative score of 28.4, while Republican Florida Senator Marco Rubios lifetime conservative score is 97.2. Some moderate. Drawl or no, Nelson has been a reliable vote for the left for a long time.

Loyal leftist or no, Nelson has gotten a lot of votes from moderate Republicans and independents. And these folks will make up a bigger fraction of the election in off-year 2018 than they would in a presidential year. So what gives? The Democrats have 23 Senate seats to defend in 2018 (not to mention those of the independent Bernie Sanders and Maines junior senator Angus King), the Republicans only 10. So why give the push to a proven winner with statewide name recognition who has always been a reliable vote for the Democrats agenda?

In order to answer this I pestered some party activists and consultants, who talked on condition that I not use their names. What I learned was there is indeed a feeling among some Florida Democrats that Nelson would be vulnerable in 2018 against his likely opponent (likely for now), current Florida Governor Rick Scott, whose final term expires in 2018. Nelson, one summed it up, just doesnt look fresh he doesnt appeal to young Democrats.

Sounds like judging a politician by standards more applicable to fruit or pastry. But perhaps it makes sense. Nelson will be 76 in 2018, and would be 80 when the 2018 Senate term expires. Hardly in the first bloom of youth. But Senators in their eighties are not uncommon. John McCain is 80, and appears as ornery and disputatious as he was when he was 60. When one sees Nelson on the tube or in person, he does not appear like a man who will soon be ordering a walker and an ear-trumpet. And while Scott is a decade younger than Nelson, the Fountain of Youth contingent might consider him also somewhat less than daisy fresh, as much of a Mustache Pete as Nelson.

Recent political history favors outsiders, so there is time for someone in this category to pop up and take the Republican senatorial nomination. But if the Rs put up Scott, the Democrats may well be overestimating Scotts political power. Scotts record as governor holds appeal for conservatives, but hes a weak campaigner, tentative and inarticulate on the stump. And his electoral record is less than impressive. Scott was a successful businessman and political rookie when he narrowly beat Florida Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink for the governors office in 2010. In 2014 Scott won re-election to the governors job by beating Charlie Crist (yes, that Charlie Crist) by one point. Scott currently doesnt poll as well as Nelson does. Were not talking a political powerhouse here.

Democrats are impressed by how much campaign cash Scott would be able to raise for the 2018 race. But they may be overestimating the importance of this. If youre not the political flavor of the month, even if you have a solid record as a former Florida governor, money may avail you little. I call the jurys attention to Jeb! Bushs operatically unsuccessful presidential campaign in 2016, when he collected and spent an amount equal to roughly half the national debt and got nothing for it.

A more important factor may be how popular Donald Trump is in the fall of 2018. A popular Trump would raise the proposed of all Rs, and Scott was one of Trumps early supporters.

The ambitious Democrats saying they might take on Nelson include Nova Southeastern University law professor Tim Canova, who, with Bernie Sanders endorsement, ran against South Florida Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz in the 2016 primary and lost. Former U.S. Senate candidate Pam Keith and Orlando State Senator Randolph Bracy also say they have been urged to run by others and are considering.

Democrat would-be challengers natter on about the next generation of leadership. Florida Republicans find comfort in the prospect that if a proven Democrat walks the plank in favor of a challenger who is barely known outside of his (her) zip code, or even gets beat up in a primary battle, the next generation of leadership in the U.S. Senate will likely be Republican times two.

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Loyal Democrat Bill Nelson to be given the push in Florida? - American Spectator

Feb. 20, 2017, 11:44 a.m.

Democratic National Committee chair candidate Rep. Keith Ellisonis trying to build on his support in California by rallying other Democrats in Western states.

Tina Podlodowski, chair of the Washington State Democratic Party, will formally announce on Monday she's backing Elllison, who is from Minnesota.

Not only is he committed to competing in every county, providing the resources we need, and focusing on turning out the vote, he has a proven track record of doing each of those things in Minnesota," she said.

With less than a week until Democrats gather in Atlanta to choose their next national party chairman, leading candidates are angling for an edge in the campaign.

Also on board is Alexis Tameron, the Democratic chair in Arizona, a traditionally Republican state that has long been on the partys wish list as demographics there change.

The race will be decided by only 447 members of the Democratic National Committee, but it could have long-term consequences. Whoever wins will be in charge of rebuilding the party while President Trump is in the White House.

Ellison is backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders and is viewed as the more progressive candidate in the race, whileTom Perez has garnered some significant establishment support. The former Labor secretary under President Obama is backed by former Vice President Joe Biden.

Although the AFL-CIO endorsed Ellison, several affiliates of the union are backing Perez.The latest is the the International Brotherhood of Boilermakers, Iron Ship Builders, Blacksmiths, Forgers and Helpers.

Perez has also been endorsed by Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti.

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After picking up California support, Rep. Keith Ellison gets more ... - Los Angeles Times

A bloc of right-leaning groups are organizing events around the country to help Neil Gorsuch get confirmed, organizers said. | Getty

Conservatives are aggressively ramping up their campaign to confirm Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court this week, using a rare congressional recess to needle vulnerable Senate Democrats into supporting President Donald Trumps high court nominee.

A bloc of right-leaning groups are organizing events around the country to help Gorsuch get confirmed, organizers said. The Judicial Crisis Network has arranged events aimed squarely at vulnerable Senate Democrats up for reelection in 2018 in red and purple states: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Dakota, Indiana, Montana, Michigan, Florida, Missouri and West Virginia.

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Theres an intense focus with those senators back home, said Gary Marx, a former executive director at both the Judicial Crisis Network and Faith and Freedom Coalition who is helping organize the pro-Gorsuch campaign. Were not going to stand by and let that radical left wing element smear [Gorsuch].

Senators from those states will be the key to Gorsuchs confirmation vote. There are 52 Republican senators, so Gorsuch needs to win at least eight Democratic votes to clear a filibuster. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is eyeing a confirmation vote in early April. If Gorsuch cannot receive 60 votes, Senate Republicans say they may change the rules of the Senate to ease his confirmation.

Some Democrats like Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin will likely prove unmovable, but that isnt stopping Republicans from trying to gain political advantage by attacking her opposition to Gorsuch. Gov. Scott Walker has called it hypocrisy for Baldwin to oppose Gorsuch so early in the process; he will give a Wednesday afternoon press conference at the state Capitol in Madison in support of Gorsuch. Baldwin has dared Walker to run against her next year.

On Wednesday Indiana Attorney General Curtis Hill as well as West Virginia Attorney General and potential Senate candidate Patrick Morrisey will speak in support of Gorsuch in their respective state capitols, as will Colorado Attorney General Cynthia Coffman on Thursday. Rep. Lou Barletta (R-Pa.), a close Trump ally, will lead a Wednesday press conference on the Supreme Court nomination in Harrisburg and former Sen. Jim Talent (R-Mo.) will speak on Thursday in St. Louis.

The effort seeks to capitalize on how Gorsuch is binding together a Republican Party otherwise divided on policy issues and Trumps presidency. Though congressional Republicans are returning home to organized protesters opposing Trumps agenda and their vows to repeal Obamacare, there is almost no internal opposition to Gorsuch.

The Judicial Crisis Network is spending at least $10 million targeting Senate Democrats running for reelection in Trump states over Gorsuch's nomination. The anti-abortion Susan B. Anthony List will hold events outside the home offices of Indiana Sen. Joe Donnelly, North Dakota Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, Montana Sen. Jon Tester and Florida Sen. Bill Nelson this week.

"According to exit polls more than one fifth of voters had the court in mind when they went to the ballot box in November. Those voters overwhelmingly supported President Trump," said Mallory Quigley, a spokeswoman for SBA List. "Any senator who attempts to block this highly qualified nominee will face political consequences."

Concerned Veterans of America is planning direct mail and digital ad campaigns in the 10 targeted states. Tea Party Patriots is organizing activist calls and visits to red state Democrats' home offices.

The activity is significant because the Presidents Day recess may be one of the last chances for conservatives to try and rattle red-state Democrats before Gorsuchs vote. The only other time off scheduled for the Senate right now before the two-week April recess is a brief break around Easter.

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Court fight follows Democrats home - POLITICO - Politico