Should Democrats Brace for Bad Surprises?
Should Democrats Brace for Bad Surprises? Oct. 14 (Bloomberg) - Potomac Research Group Chief Political Strategist Greg Valliere discusses the upcoming midterm elections. He speaks on Bottom...
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Should Democrats Brace for Bad Surprises? - Video
Democrats hold slight edge in ad wars as election nears, report says
Democrats hold slight edge in ad wars as election nears, report says.
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Democrats hold slight edge in ad wars as election nears, report says - Video
WASHINGTON Democrats high hopes of mitigating House losses in a rough election year have been dashed by reality.
The question now is not whether Republicans hold the House thats a given. Rather, its how many seats could the GOP add to its majority on Election Day? And how close could it get to its post-World War II high of 246 in Harry S. Trumans administration?
Three weeks to Nov. 4, the House outlook remains bright for the GOP as national Democrats bail on once-promising opportunities in Virginia and Colorado, canceling television advertising to shift money to efforts to save vulnerable incumbents in Democrat-leaning states such as California and Illinois. Democrats also are transferring some of the cash to races where they stand a better chance.
Republican-leaning outside groups such as American Crossroads and American Action Network have pumped in millions of dollars targeting Democratic lawmakers.
Democrats cut $2.8 million in spending in northern Virginia, where John Foust faces state Delegate Barbara Comstock in a seat that Republican Frank Wolf has held for 34 years. The party also scaled back its spending in the Denver suburbs by $1.4 million despite its high expectations that former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff could upend three-term Republican Rep. Mike Coffman in a district with a growing Hispanic population.
Democrats have raced to rescue freshman Rep. Ami Bera in the Sacramento, Calif., suburbs as he tries to fend off a challenge from former Republican Rep. Doug Ose, and shore up first-term Rep. Bill Enyart in his southwest Illinois race against state Rep. Mike Bost. Illinois Gov. Pat Quinns struggle in his re-election bid is making life tough for Enyart and another freshman, Democratic Rep. Brad Schneider.
This is a challenging climate, but were not looking at 2010, insisted Rep. Steve Israel, D-N.Y., chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Every Democratic incumbent is either winning or tied and we have solid opportunities to win in Republican-held districts across the country.
Republicans hold a 234-201 edge in the House, counting Eric Cantors onetime Richmond, Va.-area seat which the GOP is expected to win and two vacant Democratic seats, one in New Jersey, the other in North Carolina.
The Republican rout of 2010, marked by tea-party anger toward Obama and the health-care law, cost Democrats 63 seats. Those gains make the universe of competitive races much smaller this election around two dozen.
Democrats have legitimate shots at defeating Republicans Lee Terry in Nebraska and Steve Southerland in Florida while capturing open seats in California, Iowa and Arkansas, according to Republicans and Democrats closely following the campaigns. But two-term Republican Rep. Michael Grimm is still considered a favorite in New York despite his 20-count indictment on federal tax-evasion charges.
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Democrats hopes for U.S. House gains fading fast
As the midterm election nears, Democrats are hanging on to a slim edge in the expensive television ad war for control of the U.S. Senate, according to a new study that says overall ad spending in the races is approaching the $1-billion mark.
Driven by a flood of spending by outside groups, more than 728,000 ads have been shown in Senate races, and an additional 700,000 have aired on behalf of candidates running for governor, the analysis released Tuesday by the Wesleyan Media Project says.
Overall spending on House, Senate and governor campaigns is already more than $917 million. By election day, broadcast stations will have aired more than 2 million political commercials a total thats unlikely to surprise voters in competitive states like Iowa and North Carolina, where the barrage of ads has been unrelenting for months.
In spite of an influx of spending on behalf of Republican candidates, more ads favoring Democrats aired Sept. 26 to Oct. 9 in 10 of the 15 top-spending Senate races, the analysis shows. Thats largely because Republicans are relying more heavily on outside groups to buy the commercials, rather than the candidates themselves, who are entitled to the lowest rates offered by television stations in the last 60 days before an election.
Republicans are not getting as much bang for their buck as Democrats, Michael Franz, the projects co-director, said in the report. He said, though, that the strategy may pay off, because research shows that ads by outside groups may be more effective at swaying voters.
The study confirms the increasing dominance of "super PACs" and other outside groups that accept unlimited contributions. Forty percent of the Senate ads are paid for by outside groups, up from 32% in 2102. The biggest spending group, at $3.8 million, was Crossroads GPS, a conservative nonprofit that doesnt disclose its donors; more than a quarter of ads in that two-week cycle were paid for by so-called dark money groups, the report found.
Many Republican ad buyers are writing checks for another round of bashing the Affordable Care Act, with the volume of ads criticizing the law up by nearly half in House and Senate races in that two-week period. While Democratic themes vary from state to state, GOP-leaning commercials across the country stick closely to themes of Obamacare, deficits and jobs.
If it seems to voters that many of the airwave campaigns are drowning in negativity, the report confirms it. In the Arkansas Senate race, about 69% of ads were negative, the report found, the highest percentage in the country.
On Twitter: @JTanfani
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Democrats hold slight edge in ad wars as election nears, report says
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