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Washington (CNN) -- The number making Mike Podhorzer anxious these days is 15.
That's the lead Democrats have over Republicans among working class voters in the final days of the 2014 midterm elections, according to his polling at the AFL-CIO, the nation's largest labor federation. That might seem good for Democrats, but in modern times, the party always wins voters making $50,000 or less.
For Podhorzer, the AFL-CIO's political director and one of the Democratic party's top thinkers on voter turnout, it's the spread that matters.
"Democratic victories are powered by the votes of the people who are more financially stressed," Podhorzer said in an interview with CNN at the labor federation's Washington offices, just up the street from the White House. "That's been the case going back to the New Deal. When working class people turn out and vote Democratic, that more than compensates for the advantage that Republicans have among upper income voters."
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In other words, with GOP dependably winning upper-income Americans, it's up to Democrats to run up the numbers with downscale voters, who made up about 40% of the electorate in the last election.
When Democrats clobber Republicans nationally among working class voters as they did by 22 points in 2012 they win. When the margin is tighter it was only an 11-point win for Democrats in 2010 they lose.
The 55-40 lead Democrats are clinging to among people making under $50,000 is wider than the 50-39 lead they had earlier this summer, making this year's outcome harder to predict. Podhorzer said it does explain why Democrats are still in the hunt heading into next Tuesday, suggesting that next week's election won't resemble the GOP tidal wave of 2010.
But it still makes him nervous.
Read more from the original source:
The magic number for Democrats