Republicans are on the cusp of taking control of the Senate in Tuesdays elections, with Democrats now dependent on their ability to navigate an increasingly narrow path to maintain their majority by the slimmest of margins, according to strategists,politicians and a Washington Post analysis of the contested campaigns.
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In a campaign year marked by unending negativity and voter disgust toward Washington, strategists in both camps agree that Republicans are almost certain to pick up five of the six seats they need to regain control. They have many opportunities to grab an additional seat and, if things break decisively in their direction, could easily claim the majority. Democrats hopes of holding on largely depend on whether they can take one or two seats currently in Republican hands.
Nevertheless, there is a good chance the final result wont be known on election night. Runoff elections are expected in Louisiana and possibly in Georgia, which would mean that those races would not be resolved for weeks. If the race in Alaska is tight, it could take days to count all of the ballots from remote villages. And if independent Greg Orman wins in Kansas, it remains to be seen whether he would caucus with the Democrats or the Republicans.
Gubernatorial races are, if anything, more dramatic and less predictable than those for the Senate. Rarely have as many gubernatorial races been as close in the final days as they are this year, with several Republican and Democratic incumbents in danger of losing. The House campaigns, however, hold little suspense, with Republicans expected to gain between eight and 15 seats.
Post reporters deployed in a dozen states through Election Day described voters as weary and often disgusted with the tone of many campaigns and the money spent on the negative ads that have been running for months but still engaged in the final outcome.
I hate to turn on the TV, said Don Batt, 62, attending a GOP event in Iowa. Its burning me out. In Louisiana, the scene of some nasty politics over the years, 91-year-old Leah Chase, who holds court in the kitchen of Dooky Chases in the Treme neighborhood of New Orleans, said, Ive never seen it this way before, this negative, darling. This has gone past the limit.
Republican voters expressed deep dissatisfaction with President Obama, which appeared to be the partys most important motivating factor. Eighteen trillion dollars in debt is enough, said Chad Bettes, 40, who lives in the Kansas City suburbs. And Obama and [Senate Majority Leader Harry] Reid just keep putting our country further in debt.
Democrats sought to make a distinction between their assessments of Obama and their views on their states senators. Im disappointed in the president, to tell the truth, said Tom Moriarty, 78, of Claremont, N.H. But I like Jeanne. Shes done a lot for the state, he said of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D).
Across the most contested states, Democrats and Republicans spent the weekend attempting to rally their supporters and deploying thousands of volunteer canvassers to make sure the loyalists cast ballots and to persuade the few undecided voters left after months of television ads, debates, direct-mail appeals and face-to-face prodding.
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Republicans appear set to take control of Senate, but hope remains for Democrats