Democrats search for an elusive silver lining in the House
After every battle,you have winners, you have losers, and you have the losers who try very hard to find asilver lining.
In the 2014 election, Republicans claimed victory, Democrats lost the Senate majority andthe Democrats in charge of trying to 300 a midtermcycle where they didn't have much to work withare trying to find a bit of treasure in all the debris.
As House Democratic campaign chairman Steve Israel (N.Y.)told the Hill, it turns out that all the House races that have been called since Election Day have been Democratic victories. Thatdoessound like a silver lining ... if you ignore the context of those wins. All of the races featured Democratic incumbents, and many of themwere expected to have easy paths to re-election.
Last Friday, Rep. John Delaney (D-Md.) declared victory in Maryland's 6th district. Cook Political Report said it was a race Democrats were expected to easily win. Delaney was ahead by less than 2,000 votes when his opponent conceded. In New York's 25th district, meanwhile, Rep. Louise Slaughter(D-N.Y.)barely won. The race was also expected to be an easy win. In California's 24th district, Rep. Lois Capps (D-Calif.) had a narrow victory in a race ... well, you get the idea.
If anything, these hard-to-call wins reinforce the storyline that Democrats are trying to re-imagine. Because of the inclement environment Democrats faced this year, victories that should have been announced immediately en masse needed tobe doled out one-by-one after a careful vote count.
Other House victories, made long after the narrative of a Republican mass-smushing had solidified, were in races that had been considered toss-ups all along. However, when you look at these wins along with the rest of the toss-ups, the Democrats' post-election success rate of 100 percent looks less stunning.
Out of the 22 House races rated toss-ups by Cook Political Report, Democrats have won seven of them. Two races -- Arizona's 2nd district and California's 7th -- remain unresolved and very close. One that Democrats were expected to win easily -- Rep. Jim Costa's (D-Calif.) seat -- is still too close to call. He is in the lead, but only by about 100 votes.
Republicans also won three seats that Democrats were expected to win narrowly. So that kind of undercuts the Democrats' toss-up winning percentage.
As for the GOP, it hasn't lost a non-toss-up. Two House races in Louisiana that Republicans were expected to easily win are headed to a runoff. One of the races might sound vaguely familiar -- former governor Edwin Edwards (D) is running -- but Republicans are expected to win both. The GOPcandidates in both races also have big fundraising advantages.
All of this said, it is true that this late accumulation of wins by House Democrats makes theirtrack record looka lotbetter than it did on election night. Despite the close margins in some races that looked like sure-wins, Democrats mostly won where they were supposed to in House races, and the party could keep its losses in the low-teens. With all those toss-up races -- and the tendency for toss-ups to all fall in one direction -- Democrats were facing losses potentially bigger than they had already bracedthemselves for. When that didn't happen, they were entitled to at least stop holding their breathin fear, even if they weren't allowed a victory dance.
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Democrats search for an elusive silver lining in the House