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Two months ahead of the midterm elections, Democrats hold a clear advantage over Republicans in congressional vote support, with antipathy toward President Trump fueling Democratic enthusiasm, even among those in the party who stayed home four years ago, a new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds.

The survey also points to broad unrest and frustration with the political system generally. More than 6 in 10 Americans say Trump and the Republican Party are out of touch with most people in the country. While Democrats fare better, a narrower 51 percent majority also judged them out of touch.

Registered voters say they favor the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate in their district by 52 percent to 38 percent. That is a marked increase from the four-point edge in an April Post-ABC poll but similar to the 12-point advantage Democrats enjoyed in January.

Because of the overall makeup of congressional districts, analysts have long said that Democrats would need a clear advantage on this generic ballot question, and in the national popular vote for the House, if they hope to flip the 23 seats needed to take control. The Post-ABC poll puts Democrats in a stronger position today than some other recent surveys, which showed them with an edge of about eight points on this measure.

[Read full poll results | How the poll was conducted ]

Self-identified Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are slightly more likely than Republicans and Republican-leaning independents to say they are absolutely certain to vote, by 80 percent to 74 percent.

Four years ago, when Republicans made gains in the midterm elections, the GOP enjoyed a 10-point advantage on this question in Post-ABC surveys that fall, 71 percent to 61 percent. The latest survey also asked whether people had voted in 2014, and among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who say they did not, 63 percent say they are absolutely certain to vote in November.

The past three midterm elections 2006, 2010 and 2014 produced substantial losses for the party that held the White House. In 2006, Republicans lost control of the House, but they regained it four years later. In 2014, they captured control of the Senate. Trumps victory in 2016 gave them full control of the executive and legislative branches.

Presidential approval has become a strong indicator of which party voters will support in midterm elections. More than 8 in 10 voters who disapprove of a presidents performance have backed opposition party candidates in recent midterm elections.

In the Post-ABC poll, more than 8 in 10 voters who approve of Trump support Republicans, while more than 8 in 10 of Trump disapprovers support Democrats. Given Trumps current ratings, this puts Republicans at a clear disadvantage heading toward November.

Through most of his presidency, Trumps approval ratings have been generally stable. His current average in surveys polling random samples of registered voters since mid-August is about 42 percent, which includes the results from the Post-ABC poll. Republicans know they will be exceedingly vulnerable in November if the president is not able to improve his standing over the next two months.

Ironically, the GOPs weak position comes even as 58 percent of Americans say the economy is excellent or good, tying ratings from January as the most positive marks in 17 years. The fact that many Republicans are worried about whether they can hold the House during a time of positive economic assessments underscores how much Trumps unpopularity has undermined the party greatest asset as fall campaigning begins.

The 38 percent minority of voters who rate the economy as not so good or poor favor Democrats over Republicans at 70 to 20 percent, a 50-point margin. But Republicans hold only a seven-point advantage with the majority of voters who view the economy positively, 49 to 42 percent.

Trump is a key factor in the asymmetry. Nearly half of voters who are upbeat about the economy still disapprove of the presidents job performance. Among this group, Democrats lead Republicans by a lopsided 74-point margin in congressional vote preferences, 83 percent to 9 percent.

When asked whether they would rather have Democrats control Congress as a check on Trump or a Republican-controlled Congress to support Trumps agenda, 60 percent of voters say they prefer having Democrats in control. In July 2017, that figure was 52 percent, at a time when Trumps job ratings were almost identical to today.

Meanwhile, 59 percent of voters say it is extremely or very important for them to support a candidate who shares their opinion of Trump, a figure that has grown seven points since April. Sixty-nine percent of Democrats and 65 percent of Republicans say they are seeking candidates with similar views of the president, suggesting that Trump is a motivator for both his supporters and his opponents.

The gender gap in views of Trump continues to be a key factor looking ahead to the fall campaign, with the Post-ABC poll finding 66 percent of female registered voters disapproving of Trump, including 59 percent who disapprove strongly. Among men, 52 percent disapprove, 45 percent strongly.

Vote preferences show a similar divide, with men basically split in support for Democratic or Republican House candidates, but women favoring Democrats by 58 percent to 33 percent, a 25-point margin. Women are also nine points more likely than men to say its important for congressional candidates to share their views on Trump.

Americans sense high stakes for the November elections, which could boost turnout from a half-century low point in 2014. Nearly two-thirds of registered voters say it is more important to vote now than in past midterms. Democratic-leaning voters are more likely than Republican-leaning voters to say that voting this fall is more important than in previous midterm years, by 75 percent to 57 percent.

A Democratic takeover of the House would break unified Republican control of the federal government and give lawmakers substantial power to launch investigations of the Trump administration on a range of fronts.

Many Democrats have avoided talking about their intentions on whether to pursue impeachment proceedings that could remove Trump from office, while some Republicans, including Trumps personal attorney Rudolph W. Giuliani, have warned that Democrats would try to impeach the president.

The Post-ABC poll finds that 72 percent of adults think the Democrats would seek to impeach the president if they were in power in the House, including 79 percent of Republicans and 70 percent of Democrats. However, the country is closely divided on the question of whether Congress should begin such proceedings 49 percent are in favor and 46 percent opposed. The gap between the support for impeachment proceedings and the wider perception that Democrats would undertake them could be a liability for Democratic candidates in November.

Both parties have sought to take advantage on the issue of immigration, with Democrats hoping to exploit Trumps now-rescinded policy of separating parents and children at the border, while Republicans are casting Democrats as weak on immigration and favoring open borders that have led to increased gang crime.

The Post-ABC poll finds a 56 percent majority of adults overall think Trump is too harsh in dealing with illegal immigration, while about 3 in 10 think hes handled it about right and 1 in 10 say he is not tough enough. Asked how Democrats would govern if they won control of Congress, 47 percent think they would handle illegal immigration about right, but 43 percent think they would not be tough enough and only 4 percent believe they would be too harsh.

Trade also looms over the fall campaign, with U.S. agriculture and other industries expecting to take an economic hit from escalating trade disputes with China and other countries. The Post-ABC poll finds that 41 percent of the public supports the tariffs Trump placed on some goods imported to the United States, while 50 percent oppose them.

On the broader question of who is or is not in touch with the American people, the perception of the president and the GOP has changed little since the early days of Trumps presidency, with 63 percent saying each are out of touch. At the same time, 51 percent say the Democrats are out of touch with most people; in April 2017, it was 67 percent who thought that was the case.

This Post-ABC poll was conducted Aug. 26-29 among a national random sample of 1,003 adults including 879 registered voters. The overall results have an error margin of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, while the sample of registered voters has an error margin of plus or minus four points.

Emily Guskin contributed to this report.

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WASHINGTON It would start within minutes of special counsel Robert Mueller being fired a torrent of activity ricocheting through the halls of Congress and over television airwaves, including nearly a thousand protests being prepped from the Virgin Islands to Alaska.

Democrats have drafted a wide-ranging contingency plan should Mueller be fired or President Donald Trump take other steps to quash the Russia investigation, like firing Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein or pardoning key witnesses.

Of top concern in the first 24 hours of such a move would be preventing Muellers documents from being destroyed and his team disbanded, according to interviews with nearly a dozen lawmakers, congressional aides, Democratic operatives and attorneys involved in the planning.

Almost immediately, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer would consult with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, while Democrats would demand a floor vote on a bill retroactively protecting Mueller and protecting his materials. In both the Senate and House, rank-and-file Democrats would contact a list of sympathetic Republicans who have signaled privately that theyd be willing to act should Trump pull the trigger.

"Weve had a lot of conversations about how exactly and who and when and where," Sen. Chris Coons, a Delaware Democrat who sits on the Judiciary Committee, told NBC News. "There have been several moments when it seemed imminent."

And in cities across the country, rallies would be hastily scheduled for 5 p.m., if Mueller is fired before 2 p.m. on any given day. If hes fired in the late afternoon or evening, the protests would be set for noon the following day.

The Democratic group MoveOn.org has been organizing 933 such rallies, with locations picked out and sponsors enlisted to handle logistics. The list includes rallies in big cities like Los Angeles, along with protests in more remote areas, such as the federal buildings in Bismarck, North Dakota, and Hilo, Hawaii.

Its unclear how many people would actually turn out, but more than 350,000 people have RSVP'd online to attend. The campaign director for MoveOn, David Sievers, said the group expects that the number of protests will grow and that far more would sign up to attend once news broke of Trumps actions.

Any success in protecting Mueller would depend heavily on a sudden change of heart by Republicans and their leaders, who have largely defended Trump and thus far refused to allow a full Senate vote on legislation to protect the investigation.

Still, Democrats are hoping that a Mueller firing would be considered so egregious that even Trump's fellow Republicans would be pushed past a tipping point.

Coons predicted that "within minutes" of a Mueller firing, dozens of Republicans would either voice opposition publicly or phone the president or his chief of staff to register their objection privately. But he acknowledged that many Republicans have been coy, refusing to say even behind closed doors what actions theyd be willing to take.

Documents have already been drawn up for a number of contingencies, including a "Saturday Night Massacre" scenario in which Trump systematically fires top Justice Department officials who refuse to fire Mueller until one of them agrees to do so.

The concern has taken on a fresh urgency in recent days as the investigation has tightened around Trump.

On Tuesday, former Trump personal attorney Michael Cohen pleaded guilty to eight counts, including two involving hush-money payments to women that Cohen said were made at the direction of a candidate, referring to Trump. In a breathtaking string of events, within minutes Trumps former campaign chair Paul Manafort was found guilty in another federal court on eight counts of tax evasion and bank fraud, creating fresh concerns for the president that Manafort might cooperate with the special counsels investigation.

Warned Schumer, hours later: He better not talk about pardons for Michael Cohen and Paul Manafort, tonight or any time in the future."

Trump, appearing late Tuesday at a rally in West Virginia, didnt mention potential pardons. Yet in an interview on Monday, the president had told Reuters that hes totally allowed to be involved in the investigation.

I could run it if I want," Trump said.

Democrats have also revisited their contingency plans in recent days amid signs the president feels emboldened both to punish those involved in the investigation and to influence it directly.

Last week, after revoking former CIA Director John Brennans security clearance and threatening to do the same to other current and former intelligence officials, Trump said that he felt it "had to be done" because "these people led" the Russia probe.

It was the latest sign that even the most senior Republican leaders can neither restrain the president nor predict what lines he will or wont cross. After all, House Speaker Paul Ryan had dismissed Trumps earlier threat to terminate Brennans security clearance as mere "trolling," as Rep. Adam Schiff, the House Intelligence Committees top Democrat, pointed out this week on Twitter.

Other senior figures in the investigation have been fired or forced out since Trump took office, including former Acting Attorney General Sally Yates, former FBI Director Jim Comey and former Deputy FBI Director Andrew McCabe.

After a Mueller or Rosenstein firing, Democrats would take to the floors of the Senate and House to call for obstruction of justice hearings and a special congressional committee to pick up the investigation, similar to the Senate Watergate Committee.

Democratic political groups would demand that the Senate be shut down until theres a resolution, denying all requests for unanimous consent. Some would call for impeachment proceedings against the president, while others would stop just short, officials involved in the planning said.

To speed up the response, congressional aides said language has been drafted for letters that House Democratic leaders would send to committee chairmen demanding hearings; to inspectors general demanding investigations; and to White House Counsel Don McGahn and the Justice Department demanding information about their communications before the firing.

Mueller himself might be called to testify quickly before Congress. There have been early discussions about whether, if the investigation were shut down and Democrats win a majority in the House in November, they could subpoena testimony already given to the grand jury in the Russia investigation. At a minimum, newly empowered Democrats would call up those who have previously testified and demand they tell Congress what they told the grand jury.

Planning for such emergency Mueller-firing scenarios began more than a year ago, shortly after Attorney General Jeff Sessions recused himself from the Russia inquiry and then appointed a special counsel. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosis team started working on a playbook with Schumers team, along with top Democrats on the Judiciary and Oversight panels in Congress.

Meanwhile, a coalition of mostly liberal advocacy groups banded together to hire the Democratic polling firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner starting in the summer of 2017 to research how the American people felt about the integrity of the Russia investigation. Jeremy Rosner, a partner at the polling firm, said Americans found Mueller to be credible because he was a lifelong Republican who served in the administrations of both parties.

"People were determined to protect the investigation, let Mueller do his job," Rosner said. Still, the polling right away identified that the issue was fluid and that new events could quickly change the perception, underscoring the need for a concerted messaging strategy to shape public opinion.

A "Friday group" of Democrats involved in key committees continues to meet weekly to discuss the Russia investigation, while another weekly meeting takes place among a coalition of outside advocacy groups such as MoveOn, Public Citizen, Indivisible, Common Cause and People for the American Way. Liberal legal organizations such as the American Constitution Society are also involved in drafting legal strategies that could be deployed if needed, individuals involved in the effort said. The American Constitution Society didnt respond to requests for comment.

Over the last year, the level of concern that Trump might actually kill the investigation has ebbed and flowed, punctuated by his efforts to discredit Mueller on Twitter, his calls for Sessions to stop the investigation and his insistence echoed by the White House that he has the power to fire the special counsel himself. Although some legal experts have questioned that, they do not question that one way or another Trump, through his power to fire the Justice Department officials supervising Mueller, could get rid of the special counsel.

There have been false alarms before.

A scare in April, on Friday the 13th, had Democratic groups and lawmakers on the verge of putting their plan into action. Trump, sensing he was losing control over the investigation, had been going hard after Rosenstein, especially after the special counsel handed off part of the investigation dealing with former Trump personal attorney Michael Cohen to a different team of prosecutors in the Manhattan U.S. attorneys office.

So when Rosenstein headed to the White House for a meeting with Trump, speculation about his imminent dismissal reached fever pitch in Washington.

"The rumors were sounding very specific. They were sounding really imminent," said Elizabeth Beavers of the group Indivisible, part of the coalition organizing the response plan.

Activists across the country whod agreed to organize rallies started advertising to remind people where to show up if needed. Indivisible hosted an emergency Facebook Live video chat to lay out the plan and solicit more phone numbers for potential protesters.

And in Congress, Democrats huddled in their offices long after the sun went down, anticipating the news that never came.

"That was a very late night," said Coons, the Delaware senator.

Different Democrats have laid out different red lines for what actions by Trump would trigger a full-blown crisis response. In December, Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia, the top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, said Trump would be breaching a red line if he removed Mueller from his job, pardoned key witnesses or shut down the investigation. MoveOn has added replacing Rosenstein or repealing the special counsel regulations to the list, but notes that firing Sessions who remains recused from the Russia probe would "be one step short of the break glass moment."

The most likely legislative vehicle for trying to protect Mueller after the fact would be a compromise bill co-sponsored by Coons and Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., along with GOP Sens. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Thom Tillis of North Carolina. That bill would put in statute that the special counsel could challenge his firing in U.S. District Court, and would require his personnel, documents and materials to be preserved in the meantime.

Although the bill already passed the Senate Judiciary Committee with bipartisan support, McConnell has said it wont get a vote on the Senate floor, arguing theres no need because the president wont really fire Mueller.

But the bill specifically states that its retroactive meaning it could be passed after Mueller was fired and still protect him. Democrats are counting on the fact that the public uproar after a special counsel ouster would be enough to change McConnells mind and allow a vote.

Originally posted here:
In case of Mueller firing, break glass: Democrats prep an ...

Democrats are in a strong position for the midterms, according to the latest Fox News poll.

Several findings point to the potential for a blue map in November:

- President Trumps job rating remains underwater.

- Republicans alone say the economy is in positive shape.

- The GOP tax law is less popular (40 percent favorable) than Obamacare (51 percent favorable).

- The Republican Party is less popular (39 percent favorable) than the Democratic Party (50 percent favorable).

- Optimism about life for the next generation of Americans is down eight points from last year.

- There is greater enthusiasm to vote in the midterms among out-of-power Democrats.

CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL POLL RESULTS

Meanwhile, the Trump/Russia probe isnt going away. Approval of Special Counsel Robert Mueller stands at 59 percent, up 11 points since July, and 40 percent expect the investigation will find Trump committed criminal or impeachable offenses, up 5 points. Tuesday afternoon, a jury found former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort guilty of tax and bank fraud in the first trial to come out of Muellers probe and, around that same time, Trumps former personal attorney Michael Cohen pleaded guilty to campaign-finance violations and other charges.

The national registered voter poll was conducted Sunday through Tuesday.

The survey shows if the election were today, 49 percent of voters would back the Democratic candidate in their House district and 38 percent the Republican. Thats an 11-point edge. Democrats were up by 8 points last month (48-40 percent) and 9 points in June (48-39 percent). Given that Democrats vote is stacked in urban districts, experts estimate they need to carry the generic ballot test by about 10 percentage points to take over the House.

With Election Day just over two months away, more 2016 Hillary Clinton voters are extremely interested in the midterms than Trump voters (58 vs. 48 percent). They are also more enthusiastic about casting a ballot (51 vs. 37 percent) and more certain they will vote (76 vs. 67 percent).

Another takeaway: it comes down to women. While the vote preference among men splits, women back the Democratic congressional candidate by 19 points. In 2014, women backed the Democrat by 4 points, while men went for the Republican by 16.

Overall, when the ballot results are narrowed to extremely interested voters, Democrats hold a 56-38 percent advantage. And when narrowed to counties where the 2016 presidential vote was close (Clinton and Trump within 10 points), Democrats are up by 45-39 percent.

The Democratic edge in battleground counties is telling, says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. These are where the competitive districts are that they need to flip to put Nancy Pelosi back in the Speakers chair.

Voters say health care and the economy (18 percent each) will be most important to their vote for Congress, followed closely by party control of the House (14 percent), President Trump (13 percent), and immigration (10 percent).

President Trumps overall approval stands at 45 percent, while 53 percent disapprove. Last month, it was 46-51 percent. His highest ratings, 48-47 percent, came soon after taking office (February 2017). The low was 38-57 percent in October 2017.

Among groups, some of the presidents highest approval comes from Trump voters (93 percent) and very conservative voters (89 percent), while some of the lowest approval comes from black voters (13 percent) and Democrats (12 percent).

The president receives negative ratings on border security (44 percent approve, 51 percent disapprove), international trade (39-53), immigration (39-57), foreign policy (37-55), health care (36-55), and race relations (33-58). His only positive job rating is on the economy (49-44).

Nearly half of voters, 47 percent, give the economy an excellent or good rating, while just over half, 51 percent, rate it only fair or poor. The net positive rating is up 11 points from a year ago, and up 23 points from August 2016. Plus, 12 percent feel the economy is in excellent condition. In trend going back to 1998, that number has been higher only twice -- and once was during Trumps presidency. A record 17 percent said excellent in January 2018.

Its striking how much these views are driven by partisanship. Only Republicans give the economy positive ratings (73 percent excellent or good). Most Democrats (67 percent) and independents (67 percent) say the economy is in fair or poor shape.

When voters are asked, without being read a list, who or what they think is most responsible for the current economy, the most frequent answer is President Trump and Republicans. Forty-four percent feel that way. Former President Obama and Democrats are a distant second at 15 percent.

Pollpourri

Thirty-two percent think life for the next generation of Americans will be better than life today. Thats down from 40 percent last summer. More than twice as many Republicans (50 percent) as Democrats (20 percent) and independents (22 percent) think life will be better. Voters under age 30 are less likely than other age groups to be optimistic for the next generation.

Thirty-six percent of voters think the U.S. moving away from capitalism and more toward socialism would be a good thing, up from 20 percent in 2012. That shift is driven by a jump among voters under 30, as 60 percent say it would be good. It was 29 percent in 2012.

Approval of Congress is out of the teens for the first time since March 2015. Currently, 23 percent of voters approve, up from 19 percent in April. Sixty-eight percent disapprove.

Forty-one percent have a favorable view of President Trump. That makes him more popular than House Speaker Paul Ryan (31 percent favorable), Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (22 percent), Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (28 percent) and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (29 percent). All of these leaders have higher unfavorables than favorables.

The Fox News poll is based on landline and cellphone interviews with 1,009 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide and was conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) from August 19-21, 2018. The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points for all registered voters.

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political party in the United States

The U.S. Democratic Party is one of the two biggest political parties in the United States. The other is the Republican Party. The U.S. also has several smaller political parties known as "third parties." Supporters of this party are known as Democrats.

Every four years the party holds a National Convention where they agree on their candidate for President. The Democratic National Committee coordinates most of the activities of the Democratic Party in all 50 United States. There have been 15 Democratic presidents, the most recent being Barack Obama, who was President from 2009 to 2017. Although their ideology was once to advocate for social democracy, in recent years their ideology has turned towards socialism, progressivism and, in some groups, communism.

Contents

Democrats, also sometimes called 'the left', 'liberals' or 'progressives' make up one of the two main political parties in the United States. A mostly Democratic state is sometimes called a 'blue state'. this original z scheme was based on Great Britain's political system, though it instead used red to denote the more liberal party, was first used in the 1976 presidential election campaign.

Generally Democrats support:

Most support for Democrats comes from states in the Northeast, Northwest and Pacific Coast areas of the USA, but there are Democrats elected to office in all other states too.

The symbol of the Democratic Party is the Donkey. Since the election of 2000, the color blue has become a symbol for Democrats.[source?]

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Democratic Party (United States) - Simple English Wikipedia ...

In Michigan, however, Mr. El-Sayed is counting on a mood of ideological ambition to decide his primary: He remains an underdog, facing a well-funded rival in Ms. Whitmer, who is backed by powerful labor unions like the United Auto Workers. She has led in recent polls, while a third candidate, Shri Thanedar, a wealthy wild card, has complicated the race.

Aiming to build momentum, Mr. El-Sayed will campaign later this month with Ms. Ocasio-Cortez, to whom he linked himself in generation and political outlook. Ms. Ocasio-Cortez also campaigned in Kansas Friday for liberal House candidates and was slated for an event over the weekend for a primary challenger to a Democratic incumbent in Missouri, William Lacy Clay.

The rise of somebody like Alexandria seems kind of obvious to somebody in our generation, Mr. El-Sayed said in an interview, casting the moment in grand terms: The machine, whether it is on the right or on the left, has assented to this broken system of corporate politics, and I think people are real frustrated about that.

That mind-set unnerves Democratic veterans like Mr. Brewer, the former party chairman, in a state where they have long struggled to overcome a Republican machine aligned with the business community. Mr. Trumps slim victory there exposed divisions between the national Democratic Party and many of the white union members on whose votes Michigan Democrats rely, underscoring Democrats tenuous position in 2018.

But within deep-blue precincts where Democratic insurgency appears strongest, talk of accommodating the center is in short supply.

In Massachusetts, where several incumbent House Democrats are facing feisty challenges, Michelle Wu, a 33-year-old member of the Boston City Council, said voters are demanding leaders who share their intense alarm about economic and racial inequality. Defying the local machine, she recently endorsed Ayanna Pressley, a fellow council member, in a primary against Representative Michael Capuano, a long-serving liberal.

People want to believe we can take our own future into our hands, Ms. Wu said.

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