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Thanks to strong support from younger voters, 78-year-old Bernie Sanders is the front-runner for Utahs Democratic presidential primary on March 3 doubling the percentage of support from his nearest rival in a huge field. But one of every five likely voters is still undecided.

Sanders, a liberal Vermont senator, attracts support from 26.5% of Utahns who say theyll vote in the March 3 Democratic primary, according to a Salt Lake Tribune survey conducted by Suffolk University. Fellow progressive Elizabeth Warren, a Massachusetts senator, is No. 2 with 14.4%.

Trailing them in the top tier of candidates are two moderates: former Vice President Joe Biden with 12.1% and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg with 9.9%. The poll of 132 likely Democratic primary voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 8.5 percentage points.

He starts with a foundation of individuals who previously supported him in the presidential contest," Magleby said, and those folks are likely to return and participate in 2020.

It looks like I got some bad information, Sanders said, looking over the first vast crowd. Somebody told me Utah was a Republican state. He has yet to visit the state this year.

Sanders generates most of his Utah support now and in 2016 from younger voters.

In the new poll, Sanders won 49% of the support from likely Democratic voters ages 18-34 and 40% of those ages 35-44 double to tripling what other candidates received from those age groups. Older age groups are far more evenly split. Warren led with those ages 45-54, Bloomberg led among those 55-64 and Biden led among those 65 and older.

For his academic research, Magleby interviewed some of Sanders 2016 managers for media and fundraising about why the senior citizen is so popular with younger voters.

Their answer is: Hes seen by young people as authentic, Magleby said. Sure, hes older. Sure his hair is a little frizzy. But what those young people like in Sanders is that hes the real Bernie. Hes authentic.

Mike Oberbrockling, 35, of Layton, is one of the people polled who plans to vote for Sanders.

After Bernie wins, he is going to do the things he says he is going to do, Oberbrockling said. He seems to be pretty upfront with everything. You watch a lot of interviews with most politicians, and they give long, drawn-out answers that arent clear. Bernie doesnt beat around the bush.

Magleby said many younger voters also seem to see Sanders as a father figure, or a grandfather figure, and Oberbrockling agrees.

Some people call him Americas dad, Oberbrockling said. And just like any dad, he wants whats best for everybody. And the cool thing about Bernie Sanders is it doesnt matter if you support him or not he still wants those better things in place for you, such as Medicare for all.

Magleby said younger voters are also part of an enthusiastic liberal wave that often appears in Democratic presidential campaigns. In contrast, he said, older voters tend to be more centrist and more interested in experience. That is shown by Gaye Anthony, 66, of Taylorsville, one of the Biden supporters among poll respondents.

At this point in our democracy with whats going on [with President Donald Trump], she said, we need [Bidens] experience and temperament to help bring our country back to an order that is more stable and more friendly, and more in keeping with our traditions and our expectations.

Magleby said the poll also shows the strength of the liberal wing in the Utah Democratic Party in a state controlled by Republicans. He notes that progressives Sanders and Warren are capturing 40% of the vote, while centrist moderates trail well behind.

This is not uncommon in one-party states, he said, where the out party is more interested in making a statement than winning an election.

Magleby added it reinforces a perception that the Utah Democratic Party is well left of the Utah mainstream, and that isnt going to help Democrats win any office in the state of Utah, where party labels are on the ballot.

Warren visited Utah last April and announced this week that she hired senior staff here to oversee a grassroots campaign.

Mary Blair, 44, of South Ogden, is one of those polled who is excited about Warrens anti-corruption message. I like that shes not taking any type of PAC money ... because I believe that big business money has to come out of politics. So Im all in on Elizabeth Warren and have been for a long time.

Other candidates in the poll who received some support include: entrepreneur Andrew Yang and former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, 4.6% each; Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, 3%; and billionaire Tom Steyer and Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, 0.8% each.

Originally posted here:
Utah Democrats haven't lost their love for Bernie Sanders, who leads the pack in new poll - Salt Lake Tribune

We have to decide whether to give into the fear or whether to fight back," Warren said. Me, Im fighting back. That's why I'm in this. Im fighting back. Im fighting back because we are at our best as a nation when we fight back. When we see big problems and we take them on and we fight back."

Buttigieg has become Warren's rhetorical opposite, especially as he rose sharply in the Iowa polls last fall.

Having attacked the idea that fighting is the point" at a gathering of thousands of Iowa Democrats in November, the 38-year-old former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, typically only mentions Trump by name once in his standard speech, when he asks his audience to imagine the day after Trump leaves office.

When the on-cue burst of cheers subsides, he speaks of an America in the ashes of an impeachment, a divisive election and, as he did in Fort Dodge on Saturday, in need of being brought together, in need of healing and common purpose."

Biden, a veteran of decades of congressional battles who served as Barack Obama's right-hand man, strikes a balanced tone.

In Ames last week, he said, One of the things a president has to do is you have to be a fighter and a competitor, but a president also needs to be a healer. You have to heal the country." He repeated that theme on Sunday in Marshalltown, saying, We can't go on with this endless political war.

Even as Sanders, who labeled Trump a racist, a sexist, a homophobe and a religious bigot" in his opening remarks to a college audience in Ames on Saturday, unity has emerged as a theme as caucus night has approached.

Read this article:
Democrats' Competing Impulses: Should They Fight or Unite? - The New York Times

Mr. Sanders and Ms. Warren have accused one another of lying about a private conversation in 2018 over whether a woman could become president; Mr. Sanders and Mr. Biden have attacked each other over Social Security and corruption; and Hillary Clinton, the 2016 Democratic nominee, has come off the sidelines to stoke her rivalry with Mr. Sanders, declaring that nobody likes him.

The lack of consensus among Democratic voters, 10 days before the presidential nominating primary begins with the Iowa caucuses, has led some party leaders to make unusually fervent and early pleas for unity. On Monday alone, a pair of influential Democratic congressmen issued strikingly similar warnings to very different audiences in very different states.

We get down to November, theres only going to be one nominee, Representative James E. Clyburn of South Carolina, the third-ranking House Democrat, said at a ceremony for Martin Luther Kings Birthday at the State House in Columbia. Nobody can afford to get so angry because your first choice did not win. If you stay home in November, you are going to get Trump back.

No matter who our nominee is, we cant make the mistake that we made in 16, Representative Dave Loebsack of Iowa said that night in Cedar Rapids as he introduced his preferred 2020 candidate, former Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind., at a town hall meeting. We all got to get behind that person so we can get Donald Trump out of office, Mr. Loebsack added.

In interviews, Democratic leaders say they believe the partys fights over such politically fraught issues as treasured entitlement programs, personal integrity, and gender and electability could hand Mr. Trump and foreign actors ammunition with which to depress turnout for their standard-bearer.

I am concerned about facing another disinformation campaign from the other side, said Representative Brendan Boyle of Pennsylvania, a Biden supporter who was uneasy enough that he recently sought out high-profile congressional backers of some of the other contenders to discuss an eventual dtente. For those of us who are elected officials, we need to exercise real leadership to make sure all of the camps are immediately united after all this is over.

Excerpt from:
A Major Fear for Democrats: Will the Party Come Together by November? - The New York Times

(Reuters) - Donald Trump and the Democrats hoping to unseat him as president all say they want to reform the criminal justice system in the United States, which held 2.3 million people behind bars in 2019

Here is a look at the criminal justice platforms for leading Democrats running for the presidential nomination as well as Trump's record during his first term in office.

DONALD TRUMP

The Republican president signed into law the First Step Act, which reduced mandatory minimum sentences, required officials to try to place inmates in prisons near family, expanded drug treatment programs for prisoners and parolees, and allowed some federal prisoners to finish their sentences early with good behavior.

The measure expanded a 2010 law that reduced higher penalties for possession of crack cocaine, a drug used more by the poor and minorities, than for powder cocaine, used more by the wealthy.

Still, Democrats accuse the Trump administration of lax oversight over local police departments accused of civil rights violations and criticize Trump's endorsement of the death penalty and other policies that disproportionately affect minorities.

Trump has also sought to re-start executions of federal death row inmates, but the request was rejected by the U.S. Supreme Court in December.

JOE BIDEN

Biden, who served as vice president under former U.S. President Barack Obama, proposed eliminating prison sentences for drug use, decriminalizing marijuana and eliminating sentencing disparities for offenses involving crack and powder cocaine.

He also would eliminate the death penalty. He promises to end mandatory sentencing that takes discretion away from judges, eliminate private prisons and end the federal system of cash bail, under which defendants who cannot afford to pay must await trial in jail.

Biden also has pledged to reform the juvenile justice system, including keeping youths from being incarcerated with adults. He plans efforts to eliminate barriers for felons re-entering society from prison, including restrictions on allowing them to receive food stamps, educational Pell grants and housing support.

BERNIE SANDERS

Sanders, a U.S. senator from Vermont, wants to ban for-profit prisons, abolish the death penalty and tighten rules and penalties for police misconduct.

His plan would end 1990s-era "three strikes and you're out" laws, which mandated life sentences for people convicted of more than two felonies, even if the third crime is a minor offense.

Sanders says he will change the way police officers are trained and deployed, bringing in social workers or conflict negotiators to defuse dangerous situations and mandating criminal charges against officers who engage in misconduct that violates someone's civil rights.

ELIZABETH WARREN

Warren, a U.S. senator from Massachusetts, says the United States has "criminalized too many things." She calls for increasing social services that help young people stay out of prison, decriminalizing truancy and relying on counselors and teachers rather than police officers in schools.

Warren has vowed to push to repeal the 1994 crime bill, which imposed harsh sentences on major and minor crimes alike and removed much of the discretion judges have in deciding who should be incarcerated and for how long. She would also legalize marijuana at the federal level and erase past convictions for use of the drug.

PETE BUTTIGIEG

Buttigieg, the former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, focuses his criminal justice plan on the system's disproportionate impact on African Americans.

His proposal would end prison sentences for drug possession and expand diversion programs aimed at keeping people with mental health and addiction problems out of the criminal justice system.

Buttigieg has pledged to improve rehabilitation services for inmates re-entering society. He also opposes imprisoning people or suspending their drivers' licenses for failing to pay fines and court costs. He has promised $100 million to states that replace youth prisons with support services, and has proposed additional investment in black communities disproportionately hit by imprisonment.

AMY KLOBUCHAR

Klobuchar, a former prosecutor and a U.S. senator from Minnesota, built her criminal justice proposals around a call for providing mental health rather than law enforcement interventions when appropriate, and creating a clemency board to review long sentences and consider releasing many offenders.

She was a co-sponsor of the First Step Act, which eased harsh sentences for many nonviolent crimes. As president, Klobuchar would also further reform the system of requiring mandatory minimum sentences for many crimes, including first-time drug offenses.

MICHAEL BLOOMBERG

Bloomberg, a former mayor of New York City, has been criticized by supporters of criminal justice reform for his onetime embrace of a policy known as stop-and-frisk, which allowed police to detain and search people on the street and disproportionately affected communities of color. Bloomberg in November apologized for the program and called it a mistake, although it was for years an accepted practice during his administration.

In December, Bloomberg decried mass incarceration and vowed to seek alternatives to incarceration for nonviolent defendants awaiting trial and to cut in half the number of juveniles behind bars.

ANDREW YANG

Yang, a businessman, would end the use of for-profit prisons. He would review sentencing laws to bring prison terms in line with what data shows are effective. He also has vowed to investigate racial disparities in the criminal justice system and to better fund programs aimed at reducing recidivism and aiding re-entry to society for people who have completed their terms.

TOM STEYER

Steyer, a billionaire former hedge fund manager and political activist, reflects the views of most progressive Democrats on criminal justice. He decries the prison system as racist and promises to work to eliminate private prisons, end cash bail and reduce the prison population.

He would create incentives for states to repeal "stand your ground" laws, which allow people to use deadly force for self-defense, even when retreating from the situation would also keep them safe.

(Reporting by Trevor Hunnicutt and Sharon Bernstein; Editing by James Oliphant and Daniel Wallis)

Link:
Trump and 2020 Democrats Brand Themselves Criminal Justice Reformers - The New York Times

An onslaught of spending and national attention has led to unprecedented voter turnout for a special runoff election in Fort Bend County where both parties are vying for a win that could forecast whether Texas is ripe for a shift in political power.

Cameos from busy presidential hopefuls and hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of political ads have flooded the north Fort Bend County district in an effort to prop up Democrat Elizabeth Eliz Markowitz, an educator, in the longtime Republican district for the Texas House. Gary Gates, a Republican and founder of a property management company, is fighting back against the onslaught with the backing of Gov. Greg Abbott and other high-ranking Republicans along with $1.5 million of his own money added to his campaign.

The attention on the otherwise small legislative race has led to high turnout ahead of Tuesdays special election. Nearly 18,000 voters cast ballots early and by mail during the four-day early voting period last week. The turnout eclipses the number of people who voted early over a 12-day stretch last fall when voters whittled down the original field from seven candidates to two in November.

At stake is a national effort to flip the Republican-led Texas House to Democratic control, shifting key political power ahead of the 2021 legislative session when lawmakers will redraw congressional and state legislative districts that could reshape politics for the state and nation for the next decade.

If Democrats pull off a victory, it would signal to donors across the country that they could win the nine seats needed to take control of the Texas House, said Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University. That could open the spigot of political donations in dozens of targeted races, including 11 in the Houston area and others in north and central Texas.

They really have set it up as a test case of, Do Democrats have a chance of flipping the Texas House in 2020? Jones said.

Voter registration is up across Texas, especially in Fort Bend County where 452,000 people are registered to vote, a 30 percent increase since 2014. That is faster than the population growth, which ballooned by 24 percent during the same time period.

For subscribers: Texas tops 16 million voters as registration deadline looms

Texas is politically in play in a way it has not been in years. Although Republicans control all statewide elected positions and both seats in the U.S. Senate, voter support for the GOP slipped in 2018. Democrats flipped a dozen Republican state House districts that year, and Democrat Beto ORourke won over a slew of counties that long favored Republicans in his failed bid for U.S. Senate.

Republicans have won House District 28 handily in past elections, including 2018 when former Richmond Rep. John Zerwas defeated Democrat Meghan Scoggins by about 8 percentage points. He retired last fall, leaving the seat vacant.

Despite Zerwas final electoral win, Democrats suggest Republicans are losing their grip in the district. ORourke lost by 3 percentage points there to Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, closing a 10 percentage-point gap from the 2016 election when then-candidate Donald Trump carried the district over Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Democrat Markowitz earned her seat in the runoff with 39 percent of the vote, followed by Gates at 28 percent, prompting a runoff. Collectively, the six Republican candidates made up 61 percent of the vote.

Regardless of the outcome of Tuesdays election, the seat is up for election again in November.

The surge in early voting comes after months of political celebrities dropping in Fort Bend to campaign and block walk for Markowitz, including Democratic presidential hopefuls Michael Bloomberg, Julin Castro and ORourke. Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren also have endorsed Markowitz.

A teacher trainer, Markowitz has reported a significant fundraising haul, in part due to the outsize attention from the presidential candidates. She has raised about $583,000 throughout her campaign, with a large chunk coming from outside Texas; she received an additional $144,000 worth of in-kind support from organizations that have provided campaign staff and other services.

Those totals do not account for the scores of out-of-state Democratic groups that have contributed or spent hundreds of thousands of dollars to aid Markowitzs campaign, including two groups that have invested six figures each.

People are paying attention to Texas. This is the biggest battleground state in the country. There are 38 electoral votes on the table. The state Legislature is in play for the first time since 2001, said Odus Evbagharu, campaign manager for Markowitz. For a long time, weve said Texas is on the cusp. People are starting to believe it, and youre seeing it right now reflected in House District 28.

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which supports Democratic candidates nationwide, spent nearly $200,000 on campaign ads supporting Markowitz, while a super PAC called Forward Majority put $200,000 into polling, direct mail and TV ads, including one earlier this month re-upping 20-year-old allegations Gates abused his children. Gates, who adopted 11 children, was accused of child abuse after punishing one of the children by sending him to school with a bag of fig bar wrappers pinned to his shirt. Although his children were taken away for several days amid further allegations of unconventional punishments, the case eventually was dropped. The Texas Democratic Party seized on the episode this month, calling on Abbott to rescind his endorsement of Gates.

On HoustonChronicle.com: Democrats attack Fort Bend state House candidate over 2000 child abuse case

Gates, who has self-funded much of his campaign, is endorsed by the governor and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who argue the extensive attention on the Texas race by outside influences reflects an effort by Democrats to bring socialism to the Legislature.

This is an important special election for a House Seat the Republicans need to hold, Patrick said in a statement Friday. Gary Gates will be a strong conservative voice for that district and I ask all Republicans in House District 28 to get out and vote. Dont let Beto and the socialist Democrats steal this seat.

Republicans have responded with other attacks, including a digital ad run by Abbotts political action committee that links Markowitz to ORourke and his support for a mandatory assault weapon buyback program. The Gates campaigns tracking polls indicate the gun buyback issue has been particularly effective in mobilizing voters, said Craig Murphy, Gates political consultant.

Abbott also has marshaled campaign workers to canvass the district for Gates, and Republicans are busing in block walkers from around the state, according to Quorum Report, a Texas political newsletter.

Democrats have cast the voter enthusiasm as proof the traditionally red-leaning district is in play. They argue the involvement of Abbott and U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, both of whom have endorsed Gates, signals GOP concern about holding the seat.

Murphy, Gates political consultant, said a breakdown of early voters primary voting history indicates far more Republicans than Democrats have turned out so far.

Its super, super clear whats happening in this election, Murphy said. Their path to victory seems nonexistent here. Gary Gates is winning just about every category there is except Democrats independents, Republicans, women, various age groups. So I cant help but be confident.

Rebecca Deen, chair of the department of political science at the University of Texas at Arlington, is skeptical Democrats will win enough seats to take control of the Texas House.

This might be the year, she said. Its hard to tell when the year will be. All things being equal and all turnout being the turnout of previous turnout, Texas is not as purple as Democrats hope it is.

jasper.scherer@chron.com

andrea.zelinski@chron.com

Read more here:
The test: Can Democrats flip the most watched Republican district in Texas? - Houston Chronicle