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The marked decline in support for President BidenJoe BidenNewsom easily beats back recall effort in California Second senior official leaving DHS in a week Top Republican: General told senators he opposed Afghanistan withdrawal MORE and his administration nationally and in key swing states indicates that the Democratic Party could endure a blowout defeat in the 2022 midterm elections.

Moreover, Biden is in a significantly weaker position now than both of his most recent Democratic predecessors Bill ClintonWilliam (Bill) Jefferson ClintonBiden nominates ex-State Department official as Export-Import Bank leader Obamas, Bushes and Clintons joining new effort to help Afghan refugees 9/11 and US-China policy: The geopolitics of distraction MORE and Barack ObamaBarack Hussein ObamaGensler compares cryptocurrency market, regulations to 'wild west' We must mount an all-country response to help our Afghan allies Obamas, Bushes and Clintons joining new effort to help Afghan refugees MORE at this point in their presidencies, which suggests that Democrats could suffer even more substantial losses in 2022 than the party did in 1994 and 2010.

Indeed, voters nationally and in seven key swing states disapprove, rather than approve, of the job Biden is doing by a margin of 7 points or greater, according to a Civiqs survey released last week.

Nationally, 50 percent of voters disapprove of the job Biden is doing as president, while just 42 percent approve.

For reference, at the same point in Obamas first term, Obamas net approval rating was 19 points higher than Bidens is right now. At the time, a majority of voters (52 percent) approved of Obama, while 41 percent disapproved, according to a Gallup survey released on Sept. 13, 2009.

That being said, in the 2010 midterm elections, Democrats lost a net of 64 House seatsand Republicans gained six seats in the Senate.

Likewise, on Sept. 12, 1993, Clintons approval rating was recorded at 47 percent approve and 42 percent disapprove by a Gallup survey. To put that in context, Clintons net approval rating was 13 points higher than Bidens is at the same point in his presidency.

Yet in the 1994 midterms, Democrats lost a net of 52 House seats and Republicans picked up eight seats in the Senate.

To note, Democrats blowout midterm defeats in both 1994 and 2010 can be attributed in large part to their passage of massive spending and tax bills in the years prior.

The Democrats 1994 defeat came after they pushed through Congress the then-largest tax increase in history without any Republican support. And in 2010, Democrats lost due in large part to voters perception of an ineffective economic stimulusas well as governmental overreach on health care and the economy by the administration and congressional Democrats.

To note, a number of recent polls show that voters have grown increasingly negative on the Biden administrations handling of major domestic issues, including the economy, COVID-19, immigration at the southern borderand the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan.

And now, with congressional Democrats having approved a budget blueprint in their $3.5 trillion dollar spending bill which will bring massive tax increases and will likely increase the debt, deficit and inflation the electoral backlash against Democrats could be even more substantial than in both 1994 and 2010.

In addition to Bidens precipitous national decline, the presidents approval rating in key swing states, most of which he won in 2020, has dropped. This of course bodes poorly for Democrats 2022 prospects and also makes it increasingly likely that Biden will be a one-term president notwithstanding a dramatic turn of events in Democrats favor.

In five key swing states Georgia, Florida, Arizona, North Carolina and Pennsylvania voters disapprove, rather than approve, of the job Biden is doing by a 10-point margin or greater, according to the aforementioned Civiqs polls. To note, Biden won Georgia, Arizona and Pennsylvania in 2020 and narrowly lost North Carolina and Florida.

And in Michigan and Wisconsin two swing states that were once reliably Democratic, both of which Biden won in 2020 voters now disapprove of the presidents job performance by margins of 7 and 8 points, respectively.

It is noteworthy that, both nationally and in these key states, Bidens approval has been driven down in large part by independent voters. Though Biden won national independent voters handily in 2020, a majority (58 percent) now disapprove of the president, while just 31 percent approve.

This data is clearly troubling for Democrats especially when taken together with the fact that the mere circumstances of the 2022 midterms are challenging for the party. Republicans need to pick up just five House seats, and redistricting alone could cost Democrats close to or even more than that number.

Further, since World War II, only twice has the presidents party gained seats in the midterm elections in 1998 and 2002, when both presidents had approval ratings over 60 percent and, even so, saw only meager House seat gains.

Simply put, the current 2022 outlook for Democrats is grim and it could get even worse.

If the Biden administration continues to push unnecessarily big government spending initiatives and tax increases, along with weak immigration policies and an incoherent foreign policy strategy, Democrats could suffer the most substantial midterm loss of any party in recent history.

Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant who served as an adviser to President Clinton and to the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael BloombergMichael BloombergWithout drastic changes, Democrats are on track to lose big in 2022 Bidens, former presidents mark 9/11 anniversary The tragedy of 9/11 an inflection point in American history MORE. He is the co-author of a forthcoming book The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat."

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Without drastic changes, Democrats are on track to lose big in 2022 | TheHill - The Hill

UPDATE: 7:15 p.m.

By 5 p.m. at Springdale School, the District 17 polling place, the stream of voters grew steadier. A serpentine line bubbled up at the precinct's entrance, studded with parents and their children waiting in line to vote.

Just before the after-work crowd descended, turnout there looked more robust, with 231 voters casting a ballot, according to the site's moderators.

With her infant daughter perched on her hip, Katherine Velez emerged from the double doors after casting a vote for Simmons. The state representative caught Velez's attention because of her campaign promise to rebuild the faltering infrastructure at Stamford Public Schools.

"The mayor has been in office for years now," Velez said. In her mind, Martin had failed to make meaningful progress in the schools, and his opponent was exactly the change the city needed, she said.

On the other hand, Celia Didier was more concerned about the infrastructure on her street in Springdale. She wants to see the roads paved and speed bumps installed and has been on high alert after hearing about a spate of carjackings in the neighborhood.

"I feel like I need my voice heard," she said, but fate foiled that decree before she could formally back Mayor Martin for his third term. She wasn't showing up in the voter rolls. Didier would have to head to the city's Registrar of Voters if she wanted to partake in this year's polling.

Though both candidates have pledged to maintain Stamford's momentum and remedy the ills of administrations past, Simmons voter Tim Nash said he understood that both of the day's contenders were fundamentally similar candidates.

The real difference, he suggested, lay in their experiences.

"It's a classic case of traditional politics versus the progressive way of thinking," Nash quipped before heading into the polls.

UPDATE: 6:50 p.m.

In District 19 around 5 p.m., the Democratic candidates for the Board of Representatives chatted with voters outside the Long Ridge Fire Companys station on Old Long Ridge Road. The Stamford Democratic City Committee-endorsed candidates, Don Mays and John Pelliccia, were joined by current District 19 Rep. Bob Lion, who decided not to run for reelection this year, and District 13 Rep. Eric Morson.

I think the turnout is probably a little more than I expected, Mays said. Having it be a nice day is very, very helpful. For us, I think were doing pretty well. Its really hard to tell.

Pelliccia said he was feeling optimistic after all their conversations with voters.

Their opponents, Jennifer Matheny and Pina Basone, were also upbeat.

I think that all our efforts really paid off, Basone said.

We made some great connections when we knocked (on) doors, and it showed here today, Matheny said. We had so many people say, I remember you. We talked about this. We talked about that.

North Stamford resident Aaron Chisena said he voted for Mays and Pelliccia for the Board of Representatives, and Simmons for mayor.

Ive lived in Stamford for about eight years, and I think that Stamford kind of needs a change and some new blood, Chisena said.

Also at the polling location was Simmons father, Steve, who held up a campaign sign for his daughter and greeted voters.

Ron Malloy, Stamfords Democratic registrar of voters, said 402 people had voted at the polling spot as of 6 p.m. the most of any district so far.

UPDATE:6:25 p.m.

Just before 4 p.m., poll moderator Cynthia Pulley admitted it had been a slow day at the District Eight polls, housed at the Old Rogers School. Though the afternoon rush, with its reliable influx of voters, had yet to strike, 98 voters had cast their ballots at Pulley's location.

After nine years working every election in Stamford, Pulley, 40, said she understood the ebbs and flows of the day well. There was always a morning crowd and a lunch crowd before the afternoon rush. The "last minuters" showed up just before polls closed, all scrambling to fill out their ballots before it became too late.

"People turn out for the presidential elections," she said, "but I feel like this is more important."

On a grassy patch in the parking lot outside of the school, now home to Domus Kids, Kyle Houser stood with a bright blue "Caroline Simmons for Mayor" sign. All around him, placards heralded both Democratic candidates, Simmons and incumbent Mayor David Martin.

Regardless, he'd come specifically on behalf of the Stamford Professional Fire Fighters Association. The union of 250 firefighters threw its support behind Simmons early on in the campaign.

"Her voting record on fire issues is impeccable," Houser, 39, said. The union advocates for growing the fire department to meet the demands of a growing Stamford and is confident that Simmons could help them achieve their goal.

Houser pointed out that, even though Stamford is now the second biggest city in the state, it has the "fourth-largest full-time fire force," which he said could put residents at risk.

He added: "Weve seen an effort to grow the city... but not its public safety."

UPDATE: 11:15 a.m.

Incumbent city Reps. Gloria DePina and Lila Wallace stood by the entrance of the District 5 voting location at the Yerwood Center early Tuesday morning as challengers Bonnie Kim Campbell and Melinda Punkin Baxter beckoned voters from nearby.

District 5 is a hotly contested battleground with its three primary races that will decide two Democratic candidate slots for the Board of Representatives and one for the Democratic mayoral candidate.

Despite those races, moderator Darwin Davis said as of 9:45 a.m. less than 100 voters had turned out to cast their ballots.

Id say weve had a consistent flow of voters though, Davis said.

Lafayette Bryant, 41, said he came to the polls Tuesday morning to vote for DePina. DePina, he said, has been a vocal advocate for the Black community in the West Side.

Were looking for a change in the Stamford community with the rise of homelessness, and we definitely want to address some of the things that are happening with city jobs. I feel like there is a lot of discrimination, Bryant said.

While there, Bryant said he cast a vote for incumbent Mayor David Martin as well.

Stefanie Markham said she was driven to vote on Tuesday because she felt Stamford is in need some new blood.

Markham, whose family has lived in the city for decades, said she felt the incumbent Democrats werent doing enough to address the issues facing longtime Stamford residents, so she voted for Campbell, Baxter and state Rep. Caroline Simmons for mayor.

There are high rises going up everywhere, the rents are skyrocketing, theres not enough affordable housing and (Martin) isnt really doing anything to help us, Markham said.

Original story:

STAMFORD Its Primary Day for the citys Democrats, who will be choosing the candidate who they think has the best chance of beating former Major League Baseball manager Bobby Valentine in the Stamford mayoral election in November.

Does incumbent Mayor David Martin or state Rep. Caroline Simmons have the better shot for a Democrat to remain at the helm of the city and hold off a challenge by Valentine, who is running as an unaffiliated candidate?

After Simmons won the endorsement of the Democratic City Committee in a tight vote this summer, Martin submitted enough signatures from registered Democrats to force a primary election. Martin was first elected mayor in 2013.

Besides the mayoral race, city Democrats in two districts are also deciding who to back in runs for the Board of Representatives.

Bonnie Kim Campbell and Melinda Punkin Baxter are challenging incumbent Reps. Gloria DePina and Lila Wallace in District 5.

In District 19, Jennifer Matheny and Pina Basone are running against DCC-endorsed candidates Don Mays and John Pelliccia. The current representatives of the district, Bob Lion and Raven Matherne, decided not to seek reelection this year.

There are about 31,300 registered Democrats in Stamford, according to the registrars of voters. There are about 13,400 registered Republicans and 27,500 unaffiliated voters in the city.

Only registered Democrats can vote in the primary. There is no same-day registration.

Polls will be open from 6 a.m. to 8 p.m. Tuesday. There are 20 polling locations across the city. Voters can find their polling place at http://www.stamfordct.gov.

Those who have applied for and received absentee ballots have until 8 p.m. Tuesday to drop them off at a ballot box in the parking garage of the Stamford Government Center, 888 Washington Blvd., or at a box outside the Harry Bennett library, 115 Vine Road. Voters were able to use COVID-19 as a reason for seeking an absentee ballot.

For those who have mailed in their absentee ballots, the town clerks office must receive them on Election Day at the latest or else they wont be counted.

Staff writer Brianna Gurciullo contributed to this report.

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Martin or Simmons? Democrats head to the polls for primary in Stamford mayoral race - The Advocate

Photo: Erik Pendzich/Shutterstock

Monday night, after Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez appeared at the Met Gala wearing a dress emblazoned with the slogan Tax the Rich, her critics exploded in indignation. The complaint (mostly, but not exclusively, from the right) assailed AOCs fraud, hypocrisy, and peddling empty political slogans.

But what exactly is the problem here? Should a politician who favors higher taxes on the rich avoid social engagements with them?

To the (very limited) extent to which the critics were able to articulate what they see as the contradiction between her beliefs and her behavior, it appears to be as follows: AOC believes rich people are terrible and should be outlawed or killed, yet she mingles comfortably among them. Our asshat radicals cosplay the revolution, complains cool-kids philosopher Ben Shapiro. Actual revolutionaries eat the rich. They dont eat cake with the rich, then declare their virtue by wearing a shirt saying Eat the rich.

But of course AOC is not, and does not claim to be, an actual revolutionary. She is an advocate of dramatically more egalitarian economic policy, but not an advocate of executing the rich. Her agenda is not based on a moral critique of the rich, but a rather banal observation that rich people can stand to have less money in order to finance social needs for those in greater need.

Indeed, the whole idea that the Democratic Partys rationale for more progressive taxation is based on personal moral condemnation of the rich is almost entirely a canard invented by the right. First conservatives accuse liberals of hating and wishing to punish the rich, and then turn around and accuse them of hypocrisy for violating the belief they never actually held.

The strangest aspect of this little setpiece in political outrage theater is that AOCs stance on taxing the rich is not an answer we need to divine by projecting fantasies onto her appearance. She is an elected official with written, measurable policy proposals, and a key player in a live ongoing debate over what is intended to be the most significant tax increase on the rich in decades.

AOCs glamorous evening hobnobbing with the rich is orders of magnitude less consequential than her intention to tax their fortunes. Whats truly shallow is the fixation with symbolism and cultural association rather than the concrete fiscal transfer taking shape right now. It is bizarre to watch AOC be accused of being a fake class warrior in the midst of a live class war in Washington with trillions of dollars at stake.

Just how we reached such a delusional point merits some reflection. The cause seems to be a trope in political commentary that identifies Democrats as the party of the rich and Republicans as the party of the working class. Millions and millions of words have been spilled probing the thoughts of the lumpenproletariat Trump base in their truck stops. Hardly a day goes by without one columnist or another assailing Democrats as The Billionaires Party (in this case, National Reviews Kevin Williamson, from Sunday). The left bemoans the Democrats alienation from the common folk, while the right gloats over it.

There is some underlying basis for this. Politics throughout the western world have grown increasingly polarized by education. And since education and income are correlated, this has pushed affluent voters increasingly to the left while nonaffluent voters have moved right. Of course, if you disaggregate education and income, you can see that affluence still makes you more Republican, and poverty makes you more Democratic. (High-income voters without a college degree are an extremely Republican constituency.) And the phenomenon is a trend, not a level, which is to say that working-class Democrats and rich Republicans remain very plentiful.

One result of this trend is that Democrats have increased their cultural power. The dominant position progressive ideas have held in academia for decades has spread to entertainment, media, and even many businesses. Conservatives are not just working the refs when they claim to feel marginalized. Holding right-wing beliefs while living in a place like New York, Washington, or Los Angeles has become a genuinely alienating experience.

But the changes in the composition of the two parties voting bases have not altered the long-standing class orientation of their policy agendas. Democrats still vote to redistribute income downward, while Republicans vote to redistribute it upwards. The political medias fixation with the marginal change in the composition of the two parties bases has made it lose touch with the actual purpose to which they use their power.

The class orientation of their programs the important things they actually do with power has not changed. Democrats are pushing through a bill whose intent and effect would be to bring about a historically large downward transfer of resources. The upper-middle-class voters the party has been attracting in greater numbers would face combined tax rates at or around 60 percent, in the highest tax states. The spending these taxes would finance would go to people of modest means.

It surely isnt Met Gala attendees who will make use of expanded Medicaid in red states or free community college. The people dismissing programs like that as undesirable or unaffordable are the conservatives who posture as tribunes of the working people.

Indeed, the two parties are more polarized over redistribution than any other single dynamic. Republicans will routinely abandon their posture against spending, deficits, centralized government control, but they will never waver from their opposition to taxing the rich.

Notably, the recent bipartisan infrastructure bill further revealed that the Republicans are not implacably opposed to taxes per se. They repeatedly floated proposals to finance roads and bridges with regressive user fees. Democrats refused, insisting that taxes must fall exclusively on people earning $400,000 or more, a demand Republicans would not abide. While they papered over the divide by settling on a series of fake funding sources, the dispute revealed how cleanly the partisan divide runs along class lines: Republicans would only accept regressive taxes, while Democrats would only accept progressive taxes.

For all Donald Trumps dclass behavior and political appeal to non-college-educated voters, neither his administration nor his political allies ever challenged the partys plutocratic cast. His administrations signature domestic policy revolved around a giant tax cut for the wealthy and business owners, and a failed effort to throw middle-class people off their health insurance to finance another tax cut for the wealthy.

The Republican Party has spurred a lot of talk about populism, but nothing resembling a serious challenge to its fanatical opposition to redistribution. If J.D. Vance is elected to the Senate, he will vote for the next big capital gains or estate tax cut Republicans put in front of him.

Even a casual familiarity with the contours of the ongoing policy fight would dispel the vulgar Marxist assumption that the Democratic Partys growing support among affluent voters would signify a rightward change in its economic program. Its downright strange to be living through a polarized fight over whether hundreds of billions of dollars will remain in the hands of the wealthy, or instead be used to finance benefits for the downtrodden without the broader debate taking any real note of it.

You would think the class contours of the debate in Joe Bidens Washington would be obvious enough that people clinging to their image of fancy Democrats and downscale Republicans couldnt ignore it anymore. But the human ability to ignore the obvious is strong enough that many of us cant see who wants to tax the rich even when its staring right at us in blazing red letters.

Analysis and commentary on the latest political news from New York columnist Jonathan Chait.

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What If We Had a Class War and Nobody Noticed? - New York Magazine

Low-income communities and people of color tend to be especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change because of historic inequities. In recognition of that fact, legislation introduced by Senator Edward J. Markey of Massachusetts and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, both Democrats, would require that at least half the members of a climate corps come from under-resourced communities of need. In addition, at least half the investment would support projects in underserved communities, with at least 10 percent spent in Native American lands.

Their bill, which has support from major environmental groups like the Sunrise Movement, would create the climate corps as part of AmeriCorps.

Tens of thousands of young people are going to be working to future-proof our country, Mr. Markey said. Within five years, he added, a Civilian Climate Corps will become part of the personality of the country in terms of how a whole new generation views climate change.

That has some Republicans worried.

What exactly does that mean? Representative Tom McClintock of California asked at a recent hearing. Does it mean a taxpayer funded community organizing effort? Young climate pioneers in every neighborhood to report on who is watering their lawn, whose fireplace is smoking, who is spreading forbidden climate disinformation?

Others noted that President Franklin Delano Roosevelts conservation corps was created when the United States was suffering from 20 percent unemployment. Thats not the current situation, where the national unemployment rate was 5.2 percent in August and many companies are having difficulty finding workers.

Representative Bruce Westerman of Arkansas, the top Republican on the House Committee on Natural Resources, called the Civilian Climate Corps a make-work program that will compete against American businesses at a time when help wanted signs remain in the windows.

Ultimately, however, Republicans are not in a position to influence the package since the party has already signaled members will unanimously oppose the broader $3.5 trillion budget bill. The fate of the program is up to Democrats and whether they can reach agreement, supporters of the climate corps said.

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Democrats Want a Climate Corps. They Just Cant Agree How to Create It. - The New York Times

BRENDEN MOORE

Lee Enterprises' Illinois state government reporter Brenden Moore talks with Illinois redistricting expert Frank Calabrese about the state's new maps.

Plugging in newly available 2020 data from the U.S. Census Bureau, Illinois lawmakers approved an amended state legislative redistricting map last week.

It passed over the strenuous objections of Republicans and good government groups, who decried the process employed by majority Democrats.

Republicans and groups like theMexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund have sued to have it thrown out and may even have a good case.

But, if the maps do stand up in court, as Democrat-drawn maps have the past couple redistricting cycles, their impact will be felt for the next decade.

Illinois State Rep. Lisa Hernandez, D-Cicero, holds her hand over her heart as she is thanked by Illinois State Rep. Jehan Gordon-Booth, D-Peoria, after passage of the Illinois legislative maps proposal on the floor of the Illinois House of Representatives at the Illinois State Capitol in Springfield on Tuesday, Aug. 31, 2021.

To get a better idea of what this map means for representation in Springfield, I spoke with Frank Calabrese, a political consultant who has become the unofficial mapmaker and go-to Illinois redistricting expert this cycle.

Below is a transcription of our conversation, edited lightly for length and clarity:

LEE ENTERPRISES: Give the 40,000-foot view of these new legislative maps. What were the key takeaways and what does it mean for the next decade of legislative elections?

FRANK CALABRESE: The big picture view is this really solidifies Springfield under Democratic control. It's a very aggressive map. Also, it's made to create chaos within the Republican caucus. So, you see all these Republicans having to run against other Republicans.

There's 45 House Republicans. And of that 45, there are seven pairings, so there's 14 members that are affected by this ... So, just imagine that a third of your caucus is going to have to make a decision whether or not they're going to run against another member. That creates a lot of internal chaos.

It's a great map for the Democrats. They're going to be in power with the supermajority for the next 10 years. It would take an extreme realignment nationally to change that.

LEE: Is this map merely about maintaining Democratic majorities or are there opportunities for the party to expand their majorities? If so, whats a realistic number?

CALABRESE: Toward the end of the decade, I think the Democrats will realistically pick up 80 seats (in the House), so a net gain of seven. But that's kind of long term. I think initially, they'll pick up four in the next election. In the Senate, I have them losing seats.

In the House, there's two open seats right now that are Democratic: it's that Bloomington-Normal seat that goes to Bartonville and near Peoria. That's probably a Democratic pickup.

And then you have a seat in the northwest suburbs ... which is parts of Palatine and Arlington Heights. That's pretty Democratic now. Ten or 20 years ago, that used to be very Republican, but a lot of well-educated areas have really swung Democratic because of Trump.

The Republican Party, they're still embracing Trump. And what that means is that Republicans are going to do well in the rural areas and they're going to do bad in suburban areas.

The revised Illinois state legislative districts, as drawn by redistricting expert Frank Calabrese. Lawmakers approved adjustments in late August. The map will be in effect for the next 10 years.

And then you have (Republican Rep. Mark Batinicks) district, which is like Plainfield. It has gotten significantly more Democratic. He could win in the midterm it's probably going to be a Republican midterm. So that's one of those seats where he could win in 2022, but he'll probably lose in 2024 and in the future with these trends becoming worse and the suburbs getting more and more Democratic. And the same thing with Keith Wheeler. He could win I would call it a toss up in his district.

It's really unlikely that Mark Batinick and Keith Wheeler are going to be there for 10 years. They could be there for two years, but much longer than that, I think it's going to be tough.

The other pickup (opportunity is state Rep. Jackie Haas' Kankakee-based district). Her district was a rural white district that had some labor influence, which kind of made it a swing district. Now her district's a quarter Black. They put a lot of the Black population of Kankakee in her district. And so Haas' district, it's a tossup. It was basically 50/50 between Trump and Biden, but it's trending Democratic. She could win in that district in the midterm, but in the future, I think that's a Democratic pickup.

LEE: The maps passed in May, but lawmakers had to go back in August to tweak them. Why was this necessary?

CALABRESE: One of my critiques of the Democrats' map is that they made a map for 2019. And the problem is you're supposed to redistrict for 2020, right? So to no surprise, areas that are shrinking in population, they lost more population. And areas that are growing, especially areas that are growing rapidly, they gained a lot more.

I live in Chicago, and if you build a high-rise and 5,000 people move in, that can happen in a year. So that's what happened the downtown area grew and that wasn't incorporated in the 2019 data. So Lamont Robinson's district was 15% over the mean, (which) is about 108,000 per House district.

What they should have done is they should have made those districts smaller in population anticipating future growth. They should have built the trends into their map.

And now the Republicans have an argument saying that the map that they passed in May is void and they're going to go to court saying that it was a bad map in May, they just can't pass whatever to avoid a (redistricting) commission. They're going to go to court and it adds a degree to uncertainty of whether this map can stand.

Illinois State Rep. Tim Butler, R-Springfield, talks with Illinois State Rep. Lisa Hernandez, D-Cicero, after passage of the Illinois legislative maps proposal on the floor of the Illinois House of Representatives at the Illinois State Capitol in Springfield, Ill., Tuesday, Aug. 31, 2021.

This concept of being void from the beginning is very strong in Illinois. So if the Republicans can convince a state court that this map had problems from the beginning, then there is a legal doctrine in Illinois to kind of throw the whole thing out from the beginning.

In my opinion, this is not a 100% Democratic map yet because they still have a lot of legal obstacles.

Also, I'm really surprised that the Democrats didn't do anything with Latino districts. The Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund, I think, has a meritorious lawsuit.

And they didn't work with these Latino districts at all. You can actually argue that these Latino districts got worse with the revision. So, that's something that they're going to have to litigate in court. And, if I was the Speaker or the Senate President, I would want to avoid that. So I'm a little puzzled why they didn't try to appease a lot of the concerns from these Latino interest groups.

LEE: Expand upon how some of these various communities of interests did in this map. The phrase that the Democrats have used repeatedly is that the map is "a model for the nation" when it comes to diversity. Does this map, especially given some of the legal challenges from some of these Latino groups, stand up to that billing?

CALABRESE: The Democrats ... spoke about that in May, but I have not really heard that from them recently because I think there's an acknowledgement that this is not about increasing community representation of certain interest groups.

So this map helps Black representation as much as you can, but that's kind of almost a byproduct of helping out Democratic incumbents.

The Arab and Palestinian community, they presented their own version of a map, they attended every legislative hearing that I observed, and they got absolutely nothing. Their community, which is based in the southwest suburbs of Cook County, was divided in the four Democratic House seats. And there's really no way for the Palestinian community to elect one of their own They wanted an influence district and they didn't get it.

The reason is because these districts were made to preserve the incumbents. That's first and foremost protecting and enabling Democratic incumbents, and that comes at the expense of a lot of these other minority groups that were advocating for their own districts.

Also, the Orthodox Jewish community, they were advocating for a district that included their community. By and large, they got some of what they wanted, but their community still split among three districts on the far North Side of Chicago.

So I think it's very hard to market this as a model for the nation. What it is is a very good map for political power, and I'm impressed with some of the districts they put together in terms of maintaining power in Springfield. And, at the end of the day, that's what matters for the people that drew these maps.

LEE: Were there any trends you noticed in the drawing of downstate districts?

CALABRESE: So downstate, there was a lot of aggressive packing of Republican incumbents with each other. And then there were some crafty drawing with Bloomington-Normal to make that a Democratic district.

I think Democrats left some on the table, per se, with how they drew Champaign-Urbana. So state Rep. Carol Ammons' district is like 80% Democratic, something crazy. A Republican wouldn't have a prayer winning that district. So Carol Ammons' district is super Democratic, but then there's a Republican district in Danville with Mike Marron in there which is like a 51% Biden district, which means (Marron) win at the local level.

So, the Democrats could have made Carol Ammons' district less Democratic and given those Democrats to the Danville district. They didn't do that. I thought that was kind of odd.

Another significant change is Rock Island that Senate seat is changing drastically, so it goes all the way down to Macomb. It takes in a lot of college towns. So, I think the Democrats are really crafty to change the Rock Island Senate seat ... I think that's going to be a pretty easy Democratic pickup.

The Democrats tried to make a far southern Illinois district more competitive the 118th. They combined Cairo with Carbondale with Marion. That district voted for Trump twice, but also voted for JB Pritzker, I believe. So it's one of those districts that will be competitive in a Democratic year.

LEE: During the last remap, there were still Democrats like Brandon Phelps and Gary Forby that represented some really rural, conservative areas. Whether through retirement or losing reelection, these members have gone away. How has this political realignment impacted the way Democrats drew the map?

CALABRESE: The most rural Democratic district right now is probably (state Rep. Lance Yednock's district), and they acknowledge that he's in trouble and they redistricted him to include DeKalb. And so now it's a bunch of union guys and a bunch of college kids.

So you're not going to see rural Democrats anytime soon, in my opinion. And I think the Democrats kind of gave up on them. But they did try to make the 118th competitive JB Pritzker did win that district. But again, that district is not Democratic because of a bunch of rural farmers who want to vote Democratic, it's Democratic because there's a significant Black population in Cairo and there's a lot of college kids in Carbondale. It's not the Democratic district of Paul Simon and Glen Poshard. Trump really took that out.

And in the suburbs, Lake County, I remember that being a very Republican County. And now, Republicans are really on the retreat. There's Republican areas in Lake County, but there's no countywide Republican officeholders, I believe. DuPage County has one now. But both Lake County and DuPage County, the county boards are Democratic.

So, yeah, there's this realignment. I think the new map reflects that. I'm of the opinion that Republicans can still make up areas in the suburbs. But when it comes to rural areas, I just think Democrats are are largely extinguished. I don't really see that coming back. I just think the cultural divides' too high.

LEE: So an example of this would be the Springfield-Decatur Senate seat, formerly represented by Andy Manar and now by Doris Turner. The new map cuts out rural Macoupin and Montgomery counties and adds more urban parts of Springfield.

CALABRESE: Right. So Manar's district, I get a lot of grief actually from Democrats when I say Manar's district is a likely Republican pickup.

From my experience, appointed incumbents don't do anything for an incumbent advantage. And that district significantly voted for the Republicans in every significant election. So that's going to be a really tough race for Doris Turner. And they tried to help her out. They gave her every urban precinct that she possibly could get, but it's going to be an uphill, uphill battle.

LEE: So, despite being a challenging map, Republicans have some pickup opportunities.

CALABRESE: I think that the Republicans can pick up a DuPage County seat. I think they can pick up Doris Turner's seat and the Metro East district, which is represented by Rochelle Crowe, that voted for Trump twice. It also voted for Erica Harold. It did vote for JB Pritzker, they have a very strong union influence there.

So I think that district is going to be really dependent upon if Crowe runs for reelection. She's on the shortlist to be U.S. Attorney. So if she does get appointed U.S. attorney, I believe that's a very good opportunity for Republican pickup in the Senate.

Republicans, I think, could pick up seats in the Senate just because Democrats are overextended, I mean it's really crazy. They have 41 seats in the Senate. As a translation, that would be 82 seats in the House, where Democrats have 73.

LEE: Any parting thoughts?

CALABRESE: Overall, I would give the map high marks on maintaining Democratic power in Springfield, which obviously was in my opinion one of their highest priorities.

If I was to draw this map with the goal of solidifying a Democratic supermajority, this is the map I would draw. If I was to draw a map to help every community of interest that wanted help, this is not the map.

The Democrat-controlled Illinois General Assembly approved 665 bills this legislative session, with the vast majority awaiting Gov. J.B. Pritzker's signature.

But, Pritzker has signed 42 bills into law. A handful of those will take effect Jan. 1, 2022, but most went into effect immediately upon signing or will take effect this Thursday.

Here are some notable new laws in effect now or on Thursday that Illinoisans should know.

With pandemic-related delays to U.S. Census redistricting numbers, lawmakers moved back the state's 2022 primary election from March 15 to June 28. The legislation also makes Election Day a state holiday, requiresevery county to have at least one universal voting centerand allow people to be added to a permanent vote-by-mail list. (SB825)

Some pandemic-induced changes to voting for the 2020 general election, such as vote-by-mail and curbside drop-off, will now be permanent features of future elections. (House Bill 1871)

As they are tasked with doing every 10 years, lawmakersapproved new district boundaries for the Illinois House and Senate. The Democrat-drawn maps, which utilized the U.S. Census' American Community Survey instead of waiting for the decennial census numbers that will arrive later this year, have been challenged in court by Republicans and some other groups. (HB2777)

The seven-person Illinois Supreme Court's district boundaries were successfully redrawn for the first time since the 1960s. (SB642)

There was no more controversial bill that passed this year than House Bill 3653, also known as the SAFE-T Act, which passed during the lame duck session this January. The provisions ending cash bail and requiring all police to wear body cameras will not take effect until 2023 and 2025, respectively. But starting Thursday, police will be required to render aid to the injured, intervene when a fellow officer is using excessive force and and be limited in use of force. It also offers stricter guidelines for the decertification of officers and would allow people to file anonymous complaints of police misconduct. (HB3653)

Lenders are now prohibited from charging more than 36% annual percentage rate on consumer loans. The average rate in Illinois was nearly 300% prior to the law's signing. (SB1792)

Tucked into the state's fiscal year 2022 budget is $10 million for a "vaccine lottery." All Illinois residents vaccinated by July 1 will be automatically entered into the contest. It includes$7 million in cash prizes to vaccinated adults, ranging from $100,000 to $1 million, and $3 million in scholarship awards to vaccinated youth. (SB2800)

Created guidelines for distributing more than $1 billion in federal stimulus funds for COVID-related housing relief. Alsocreates automatic sealing of evictions during the pandemic. (SB2877)

Victims in personal injury and wrongful death cases will be allowed to collect interest from defendantsfrom the time a lawsuit is filed. It is meant to incentivize settlement of these cases. It was supported by the trial lawyers and opposed by business groups. (SB72)

All casino applicants in Illinois are now required to enter into a project-labor agreement when seeking a new or renewed license. (SB1360)

Provides that a victim's criminal history or felony status shall not automatically prevent compensation to that victim or the victim's family. Extends the applicant's period for submitting requested information to 45 days from 30 days and provides that a final award shall not exceed $45,000, up from $27,000, for a crime committed on or after August 7, 2022. (HB3295)

Provides that a contract, record, or signature may not be denied legal effect or enforceability simply because it is in electronic form or an electronic record was used in its formation. Provides that if a law requires a record to be in writing, an electronic record satisfies the law. (SB2176)

Brenden Moore is the Illinois state government reporter for Lee Enterprises.

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Excerpt from:
What an Illinois redistricting expert thinks of Democrats' new maps - Bloomington Pantagraph