New York Times | How Impeachment Could Help the GOP, Not the Democrats New York Times A constituent at a town hall in Arizona last month had a message for Jeff Flake, a Republican senator: Don't be too chicken to stand up to party leaders. Credit Ralph Freso/Getty Images. To the Editor: Re It's Chicken or Fish (column, May 17):. Thomas L. |
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How Impeachment Could Help the GOP, Not the Democrats - New York Times
Steny Hoyer and Nancy Pelosi arrive to a joint session of the U.S. Congress with President Trump on Feb. 28, 2017 in the House chamber of the U.S. Capitol in Washington, DC.Alex WongGetty Images
Congressional Democrats have seen a hefty fundraising boost during the early months of the Trump Administration.
In the first five months of 2017, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee raised $20 million in online contributions, more money than it did online in all of 2015, when it raised $19.7 million.
There have been 156,000 first time donors since Jan. 1, and the average gift has been $18, the DCCC confirmed to TIME.
" People are sick and tired of out-of-touch House Republicans who are giddy at the prospect of ripping health insurance away from their constituents but too incompetent to get anything done on behalf hardworking Americans. Our record smashing grassroots, online fundraising haul is further evidence that House Democrat s are on offense while Republicans are in a full meltdown," said DCCC spokesman Tyler Law.
The DCCC's counterpart, the National Republican Congressional Committee said it raised $46 million total in 2017 so far, and raised more in the first quarter of 2017 than in 2015, but said it doesn't break out small dollar donations.
The DCCC's fundraising numbers are just one of several instances where Democrats have raised money since Trump's election. In the special election to fill former Rep. Tom Price's seat, Democratic candidate Jon Ossoff raised a record $8.3 million, the Atlanta-Journal Constitution reports.
And on Monday, former Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton announced she was launching a PAC titled "Onward Together" to help fund liberal causes and politicians.
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Congressional Democrats Smash Online Fundraising Record - TIME
Catherine Nadeau was never a supporter of Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, but as a resident of historically conservative Orange County she had never bothered to get involved in local politics either.
Donald Trumps surprise presidential win changed that.
This has been a wake-up call for me that its very important, that you need to vote locally, Nadeau, 48, said as she and two dozen district residents waved signs about climate change outside Rohrabachers office on a recent sunny Tuesday. I cant do anything about getting Trump out right now, but I can do something in the next 567 days to get this guy out.
Nadeau is among the newly energized residents giving Democrats hope they can claim at least some of the congressional seats in Orange County that have been red for a generation. Despite the vocal optimism from activists and local dissatisfaction with Trump, it will be an uphill battle for Democrats to flip the four heavily Republican congressional districts in Orange County, all but one of which the incumbent won in 2016 by double digits.
More than a dozen resistance groups have formed in Orange County since the presidential election. Theyve demanded meetings with the four Republican members of Congress, and staged town halls in their name when the members decline. Theyve delivered petitions and Valentines and even protested outside the members homes. Most Tuesdays, at least a few dozen people show up with signs outside district offices (some of which theyve been told they can no longer enter).
Theyre bolstered by the fact that last fall marked the first time Orange County chose a Democrat for president since 1936, a gradual decline in voters registering as Republicans and growing numbers of Latino and Asian voters.
So, 17 months before the 2018 election, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is making Irvine ground zero for its efforts in western states, with a full-time staff member brought in to help with races.
The four targeted Republicans are Reps. Ed Royce of Fullerton, Mimi Walters of Irvine, Dana Rohrabacher of Huntington Beach and Darrell Issa of Vista. They have been among the most lambasted after Republicans voted to roll back the Affordable Care Act.
Though the minority party historically wins seats in midterm elections, the national Democratic Party faces a tough path to flip the 25 districts it needs to reclaim majority control of the House in 2018.
Fewer and fewer congressional districts are considered competitive, so districts where the political parties think they have a chance such as places where voters picked a member of Congress from one party and a president from another can expect to see a lot of action in the coming months. (Radio and online attack ads are already running in Orange County.)
Seven of the 23 congressional districts that sent a Republican to the House and also picked Hillary Clinton for president are in California.
They need to cast a wide net for opportunities, and as soon as Donald Trump lost Orange County that set off some sirens at the DCCC, said Nathan Gonzales, editor of the nonpartisan political analysis site Inside Elections.
Perhaps Republicans just didnt like Trump, Gonzales said. That doesn't make them liberals.
I just dont know that we can throw away a couple of generations of history, of election results, after one race, he said.
Except for president, Republicans won the majority of other races in Orange County, all the way down the ticket. The states voters rejected a ballot measure to require voter approval of revenue bonds, but the county voted 57.1% in favor. A vote signaling opposition to the Citizens United decision allowing money to flood into politics passed statewide but garnered just 46.6% in Orange County.
Republicans still lead voter registration here, though they make up less than 45% of registered voters in any of the targeted congressional districts.
Democrats have managed to narrow the registration gap over the last four years from 10 percentage points to 3.7 points, and they'll have to continue to chip away if they want to win seats. Almost a third of voters are registered as having no party preference, and Democrats are hoping to leverage independent voters to win. As one activist pointed out, the majority of voters in Orange County dont back the Republican Party, and might be willing to go in a new direction.
Orange County Democratic Party Chairwoman Fran Sdao said she has never experienced anything like this enthusiasm. The number of local Democratic clubs has nearly doubled since the election, and her phone rings off the hook with people asking what they can do to help.
I don't think any of us could have predicted this surge in interest," she said. Were kind of in uncharted territory."
Thats already attracted four Democrats challenging Rohrabacher, three in Walters district, two for Issa and one for Royce. Sdao said about a dozen more people have expressed interest in running.
Which candidate has the best chance to grab a Republican seat? Narrowing the field may be the most delicate part of Democrats balancing act. The national Democratic Party has a history in California of backing candidates who can raise a lot of money but dont always have strong local ties.
The first hints of that habit are popping up in Walters 45th District, where the national party appears more excited about UC Irvine associate law professor Dave Min over UC Irvine law professor Katie Porter, who has been active with the local resistance groups. Both Democrats have started making appearances at the protests outside of Walters office.
After this story was published, a spokesman for the DCCC said the party supports all the Democrats in the race. And at the local level, Sdao said Democrats arent picking favorites just yet. They just need to go out there and talk to people, Sdao said. Were just going to hope they weed themselves out a little bit.
Democratic strategist Mike Trujillo said Democrats have a better chance of flipping seats in the Central Valley, where theyve trained operatives and built a political infrastructure over years of challenging the regions Republicans. In 2016, voters reelected Reps. David Valadao (R-Hanford) and Jeff Denham (R-Turlock) but also backed Clinton for president.
I dont believe you have that same cohort of field organizers that have been trained in Mimi Walters district, or Dana Rohrabachers district, Trujillo said. When you have the infrastructure in place like we do in the Central Valley it just gives you the edge and it makes the chances of flipping those districts even better.
Democrats have to set their sights on more seats than they expect to win, and that probably includes some of the long-shot Orange County seats, he said.
You sort of have to over-target if we really want to flip the House. You cant just go after the 25 seats that we need, he said.
Flipping seats held by the other party for generations with 17 months of investment isnt a light lift, said California Republican strategist Jason Cabel Roe.
In his Irvine law office, Orange County Republican Party Chairman Fred Whitaker seemed pleased by the idea of Democrats aiming to win local races.
Let them spend their money, Whitaker said with a laugh. If they are spending all their money here where were going to win, then that allows us to win in other places where Democrats might have a chance across the nation.
He noted that Rohrabacher won reelection in 2016 by 16.6%, Royce by 14.4% and Walters by 17.2%. Even in the closest race, where Issa eked out a win over a novice opponent with 0.6%, or 1,621 votes, the congressman performed strongly in the Orange County section of the district.
Whitaker also dismissed the activists as the same group of people moving from district office to district office.
Orange County doesnt respond real well to mass protests, Whitaker said. It does nothing but help us.
California 45th organizer Amy Stevens smiled at Whitakers take.
Thats OK. I would love for them to continue to think that way, because that will mean that they wont fight hard enough and it gives us an even better chance, the 43-year-old from Mission Viejo said.
Stevens joined two dozen people to march from Walters Irvine office to a nearby intersection to wave signs. At protests throughout the county, people told the same story: They didnt realize how many of their neighbors were frustrated with Republicans until after the election and the womens marches that took many by surprise the day after the inauguration.
Stevens, a lifelong Democrat, said she respected Walters experience as a local volunteer and even voted for the Republican in her first race.
We were all really complacent before this election, thinking that we lived in safety and things werent that bad in Orange County, Stevens said. People who lived here just sort of assumed it was red and the Democratic Party assumed it was red too. I dont think there was very much effort made to make any change.
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Read more about the 55 members of California's delegation at latimes.com/politics
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UPDATES:
9:45 a.m.: This article was updated with a comment from the DCCC on the 45th District candidates.
This article was originally published at 12:05 a.m.
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Jolted by Trump, Orange County Democrats see a shot at victory on GOP turf - Los Angeles Times
Congressional Democrats have unified around calls for an independent investigation into Russian involvement in the 2016 presidential election, but theyre split over whether to talk publicly about the possibility that President Trump will face impeachment.
Party leaders have warned against getting ahead of the facts. But Trumps abrupt decision to fire FBI Director James Comey, and allegations that Trump pressured Comey to drop a federal investigation into former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn have pushed some Democratic lawmakers to go further. A small but vocal group of lawmakers are now either explicitly calling for Trump to be impeached, or suggesting that impeachment may loom in the not-so-distant future.
On Wednesday morning, Democratic Representative Al Green of Texas took the dramatic step of publicly urging Trumps impeachment in a speech on the House floor. The president must be impeached, he said, alleging obstruction of justice as his reason.
Last week, Trump fired Comey, who was then the official charged with overseeing the bureaus investigation into potential links between Trump associates and the Russian government. The White House initially claimed Comey was dismissed over conduct during the 2016 election related to the FBIs investigation into former Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton. But two days later, the president told NBC News that he thought to himself this Russia thing with Trump and Russia is a made up story, when he made the decision.
Then on Tuesday, the New York Times reported that Trump attempted to halt the FBIs investigation into Flynn, who was ousted after falsely asserting he had not discussed sanctions with Russian ambassador Sergey Kislyak. The White House has denied that the president ever told Comey to end the investigation.
For now, a number of unanswered questions remain. Initial reports that Trump attempted to halt an investigation into Flynn cited a memo created by Comey that has not yet surfaced publicly. There are currently efforts underway in Congress to find out exactly what did happen between Trump and Comey.
The House Oversight Committee, as well as the Senate Intelligence Committee, and the Senate Judiciary Committee, have requested the Comey memos, and the former FBI director has been asked to testify in front of Congress. It may take some time before a fuller picture emerges of exactly what transpired. And as colleague Matt Ford has noted, legal scholars have emphasized that more information, and further investigation, would be necessary to conclude that the president had obstructed justice.
In his floor speech, Green, however, offered this summary of events: We are talking about a president who fired the FBI director who was investigating the president for his connections to Russian involvement in the presidents election.
Democratic party leaders, however, have not joined in the call for impeachment, and are actively warning against invoking the concept without first understanding exactly what transpired between the president and the former FBI director.
Thats not something that we should be rushing into, or rushing to suggest, Representative Adam Schiff, the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, which is also probing Russian involvement in the election, told CNN in an interview, adding that would be a wrenching experience for the country.
Though even in arguing for a thorough accounting before rushing to judgement, Schiff engaged in speculation: We need to get to the bottom of what took place ... Was he trying to shut down a legitimate prosecution? Was he doing it because ultimately he was worried the trail might lead back to him?
Dianne Feinstein, the top Democrat on the Senate Judiciary Committee, has also reportedly urged caution, arguing that the I-word should be off the table for now, as The Daily Beasts Tim Mak put it on Wednesday.
Despite the message from the Democratic leadership that its too early to talk impeachment, at least some Democrats, particularly in the House, believe theres no need to wait.
Democratic Representative Maxine Waters has been publicly raising the possibility of impeachment for some time now. On Tuesday, Waters argued that Democrats shouldnt be afraid to use the word impeachment, at a conference hosted by the left-leaning think tank the Center for American Progress, and delved into the topic again.
Waters noted, however, that shes gotten pushback for bringing it up. This president is one that I have focused on in ways that some people say, oh my god, she said the word impeachment, oh my goodness its too soon to say that, Waters said. But, she added, we dont have to think impeachment is out of our reach.
The risk for the Democratic Party is that the more its lawmakers invoke the idea of impeachment, the more frequently Democrats who dont want to talk about the possibility will be asked to weigh in. Democrats facing tough reelection races in red states and conservative congressional districts in the 2018 midterms may prefer not to answer that question.
If Democrats get too far out ahead in making claims about what they believe investigations into Russian involvement in the election may produce, they risk losing credibility if the evidence that emerges dont support the charges they make, or the speculation they engage in.
Its not just House Democrats wading into a discussion about impeachment.
On Tuesday, Independent Senator Angus King was asked on CNN if Congress could be moving toward impeachment. Reluctantly I have to say yes, simply because obstruction of justice is such a serious offense, he said, though he later sought to clarify that, telling Maine reporters, there are a lot of facts that we need to establish.
Even Republican Representative Justin Amash of Michigan has invoked impeachment, telling reporters that if Comey memo allegations are true, its grounds for impeachment, according to The Hills Katie Bo Williams.
In an interview on Monday, House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi took pains to argue that she doesnt subscribe to talking about impeachment absent a clear case.
If youre talking about impeachment, youre talking about, what are the facts?, she said during a CNN town hall event on Monday, prior to the report that Trump attempted to intervene in the Flynn investigation. What are the facts that you would make a case on? What are the rules that he may have violated? If you dont have that case, youre just participating in more hearsay.
Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer has similarly called for sticking to the facts. My view is we need a thorough investigation and we need to get all the facts and then well come to conclusions. Our step now is to get a thorough investigation, he said on Tuesday.
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Democrats Are Split Over Impeachment - The Atlantic
A who's who of prospects for the Democratic 2020 presidential nomination -- none declared, of course, but none ruling national ambitions out, either -- will appear at a daylong event hosted by the Center for American Progress.
The liberal think tank's first-ever "Ideas Conference" is poised to allow those vying to lead the party to test-drive their economic messages and arguments a year and a half before any of them would actually have to head to Iowa and New Hampshire to campaign.
Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren is set to deliver the lunchtime keynote, while New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker will deliver the closing speech. Also on tap -- and seen as potential 2020 candidates -- are New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, California Sen. Kamala Harris, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy and Oregon Sen. Jeff Merkley.
From the executive ranks, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti will open the event, while Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe and North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper are also set for speaking roles.
Other leading Democrats, including House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, liberal mega-donor Tom Steyer, Gold Star father Khizr Khan and influential activists are slated to appear.
The event comes as the Democratic Party -- energized by a protest movement unlike anything the party has seen for decades -- searches for new voices at its forefront.
Former President Barack Obama has departed the political stage for now, and former Vice President Joe Biden told a crowd recently that he will not run in 2020.
It's left Democrats facing a nominating contest much more like 2004, when John Kerry emerged from a wide-open field, or 2008, when Obama bested Hillary Clinton and John Edwards, than recent contests with well-established incumbents or front-runners.
By this stage in those cycles, prospective candidates "were working pretty hard at it" behind the scenes, said Bob Shrum, a veteran of Democratic campaigns, including Al Gore's in 2000 and Kerry's in 2004.
"There's a lot more happening behind the scenes in terms of folks maneuvering to line up fundraisers, political talent, how they're going to put a campaign together," Shrum said.
So at a cattle call like Tuesday's, he said, "you want to do well."
"First of all, you have to stand up to Trump -- visibly, consistently and cogently -- on everything from health care to tax fairness to the Russia investigation," he said. "Two, articulate a compelling message on economic and social justice, and you can't choose one over the other."
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has by far the largest megaphone of any Democrat -- and his massive email list built in 2016 would give him a huge fundraising advantage. But Sanders would also be 79 years old on Election Day 2020.
For other potential candidates, the 2018 midterm cycle is more important. It's an opportunity to curry favor with House members and senators on the ballot this cycle by campaigning and raising money for them while also elevating their own profiles and meeting local party honchos, said Mitch Stewart, a founding partner of 270 Strategies and a veteran of Obama's campaigns.
Stewart argued cattle calls are "less important now" than they were in 2004 and 2008 -- in part because social media tools like Twitter allow more opportunities for potential candidates to reach wide swaths of the party's electorate. He pointed to Booker's Twitter account during his tenure as Newark mayor as an example.
But events like Tuesday's also offer potential candidates opportunities to test-drive a message that reaches beyond an energetic base, Stewart said.
"What I haven't really seen any of the potential Democratic candidates do is put out a positive message that can try to break the bond that Trump has with some of his voters," he said.
"And I think right now, it's just good to have activism, it's good to have energy," he said. "But at some point, a candidate's going to have to channel that energy into something a bit more constructive and talk about how Democrats offer a different economic vision that can peel off some of these voters that were sort of duped by Trump."
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Democrats set for first view of potential 2020 candidates - CNN