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March 17, 2022

In this issue: Former Minneapolis Council member challenges Ilhan Omar and a hypothetical matchup poll shows Kathy Hochul and Andrew Cuomo about even

California Attorney General Rob Bonta (D) faces Republican and independent challengers in the states top-two primary. Politicos Jeremy B. White said the attorney general race could be the most consequential contest in the deep-blue state a bellwether of Democratic voters commitment to criminal justice reform.

White wrote that two of Bontas primary opponents, Sacramento County District Attorney Anne Marie Schubert (independent) and former U.S. Attorney Nathan Hochman (R), have sought to connect Bonta to two California district attorneys facing recall efforts this year: Los Angeles County D.A. George Gascn and San Francisco D. A. Chesa Boudin.

White said, District attorneys wield far greater influence than the attorney general over whom to prosecute and what sentences to seek. But Schubert and Hochman argue Bonta should have used the power of his office to rein in progressive prosecutors.

The Boudin recall is on the June 7 ballot, and signature gathering is underway in the Gascn recall effort. Organizers of the recall campaigns allege that each D.A.s policies led to an increase in crime. Bonta endorsed Gascns D.A. bid and worked with Boudins office on legislation when Bonta was in the General Assembly.

Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) appointed Bonta in 2021 after Attorney General Xavier Becerra (D) became U.S. secretary of Health and Human Services. Bonta served in the General Assembly from 2012 to 2021, where his record included co-writing bills to end cash bail and requiring the attorney general to investigate fatal police shootings of unarmed people.

Bonta says he holds those who break the law especially those in positions of power accountable and that in his first 100 days as attorney general, he won a settlement for families harmed by opioids, defended an assault weapons ban, and prosecuted major polluters.

Hochman says he will protect our neighborhoods, get fentanyl off our streets, get tough on crime, and find compassionate solutions to homelessness.

Schuberts campaign slogan is Stop the chaos. She says shell step in and take over cases from district attorneys when those district attorneys are not protecting Californians.

Republican Eric Early is also running. He says, It is time for someone new, an outsider who supports law enforcement and wants a California with low crime, good schools, thriving businesses, secure borders, fair elections, a strong Second Amendment, and government overregulation out of our lives.

California has had Democratic attorneys general since 1999.

Former Minneapolis City Council member Don Samuels announced his Democratic primary bid for Minnesotas 5th Congressional District. Samuels says incumbent Rep. Ilhan Omar (D) has demonstrated shes out of touch with the residents of Minneapolis in the last election, referring to her support for a 2021 ballot measure to replace the citys police department with a Department of Public Safety. Voters rejected the measure 56%-44%.

Omars campaign said in a fundraising email following Samuels announcement, [Samuels] was one of the most vocal opponents of a ballot amendment in Minneapolis that would have established a public safety system rooted in compassion, humanity and love, and delivering true justice. We cant let him win and put a stop to all our work for progress.

Samuels was part of a group of residents who sued the city in 2020 alleging it did not have enough police officers to meet the city charters requirements. A Hennepin County judge ruled in favor of the group in 2021, ordering the city to hire more officers. On Monday, the Minnesota Court of Appeals reversed the decision, stating that the mayor is responsible for determining police staffing levels.

Samuels also criticized Omars vote against the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021. Omar was one of six Democrats to vote against the bill. Samuels said, Too many D.C. politicians find their success through the division and purity politics that have defined our era, and, unfortunately in this case, Rep. Omars position was quite literally my way or the highway, a position that fails to recognize the tremendous infrastructural needs of our community.

Omar said in November, I have been clear that I would not be able to support the infrastructure bill without a vote on the Build Back Better Act. Passing the infrastructure bill without passing the Build Back Better Act first risks leaving behind childcare, paid leave, health care, climate action, housing, education, and a roadmap to citizenship.

The Star Tribune reported that Joe Radinovich, who managed Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Freys successful re-election campaign last year, is managing Samuels campaign.

Samuels served on the city council from 2003 to 2014. He then served a term on the Minneapolis Board of Education from 2014 to 2018. Omar was first elected to the U.S. House in 2018. She served in the state House of Representatives from 2017 to 2019.

U.S. Reps. Sean Casten and Marie Newman are both running in Illinois 6th Congressional District Democratic primary as a result of redistricting. Both have garnered endorsements from members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus (CPC), of which Newman is a member and Casten is not.

Most recently, Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.), deputy chair of the CPC, endorsed Casten. CPC Chair Pramila Jayapal has endorsed Newman.

In addition to Porter, 14 U.S. representatives have endorsed Casten, including four CPC members. Seven U.S. representatives in addition to Jayapal have endorsed Newman, six of whom are CPC members. The Progressive Caucus PAC endorsed Newman.

Forty-one percent of the newly drawn 6th Districts population comes from the old 3rd District, which Newman currently represents. Twenty-three percent comes from the old 6th District, which Casten represents.

Casten was first elected to the House in 2018 and won re-election in 2020 by 7 percentage points. Newman was first elected in 2020, defeating then-U.S. Rep. Dan Lipinski in the Democratic primary by 3 percentage points before winning the general election by 13 percentage points.

The primary is scheduled for June 28.

As of the end of Februaryeight months before the general election45 members of the U.S. House had announced they would not seek re-election. At the same time in the 2020 election cycle, 34 representatives had announced they wouldnt seek re-election. That number was 46 in 2018.

Emerson College and The Hill released a poll showing that in a hypothetical primary matchup, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) had 37% support and the incumbent she replaced, former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D), had 33%. The poll had a +/- 4.3 percentage point margin of error.

U.S. Rep. Tom Suozzi had 7%, New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams had 4%, Paul Nichols had 2%, and 16% were either undecided or voting for someone else.

Cuomo resigned during his third term last August after New York Attorney General Letitia James (D) released reports on investigations into Cuomos handling of the coronavirus in nursing homes and accusations of sexual harassment. Cuomo made his first public remarks since leaving office on March 6, saying that no legal charges were brought against him. A week later, Cuomo released an ad in which he says, I havent been perfect, Ive made mistakes, but I also made a difference. Ive never stopped fighting for New Yorkers, and I never will.

AdImpact reported on Tuesday that Cuomos campaign committee had spent $2.4 million on ads since he left office, including a new buy to run from March 16 to March 25. Cuomo has not made any announcements regarding another run for political office.

Emerson College/The Hill also asked respondents who theyd vote for between current gubernatorial primary candidates, which showed Hochul at 42%, Williams at 10%, Suozzi at 7%, Nichols at 5%, and 36% either undecided or voting for someone else.

The poll surveyed 504 registered Democratic voters and was conducted March 9-10.

The filing deadline is April 7, and the primary is scheduled for June 28.

On March 8, North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) endorsed Val Applewhite, who is challenging incumbent state Sen. Kirk deViere in the Democratic primary for Senate District 19. Cooper said Applewhite isnt afraid to stand up to Right Wing Republicans.

DeViere said, This primary challenge is a direct result of putting my community over partisan politics and not being a rubber stamp.

DeViere, first elected in 2018, was one of four Democrats who voted for a version of the 2021 state budget that the Republican majority supported. Among the items other Senate Democrats, along with Cooper, disagreed with Republicans on were raises for teachers and noncertified school employees. Cooper called for 10% teacher raises and a $15 minimum wage for noncertified employees. The Senate budget called for 3% teacher raises and a $13 minimum wage for noncertified employees. All four Senate Democrats who supported that version of the budget served on the committee responsible for negotiating a final budget with Cooper.

DeViere and Applewhite were candidates in the nonpartisan election for Fayetteville mayor in 2013. Applewhite finished first in the primary with 44% and DeViere was third with 20%. Applewhite lost the general election to Nat Robertson 50.5%-49.4%.

Ed Donaldson is also running in the Democratic Senate District 19 primary. The primary is scheduled for May 17 and will be open to registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters only.

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Heart of the Primaries 2022, Democrats-Issue 14 Ballotpedia News - Ballotpedia News

Thirteen state government trifectas are vulnerable in 2022, according to Ballotpedias annual trifecta vulnerability ratings. Democrats are defending seven vulnerable trifectas and Republicans are defending six.

The Democratic trifectas in Delaware and Washington are highly vulnerable. Neither of those two states are holding gubernatorial elections in 2022 but in both states, Democrats have a five-seat or less advantage in the state Senate. Democratic trifectas in Colorado, Maine, and Nevada are moderately vulnerable. Two Democratic trifectasIllinois and Oregonare considered somewhat vulnerable.

Arizona is the only highly vulnerable Republican trifecta this year. The governors race is currently rated as a Toss-up, and Republicans have a one seat majority in both the state House and Senate. Three Republican trifectas in Georgia, New Hampshire, and Texas are classified as moderately vulnerable. The Republican trifectas in Florida and Iowa are somewhat vulnerable.

Ballotpedia also assessed the chances of new trifectas forming in states that are currently under divided government. According to our methodology, states that qualified as a possible Democratic trifecta pickup are Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, and North Carolina, while Republicans have pickup chances in Alaska and Kansas. In Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, both parties have the opportunity to establish a state government trifecta.

A state government trifecta occurs when one party holds the governorship and majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. There are currently 23 Republican trifectas and 14 Democratic trifectas. The remaining 13 states have divided governments.

Thirty-six states are holding gubernatorial elections this year and 88 of the countrys 99 state legislative chambers will hold regularly-scheduled elections.

Ballotpedia calculates the chances of trifectas breaking and forming by evaluating each trifecta component individually and assessing the chances of them changing control. We base our evaluations of gubernatorial races on ratings fromThe Cook Political Report,Inside Elections, andLarry Sabatos Crystal Ball. We assess state legislative chambers according to the absolute number of seats up for election and the proportion of seats that would need to flip for partisan control to change, evaluating both chambers in a states legislature individually.

The 2020 elections resulted in Republicans gaining two trifectasin Montana and New Hampshireboth of which had divided government at the time of the election. In 2021, Republicans in Virginia broke what had been a Democratic trifecta by winning the governorship and control of the House of Delegates. Between 2010 and 2021, 73 state government trifectas were broken or gained.

Additional reading:

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Democrats defending seven vulnerable trifectas this year, Republicans defending six Ballotpedia News - Ballotpedia News

Near the end of that year, it was much sadder: Dec. 7, 1941, a date which will live in infamy.

F.D.R.s outstanding speech-writing team included Harry L. Hopkins, Samuel I. Rosenman, Adolf A. Berle Jr., Benjamin V. Cohen and the Pulitzer Prize-winning playwright Robert Sherwood, all masters of the power and emotional resonances of words.

My advice to President Biden: Ask playwrights and writers like Lin-Manuel Miranda, Aaron Sorkin, James Patterson, Sarah Ruhl and others if they have some ideas for Democratic messaging.

Susan DunnWilliamstown, Mass.The writer, a professor of humanities at Williams College, is the author of 1940: F.D.R., Willkie, Lindbergh, Hitler: The Election Amid the Storm.

To the Editor:

When the Democrats policies fail to generate popular support, they inevitably chalk it up to poor messaging. The problem, however, is not that they lack a pithy, bumper sticker worthy marketing message for their programs.

The problem is what they are trying to sell: excessive regulation that drives up prices and discourages innovation; social welfare policies that largely benefit the wealthy and harm those they are supposed to help; and crony-capitalist subsidies for politically favored constituencies.

If Democrats think a new slogan is needed, they could do worse than President Clintons declaration in his 1996 State of the Union address: The era of big government is over.

Kenneth A. MargolisChappaqua, N.Y.

To the Editor:

So the Democrats are on the hunt for a catchy bumper-sticker slogan to replace Build Back Better and bring them success in the midterms.

Continued here:
Opinion | The Road Ahead for the Democrats: Here Are Some Directions - The New York Times

Philadelphias Democratic Party brass came off the sidelines and endorsed U.S. Rep. Conor Lamb in his Senate campaign.

The vote by most of the citys ward leaders Tuesday night solidified Lambs status as the establishment-favored candidate in Pennsylvanias largest city, as he wages an uphill fight in the May 17 primary.

We had a voice vote and you could hear it, it was overwhelming, Bob Brady, the former congressman who leads the Democratic City Committee, said of Lambs support. The endorsement was made in a voice vote rather than a roll call.

Hes racking up a lot of endorsements, a lot of labor support, Brady said. So hes got a lot of bragging rights right now.

Lamb is from the Pittsburgh suburbs, but with the endorsement, his name will now be on many of the sample ballots that Philadelphia Democrats distribute outside polling stations around the city. Brady called Lamb the best candidate to win in November. And he said he likes the idea of a nominee from Western Pennsylvania, since Attorney General Josh Shapiro, who is running for governor, is from the Philadelphia suburbs.

While Lt. Gov. John Fetterman leads the Democratic primary field in polls and fund-raising, Lamb has built a statewide coalition of party supporters, leaning into the insider track. Philadelphias building trades unions and Mayor Jim Kenney endorsed him in January.

Lamb fell short of the state partys endorsement after campaigning hard for one.

Im proud to be endorsed by the Philadelphia Democrats, Lamb said in a statement. In countless conversations, they told me that Philadelphia is counting on us to win this race and break the gridlock on issues like gun violence, housing and schools.

READ MORE: Conor Lambs challenge: Build his name. Take down Fetterman. And do it all with less money.

Former Philadelphia Mayor John Street and his son, State Sen. Sharif Street, also endorsed Lamb on Tuesday. Sharif Street had previously considered running for Senate himself.

Conor Lamb has built a big coalition all over Pennsylvania, and Im glad to join it, Sharif Street said in a statement. Hes a fighter who knows what it takes to win against Republicans in November hes actually done it before.

Taken together, the endorsements are a notable snub of the hometown candidate, State Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta, who had also tried to court party insiders but has struggled to raise money. Its also a somewhat expected snub. Sharif Street, who is vice chair of the state Democratic Party and from North Philadelphia like Kenyatta, had bristled at Kenyattas Senate campaign.

The city party has often passed over Philadelphia candidates in endorsing for statewide races, including in 2020, when it backed Lambs uncle in his bid for auditor general.

The only endorsement that truly counts is the one from voters on Election Day, Kenyatta said in a statement. We know that every election that wards go their own way and were excited to know that many wards and committee people will be a part of our big coalition in May. I have never been the candidate of the establishment and that is not the path to winning this election.

READ MORE: Conor Lamb and John Fetterman are running like Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders

Kenyatta built some momentum early in the city with the backing of the big labor union SEIU and a coalition of progressive, younger City Council members. Brady spoke highly of Kenyatta but said his meager fund-raising and low standing in polls made many ward leaders skeptical of his prospects.

Malcolm did a good job but people didnt think Malcolm could win, Brady said. Thats the only problem with him. Hes well-received, we just didnt think the numbers were there. The money wasnt there.

Brady also said Kenyattas decision to run for Senate while also seeking reelection to his state House seat turned off some party activists.

Lamb, Kenyatta, and Fetterman all submitted signatures to get on the Democratic primary ballot, along with Philadelphia doctor Kevin Baumlin and Alex Khalil, a Jenkintown organizer and small business owner.

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Philly Democrats back Conor Lamb for Senate over the front-runner and the hometown candidate - The Philadelphia Inquirer

This week, Volodymyr Zelenskiy addressed Congress, thanking them for their support so far, but imploring them to do more. He spoke to Joe Biden directly, as it seems its the White House, not Congress, that is hesitant about provoking Russia further. How the US responds to the war in Ukraine will influence voters at home when midterm elections take place in November. It will be a tough campaign for Biden, and yet many Democrats are retiring from the House instead of fighting for their seat.

Jonathan Freedland speaks to one of the Democrats choosing to retire. Congresswoman Brenda Lawrence shares her thoughts on the war in Ukraine, why she chose to leave office, and who in the Republican party worries her the most for 2024.

How to listen to podcasts: everything you need to know

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Why are House Democrats leaving Congress in a midterm year? Politics Weekly America podcast - The Guardian