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In their Democratic presidential primary, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders had a heated debate in 2016 about what "progressive" means. Even now, it's not totally clear. Melina Mara/The Washington Post via Getty Images hide caption

In their Democratic presidential primary, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders had a heated debate in 2016 about what "progressive" means. Even now, it's not totally clear.

A particular question had been quietly rolling around in my head for years one that I finally started thinking harder about lately: When did the word "progressive" creep into my news stories?

More specifically, I started thinking more about it when I covered an Ohio Democratic congressional primary last month a primary in which the candidates and voters talked a lot about who was more "progressive" (and whether being "progressive" is a good thing).

"If you ask someone that's a little bit farther to the right, they may say I'm a progressive," said Shontel Brown, the winner of the primary. "If you ask someone who's a little more further to the left, they'll say I'm a moderate."

And, to be upfront, I myself used the word "progressive"...er...liberally throughout the piece.

But then, the word is so widely used that its meaning depends on the user. To track its recent rise is to tell a story about the divisions currently within the Democratic Party, as well as how far it has (and hasn't) shifted leftward in recent years.

According to a quick NPR archives search, the network's usage of the word to describe Democrats really skyrocketed in 2018, after picking up in 2016 and 2017. That's also the trend that major U.S. newspapers followed, according to my own news database searches. And it's not just that left-leaning politicians became more plentiful the word "liberal," for example, didn't pick up in the same way in descriptions of Democrats. In fact, "progressive" virtually caught up to it in the last few years.

Not only that, but a 2018 analysis from the center-left Brookings Institution found that Democratic candidates identifying as "progressive" picked up then and the word has held on since then.

All of which led me to hypothesize that Bernie Sanders and his 2016 presidential campaign might have something to do with it. So I asked Faiz Shakir, Sanders' former campaign manager in 2020, about the word. And he gave me a surprising answer.

"I'll be honest with you, I don't use the term 'progressive,' " he said. "If somebody calls me 'progressive,' I'm fine; I'm not going to run away from it. But I do tend to think it has lost a lot of meaning."

To Shakir, economic policies that prioritize individuals over corporate interests are progressive. That means there's nuance in his definition: for example, he says he would consider the relatively moderate Montana Democratic Sen. Jon Tester a progressive.

But Shakir also thinks the term has been stretched beyond its roots.

"Over time, what has happened was the word 'progressive' became so popularized that it started to basically encapsulate everything in the Democratic Party," Shakir continued. "It almost became synonymous with, in my mind, the Democratic Party the Democratic Party is progressive, progressive is the Democratic Party."

In U.S. history, the word often refers to the Progressive Era in the early 20th century, when activists advocated for a variety of reforms some were economic, like the fight for greater regulation of industry, and some were social, like the fight for women's suffrage and prohibition. But even then, the movement contained a variety of beliefs.

These days, it's not hard to find a range of definitions of the word. Consider two D.C. institutions located just blocks from each other: the Progressive Policy Institute, a centrist think tank founded in 1989 by the also-decidedly moderate Democratic Leadership Council, and the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, an advocacy organization that backed Elizabeth Warren in 2020.

To Adam Green, co-founder of PCCC, "progressive" has valences of populism, boldness, and fighting the establishment.

Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren was a favorite among further left Democrats in the 2020 presidential primaries. Mark Ralston/AFP via Getty Images hide caption

Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren was a favorite among further left Democrats in the 2020 presidential primaries.

"Progressive means challenging power, whether that means challenging corporate power on behalf of workers or whether that means challenging systemic racism," Green said. "It fundamentally boils down to being willing to challenge power on behalf of the little guy."

For Michael Mandel, chief economic strategist at the Progressive Policy Institute, progressivism also has something to do with growing the economy.

"One strand is anti-corporate and anti-corruption. But at the same time, progressive also has a strand meaning pro-growth, pro-innovation and pro-jobs," he said. "Progress is both social progress, but it's also economic progress."

Mandel, for example, thinks that the antitrust bills that passed a House committee this summer impede economic progress and therefore are not "progressive." (Further complicating this, however, is the fact that prominent self-proclaimed progressives, including Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Pramila Jayapal, supported those bills.)

It does seem true that "progressive" in popular usage has come to mean something closer to "relatively-left-leaning" than what Mandel is saying often in today's politics, "progressive" and "liberal" are often simply used interchangeably. (Relatedly, there's some imprecision in how the word "liberal" is used, as Graham Vyse argued in the Washington Post earlier this year.)

Clearly self-proclaimed "progressives" had been around for a long time: the Progressive Policy Institute launched in 1989. The Congressional Progressive Caucus started in 1991. The PCCC was founded in 2009.

But the question is why "progressive" gained steam in recent years.

"I think there was a lexical gap, basically, meaning that we had need of a word that we didn't have," said Nicole Holliday, a linguist at the University of Pennsylvania.

Holliday also happened to volunteer for Barack Obama's presidential campaign as a college student in 2008. And she saw a bump in the usage of the word around that time.

"I started to see a lot of people that I knew get frustrated because they felt like he wasn't as far to the left as they had expected," she said. "And so I think there were on the ground just some sort of people saying, 'You know, I don't really identify so much with what I think the Democratic Party stands for, or what mainstream liberals stand for.'"

That means the word "liberal" has been assailed over the years not only by the right, by Republicans who effectively made the word into an insult, but also the left, by anti-establishment left-leaners who wanted to distinguish themselves from other Democrats.

Rep. Pramila Jayapal, D-Wash., is chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. She has backed anti-trust legislation opposed by some centrists in her party, as well as sweeping climate actions in the framework of the Green New Deal. Shannon Finney/Getty Images for Green New Deal hide caption

Rep. Pramila Jayapal, D-Wash., is chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. She has backed anti-trust legislation opposed by some centrists in her party, as well as sweeping climate actions in the framework of the Green New Deal.

The frustration with establishment Democrats like Obama the sense that they were insufficiently leftist and insufficiently bold in their policymaking in part set the stage for Bernie Sanders to run a liberal, anti-establishment candidacy, expanding the debate on a raft of issues to the left. He and Hillary Clinton sparred over the meaning of "progressive" at a 2016 debate, after Sanders said you couldn't be both a moderate and a progressive.

Clinton responded by claiming the progressive mantle: "In the very first debate, I was asked, 'Am I a moderate or a progressive?' And I said, 'I'm a progressive who likes to get things done.'"

Attempting to embrace the label was, for one thing, likely an attempt to latch onto the fervor for change that Sanders tapped into.

But to Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow at the center-left Brookings Institution, one big reason why a candidate like Clinton was trying to embrace the word may have been very practical.

"Let's face it: America is not a liberal country, nor is it a progressive country," she said. "And if you want to win elections and win hearts and minds, you had to come up with some better way to talk about it because you're outnumbered."

About one-quarter of Americans define themselves as liberals, according to Gallup, while more than one-third identify as conservative.

That may not seem like a huge difference, but it's meaningful in a key way, Kamarck says: Democrats have simply needed majority-moderate coalitions to win nationally.

"The Republican Party doesn't have to be quite as afraid of its conservative base as the Democrats have to be of their liberal base, because their conservative base has for the last four decades been much bigger than the liberal base," she said.

That said, the share of Americans who consider themselves "liberal" has grown, and the Overton window of policy ideas has stretched leftward, bringing ideas like "Medicare for All" into the mainstream.

While Democrats have embraced the term "progressive" and more liberal policy positions in recent years, their thin majorities in Congress give moderates like Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., lots of influence over the party's agenda. Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images hide caption

While Democrats have embraced the term "progressive" and more liberal policy positions in recent years, their thin majorities in Congress give moderates like Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., lots of influence over the party's agenda.

The word "progressive" has become a tool to appeal to those further-left-leaning Americans without alienating the moderates and independents who reject the "liberal" label.

Saying "progressive" dodges that L-word, Kamarck says: "It's an effort to shed a bad label. That's why, pure and simple."

That full coalition has only delivered Democrats razor-thin margins in Congress as the party tries to pass an infrastructure bill crafted by moderates and a larger budget package championed by further-left Democrats like Faiz Shakir.

"You know, literally all of the benefits that will go out will go almost entirely to like working class and lower income and middle class families across America," he said. "So, you know, that to my mind is a major progressive-era accomplishment."

But only if it passes. And right now, it's threatened by the huge power wielded by moderates. West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin says he wants his Senate colleagues to "pause" that bill ... and they need every Democrat to get it done, no matter how progressive they are.

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More And More Democrats Embrace The 'Progressive' Label. Here's Why - NPR

Gavin Newsom, governor of California, speaks during a campaign event at Long Beach City College in Long Beach, California, U.S., on Monday, Sept. 13, 2021.

Bing Guan | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Gavin Newsom survived a Republican attempt to remove him from office as California's governor, ensuring that the Democrat can serve out the rest of his term as the top official in the nation's most populous state, according to an NBC News projection.

With 66% of the expected vote in, Newsom led with 5,619,538 votes, or 65.8%, against removing him from office, compared with 2,916,257 votes, or 34.2%, in favor of the recall.

Polls for in-person voting closed at 11 p.m. ET on Tuesday. Voters had been submitting mail-in ballots for a few weeks ahead of time.

Speaking at a press conference late Tuesday, Newsom thanked his supporters and said "no is not the only thing that was expressed tonight."

"We said yes to science. We said yes to vaccines. We said yes to ending this pandemic. We said yes to people's right to vote without fear of fake fraud or voter suppression. We said yes to women's fundamental, constitutional right to decide for herself what she does with her body and her fate and future," he said.

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The gubernatorial recall effort was the second in California's history to qualify for the ballot, giving Republicans a chance to seize power in an otherwise deep-blue state.

Voters were asked two questions: should Newsom be replaced, and if he is recalled, who out of his 46 opponents in the election should take his place?

Newsom, who was elected by an overwhelming margin in 2018 to a term that would end in 2023, spent months trying to fend off the Republican-led effort that gained traction last year over allegations that he mishandled the state's response to the coronavirus pandemic.

Nearly 1.5 million Californians signed the recall petition due to frustrations over state-issued health orders and the appearance of a maskless Newsom at a dinner party during the height of surging Covid cases.

The recall effort became just one of the several crises that Newsom, steward of the biggest state economy in the United States, had to juggle in the past year, in addition to wildfires, drought, rising costs of living and, of course, the pandemic. Fresh data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show that Covid transmission rates in California are dropping, however.

Polling over the summer showed more of a tight race in the recall election but recently shifted in Newsom's favor.

His campaign drove turnout among complacent Democratic voters, who outnumber Republicans in the state's electorate by 2 to 1, as they gained a colossal lead in early mail-in ballot returns.

The governor had a huge money advantage over his opponents. He had a $70 million campaign war chest, and unleashed a flurry of anti-recall ads with prominent Democrats such as former President Barack Obama vouching for him to stay in office.

Newsom received a final push from President Joe Biden, who said at a rally Monday that the results of the election will be felt nationally, shaping the country's direction on climate change, the pandemic and even reproductive rights.

Biden also slammed conservative talk show host Larry Elder, the Republican front-runner of the election, describing him as a "clone" of former President Donald Trump.

Elder drummed up far more support than any of the challengers vying to succeed Newsom, holding a substantial lead over the rest of the field in recent polling. He vowed to reverse vaccination and mask mandates, and echoed Trump's false claims about widespread voter fraud in the 2020 elections, laying the groundwork for misinformation about the recall election.

A wide variety of personalities made up the other 45 candidates who fell short of gaining support from voters. Republican candidates include Caitlyn Jenner, a former reality TV personality and Olympic athlete, and John Cox, who has traveled to campaign events with a live Kodiak bear.

As for Democratic candidates, Hollywood actor Patrick Kilpatrick andYouTube millionaire Kevin Paffrath ran to succeed Newsom.

CNBC's Christine Wang contributed to this report.

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Democrat Gavin Newsom survives California recall election, will remain as governor - CNBC

OKLAHOMA CITY (KFOR) State democrats say theyre fighting back against the governor after he removed the only two physicians from the state Health Care Authority Board earlier this month.

Representative Monroe Nichols announced Monday that hes filing a bill that would restore legislative authority over that board.

It has become unmistakably clear that our governor is more focused on his political future, he said during a Tuesday press briefing. My Republican colleagues gave the governor this new power he abused it.

That power was granted to Gov. Stitt in 2019, when the legislature passed a package of bills that allowed the governor to make hiring and firing decisions for the heads of five state agencies.

Democrats, including Rep. Forrest Bennett, say this gives him too much power.

It is one thing to have that responsibility and oversight spread over several of us, Bennett said. Its another thing entirely to let one person whos very clearly focused on something else call the shots.

House Minority Leader Emily Virgin says she hopes they can continue to address this issue for the other four state agencies throughout the coming legislative session.

We do plan on making this an issue in the upcoming session, she said.

But republican lawmakers, like Sen. Ronnie Paxton, says its necessary for the governor to be able to hold these state agencies accountable.

I just dont see this as an improvement, Paxton said. I see this actually taking us back to the days where theres basically no accountability.

He adds that he would have voted for the 2019 bills regardless of whether the governor was a Republican or Democrat.

The governors office has since released a statement saying Democrats attempts to undo the governors agency reforms are an out-of-touch political stunt designed to score points with special interest groups and unelected bureaucrats.

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Oklahoma democrats seek to roll back governors staffing power over state agencies, starting with the Health Care Authority - KFOR Oklahoma City

House Democrats on Monday outlined a bevy of tax hikes on corporations and wealthy people to fund an investment in the social safety net and climate policy that could reach $3.5 trillion.

The plan calls for top corporate and individual tax rates of 26.5% and 39.6%, respectively, according to a summary released by the tax-writing Ways and Means Committee. The proposal includes a 3% surcharge on individual income above $5 million and a capital gains tax of 25%.

It's unclear how much the tax increases would raise and if the new revenue would offset the full investment in social programs. Democrats could ultimately cut the legislation's price tag as centrists balk at a $3.5 trillion total.

The tax proposals may change before Democrats craft the final bill they hope to pass in coming weeks. The Ways and Means Committee will debate tax policy when it resumes its markup of the mammoth spending package this week.

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Senate Democrats will also have their say in the tax proposals. Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.V., has called for a corporate rate of 25%, lower than the one favored by House Democrats. He has also expressed concerns about the plan adding to budget deficits.

The party will need votes from every member of the Senate Democratic caucus and all but three House Democrats. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., aim to pass the legislation through the budget reconciliation process without Republican support.

The House tax plan would not go as far as President Joe Biden initially hoped. The president had called for a 28% corporate tax and a 39.6% capital gains rate.

Biden has promised not to raise taxes on anyone who make less than $400,000 per year.

The House proposal would take huge steps to reverse the 2017 Republican tax cuts. It would hike the corporate rate to 26.5%, after the GOP slashed it to 21% from 35%.

Democrats would also restore the top individual rate to 39.6% after Republicans cut it to 37%.

The GOP has opposed the Democratic plan in part because of proposed changes to the 2017 law. Republicans also would not reverse any of the cuts as part of the Senate-passed bipartisan infrastructure bill.

Under the House Democratic plan, the top corporate rate would apply to income above $5 million. The first $400,000 in income would be taxed at an 18% rate.

A 21% rate would apply to corporate income between $400,000 and $5 million.

The plan would invest nearly $79 billion in IRS tax enforcement to increase revenue raised.

It would hike taxes on certain tobacco products. The proposal would also change or scale back certain deductions for high-income individuals and corporations to raise money.

The committee outline does not include a proposal to raise the $10,000 cap on state and local tax deductions set under the GOP law. A handful of Democrats from high-tax blue states such as New Jersey and New York have said they will oppose a reconciliation bill that does not raise the deduction limit.

In a joint statement Monday, Ways and Means Committee Chair Richard Neal, D-Mass., Rep. Bill Pascrell, D-N.J., and Rep. Tom Suozzi, D-N.Y., signaled House Democrats will address the cap in a future version of the tax plan.

"We are committed to enacting a law that will include meaningful SALT relief that is so essential to our middle-class communities, and we are working daily toward that goal," the representatives said. Suozzi and Pascrell are among the lawmakers who said they will only vote for a spending bill that raises the deduction limit.

Democrats plan to use the new revenue to fund expansions of child care, paid leave, pre-K education, community college, public health insurance plans, household tax credits and green energy incentives, among other investments.

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House Democrats propose new tax hikes to pay for their $3.5 trillion bill: Here are the details - CNBC

The marked decline in support for President BidenJoe BidenNewsom easily beats back recall effort in California Second senior official leaving DHS in a week Top Republican: General told senators he opposed Afghanistan withdrawal MORE and his administration nationally and in key swing states indicates that the Democratic Party could endure a blowout defeat in the 2022 midterm elections.

Moreover, Biden is in a significantly weaker position now than both of his most recent Democratic predecessors Bill ClintonWilliam (Bill) Jefferson ClintonBiden nominates ex-State Department official as Export-Import Bank leader Obamas, Bushes and Clintons joining new effort to help Afghan refugees 9/11 and US-China policy: The geopolitics of distraction MORE and Barack ObamaBarack Hussein ObamaGensler compares cryptocurrency market, regulations to 'wild west' We must mount an all-country response to help our Afghan allies Obamas, Bushes and Clintons joining new effort to help Afghan refugees MORE at this point in their presidencies, which suggests that Democrats could suffer even more substantial losses in 2022 than the party did in 1994 and 2010.

Indeed, voters nationally and in seven key swing states disapprove, rather than approve, of the job Biden is doing by a margin of 7 points or greater, according to a Civiqs survey released last week.

Nationally, 50 percent of voters disapprove of the job Biden is doing as president, while just 42 percent approve.

For reference, at the same point in Obamas first term, Obamas net approval rating was 19 points higher than Bidens is right now. At the time, a majority of voters (52 percent) approved of Obama, while 41 percent disapproved, according to a Gallup survey released on Sept. 13, 2009.

That being said, in the 2010 midterm elections, Democrats lost a net of 64 House seatsand Republicans gained six seats in the Senate.

Likewise, on Sept. 12, 1993, Clintons approval rating was recorded at 47 percent approve and 42 percent disapprove by a Gallup survey. To put that in context, Clintons net approval rating was 13 points higher than Bidens is at the same point in his presidency.

Yet in the 1994 midterms, Democrats lost a net of 52 House seats and Republicans picked up eight seats in the Senate.

To note, Democrats blowout midterm defeats in both 1994 and 2010 can be attributed in large part to their passage of massive spending and tax bills in the years prior.

The Democrats 1994 defeat came after they pushed through Congress the then-largest tax increase in history without any Republican support. And in 2010, Democrats lost due in large part to voters perception of an ineffective economic stimulusas well as governmental overreach on health care and the economy by the administration and congressional Democrats.

To note, a number of recent polls show that voters have grown increasingly negative on the Biden administrations handling of major domestic issues, including the economy, COVID-19, immigration at the southern borderand the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan.

And now, with congressional Democrats having approved a budget blueprint in their $3.5 trillion dollar spending bill which will bring massive tax increases and will likely increase the debt, deficit and inflation the electoral backlash against Democrats could be even more substantial than in both 1994 and 2010.

In addition to Bidens precipitous national decline, the presidents approval rating in key swing states, most of which he won in 2020, has dropped. This of course bodes poorly for Democrats 2022 prospects and also makes it increasingly likely that Biden will be a one-term president notwithstanding a dramatic turn of events in Democrats favor.

In five key swing states Georgia, Florida, Arizona, North Carolina and Pennsylvania voters disapprove, rather than approve, of the job Biden is doing by a 10-point margin or greater, according to the aforementioned Civiqs polls. To note, Biden won Georgia, Arizona and Pennsylvania in 2020 and narrowly lost North Carolina and Florida.

And in Michigan and Wisconsin two swing states that were once reliably Democratic, both of which Biden won in 2020 voters now disapprove of the presidents job performance by margins of 7 and 8 points, respectively.

It is noteworthy that, both nationally and in these key states, Bidens approval has been driven down in large part by independent voters. Though Biden won national independent voters handily in 2020, a majority (58 percent) now disapprove of the president, while just 31 percent approve.

This data is clearly troubling for Democrats especially when taken together with the fact that the mere circumstances of the 2022 midterms are challenging for the party. Republicans need to pick up just five House seats, and redistricting alone could cost Democrats close to or even more than that number.

Further, since World War II, only twice has the presidents party gained seats in the midterm elections in 1998 and 2002, when both presidents had approval ratings over 60 percent and, even so, saw only meager House seat gains.

Simply put, the current 2022 outlook for Democrats is grim and it could get even worse.

If the Biden administration continues to push unnecessarily big government spending initiatives and tax increases, along with weak immigration policies and an incoherent foreign policy strategy, Democrats could suffer the most substantial midterm loss of any party in recent history.

Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant who served as an adviser to President Clinton and to the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael BloombergMichael BloombergWithout drastic changes, Democrats are on track to lose big in 2022 Bidens, former presidents mark 9/11 anniversary The tragedy of 9/11 an inflection point in American history MORE. He is the co-author of a forthcoming book The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat."

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Without drastic changes, Democrats are on track to lose big in 2022 | TheHill - The Hill