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Republicans are ready to surf the red wave to control of Congress and state legislatures this November in what is looking like a particularly nasty midterm election cycle for Democrats.

"As the historic 2022 Red Wave builds and more Democrats run for the hills, I will continue to support strong, American First candidates as we work to Fire Nancy Pelosi once and for all and SAVE AMERICA!" Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York, the chairwoman of the House Republican Conference, said in a statement announcing a $10 million fundraising haul at the beginning of the year.

"With Biden underwater, a red wave is coming," Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel predicted in an op-ed. "As we look ahead to the 2022 midterm elections, Democrats have every reason to worry."

That's what you might expect two leading Republicans to say in their capacity as spokeswomen for the party in an election year. But nonpartisan prognosticators at National Journal forecast a "red wave" for Senate Democrats that could wash away a favorable map and the possibility of GOP primaries producing extreme challengers, submerging their narrow majority.

Republicans have history on their side this year. Between 1862 and 2014, the party holding the White House has managed to avoid losing House seats in the midterm elections just four times, according to an analysis by the Brookings Institution. The party in power has fared better in the Senate but has still lost seats two dozen times during that time period. Since 1938, the president's party has lost House seats in every midterm election but two 1998, when Republicans waged an unpopular impeachment gambit against Democratic President Bill Clinton, and 2002, when the 9/11 terrorist attacks galvanized the nation behind Republican President George W. Bush.

That's it. The rest of this history looks pretty ugly for the party of the president. Democrats lost 72 House seats under Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1938, then 44 in 1942, followed by a loss of 55 in 1946. Democrats shed 48 House seats in the 1966 midterm elections under Lyndon B. Johnson, while Republicans lost 48 in 1974 after Richard Nixon's resignation in the Watergate scandal.

In 1994, the first midterm election of Clinton's presidency, Republicans picked up 54 House seats for their first majority in that chamber in 40 years. Thirty-four incumbents were unseated, all Democrats, including the sitting speaker of the House for the first time since 1863, the chairman of the Ways and Means Committee, and the 42-year incumbent who led the House Judiciary Committee. Democrats also lost control of the Senate with the defeat of two incumbents and a Republican sweep of six open seats.

Bush avoided the midterm curse in 2002 but was unsuccessful four years later. In the 2006 midterm elections, Democrats gained 31 seats, giving Nancy Pelosi the speaker's gavel for the first time. Democrats similarly gained five seats in the Senate. Republicans added 63 House seats in Barack Obama's first midterm election in 2010 and then captured the Senate in his second one in 2014, with a net gain of nine seats. Pelosi's second stint as speaker began after Democrats gained 41 House seats under Donald Trump.

Bush called it a "thumpin'," Obama a "shellacking." Clinton had to assure reporters that the Constitution still made him relevant. Presidents have trouble holding Congress for their party, especially when they're unpopular.

And Biden is unpopular: An ABC News/Washington Post poll found more strongly disapproved of his performance (44%) than approved to any degree (37%). His overall disapproval rating stood at 55%.

Predictably, Republicans led the generic congressional ballot by 49% to 42%. When asked about the GOP acting as a check against Biden, this rose to 50% to 40%, a 10-point Republican advantage.

Democrats have two remaining hopes. The first is that Republicans fail to capitalize on a highly favorable environment because their divisions and primary results favor less electable candidates. This kept the GOP from controlling the Senate until midway through Obama's second term. The other is that the election is still months away, and the pandemic, inflation, and Russia-Ukraine could all look better by November.

But with each new crisis, the public perception of Biden as a competent leader fades. The longer those attitudes persist, the more difficult they are to change.

Moreover, Republicans don't really need a red wave. The Senate is split 50-50. The Democratic edge in the House is five seats. A trickle could cost them their majorities. No wonder Republicans think the water's just fine.

Original Location: Democrats wave their majorities goodbye

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Democrats wave their majorities goodbye | US & World | denvergazette.com - The Denver Gazette

It hasnt aired yet, but I want to share with you the political ad that could win the 2022 midterm elections for the Democrats even with all the doom and gloom about President Bidens approval rating and all the historical trends that favor the GOP. For reasons that will be clear in a minute, Im not using the candidates name.

The TV spot starts with one of the most dramatic and best-known soundbites in American history: the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. at the Lincoln Memorial in 1963, proclaiming, I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character. The ad then switches to the candidate, dressed smartly but casually not in a fleece vest, though! and sitting in front of a blackboard in a school classroom. He looks into the camera.

I want an America where every child learns those words and what they mean, the candidate says. Thats why I was shocked when my opponent and other Republicans in our state voted for a bill that would keep American heroes like Martin Luther King [picture of King on the Selma-to-Montgomery march] and Rosa Parks [shot of Parks, sitting on a city bus] out of our schoolhouses. Im sick and tired of the politicians trying to ban books from our libraries and gag our teachers in their classrooms. Thats not just wrong its straight-up un-American.

Then, a tone shift as images from the war in Ukraine, including everyday citizens defending their homeland against Russian invaders, fill the screen. We are all inspired by people around the globe, fighting for their freedom. Its time we fight for democracy here in the United States. I want to make it easier for you to vote, not harder. Lets make our schools about learning, not censorship. The music begins to swell, with emotional frames of voters, kids in classrooms. Im running for Congress to fight to protect the American way.

Theres a reason you havent seen this TV spot yet, even if youre a political obsessive like me. It hasnt been filmed, and given the tortured history of Democratic Party political thinking and strategy over the last 40 years it might never be. I made it up, because I think the political party that for all its well-documented flaws wants to take the United States forward instead of backward into some Stone Age of white supremacy is missing a golden opportunity to push a message that connects with a majority of Americans.

We all know the conventional wisdom about what is certain to happen when the nation votes in November. The historical precedent is that the party holding the White House gets clobbered, as happened to Donald Trump in 2018 and Barack Obama in 2010 a notion now cemented by President Bidens low approval rating and voter unease over high levels of inflation. Yet often the lofty conventional wisdom fails to notice changes at ground level.

The post-2020 Census reapportionment process that was supposed to give an added edge to Republicans didnt actually do that. More important, the current political zeitgeist is radically different than it was during 2021s off-year elections in Virginia, Florida, and other states. For one thing, the news is dominated by shock and outrage over Vladimir Putins barbaric invasion of Ukraine a constant reminder of Donald Trump and other top Republicans who spent years as Putin apologists, or worse, as well as the risks of authoritarianism over democracy. But perhaps more important, Republicans who saw some gains last year running against education that addresses racism or LGBTQ rights now seem guilty of a major overreach.

The extent of that GOP overreach can be seen both in the sheer number of bills that Republicans are introducing in statehouses across America so-called gag orders about what teachers can say in their classrooms at a rate of roughly three a day, according to PEN America, as well as outrageous local examples, like the Tennessee school board that pulled the anti-Holocaust graphic novel Maus out of the curriculum. Now, there is polling evidence that most Americans dont like what they are seeing.

Last month, a CBS News poll found resounding majorities of voters oppose any kind of book bans for example, 83% say that books should never be banned for criticizing U.S. history and also support classroom teaching about racism or other historical topics, even those with the potential to make some students uncomfortable. Basically, the CBS News respondents acknowledged that America has made some progress on racial issues but also believe that racism persists and that these issues should be discussed in classrooms. Thats very much the opposite of what TV pundits are saying, as well as the trend of GOP governing in the nations red states.

There is a tendency, or course, to write off polling data on sensitive topics around race. Arent there some voters who say one thing to a pollster and behave differently in the voting booth? But lets look at the politician who in 2021 became the avatar of the fight over antiracism education, Virginias new Republican governor, Glenn Youngkin. Taking office in January, Youngkin surprised voters with some of his extreme actions, which including a Day One executive order aimed at eliminating divisive concepts from classrooms, and even a tip line for parents to report on their kids teachers. The result? After little more than a month in office, Youngkin is already under water, with just 41% of Virginians approving of his performance and 43% disapproving.

READ MORE: War in Ukraine demands that all of us pick a side: democracy or decadence | Will Bunch

Clearly, theres an opportunity here for Democrats. The partys inclination in recent times is to go after voters with a rational appeal rather than an emotional one. In 2022, Democrats conundrum is that despite a slew of positive data around job creation and the broad economy, most voters say they arent feeling it, and theyre concerned about inflation and high gas prices. In todays climate, the best pitch for Democrats is an emotional one that the Republicans are the party of banning books and gagging teachers. Could anything be more against American values, the ones our grandfathers fought for in World War II?

Theres already evidence, unfortunately, that this will be a road not taken by the Democrats. Consider Bidens approach in his nationally televised State of the Union address Tuesday. Although the speech had its positive moments spotlighting Bidens role in building a global alliance against Putin was a no-brainer it was also marked by missed opportunities. For one thing, in trying to pivot to a bipartisan center, Biden offered next to nothing for the under-30 and nonwhite voters who put him over the top in 2020. But also, the presidents unity message failed to link the issue thats suddenly on the minds of most voters the battle for liberty in Ukraine with the fight to preserve democratic values here at home.

It was also striking, in fact, that Biden made no mention of the traumatic moment in American history the Jan. 6 insurrection on Capitol Hill, with new evidence every day that this was a coup attempt that happened just 14 months ago. That plot was orchestrated by a sitting Republican president to thwart the peaceful transfer of power after losing an election. The new bipartisan vibe apparently requires tossing Jan. 6 down a memory hole, but that might not be the wise strategy for winning the next election. It may be smarter to tap into the outrage over a party that tried to overturn an election, played footsie with a Russian dictator, and believes it has a mandate for a new McCarthyism.

The so-called Reagan revolution that created a cloud of self-doubt over the Democratic Party was nearly two generations ago. Yet party messaging largely remains dominated by reaction and fear rather than boldness. Those fears seem rooted in a panic that progressive values will be seen as less American when the reality is that ideas like academic freedom, preventing censorship, and a belief in inquiry, including science, are the core beliefs of this nation. Its past time for President Biden and other leaders of the Democratic Party to approve this message.

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Heres the message that wins the midterms for Democrats, if theyre not afraid | Will Bunch - The Philadelphia Inquirer

Americans tuning in to President Bidens State of the Union address on Tuesday could be forgiven for thinking that Democrats have decisively won the cultural war over abortion rights. In a speech that clocked in at just over an hour, Biden studiously avoided using the word abortion a single time. His only reference to abortion rights came in passing.

The constitutional right affirmed by Roe v. Wade, standing precedent for half a century, is under attack as never before, Biden said. If we want to go forward, not backward, we must protect access to health care. Preserve a womans right to choose.

What constitutional right affirmed by Roe v. Wade? A womans right to choose what? In too many situations, the right to choose has become a phrase without an ending the final, crucial word omitted to satisfy political strategists who believe the Republican myth that even uttering the word abortion will spell electoral doom.

The State of the Union was Bidens biggest opportunity to reset that received wisdom and rally the Democratic base by condemning fully and clearly the GOPs scorched-earth war on women.

The situation is acute. On one side, the Supreme Court is likely to hand down a decision on Texass restrictive new abortion law later this year that legal experts argue would effectively end abortion rights as we know them. On the other, Senate Democrats fell short this week in their effort to codify abortion protections into law. There has never been a more urgent time to mobilize the nearly 60 percent of Americans and one third of Republicans who support legal abortion.

Republicans have good reason to try and dissuade Democrats from making abortion a major issue in the upcoming midterm elections: a Hart Research survey of Americans in 11 states found that when elections focus on abortion, voters support Democrats over Republicans by 71 points. And in the suburbs that decided the 2016 and 2020 presidential contests, voters are deeply wary of an America without Roe v. Wade. If Republicans lose those suburban voters because they chose to burn down abortion rights, their electoral victory path practically disappears.

We need to stop equating peoples discomfort with talking about sex, sexuality, gender identity, abortion all of these things pregnancy, with the political opinions or where the country is at, We Testify Executive Director Renee Bracey Sherman told TIMEs Abigail Abrams. Bracey Sherman is right; for all the GOPs doomsaying about the political suicide of mentioning abortion, the Republican position is out of step with the majority of the nation and even with a growing number of self-identified conservatives. Theres a reason House Republican hopefuls have been eager to talk about anything but abortion.

For every other issue, he painted a picture of what hell do to rebuild America, from electric-car charging stations and high-speed internet, BraceySherman said of Biden. But he refuses to build back better for abortion.

Biden and Democrats shouldnt relegate the historic fight over abortion rights to an afterthought. It should instead be the centerpiece of an ambitious Democratic effort to build a new political coalition that realigns suburbs out of the GOPs orbit. For a party badly in need of unity after a year that saw surprisingly public displays of intra-party hostility, making the midterms a referendum on abortion offers a path forward that energizes base voters and party activists across racial, ethnic, age and class lines. In addition to being the morally right thing to do, shaking up the electoral map is smart politics and one of the few ways Democrats can hope to escape a bludgeoning in November.

Its clear from Bidens remarks that he understands Roe is under direct assault, and any Democratic approach must be about more than just politics. Around the nation, but especially in Texas, women are facing an unprecedented stripping of their fundamental legal rights. They pleaded to their elected officials, but to no avail. They took their case all the way to a Supreme Court that took the extraordinarily unusual step of allowing Texass draconian law to remain in effect while the court considered the case.

Democrats should not be ashamed to make abortion a major issue. For millions of women across the country, it is the major issue. An unexpected or unwanted pregnancy in a post-Roe America will determinemany other factors in their lives. Its time Democrats found their voice and unified once again to protect abortion rights in America.

MaxBurnsis a Democratic strategist and founder of Third Degree Strategies, a progressive communications firm. Follow him on Twitter @themaxburns.

Continued here:
Democrats must find their voice on abortion rights | TheHill - The Hill

The nominations for President Joe Biden's Democratic appointments to the Federal Communications Commission and Federal Trade Commission advanced at the committee level Thursday, bringing them closer to help implement Biden's technology and telecommunications agenda.

The Senate Commerce Committee deadlocked 14-14 along partisan lines to advance the confirmation of FCC nominee Gigi Sohn, a prominent liberal activist and a former Democratic staffer at the commission, and FTC nominee Alvaro Bedoya, a Georgetown University law professor and prominent privacy advocate. Still, their nominations will move to the Senate floor, where Vice President Kamala Harris can provide the tiebreaking vote for Democrats if necessary.

The shortage of personnel at both agencies has hampered Democrats from moving forward with their ambitious antitrust, broadband, and telecommunications agendas.

Sohn and Bedoya are expected to face hurdles and procedural difficulties getting confirmed on the Senate floor because of Republican opposition to their nominations, causing the deadlocked vote Thursday.

Senate Republicans strongly oppose Sohn's confirmation, criticizing her as a left-wing ideologue who would favor heavy-handed regulation threatening censorship of conservative speech and for her alleged conflicts of interest.

THE SURPRISING GROUP OF CONSERVATIVES WHO SUPPORT BIDEN'S LEFT-WING FCC NOMINEE

Sohn also favors net neutrality, stronger government regulation of the broadband industry, and the breakup of Big Tech companies.

She would be the third Democrat on the commission, a five-member agency regulating the TV, radio, and telecommunications industries and ensuring broadband internet access. Democrats have lacked a majority despite Biden becoming president at the beginning of last year.

Biden's FTC nominee, Bedoya, who founded the Center on Privacy and Technology at Georgetown, has been at the forefront of research into how facial recognition technology and other surveillance tools have been used by the government and tech companies to discriminate against immigrants and minorities.

Bedoya previously worked as a staffer for Democratic Sen. Al Franken of Minnesota on the Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on Privacy, Technology, and the Law.

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If confirmed, Bedoya would strengthen the Democratic majority at the FTC by giving a 3-2 advantage during commission votes related to the regulation of Big Tech companies and on questions related to antitrust, data privacy, and security.

Original Location: Democrats closer to full control of tech regulators as Biden nominees advance

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Democrats closer to full control of tech regulators as Biden nominees advance - The Denver Gazette

Citing the financial toll that the pandemic has taken on many Connecticut residents, progressive Democratic lawmakers and advocates on Thursday renewed calls for higher taxes on the states wealthiest.

While Gov. Ned Lamont, planning re-election this year, opposes raising more revenue from the rich, the legislative Finance, Revenue and Bonding Committee, during a day-long, virtual public hearing, heard impassioned calls for the highest earners to pay more for state services.

Republicans on the tax-writing panel oppose the three bills that are the focus of the progressive push, including an added tax on houses worth more than $1.2 million; a capital gains surcharge of one percent on the sale or exchange of assets; and a permanent Earned Income Tax Credit of 41.5 percent of the federal EITC.

As our country and our state continue to recover from the brutal physical and emotional trauma of COVID-19, we cannot forget the financial toll it has taken on many of us, especially our working poor and middle-class wage earners who have borne the brunt of the economic crisis, said Senate President Pro Tempore Martin Looney, D-New Haven, who submitted all three bills. Meanwhile, many at the high end of the income scale have prospered like never before.

Under questioning from committee members, Looney quoted non-partisan legislative staff who estimated that the one-percent capital gains surcharge would generate about $131 million in annual revenue.

Similar bills in recent years failed, except for an increase in the EITC, which Looney and Speaker of the House Matt Ritter this week vowed to make permanent at 41.5 percent. Last year the committee approved a so-called consumption tax that would have hit Connecticuts wealthy, but the proposal died without action in the biennial budget-setting process.

Ed Hawthorne, president of the state AFL-CIO, said that while people such as Connecticuts 13 billionaires have gained wealth during the pandemic, most of the rest of the state has struggled.

Hundreds of thousands of working people, especially working people of color and our essential workers that went to work every day saw their lives upended, Hawthorne said. The ultra-wealthy have been allowed to rig the rules in their favor for years. Theyve skirted their responsibility to fund our schools, our education infrastructure, healthcare programs and other vital public services.

He also supports a 10-percent tax on digital advertising on corporations with income over $10 billion, to bring in about $140 million in new revenue.

Like other speakers in favor of the bills, Hawthorne had a digital backdrop of the Recovery for All CT, an umbrella group of faith, community and labor organizations, behind him as he spoke.

Across Connecticut, regardless of our race, gender, income level, or town in which we live, we have all pulled together to navigate the pandemic and its ensuing financial devastation. But not all of us suffered equally, said Beverly Brakeman of West Hartford, regional director of the United Auto Workers, Region 9A, which has 30,000 members in New England, New York City, and Puerto Rico.

In 2022, we remain a state of vast inequality despite being one of the wealthiest states in the nation, she said. This is not something of which we should be proud because the result of such disparity is despair and suffering. We see this vast inequality play out every day in income, wealth, housing, food security, health and health care outcomes, education, and access to public services.

The lowest earners of our state are paying 26 percent of their income to state and municipal taxes, while those making $1.6 million and above are only paying 6.67 percent, said state Rep. Kara Rochelle, D-Ansonia, whose district includes part of Derby. This is obviously incredibly unfair and creates a deep burden that goes beyond just the numbers. She said her district includes 12,463 households classified as the working poor. These are folks living from paycheck-to-paycheck and cannot even afford a $500 crisis.

The Connecticut Business and Industry Association testified against the legislative proposals. It is clear that towns and cities cannot rely solely on property taxes and inconsistent state aid to fund essential services and often mandated programs, the CBIA said in prepared testimony. Adding 2 mills to high-end homes is not the answer.

Republican push back on the committee was led by lawmakers including Rep. Devin Carney of Old Lyme and Rep. Laura Devlin of Fairfield.

I just think we give certain urban leaders a pass when policies that they put into place that negatively affect students and I think they did during this pandemic, Carney said during an exchange with Brakeman, who had pointed out the disparity between school systems in wealthy suburbs and those of the inner cities. I think, honestly, those leaders have gotten a pass for a long time. Coming to the Finance Committee and asking for us to make changes in the things that happen in Hartford and New Haven may be a little bit short-sighted.

I would say that I think what this committee can do, with your charges, is to look at the system of taxation, which is not fair, Brakeman replied. And that is a way to equalize how we mete out our education, housing and all those kinds of services.

Devlin during an exchange with a representative of state certified public accountants, warned that the wealthy can easily leave the state if they believe taxes are too high.

This years short, 12-week session that ends at midnight on May 4, is focused on adjusting the second year of the budget, which starts on July 1. Lamont wants to focus on property tax credits, a statewide tax rate for motor vehicles that would lower taxes for many, as well as ending income taxes for pension income.

kdixon@ctpost.com Twitter: @KenDixonCT

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Progressive Democrats, unions, again push for higher taxes on CTs wealthiest - CT Insider