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Democrats defending seven vulnerable trifectas this year, Republicans defending six Ballotpedia News – Ballotpedia News

Thirteen state government trifectas are vulnerable in 2022, according to Ballotpedias annual trifecta vulnerability ratings. Democrats are defending seven vulnerable trifectas and Republicans are defending six.

The Democratic trifectas in Delaware and Washington are highly vulnerable. Neither of those two states are holding gubernatorial elections in 2022 but in both states, Democrats have a five-seat or less advantage in the state Senate. Democratic trifectas in Colorado, Maine, and Nevada are moderately vulnerable. Two Democratic trifectasIllinois and Oregonare considered somewhat vulnerable.

Arizona is the only highly vulnerable Republican trifecta this year. The governors race is currently rated as a Toss-up, and Republicans have a one seat majority in both the state House and Senate. Three Republican trifectas in Georgia, New Hampshire, and Texas are classified as moderately vulnerable. The Republican trifectas in Florida and Iowa are somewhat vulnerable.

Ballotpedia also assessed the chances of new trifectas forming in states that are currently under divided government. According to our methodology, states that qualified as a possible Democratic trifecta pickup are Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, and North Carolina, while Republicans have pickup chances in Alaska and Kansas. In Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, both parties have the opportunity to establish a state government trifecta.

A state government trifecta occurs when one party holds the governorship and majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. There are currently 23 Republican trifectas and 14 Democratic trifectas. The remaining 13 states have divided governments.

Thirty-six states are holding gubernatorial elections this year and 88 of the countrys 99 state legislative chambers will hold regularly-scheduled elections.

Ballotpedia calculates the chances of trifectas breaking and forming by evaluating each trifecta component individually and assessing the chances of them changing control. We base our evaluations of gubernatorial races on ratings fromThe Cook Political Report,Inside Elections, andLarry Sabatos Crystal Ball. We assess state legislative chambers according to the absolute number of seats up for election and the proportion of seats that would need to flip for partisan control to change, evaluating both chambers in a states legislature individually.

The 2020 elections resulted in Republicans gaining two trifectasin Montana and New Hampshireboth of which had divided government at the time of the election. In 2021, Republicans in Virginia broke what had been a Democratic trifecta by winning the governorship and control of the House of Delegates. Between 2010 and 2021, 73 state government trifectas were broken or gained.

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Democrats defending seven vulnerable trifectas this year, Republicans defending six Ballotpedia News - Ballotpedia News

Opinion | The Road Ahead for the Democrats: Here Are Some Directions – The New York Times

Near the end of that year, it was much sadder: Dec. 7, 1941, a date which will live in infamy.

F.D.R.s outstanding speech-writing team included Harry L. Hopkins, Samuel I. Rosenman, Adolf A. Berle Jr., Benjamin V. Cohen and the Pulitzer Prize-winning playwright Robert Sherwood, all masters of the power and emotional resonances of words.

My advice to President Biden: Ask playwrights and writers like Lin-Manuel Miranda, Aaron Sorkin, James Patterson, Sarah Ruhl and others if they have some ideas for Democratic messaging.

Susan DunnWilliamstown, Mass.The writer, a professor of humanities at Williams College, is the author of 1940: F.D.R., Willkie, Lindbergh, Hitler: The Election Amid the Storm.

To the Editor:

When the Democrats policies fail to generate popular support, they inevitably chalk it up to poor messaging. The problem, however, is not that they lack a pithy, bumper sticker worthy marketing message for their programs.

The problem is what they are trying to sell: excessive regulation that drives up prices and discourages innovation; social welfare policies that largely benefit the wealthy and harm those they are supposed to help; and crony-capitalist subsidies for politically favored constituencies.

If Democrats think a new slogan is needed, they could do worse than President Clintons declaration in his 1996 State of the Union address: The era of big government is over.

Kenneth A. MargolisChappaqua, N.Y.

To the Editor:

So the Democrats are on the hunt for a catchy bumper-sticker slogan to replace Build Back Better and bring them success in the midterms.

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Opinion | The Road Ahead for the Democrats: Here Are Some Directions - The New York Times

Philly Democrats back Conor Lamb for Senate over the front-runner and the hometown candidate – The Philadelphia Inquirer

Philadelphias Democratic Party brass came off the sidelines and endorsed U.S. Rep. Conor Lamb in his Senate campaign.

The vote by most of the citys ward leaders Tuesday night solidified Lambs status as the establishment-favored candidate in Pennsylvanias largest city, as he wages an uphill fight in the May 17 primary.

We had a voice vote and you could hear it, it was overwhelming, Bob Brady, the former congressman who leads the Democratic City Committee, said of Lambs support. The endorsement was made in a voice vote rather than a roll call.

Hes racking up a lot of endorsements, a lot of labor support, Brady said. So hes got a lot of bragging rights right now.

Lamb is from the Pittsburgh suburbs, but with the endorsement, his name will now be on many of the sample ballots that Philadelphia Democrats distribute outside polling stations around the city. Brady called Lamb the best candidate to win in November. And he said he likes the idea of a nominee from Western Pennsylvania, since Attorney General Josh Shapiro, who is running for governor, is from the Philadelphia suburbs.

While Lt. Gov. John Fetterman leads the Democratic primary field in polls and fund-raising, Lamb has built a statewide coalition of party supporters, leaning into the insider track. Philadelphias building trades unions and Mayor Jim Kenney endorsed him in January.

Lamb fell short of the state partys endorsement after campaigning hard for one.

Im proud to be endorsed by the Philadelphia Democrats, Lamb said in a statement. In countless conversations, they told me that Philadelphia is counting on us to win this race and break the gridlock on issues like gun violence, housing and schools.

READ MORE: Conor Lambs challenge: Build his name. Take down Fetterman. And do it all with less money.

Former Philadelphia Mayor John Street and his son, State Sen. Sharif Street, also endorsed Lamb on Tuesday. Sharif Street had previously considered running for Senate himself.

Conor Lamb has built a big coalition all over Pennsylvania, and Im glad to join it, Sharif Street said in a statement. Hes a fighter who knows what it takes to win against Republicans in November hes actually done it before.

Taken together, the endorsements are a notable snub of the hometown candidate, State Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta, who had also tried to court party insiders but has struggled to raise money. Its also a somewhat expected snub. Sharif Street, who is vice chair of the state Democratic Party and from North Philadelphia like Kenyatta, had bristled at Kenyattas Senate campaign.

The city party has often passed over Philadelphia candidates in endorsing for statewide races, including in 2020, when it backed Lambs uncle in his bid for auditor general.

The only endorsement that truly counts is the one from voters on Election Day, Kenyatta said in a statement. We know that every election that wards go their own way and were excited to know that many wards and committee people will be a part of our big coalition in May. I have never been the candidate of the establishment and that is not the path to winning this election.

READ MORE: Conor Lamb and John Fetterman are running like Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders

Kenyatta built some momentum early in the city with the backing of the big labor union SEIU and a coalition of progressive, younger City Council members. Brady spoke highly of Kenyatta but said his meager fund-raising and low standing in polls made many ward leaders skeptical of his prospects.

Malcolm did a good job but people didnt think Malcolm could win, Brady said. Thats the only problem with him. Hes well-received, we just didnt think the numbers were there. The money wasnt there.

Brady also said Kenyattas decision to run for Senate while also seeking reelection to his state House seat turned off some party activists.

Lamb, Kenyatta, and Fetterman all submitted signatures to get on the Democratic primary ballot, along with Philadelphia doctor Kevin Baumlin and Alex Khalil, a Jenkintown organizer and small business owner.

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Philly Democrats back Conor Lamb for Senate over the front-runner and the hometown candidate - The Philadelphia Inquirer

Why are House Democrats leaving Congress in a midterm year? Politics Weekly America podcast – The Guardian

This week, Volodymyr Zelenskiy addressed Congress, thanking them for their support so far, but imploring them to do more. He spoke to Joe Biden directly, as it seems its the White House, not Congress, that is hesitant about provoking Russia further. How the US responds to the war in Ukraine will influence voters at home when midterm elections take place in November. It will be a tough campaign for Biden, and yet many Democrats are retiring from the House instead of fighting for their seat.

Jonathan Freedland speaks to one of the Democrats choosing to retire. Congresswoman Brenda Lawrence shares her thoughts on the war in Ukraine, why she chose to leave office, and who in the Republican party worries her the most for 2024.

How to listen to podcasts: everything you need to know

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Why are House Democrats leaving Congress in a midterm year? Politics Weekly America podcast - The Guardian

Democrats anxious about 2022 believe they can run on Biden’s agenda – CBS News

Democratic Party officials nationwide are anxious about their prospects in this year's Congressional midterm elections, though they're hopeful about running on President Biden's agenda. They are also trying to capitalize on warmer views of his handling of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and negative views of former President Trump's praise of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Attendees at the Democratic National Committee's Winter Meeting in Washington, D.C., acknowledged the combination of factors ahead of them, namely the usual historical headwinds for the party in power and the rising cost of living caused by inflation and gas prices.

"It's not so much that we are afraid but we are anxious. We want to get moving because things change so quickly. Gas prices go up. Something good happens. Back and forth. We've got so many unpredictable things leading up to it," said Janet Bewley, the top Democrat in Wisconsin's Senate. "Everybody wants to work to get their voters identified and ready to be motivated."

As DNC members met in their first in-person gathering since the onset of the pandemic, they agree the party has to do more to amplify the direct impact of Mr. Biden's agenda and how it can help ease the rising cost of living.

In remarks to the party on Thursday, Mr. Biden argued Democrats can address inflation and high gas prices through pieces of his Build Back Better plan, after the broader bill fell apart in the Senate amid intra-party divisions.

"At a time when food and gas prices are rising, if you can lower other major costs for families, you can help their standard of living," he said, referencing the push to lower prescription drug prices and cost of child care.

He labeled the rising gas prices "Putin's price hikes at the pump" and said that "as painful as the price is today, the costs are going to be higher if we do not act now to deal with this tyrant."

DNC Chair Jamie Harrison also blamed Putin's invasion of Ukraine for the spiking gas prices and believes voters have made the same connection, blaming him instead of Mr. Biden.

He also accused Republicans of being "soft on Russia," citing former President Trump's praise of Putin and Congressman Madison Cawthorn's vilification of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

"We have the Republican Party, the former president of the United States, the last Republican President, who's talking about how this former KGB officer is a 'genius' and is 'savvy.' We have Madison Cawthorn who is denigrating the president of Ukraine," he said in an interview Thursday, referencing a video of the freshman GOP Congressman calling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a "thug."

On the money front, the DNC has kept pace with Republicans, raising over $161 million through January 2022, with $63 million cash on hand, while the Republican National Committee has brought in $171.6 million and has $51 million in the bank.

But Mr. Biden's approval rating has been declining in the last year, especially with independent voters. A CBS News poll released last Sunday showed a 43% approval rating, largely consistent with his numbers since November of 2021.

The poll showed a 46% approval rating for Mr. Biden's handling of Russia and Ukraine, slightly up from the 41% he got at the beginning of the conflict. The president is still underwater on the economy (62% disapproval rating) and inflation (69% disapproval rating).

"If I got worried every time somebody's approval numbers jumped up or down, I don't know if I would ever get out of bed," said Susan Swecker, chair of Virginia's Democratic Party. "Biden has done a lot of amazing work. He was handed over a bit of a mess quite frankly from the previous occupant so it's like, let's give him a chance."

But beyond Biden's declining approval rating and rising costs, some Democrats are concerned about how the party's national brand plays in more competitive and rural areas.

Anthony Flaccavento, of the Rural Urban Bridge Initiative in Virginia, said the party has an "image problem because of our own way of projecting who we are."

"The way we talk: we just say too much. We use too many damn words, they're too complex," he said.

Ken Martin, a DNC vice chair from Minnesota, referred to his father-in-law who voted for Trump twice as an example of voters who need more "hope" from the Democratic Party.

"He needs a champion, needs a sense that someone gives a damn," Martin said. "If they don't see us doing that, they won't vote for us...we're not going to be a national party if we're just a party of density and education."

At a House Democratic issues retreat in Philadelphia, New York Congressman and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Sean Patrick Maloney echoed the sentiment.

"We need to talk like real people and pass what I call the Maloney brothers test," said Maloney.

"If you go home for Thanksgiving and your brothers think you sound like a jerk [say] what your grade point average was, it doesn't matter to them. You have to show up, be a human being, and have a relationship with your voters," said Maloney, who has the daunting task of trying to hold onto the House; Republicans need only a net gain of five seats to flip it.

Republicans ridiculed and welcomed a Democratic campaign strategy that relies on Mr. Biden's agenda and record.

"As long as Democrats push Biden's failed agenda, they can expect to keep losing. Democrats up-and-down the ballot are in lockstep with Biden and will be held accountable for his failures in November," said RNC spokesperson Emma Vaughn.

Vice President Kamala Harris argued that 2020 voters "got what they ordered," touting everything from the infrastructure bill to the nomination of Kentaji Brown Jackson to the U.S. Supreme Court, and she urged them to remember that as they campaign.

"They took time from work. It was difficult. And a lot of what they demanded, they got. And so let's get out there, as we do, and remind them of that," she said in the final remarks of the conference Saturday.

Ellis Kim and Robert Costa contributed reporting.

Aaron Navarro is an associate producer for the political unit at CBS News, focusing on House and gubernatorial campaigns as well as the census and redistricting.

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Democrats anxious about 2022 believe they can run on Biden's agenda - CBS News