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Its one of the X factors that could, in theory, alter the contours of this years midterm elections: What does the Jan. 6 committee have in its pocket?

The bipartisan House investigation of the assault on the U.S. Capitol is entering a critical stage, as the panels vice chair, Representative Liz Cheney, Republican of Wyoming, put it this week and it is kicking up a lot of dust along the way.

On Monday, the committee voted to recommend that two onetime aides to former President Donald Trump, Peter Navarro and Dan Scavino, be held in contempt of Congress for refusing to comply with congressional subpoenas. Also Monday, a federal judge wrote that it was more likely than not that Trump had broken the law by trying to disrupt a joint session of Congress and conspiring to defraud the United States.

Investigators have identified a nearly eight-hour gap in Trumps call logs from Jan. 6 and are discussing whether to demand the former presidents mobile phone records. Theyre also looking into whether a Trump tweet from December 2020, in which he invited his supporters to swarm Washington on Jan. 6, constituted incitement. Lawmakers on the panel are constantly weighing the value of trying to gather additional information against the danger that the former president and his allies will bog them down in time-consuming litigation.

Were playing beat-the-clock here against Trumps inner coterie, Representative Jamie Raskin, Democrat of Maryland, told reporters this week.

The Justice Departments own inquiries are proceeding in parallel, and a grand jury has convened in Washington to investigate the planning of the pre-riot rallies. But that work is shrouded in mystery, and pressure is growing on Attorney General Merrick Garland to produce results. Federal law enforcement officials have arrested more than 775 people suspected of involvement in the Capitol riot, but they have yet to charge any member of Trumps inner circle with a crime.

As a political matter, Democrats hope the committees work will highlight what they say is the extremism of House Republicans, anchoring them to Trump. And though voters are currently preoccupied with inflation and the war in Ukraine, Democrats expect that a series of upcoming public hearings and reports about Jan. 6 will put Republicans anti-democratic behavior on display for the American people to judge.

Its going to be an enormous exclamation point on the fact that House Republicans are dangerous, said Simon Rosenberg, the president of NDN, a center-left think tank.

Republican Party leaders counter that the panel is seeking to criminalize legitimate political discourse, and have censured its two Republican members for their involvement in the Jan. 6 inquiry. This week, a lobbyist close to Representative Kevin McCarthy, the minority leader, took the extraordinary step of hosting a fund-raising event for Cheneys primary opponent, and more than 50 House Republicans attended the gathering.

But, ultimately, the Jan. 6 committee will be judged by whether Americans view its findings as authoritative, fair and comprehensible, said Garrett Graff, the author of a new history of the Watergate scandal. Recalling the disappointment many Democrats felt upon the unveiling of Robert Muellers spare, legalistic account of the dealings between Trumps 2016 campaign and Russia, Graff said it was important for lawmakers to grab the publics attention with a compelling narrative of the Jan. 6 events.

Congress can assign moral blame and moral responsibility in a way that Mueller couldnt and Garland cant, Graff said. I think its possible that the Jan. 6 committee can surprise us.

To try to make some sense of it all, we spoke with Luke Broadwater, a congressional reporter for The Times who has been covering the investigation for months. Our conversation, edited lightly for length and clarity:

Theres been a constant dribble of news about the House investigation. Where would you say the inquiry stands? Is it in the final stages?

I would say its in the third quarter, to use a sports metaphor. The committee has interviewed 800 witnesses, which is a ton, but there are probably at least 100 more people theyd like to talk to and some witnesses they want to re-interview.

And the people they havent met with include some of the most important: Mike Pence, Trumps personal lawyer Rudolph Giuliani and Ivanka Trump.

The committee is still shooting for public hearings in May, though I would not be surprised if those get pushed back again.

You wrote this week about the hourslong gap in the records of Trumps phone calls on the day of Jan. 6. Why are investigators so interested in that?

The committee is highly interested in Trumps activities the day of the Capitol riot, especially what he was doing for the 187 minutes during which he delayed making any statement to call off the violence. The committee has argued that his lack of action makes him culpable for the violence and sheds light into his mind-set.

But the call logs are blank for the duration of the riot, so that presents a challenge for investigators as they try to determine exactly whom Trump was talking to during that pivotal time.

This week, the panel heard from Jared Kushner, the former presidents son-in-law. Whats the holdup with the others you mentioned: Pence, Giuliani and Ivanka Trump?

Each case is different, but each witness has been engaged in negotiations with the committee. Two of Pences top aides have already testified, causing his team to argue, according to what Im told, that they have supplied the committee with plenty of testimony that alleviates the need for the former vice president to appear.

Giuliani has made clear that he does not intend to provide information against Trump, but he is considering providing information about his dealings with members of Congress, according to a person familiar with the negotiations. Ivanka Trump is also negotiating. Each of these is a sensitive dance, in which the committee wants to get information out of the witness without threatening him or her in a way that could lead to a contempt of Congress charge but no information.

Our colleagues wrote that Attorney General Merrick Garland is under growing political pressure to move more aggressively with the Justice Departments criminal inquiry. Is that a complaint you hear from House members, too?

Yes, constantly particularly with regard to the criminal contempt of Congress referral against Mark Meadows, Trumps final chief of staff. Representative Adam Schiff, Democrat of California, has encouraged Garland to move with alacrity against Meadows. And Representative Elaine Luria, Democrat of Virginia, made this statement this week: Attorney General Garland, do your job so that we can do ours.

That said, there are signs the Justice Department investigation has entered a new phase. A grand jury in Washington has recently issued subpoenas (one of which we were able to review) that seek information about people classified as V.I.P. attendees at Trumps Jan. 6 rally and about members of the executive and legislative branches who were involved in the planning or execution of any attempt to delay the certification of the 2020 election.

Justice Department widens inquiry. Federal prosecutors are said to have substantially widened their Jan. 6 investigationto examine the possible culpability of a broad range of pro-Trump figures involved in efforts to overturn the election. The investigation was initially focused on the rioters who had entered the Capitol.

Investigating Trump's actions. Evidence gathered by the Justice Department and House committee show how former President Donald J. Trumps Be there, willbe wild! tweetincited far-right militants ahead of Jan. 6, while call logsreveal how personally involved Mr. Trump was in his attempt to stay in office before and during the attack.

Judge says Trump likely committed crimes. In a court filing in a civil case, the Jan. 6 House committee laid out the crimes it believed Mr. Trump might have committed. The federal judge assigned to the case ruled that Mr. Trump most likely committed feloniesin trying to overturn the 2020 election.

Virginia Thomass text messages. In the weeks before the Capitol riot, Virginia Thomas, the wife of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, sent several textsimploring Mark Meadows, President Trumps chief of staff, to take steps to overturn the election.The Jan. 6 House committee is likely to seek an interview with Ms. Thomas, said those familiar with the matter.

You mentioned that the panel might hold public hearings as soon as May. What might those hearings look like, and what is the panel trying to accomplish?

The committee is cognizant that many voters have retrenched into partisan camps about Jan. 6. So it is trying to break through that barrier, to the extent thats possible. I would expect hearings at peak TV viewing time, perhaps even prime time, that try to clearly lay out the case of how Trump and his allies sought to overturn the 2020 election.

I would expect that the public will hear from experts who can shoot down claims of widespread electoral fraud and from officials who can testify about their firsthand experiences as Trump or his allies tried to pressure them to go along with the plan.

On Politics regularly features work by Times photographers. Heres what Jason Andrew told us about capturing the image above:

Being a photographer on Capitol Hill can, at times, feel like youre a hamster running in a wheel, photographing the same frames over and over again. Yet its this visual monotony that I love.

It forces me to be creative to look outside the box while moving away from the scrum of photographers who jockey for the right position, sometimes appearing to crawl on top of one another, only to take the same frame as their colleagues. I find that the best frames are usually made when Im away from the pack.

On Tuesday, Representative Don Young of Alaska, a Republican who died two weeks ago, was lying in state to honor his decades of service in Congress. As the House Sergeant at Arms and Capitol Police officers prepared for Youngs coffin to arrive, the officers stood still, in a style similar to the Capitols neo-Classical architecture.

When they all bowed their heads, I moved to the left of the other photographers so the people in my frame would appear in line with the columns, in their own layers, creating a visual separation from the people next to them. The photo is static and yet, for me, very interesting. Its one I could not have captured had I remained in front of the steps.

Thanks for reading. Well see you on Monday.

Blake & Leah

Is there anything you think were missing? Anything you want to see more of? Wed love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com.

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Democratic Hopes and Anxiety Rise Over the Jan. 6 Panel - The New York Times

Speaker Carl Heastie, who leads the New York State Assembly, seems to have a definite view concerning bail reform that appears to differ from that of the governor, Kathy Hochul.

A little background: the Democrats got their behinds kicked in the last election over the issue.

You will recall that the liberal contingent in the Democratic-led New York State legislature quite correctly passed legislation in an effort to equalize the way in which the bail system in the state treated suspects after arrest. Those who had resources could fork out the big bucks needed to get released from custody, while those without deep pockets had to languish in the pokey because they didnt have the money necessary to get out.

This became an issue in the last election when the Democrats who sponsored the so-called bail reform bill found out that they had lost some middle-class voters who thought that people released on bail were likely to go on and commit more crimes.

That led to some problems for the liberal Democrats and alienated some of the middle-class voters. In other words, the concept of bail reform was certainly correct in that it was philosophically right, but it led to political problems for the Democrats.

It shouldnt surprise anyone that the message was received by the battered Democrats who are now showing some signs of division. On one side are the liberals in the state legislature. They are correct in their assertions that the poor are more likely to have to stay in jail due to their inability to post bail. Meanwhile, the rich and middle-class voters want to be protected and have reacted strongly against idea of bail reform.

Never mind the statistical analysis that suggests that those released are not committing crimes at the level the critics of bail reform are suggesting. But hey, political reality is what people believe, correctly, or not.

This is where it gets interesting.

Governor Hochul, who is no fool, gets the message and starts to suggest that the baby should get split. If I am reading her words correctly, she thinks that dangerous folks should be kept in jail while the powerful Speaker, Carl Heastie, takes the politically and factually correct position that it isnt right for poor people to stay in custody just because they cant afford bail.

Obviously, Heastie has to listen to what the liberal Democrats in his conference are telling him while, like it or not, Governor Hochul knows which way they more conservative wind is blowing. It is clear that she sees the political danger here. If the Democrats continue to lose seats, their huge majority in both houses may be threatened and her own election prospects will be diminished by her endorsing this bail reform.

Since there is honor among politicians, I am sure that both Heastie and Hochul understand and honor each others positions. Let there be no mistake: the Heastie position is correct, so-called bail reform is a worthy idea. It is just one more piece of proof that the political game is loaded in favor of those with money. As a person of color, Heastie knows that and understands what injustice is all about.

So what will happen?

Obviously, the governor has no cards to play since she cant make the legislature do what they dont want to do. The Republicans and conservatives have found a powerful card to play here. They are winning elections based on this split and are unlikely to change positions now. They think that have discovered political gold and will play the bail reform card to the hilt. There may be an agreement between the Speaker and the Governor to allow for the difference of opinion.

The Speaker is right, and the governor knows what to do to win an upcoming election.

Alan Chartock is professor emeritus at the State University of New York, publisher of the Legislative Gazette and president and CEO of the WAMC Northeast Public Radio Network. Readers can email him at alan@wamc.org.

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Alan Chartocks The Capitol Connection: Democrats must find bail reform compromise - The Saratogian

For the first time ever, nonaffiliated voters in Oregon outnumber Democrats, having long ago outdistanced Republicans.

That data comes from March voter registration figures posted by the Oregon Secretary of States Office.

March Voter Registration

Nonaffiliated voters have exploded in number since the Oregons Motor Voter law went into effect in January 2016. In the month prior, December 2015, there were 825,282 registered Democrats, 642,552 Republicans, 527,302 nonaffiliated voters, and just 2,169,258 voters total.

So in the past six years, Oregon has added nearly 800,000 new voters, almost 500,000 of whom are not registered with any party.

Ed Doyle, president of a group called Oregon Open Primaries, says the takeaway is that the May partisan primaries, which are taxpayer funded, should be open to all voters, not just Democrats and Republicans, and to all candidates. (Non-affiliated and smaller party voters can still vote in non-partisan races in May.)

It is unconscionable that over 34% of the electorate is barred from voting in publicly funded primary elections, Doyle said in a statement. It is high time Oregon modernizes its primary system to allow all registered voters to vote and all qualified candidates to compete.

Doyles group hopes to put an open primary measure on the November general election ballot. Two previous attempts to open Oregons primaries failed in past decades. Most recently, Measure 90 got trounced 68% to 32% in 2014.

Proponents say that in addition to allowing greater voter participation, open primaries should moderate the extremism for which partisan primaries are known. More than 20 states have at least some open primaries.

Two of Oregons neighbors, California and Washington, hold top-two primaries in which all candidates for an office appear on the ballot and the two top vote getters, regardless of party, move to the general election.

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Nonaffiliated Oregon Voters Now Outnumber Democrats and Republicans for the First Time - Willamette Week

NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!

Author and Fox News contributor Douglas Murray joined "Jesse Watters Primetime" Friday to explain the Democrats' energy agenda and why they have "mapped out the future" to be electric.

DOUGLAS MURRAY: What's happening in California could be all of our future. It's just amazing, isn't it, the way the Democrats do this? Remember, at the beginning of the coronavirus, the Democrats and the World Economic Forum and all these bodies said, "This is a great opportunity. This is a great opportunity to increase our reliance on green energy. Now Russia invades Ukraine. This is a great opportunity. Guys, we could increase our reliance on green energy."

How do they manage this? You can do the same thing with a virus. You can do the same thing with Russia invading Ukraine, strangely. It's all a vindication of Democrat policies of the kind that's rolled out in California.

WATCH FULL VIDEO HERE:

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Have Democrats mapped out the future of energy? - Fox News

When Senator Joe Manchin announced in December that he would not support the Build Back Better Act, House progressives immediately got to work. As the Congressional Progressive Caucus continued to lobby for passing a social spending package, its members also started crafting a list of potential executive orders that Biden could sign to advance Democrats policy agenda.

That list was released in mid-March after months of deliberations, and it outlines a specific strategy for Biden to combat the climate crisis and lower costs for American families with the flick of his pen.

The suggestions from the CPC demonstrate the increasing pressure that Biden faces from progressive Democrats to take more decisive action before the midterm elections in November, where many in his party fear they could get badly beaten.

Progressives warn that, if Biden does not start signing more executive orders, Democrats failure to follow through on many of their campaign promises will result in severely depressed voter turnout among their supporters in November, probably allowing Republicans to regain control of the House and the Senate.

If such a thing were to happen, it would represent a perhaps crippling blow to Bidens first term and cement an unlikely recovery for a Republican party still beholden to its Trumpist base and where Donald Trump himself is considering a 2024 White House campaign.

The CPCs list of possible orders addresses everything from the climate crisis to immigration reform and healthcare costs, covering a broad array of issues that affect a large swath of the Democratic coalition.

The suggestions include expanding Affordable Care Act insurance coverage for 5.1 million families and lowering the costs of essential drugs like insulin. To help families budgets, the CPC is also calling for canceling federal student loan debt and expanding eligibility for overtime pay. On the issue of the climate crisis, the list includes an order to declare a national climate emergency and reinstate a ban on US crude oil exports.

We have made important and significant progress as Democrats in the first year of the Biden presidency, the CPC chair, Pramila Jayapal, said. But our work is far from done. We have an ambitious agenda, and we want to make sure we continue building on this progress.

The CPC is not alone in turning its attention to the power of the executive pen, as other progressive elements of the Democratic party urge decisive action from Biden.

Members of the Congressional Black Caucus have held meetings recently to discuss executive orders Biden could sign to advance voting rights and criminal justice reform. The Congressional Hispanic Caucus also expects to soon release its own suggestions for executive orders aimed at reforming the US immigration system, and the Congressional Asian Pacific American Caucus is similarly working on a letter to the White House about advancing its policy priorities.

Progressive groups have been vocal advocates for Biden expanding his use of executive orders. Dozens of grassroots organizations consulted with the CPC as it crafted its list, and those groups have underscored the urgency of Biden signing the suggested orders, particularly as Democrats look ahead to the midterms.

I think young people came out in record numbers in 2020 because they felt that Democrats promised an alternative to what weve lived through our entire lives. Were burdened by a planet in a state of emergency; we are burdened by crushing student loan debt, said John Paul Mejia, chief spokesperson for the climate group Sunrise Movement, which worked with the CPC.

Mejia argued that the executive orders represent Democrats best opportunity to motivate young voters enough to show up in November.

If young people want to be mobilized and energized and instilled with any form of inspiration to go out to the polls, I think President Bidens going to really have to take executive action and deliver as much as he can as fast as he can, Mejia said.

The White House seems to be listening to progressives warnings. The Intercept reported on Thursday that the Biden administration is drafting an executive order to bolster manufacturing of clean energy technologies, a suggestion that was included in the CPCs list.

Despite the recent focus on executive action, progressives are careful to emphasize that they are not giving up on legislative efforts to enact Bidens agenda.

Carol Joyner, director of the labor project for working families at Family Values @ Work, said the CPC list was very strong but not a substitute for passing some version of the Build Back Better Act. After all, some crucial portions of the original $1.7tn spending package including the expanded child tax credit and a national paid leave program almost certainly cannot be enacted via executive action.

This is a fair start, and it reflects the limitations of what you can do and accomplish under executive order. However, we do know that the care infrastructure needs to be established and expanded in this country in order to support working people, Joyner said. That type of legislation is whats going to have a more profound impact on everyone.

Senate Democrats continue to hold hearings on specific portions of Bidens Build Back Better agenda, with the hope of crafting a new version of the bill that can attract Manchins support. In the past week alone, Senate committees have held hearings on lowering childcare costs, increasing homecare services to seniors and investing in clean energy. Manchin has also restarted negotiations with fellow Democrats with the climate portions of the Build Back Better Act, according to the Washington Post.

I feel cautiously optimistic, Mejia said of the possibility of getting a spending package passed. It would be stupid for Democrats not to pass climate provisions of Build Back Better at a time when they not only face the urgent timeline of a climate emergency, but also when young people are losing hope in the party.

But progressives have been burned by Manchin before, which is why they say Biden needs to pursue a two-prong strategy of signing executive orders while simultaneously trying to advance legislation.

Im proud of us for pivoting but also being able to keep both tracks moving around a legislative solution and executive action solution, said Natalia Salgado, director of federal affairs for the Working Families party. The progressive movement in general is made up of a lot of organizers. And if youre an organizer, one of the main lessons you learn at the beginning of your career is that theres a couple ways to skin a cat.

One of the downsides of relying on executive orders is that they can be easily reversed whenever Republicans regain control of the White House. In the 14 months since he took office, Biden has already signed 85 executive orders. Many of them reversed Donald Trumps policies on immigration, the climate crisis and the coronavirus pandemic. A future Republican president could do the same.

But progressives remain convinced that executive orders are one of Bidens best options to deliver immediate relief to the young Americans, women and people of color who helped get him elected.

I dont think we should be concerned about what happens down the road. Right now, President Biden has the pen, Joyner said. And if he can pass executive orders that support working people and help create jobs and help to rebuild our economy and make it stronger and more equitable, then he should do it.

Read more from the original source:
Progressives push Biden to act with Democrats midterm hopes in balance - The Guardian