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Democrats know that Republican attacks on abortion rights will be central to their efforts to reelect Joe Biden and regain full control of Congress in 2024.

And for good reason Democrats won competitive midterm races last fall while running on protecting reproductive freedom. Last month, in another high-stakes election in Wisconsin, the judicial candidate who staunchly supported abortion rights beat her anti-abortion opponent by 11 points.

Polls conducted over the last few months indicate that abortion remains top of mind for voters, who seem to have grown even more supportive of abortion rights than they were before the Dobbs v. Jackson decision overturned the constitutional right to an abortion last June.

I dont think Democrats have fully processed that this country is now 10 to 15 percent more pro-choice than it was before Dobbs in state after state and national data, pollster Celinda Lake said recently.

But there is one worrying sign for Democrats in the polling data. Over the past two weeks, for example, two new national polls and data from three focus groups conducted in swing states (Ohio, North Carolina, and Michigan) indicated that significant numbers of independent voters remain confused and skeptical about where Republicans and Democrats stand on protecting abortion rights. The upside for Democrats is they may have substantial room to grow with these voters.

One survey, conducted in mid-April by Marist Poll in partnership with NPR and PBS NewsHour, found 38 percent of independent voters think neither Democrats nor Republicans handle the abortion issue well, compared to just 10 percent of Democratic voters and 21 percent of Republican voters who felt the same. And when the progressive polling group Navigator asked voters in April what they thought came closest to the Democratic Partys position on abortion, 34 percent of independents said they didnt know enough to say, compared to just 9 percent of Democrats and 11 percent of Republicans.

These gaps are significant, as most US adults self-identify as independent voters 41 percent, according to Gallup, compared to 28 percent of adults who ID as Republican and 28 percent as Democrat. Since 2009, independent identification has grown and reached levels not seen before, Gallup reported this year.

The surveys come as some abortion rights activists continue to raise frustrations with the president for what they see as his lackluster support for keeping abortion legal. While the Biden administration has done much to defend abortion rights since the Supreme Court issued its ruling last summer, the president himself has struggled to talk about abortion, relying largely on surrogates and euphemisms like protect womens health care and a womans right to choose. In Bidens recently released reelection launch video, he did not say abortion himself though a woman was featured holding an abortion is healthcare protest sign. In February, Biden used the word abortion explicitly for the first time in a State of the Union address, though many activists were still upset he devoted just four sentences to the topic, and almost an hour into his speech. It was, to be blunt, offensive, feminist writer Jessica Valenti said after.

The Biden administration did not return a request for comment.

Bryan Bennett, a pollster with Navigator, said independents broadly report pro-choice attitudes, so the two new surveys suggest Biden and Democrats have a real opportunity to talk more and crystallize where they stand on abortion.

Bennett noted that among independent women, the gaps were even higher, with 43 percent in their latest survey saying they werent sure what Democrats position on abortion was. Focusing on that, and trying to reach that 34 percent of independents who dont have a position, represents a real chance to drive that [pro-abortion rights] advantage, he said.

A majority of independent voters back abortion rights, though public opinion research indicates there may be some notable differences between their views and those of self-identified Democrats. For example, while a post-Dobbs Navigator survey found 84 percent of Democrats identified as pro-choice, the pollsters found just 54 percent of independents did. Thirty percent of independents in the same survey identified as pro-life, compared to 11 percent of Democrats.

Heading into the 2022 midterms, pollsters found abortion rights to be a significantly motivating issue for independent voters, though again less motivating than for Democrats. A quarter of independents told Navigator the Dobbs decision made them much more motivated to vote in November, compared to 56 percent of Democrats. And 41 percent of independents told KFF the decision made them more motivated to vote, compared to 64 percent of Democrats. A Wall Street Journal poll found 9 percent of independents ranked the Supreme Court ruling as the top issue among five choices motivating them to vote, compared with 77 percent of Democrats.

In days immediately following the midterms, NARAL Pro-Choice America led exit surveys of voters in battleground states and found that while Democrats ranked abortion a top priority for Congress and the White House, independents did not.

Still, independents definitely reported broad pro-choice attitudes in NARALs exit survey, with 54 percent saying theyd be less likely to support Republicans if they tried to pass more abortion bans, and 74 percent of independents said women and their doctors should make decisions about abortion, not politicians.

When asked about the Marist/NPR survey finding high levels of distrust among independents for both Democrats and Republicans, Angela Vasquez-Giroux, NARALs vice president of research, noted that many voters support abortion access because they distrust politicians generally. Voters dont want politicians involved in their personal freedoms and personal medical decisions, she told Vox.

In late April, Navigator hosted three focus groups with women voters to learn more about how abortion issues continue to motivate Americans politically. The participants in Ohio and North Carolina were suburban women who identified as either weak Democrats, independents, or weak Republicans; the participants in Michigan were women of color who identified as either strong Democrats, weak Democrats, or independents.

Each group had between seven and nine participants, and all had previously stated they either support the right to abortion or do not believe the government should prevent access to abortion even if they are personally against it. While these are tiny samples, researchers say the qualitative data from a focus group helps clarify voter beliefs and signals questions to more rigorously study in the future.

Vox reviewed video footage and transcripts from the three focus groups and found in each some women who support abortion rights had significant trouble identifying Democrats and Republicans stances on abortion.

I think Democrats are pro-life and Republicans are against it, said one participant in Ohio, when asked what Democrats and Republicans believe on abortion.

In Michigan, a woman was asked how the two parties differ on abortion and how she would describe each partys position.

Im not sure, the woman answered. I really havent basically heard anything about which party is leaning toward it and which one isnt. When the focus group moderator pressed her to guess, she answered: If I had to guess, I would say Democrat would probably be against it and Republican probably would be for it.

In North Carolina, a participant said she wasnt sure where the parties stand on abortion and had been surprised Roe v. Wade was overturned under a Democrat.

Okay, but did Joe Biden have a say in whether or not it was overturned? the focus group moderator asked.

No, but he helped get the Supreme judges where they are. The moderator then informed the woman that the most recent judges came in under Donald Trump.

Confusion among independents has been reflected in some other polling data. For example, in a survey conducted in the two weeks after Dobbs, 23 percent of independents said they dont know if abortion rights were at risk in their state, compared to just 5 percent of Democrats who said the same. Likewise, while a majority of independents said in the same survey they would support a nationwide law that protects the right of a woman to have an abortion, 18 percent of independents said they werent sure either way, suggesting there might be more need to clarify for voters what that means.

One Democratic pollster, speaking on background, said the data about independents was great to have and provides actionable information for campaigns ahead of 2024.

Other leaders have been more hesitant to suggest Democrats could benefit from new tactics to target pro-choice independents saying the recent election results in Democrats favor speak for themselves.

Time and time again, whether it was the 2022 midterms, ballot initiatives, or special elections in Virginia and Wisconsin, voters continue to prove that they will support the candidate who will protect their reproductive freedom, said Jenny Lawson, the vice president of organizing and electoral campaigns at Planned Parenthood Action Fund. The data is clear and we have the receipts: Anti-abortion politicians are on the losing side of the issue.

Vasquez-Giroux of NARAL also defended Bidens rhetoric. I think the president is doing a pretty good job of being clear about where he stands, and [regarding] the reelection video taking one example out is not fully representative, she said. And you do have [Vice President] Kamala Harris out on the road talking about abortion. It should be clear where the administration stands.

See original here:
Can Democrats convince independent voters theyll protect abortion rights? - Vox.com

When he ran for president a second time in 1968 on the American Independent Party ticket, Alabama Gov. George Wallace said, Theres not a dimes worth of difference between the Democrat and Republican parties.

Granted that Wallace, who had been a Democrat, was attempting to attract votes for that nascent party, but his statement may have found new life in Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, a former Democrat and now an independent.

Appearing last Sunday on Face the Nation, Sinema referenced the final speech her predecessor, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., gave on the Senate floor in 2018 in which he lamented the partisanship that has overtaken Congress: he said that folks were more interested in ensuring that the other party lost or prevented the other party from getting a win. And then they were no longer focused on the much more inspiring and more meaningful work of bringing people together, people of good faith to actually solve problems and improve lives of the people that we serve in our country.

We have heard that lament before, but actually working together requires agreement on what the problems are and a willingness to actually solve them instead of bludgeoning members of the other party.

Sinema went a step further in explaining the extreme partisanship: Theyve moved away from that center of working together and finding that common ground and theyre going towards the fringes because thats where the money is, and thats where the attention is, and thats where the likes on Twitter are, and thats where you get the clicks and the accolades. And theres an incentive to continue to say things that are not true and not accurate.

Asked why she didnt switch to the Republican Party from the Democratic Party, Sinema laughed and said, you dont go from one broken party to another.

Her solution is a familiar one that needs more adherents. Again referring to McCains final Senate speech, she said: he spoke about the importance of getting rid of the uninspiring activities you see now of partisanship and restoring the inspiring activity of working together.

So how do we fix this in our country? Its not that difficult. Its all of us choosing to behave with that same level of dignity, of respect for each other of honor, refusing to do that uninspiring activity of just trying to prevent the other from a win, and instead focusing on what can we do to bring our country together and demonstrate that were serving them.

With Title 42 expiring today, which is expected to bring in a new wave of migrants, Sinema blames not only the Biden administration for failing to come up with a plan, but also both political parties: both parties have benefited for decades by not solving this challenge.

Perhaps thats why the fastest growing voter group is independents, though they usually end up voting for one party or the other on Election Day.

Its going to take more than one senator to make the case that our system of elections and government are broken. Returning to the guardrails provided in the Constitution would solve a lot of problems, but barring that unlikely occurrence, it is up to We the people to make changes by voting for candidates who are committed to actually addressing and solving the growing number of problems that confront us.

Otherwise, George Wallace will be seen as a prophet because there is increasingly not a dimes worth of difference between the two parties when it comes to doing what is best for the nation.

Cal Thomas is a syndicated columnist.

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Cal Thomas: Democrats and Republicans not a dime's worth of ... - TribLIVE

Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia at the US Capitol in June 2021. Caroline Brehman/CQ-Roll Call via Getty Images

Congress still can't agree on a solution to save the country from a catastrophic default that could happen in less than a month, but there are some paths to avoid that outcome and avoid the congressional drama that comes with it.

But Democrats aren't so sure a debt ceiling solution is viable outside of Congress.

Since January, both parties have been sparring over the best approach to raise the debt ceiling and ensure the US can pay its bills before the country defaults, which Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said could happen as early as June 1.

While Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy recently passed a bill that would raise the debt ceiling through March 2024, it was accompanied by over $4.5 trillion in spending cuts. President Joe Biden and Democrats have been adamant that raising the debt ceiling should be a bipartisan and clean increase, with no cuts attached, and Biden vowed to veto McCarthy's bill should it make it to his desk.

Biden even met with McCarthy and other top congressional leaders on Monday to discuss raising the debt ceiling, but McCarthy emerged from the meeting telling reporters that there was not "any new movement" on the issue.

This means that there is a severe time crunch for Congress to come to an agreement in the next few weeks, or else the country will hurdle into an unprecedented and devastating default. But Congress isn't necessarily required to avoid that outcome.

As Insider has previously reported, there are a few options on the table to get around the debt ceiling crisis, like minting a $1 trillion platinum coin or invoking a clause in the 14th amendment. The coin takes an advantage of an obscure law that would allow the Treasury to deposit aplatinum coin of any denomination into the Federal Reserve, allowing the country to effectively pay its debts. The 14th amendment, on the other hand, contains a clause that could declare the debt ceiling unconstitutional and get rid of it forever.

With a default inching closer by the day, those two options have been increasingly floated among lawmakers but some of them aren't so sure they would solve the problem.

Insider asked some Democratic senators what they thought of minting a coin or using the 14th amendment to get around the debt ceiling crisis. None of them were thrilled with the ideas.

"It would be better if Congress did the job and didn't make the president try something that hasn't been done before," Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine said of the 14th amendment. "I've heard legal arguments on both sides, but the right answer is for Congress just to live up to its responsibilities."

Sen. Ron Wyden, top lawmaker on the Senate Finance Committee, said that when it comes to the 14th amendment, "I'm not there yet. Clearly, it keeps coming at us with the prospect of default."

Minting a coin had an even less enthusiastic response. On going that route, Kaine said that he "would not recommend it and I have never heard that he's considered it," referring to Biden. Montana Sen. Jon Tester also told reporters last week that considering the platinum coin is "beyond my paygrade and my mental capacity to figure out how we can make a coin that gets us beyond this, but what the hell."

The Democrats Insider spoke to broadly seemed to believe that raising the debt ceiling and avoiding a default has been, and should continue to be, Congress' job.

"I think we should do our job," Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy told Insider. "I think we should not default on our debt. Congress should do the job that we've, without exception up until this point, done."

Biden and Yellen have also expressed concerns with a debt ceiling solution that does not involve Congress. After meeting with lawmakers on Tuesday to discuss the issue, Biden told reporters that he has been "considering" the 14th amendment to get around the debt ceiling, "but the problem is it would have to be litigated."

He added that he doesn't think the 14th amendment "solves our problem now. I think that only solves your problem once the court has ruled that it does apply for future endeavors."

Yellen also said at a new conference in Japan on Wednesday that "it's legally questionable whether or not that's a viable strategy," referring to the 14th amendment. Even McCarthy opposed going that route, telling reporters on Tuesday that "if you're the leader of the free world, you're the only president, and you're going to go to the 14th amendment to look at something like that, I would think you're kind of a failure of working with people across the sides of the aisle or working with your own party to get something done."

Biden is set to meet with the top four congressional leaders again on Friday, and until then, Democrats are still maintaining that both sides of the aisle should come together to reach a solution.

"I think that default would be catastrophic for the US and the world economy and it is deeply irresponsible to threaten financial cataclysm as a legislative tactic," Georgia Sen. Jon Ossof told Insider.

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Debt ceiling crisis: Democrats unsure of using $1 trillion coin, 14th amendment - Business Insider

Bidens industrial and climate policies are crudely protectionist; they have provoked mass outrage from foreign governments. Biden joins Donald Trump in undermining the open trade regime that their predecessors from both parties worked for decades to build.

So says Dylan Matthews of Vox. To help make the case, Matthews relies on Kimberly Clausing, a former Treasury official, now out of government and teaching at UCLA Law School.

The conversation promotes and echoes a 2019 book by Clausing, Open: The Progressive Case for Free Trade, Immigration, and Global Capital, which was also blurbed by Larry Summers. At Treasury, where she was a senior economist, Clausing did good work on global tax evasion, but was known as a traditionalist on trade.

More from Robert Kuttner

The Matthews-Clausing dialogue hauls out discredited clichs about the efficiency of free trade, as well as misrepresenting the continuity between Bidens policies and Trumps.

Trump levied 25 percent across-the-board tariffs on most Chinese exports, on the ground that the entire Chinese economic system was riddled with subsidies, dumping, and cheap state-directed capital.

This sensible policy, created by Trumps one good appointee, U.S. trade rep Robert Lighthizer, was bundled with Trumps own ugly nativism. Biden has kept the tariffs but pursued a much more nuanced set of other policies stripped of the China-bashing.

Both Matthews and Clausing gloss over the fact that Chinas economic system is anything but free-market, and thus makes a mockery of the supposed free-trade regime that they fault Biden for not defending. Instead, they both blame the U.S. for adding to bilateral tensions. Clausing calls on the U.S. to join the thoroughly discredited Trans-Pacific Partnership, which was blocked by Congress as a series of sweetheart corporate deals masquerading as China policy.

The dialogue also uses one straw man after another. I wonder if the Buy America stuff will even work on its own terms, says Matthews. Maybe we do bring manufacturing back, but we dont bring jobs because its a highly automated industry now.

Clausing heartily agrees. Its kind of a fools errand to think that youre going to get a lot of manufacturing jobs out of all this CHIPS money and all this steel protection.

But the point of CHIPS was never to generate massive numbers of jobs but to get the U.S. back in the game in cutting-edge technology. And in fact, when all the infrastructure, construction, and production jobs are added up, the job gains will likely be in the millions.

Last month, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan delivered a masterful speech disavowing the neoliberal set of ideas that championed tax cutting and deregulation, privatization over public action, and trade liberalization as an end in itself.

But the neoliberal zombies live on, fighting a rearguard action to resurrect the strategy of corporate globalismthat so clearly abandoned Americas working families, enriched billionaires, and paved the way for Trump.

Originally posted here:
Vox and the Undertow of Corporate Democrats - The American Prospect

The move marks an early attempt to gain the high ground after Republicans last year seized on the states bail laws as evidence Democrats are weak on crime, fueling embarrassing losses for House Democrats in New York. The governors new strategy could shape next years House races, and maybe even control of Congress. But it could also prove a tough and complicated sell to voters.

The new law will give judges greater authority to decide whether an individual can be held on bail. The tweaks mark, to the dismay of liberals, a third round of rollbacks of progressive bail laws Democrats passed in 2019.

Hochuls team realized too late in the midterm cycle that public safety and the economy not abortion rights were animating New York voters. The result was the closest governors race since 1994, and Democrats were swept out of all four House seats on Long Island, as well as battleground races in the Hudson Valley.

The blame landed squarely on New York Democrats and especially Hochul, a messaging mishap that even former Speaker Nancy Pelosi said state leaders should have recognized earlier.

Last year's race for governor in New York between Republican Lee Zeldin and Democrat Kathy Hochul focused heavily on the state's bail laws and crime, helping Republicans up and down the ballot.|Mary Altaffer/AP Photo

Former GOP Rep. Lee Zeldins gubernatorial campaign focused on rising crime rates in big New York cities, and he consistently blamed the bail laws for permitting dangerous individuals to walk free.

Democrats attempted to argue that there is little evidence linking crime spikes to New Yorks bail laws and pointed to larger, national crime trends that were influenced by the pandemic. But Zeldin and GOP House candidates successfully used the issue to gain ground in the critical New York City suburbs.

Hochul held up the state budget for nine days last year to get a handful of bail changes. But then she didnt effectively promote the tougher laws during the campaign.

She is trying not to make the same mistake twice.

So Hochuls budget, the first of her first full term, revolved around addressing those critiques; she delayed budget negotiations for weeks and sacrificed a deal on her other major initiatives, like a broad housing plan she wanted, in order to push reluctant Democrats to once again open talks on bail. She was backed up by Adams.

I say over and over again that there are many rivers that feed the sea of violence, and we have to dam each river, and we damned one during this process, Adams said Wednesday on WABC Radio.

The ultimate deal still left many unhappy. It did not go as far as Republicans, some moderates and even Adams wanted. Hochul has resisted backing a dangerousness standard for even greater judicial discretion that has been used by other states that have successfully overhauled bail laws.

The governor is going to claim a win for public safety even though the law expressly prohibits judges from taking a defendants dangerousness into account during the pretrial process, Albany-area Republican Sen. Jake Ashby said in a statement during budget votes last week. If she tries to spin that as judicial discretion, she will be embracing a level of shamelessness previously reserved only for her predecessor.

Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, too, brushed off the changes as inconsequential in the states fight against crime during his podcast Thursday. Cuomo, a Democrat who cruised to three terms before resigning in 2021 over sexual harassment allegations, said he personally would have sought a broader criminal justice deal.

I dont think anyone won anything. The governor loses, Cuomo said. The answer was not bail reform.

New York City Mayor Eric Adams and Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg (center) join New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) for state budget-related announcements.|Michael Appleton/Mayoral Photography Office

The changes, for example, did not include adjustments to discovery laws measures also passed in 2019 outlining how and when prosecutors hand over case material despite pushes from progressive prosecutors who say those laws also need to be fixed to prevent cases from being tossed on technical grounds.

Republicans wont be letting up on attacking Democrats on crime, state GOP chair Ed Cox said. Democrats are not going to be able to hide on this issue in 2024 when all 26 House seats will be on the ballot, he said.

Kathy Hochul continues to have her head in the sand on crime, he said in a statement. The changes made in her budget are just window dressing.

The amendments go too far for the Legislatures progressive caucuses, which say such adjustment could lead to more poor, mostly minority suspects being held on bail the reason the laws were changed in the first place.

Hochul struggled to build progressive enthusiasm for her candidacy last year, and the new changes may not help her do so in the future.

The governors effort to decimate bail wasnt driven by facts. It was driven by fear mongering, headlines, political expediency and it was reacting to a far-right strategy to weaponize racism, Assemblymember Latrice Walker (D-Brooklyn) said during the budget debate.

They is also a policy gamble. Researchers have said Hochuls measures are not the strongest way to address specific issues of recidivism and the broader issue of public safety.

The Brennan Center for Justice at NYU School of Law was disappointed by the Legislatures continued focus on revising bail reform to the exclusion of other policies that can make our communities safer, senior counsel Ames Grawert said in a statement.

In response, Hochul said the budget also includes more money for gun violence prevention, mental health support and pay bumps for public defenders.

Now shell have to better sell her plan to skeptical voters.

Democrats will be able to say they took significant steps toward improving the safety of New Yorkers, while not going back on reforms that were necessary, Hochul told reporters.

And we have to show that we struck the right balance.

Link:
New York Democrats lost the crime debate. They want a redo. - POLITICO